IDC: Apple's iPhone sheds marketshare as smartphones out-ship feature phones for first time

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 71
    saareksaarek Posts: 1,123member
    The iPhone has become a bit boring. There hasn't been a significant (in terms of looks) redesign since the iPhone 4. iOS is looking dated, it's not that it lacks features but it's a dated mess style wise.

    Now, with Jonny in charge of iOS I expect some worthy updates along with a consistent style.

    The iPhone itself will probably need to wait until the iPhone 6 to get a worthy style update.

    Other handset makers such as HTC are catching up to the quality of the iPhone & so standing still looks wise won't cut it anymore.

    Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying that the iPhone is doomed, quite the opposite, but they do need to get a move on.
  • Reply 22 of 71
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member


    Apple fans... better prepare yourself for plenty more bad news like this in the coming months.


     


    This report, alone, will result in dozens of "Apple crashing/tumbling/stumbling..etc" headlines. Followed by a flood of delirious anti-Apple comments. The whole process will repeat itself, in a few days, when Gartner release their smartphone figures.


     


    On the smartphone front, there might be a few more quarters like this. Let's see if Apple's iPhone strategy changes.


     


    On the tablet front Q2 should be interesting. Last year Apple launched the 'New' iPad in March and sold a record 17 million in Q2 2012. This year... no iPad launch (so far) and even with the iPad mini, there is a possibility that iPad sales might be lower. Headline writers licking their lips... some commenters actually seeking medical help due to orgasm overload.


     


    Let the games begin!

  • Reply 23 of 71
    Everyone needs to remember when comparing to this quarter last year, there was an iPhone launch in q1 2012 in China etc.. which was pushed forward and didn't occur in q1 2013. that launch sold 5 million iPhones in a single weekend not to mention the weeks immediately after.
  • Reply 24 of 71
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,285member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by GTR View Post



    This just in:



    Ferrari are crap because they sold less units than Ford.





     


    Stupid analogy.


     


    1) Ferraris are much more expensive than Fords. Much. 100-100% more. Not 40% more. 


    2) iOS is a platform and like the Mac OS, it needs to have a viable platform to compete.


     


    When Blackberry was falling in marketshare and Apple was growing, nobody made these points.

  • Reply 25 of 71
    igrivigriv Posts: 1,177member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post





    Did you even bother to read the pap that passes off for an explanation of 'methodology' you linked to?



    Care to explain, based in your reading of it, how they estimate the numbers? If sampling, where are the error bands? Why and how do they confound actuals (Apple) with estimates (non-Apple)? Do they validate their estimates with actuals (using, e.g., Apple's data) and if so what are the results? If the validation is good, why do they use actuals rather than estimates for Apple?



    I could go on, but you get the idea....


     


    Yes, actually I did read it. There is a lot of the usual fluff, but they do say that they do surveys of both the vendors and the channel. As pointed out elsewhere in this thread, the relevant aspect is that they have presumably built up a solid track record, and their numbers are trusted, even by Apple itself. In any case, it does not take fancy methodology to tell that Apple's market share is dropping: they are guiding top line down in a growing market, while not (as far as I know) drastically dropping prices.

  • Reply 26 of 71
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by saarek View Post

    The iPhone has become a bit boring.


     


    Nope. Rules #11 & 28.






    There hasn't been a significant (in terms of looks) redesign since the iPhone 4.





    Have you looked at the iPhone since the iPhone 4? Rule #9.






    iOS is looking dated, it's not that it lacks features but it's a dated mess style wise.



     


    Nope. Rules #12 & 28.






    …I expect…



     


    Rules #13 & 15.





    Other handset makers such as HTC are catching up…


     


    Interesting. I don't have a 'catching up' rule yet. That's surprising, given the number of times people have spewed it.






    …so standing still looks wise won't cut it anymore.



     


    I'd say a mix of Rules #9, 10, 11, & 12 here.






    I'm not saying that the iPhone is doomed…





    Except that's exactly what you're saying. Rule #1.






    …but they do need to get a move on



     


    "I'm not saying it, but I'm saying it." Come on.


     


    If you wanted to troll, you could have just linked to the Rules of the Troll list since you were too lazy to use arguments that weren't on it anyway.

  • Reply 27 of 71
    gtrgtr Posts: 3,231member
    asdasd wrote: »

    1) Ferraris are much more expensive than Fords. Much. 100-100% more. Not 40% more. 
    2) iOS is a platform and like the Mac OS, it needs to have a viable platform to compete.

    When Blackberry was falling in marketshare and Apple was growing, nobody made these points.

    1. I see the example of a superior device selling less units than an average device was lost on you.
    2. Who said anything about iOS, Mac, Blackberry, or Apple?

    ;)
  • Reply 28 of 71
    gtrgtr Posts: 3,231member
    Nope. Rules #11 & 28.


    Have you looked at the iPhone since the iPhone 4? Rule #9.

    Nope. Rules #12 & 28.

    Rules #13 & 15.

    Interesting. I don't have a 'catching up' rule yet. That's surprising, given the number of times people have spewed it.

    I'd say a mix of Rules #9, 10, 11, & 12 here.


    Except that's exactly what you're saying. Rule #1.

    "I'm not saying it, but I'm saying it." Come on.

    If you wanted to troll, you could have just linked to the Rules of the Troll list since you were too lazy to use arguments that weren't on it anyway.

    ...and DO NOT talk about Fight Club!
  • Reply 29 of 71
    MarvinMarvin Posts: 14,213moderator
    Worldwide leader Samsung grew its share of the smartphone market roughly 4 percent to 32.7 percent on shipments of 70.7 million units, up 60.7 percent from 44 million shipped units in the year-ago period. Total phone shipments reached 115 million, representing a 27.5 percent share of the total mobile phone market.

    So, Q1 2013, Samsung shipped 70.7 million smartphones and made 7.2 trillion won / $6.5b.

    In Q4 2012, Samsung shipped 63.7 million smartphones:
    http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2013/01/25/idc-samsung-shipped-record-63-7m-smartphones-in-q4-12/

    and made 8.84 trillion won / $8.27b:
    http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/24/samsung-q4-2012-earnings/

    More units, lower profit. Apple is experiencing lower margins but not to that extent and even with close to half Samsung's smartphone volume, Apple reported $9.5b profit vs Samsung's $6.5b. Samsung does twice the work for 2/3 the profit.
  • Reply 30 of 71
    nelsonxnelsonx Posts: 278member


    Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.

  • Reply 31 of 71
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

    Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.


     


    Except 1. No, and 2. The Mac is over 10 percent of the market (over 15 in the US and western countries). It's not 1999 anymore.

  • Reply 32 of 71
    pedromartinspedromartins Posts: 1,333member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post


    Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.



    And?


     


    How will that change the fact the Samsung phones are crap?

  • Reply 33 of 71
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 1,945member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by crazy_mac_lover View Post



    Market share means nothing . Look at netbooks , boomed , all gone .

    The most important thing for Apple to do is profit profit and profit .


    This is the perfect answer. 

  • Reply 34 of 71
    tzeshantzeshan Posts: 1,945member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Marvin View Post





    So, Q1 2013, Samsung shipped 70.7 million smartphones and made 7.2 trillion won / $6.5b.



    In Q4 2012, Samsung shipped 63.7 million smartphones:

    http://thenextweb.com/mobile/2013/01/25/idc-samsung-shipped-record-63-7m-smartphones-in-q4-12/



    and made 8.84 trillion won / $8.27b:

    http://www.engadget.com/2013/01/24/samsung-q4-2012-earnings/



    More units, lower profit. Apple is experiencing lower margins but not to that extent and even with close to half Samsung's smartphone volume, Apple reported $9.5b profit vs Samsung's $6.5b. Samsung does twice the work for 2/3 the profit.


    Samsung made less per unit than you calculated.  Because you did not include the feature phones Samsung sold.  

  • Reply 35 of 71
    mudman2mudman2 Posts: 54member
    When are people going to stop reporting the crap that comes out of IDC. THEY WORK DIRECTLY FOR SAMSUNG Appleinsider people
  • Reply 36 of 71
    nelsonxnelsonx Posts: 278member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post


     


    Except 1. No, and 2. The Mac is over 10 percent of the market (over 15 in the US and western countries). It's not 1999 anymore.



    MacOSX 7.29% March 2013


    http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-ww-monthly-201203-201303

  • Reply 37 of 71
    nelsonxnelsonx Posts: 278member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pedromartins View Post


    And?


     


    How will that change the fact the Samsung phones are crap?





    There is no And. It's just me, stating what I believe will happen next. iPhone 5% marketshare in the next 3 years. That is if Cook is not fired and Apple doesn't change it's jobsian way of doing things.

  • Reply 38 of 71
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member


    Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post

    MacOSX 7.29% March 2013


    http://gs.statcounter.com/#os-ww-monthly-201203-201303



     


    So… you admit you were completely wrong.

  • Reply 39 of 71
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by 512ke View Post



    60% growth vs 6%?



    Shipped or not that's not good. Ouch


    Remember, T Mobile JUST started selling the iPhone 5 this month, not last quarter.




    China  Mobile hasn't been signed on, yet.


     


    Apple looks at year to year growth rate and for each model.  The iPhone 5 is selling more than the previous model and eventually they will have sold more iPhone 5's than the 4S, even though the 4S is still being offered.  Yeah, Apple may be doing better in China this year than they did last year, but they STILL have to sign on China Mobile for them to start reaching Global Market that are more accurate, so in essence, Apple is kind of lagging because of China Mobile not being signed on. China Mobile itself can boost iPhone sales (all models) and Apple might increase the number of units by another 75 to 100 Million units on a yearly basis, which would then boost their Global marketshare.  We'll see how much impact T-Mobile has, but they are doing pretty good.  In the US, Apple has a significantly higher market share as compared to the Global market share.   There are also other countries that Apple STILL hasn't opened up as compared to Samsung.


     


    From an investment standpoint, this is a good time to buy Apple stock and to hold it for 2-3 years.  Apple also has a capacity on how many phones they can spit out on a daily basis and if they are running at full capacity during the first quarter for the newly released product, so they can't really do much more than that due to capacity issues.




    Since Apple is bringing production of certain Macs in the US, I'm sure that frees up production lines in China to make other products so they can increase their output.


     


    I think that Apple should have released at least two difference screen sizes for the iPhone 5, (4 inch and a 4.5+inch model) to go after different market segments and I think that impacts Apple market share, since right now they don't go after the users that prefer a 4.5inch or larger smartphone, so those users have a choice, wait, or buy another brand in the mean time.   Will there be Android users switching back to Apple once Apple releases a larger screen model?  I'm sure they will get switchers, what the percentage will be is unknown.


     


    What I've noticed in the high end Android market is that a decent number of those are going to the same person as many of these Android users will buy the latest and greatest and constantly buying new models and then selling the older one on the used market, so it impacts the user base number.


     


    They always talk about activations, but they don't talk about deactivations per model.  Then there is the number of units returned and replaced.   So let's say HTC or Samsung ship a product, but they have 35% of those have to be replaced.    They might be counting those replacements as new activations, but not taking away the returned unit as it's been deactivated.


     


    Bottom line, Apple's numbers could be better, but I'm sure things will pick up once they release a new large screen phone, sign on China Mobile and open up some more markets.  At least they are making more profit than most of the other players.

  • Reply 40 of 71
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NelsonX View Post


    Soon the iPhone will be 5% of the market, just like the Mac.



    Sorry, I don't think that's going to happen.  Wait 6 months after they sign on China Mobile and release a larger screen model.  You also have to realize that major corporations/government sector knows Apple is working on this Fingerprint technology for the iPhone and they may be holding off purchases until those models get released.  Apple is always know for building up pent up demand, which we also might be seeing.


     


    The Mac in the US is hovering around 12 to 15% of units shipped.  Worldwide it's around 7%, but Asia is ramping up faster than the US, and in the US, they tripled their market share in 6 years and it's a linear growth curve. I think it's safe to say that Apple market share of what's being shipping in the US market will eventually hit around 20 to 25% within the next 3 to 6 years.  Asia will start to catch up.

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