Apple's iPhone 5 estimated to have sold more than 2X faster at launch than Galaxy S4

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Following a report that Samsung has shipped 20 million units of their new Galaxy S4 smartphone, one analyst has estimated that it took Apple less than half as much time to ship the same amount of iPhone 5 units.

ISI Group


As Apple doesn't break down iPhone sales by model, Brian Marshall from ISI Group looked to official opening weekend numbers and quarterly earnings reports to determine his estimates provided to on Friday. Marshall's estimates took Apple around 25 days to hit the 20 million mark, possibly beating Samsung by over a month.

The estimates suggest that over the first 25 days of iPhone 5 availability, Apple shipped 805,000 units per day. In contrast, Samsung shipped less than half of that ? about 333,000 Galaxy S4 units ? per day.

In May, just weeks after the Galaxy S4 became available, Samsung announced they had shipped 10 million units In comparison, it took the S4?s predecessor, the Galaxy S III, as many as 50 days to reach 10 million units shipped.

Then this week, reports claimed that the Galaxy S4 has reached shipments 20 million units as June came to a close. That would make it Samsung's most popular device to date.

Last fall, Apple announced sales of five million iPhone 5 units during opening weekend alone. In the first full quarter that the iPhone 5 was available, Apple reached shipments of 48 million total iPhones, including previous-generation iPhone 4S and iPhone 4 models.

Though the Galaxy S4 is breaking Samsung?s sales records, demand for the latest Samsung smartphone is rumored to have cooled just months after its release. In June Samsung?s market capitalization fell by $12.4 billion to $187.8 billion after a note from J.P Morgan claimed third-quarter sales would disappoint investors.

Similarly, the markets have also reacted negatively to reports of alleged slipping demand for Apple?s iPhone 5. As such, anticipation has begun to build for Apple's next-generation handset, unofficially referred to as an "iPhone 5S," which is expected to debut as soon as September.

ISI Group continues to list shares of AAPL as a strong buy with a price target of $600. The investment firm expects numerous new devices ? including a new high-end iPhone, a low-cost iPhone, and potentially even an iPhone with a 5-inch display ? over the next nine months.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 27
    Samsung # mean shipped. ... Apples # mean sold... Is there any other point that needs made here?
  • Reply 2 of 27
    nagrommenagromme Posts: 2,834member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MacKrazyinKC View Post



    Samsung # mean shipped. ... Apples # mean sold... Is there any other point that needs made here?


     


    Financial journalists and analysts understand that fundamental difference perfectly well. When they pretend to ignore it, I can only assume the "mistake" is intentional. And then the error gets spread and repeated by those who truly don't understand the difference, and those who are just not paying attention as the distribute link-bait.

  • Reply 3 of 27
    geekdadgeekdad Posts: 1,131member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MacKrazyinKC View Post



    Samsung # mean shipped. ... Apples # mean sold... Is there any other point that needs made here?


    Sure....which iPhone are they talking about? Since Apple doesn't break those numbers down how can they be sure? Should we include all the previous Galaxy models too?

  • Reply 4 of 27
    t0nyt0ny Posts: 16member
    What's the point of an article giving estimated unverifiable stats?

    Apple don't post models for obvious reasons, so people can write nonsense like this!
  • Reply 5 of 27
    I sold more, no I sold more, no I sold more! I am going to sound like a troll, but I really don't care. Samsung touted some big sale (or shipped) numbers, and now there is a post about how Apple way outsold them. What's the point? iPhones sell faster than S4's? Got it... Wasn't really a question, was it? Congrats to Samsung for selling a boatload, and to Apple for also selling a boatload.
  • Reply 6 of 27
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MacKrazyinKC View Post



    Samsung # mean shipped. ... Apples # mean sold... Is there any other point that needs made here?


     


    The point is, both numbers mean sold.  It's just that a lot of the time, for both companies it means sold to a retailer, not an end user.


     


    For example, the article recalled that Apple announced sales of five million iPhone 5 on its first weekend.  What most laymen don't realize, is that those five million included sales to retailers around the world... sales that were still on trucks or planes, since Apple counts a sale the moment an item ships.


     


    That's why the five million was seen as a disappointment by analysts, because the iPhone 5 launched to two more countries than the iPhone 4S had the year before, yet the iPhone 5 had "only" one million more "sales" the first weekend than the 4S.   To analysts, this indicated that retailer interest was not as high as expected.

  • Reply 7 of 27
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by t0ny View Post



    What's the point of an article giving estimated unverifiable stats?


     


    Obviously to piss off people like you.

  • Reply 8 of 27
    piotpiot Posts: 1,346member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by KDarling View Post


     


    The point is..............................................................................................



     


  • Reply 9 of 27
    adamcadamc Posts: 582member
    kdarling wrote: »
    The point is, both numbers mean sold.  It's just that a lot of the time, for both companies it means sold to a retailer, not an end user.

    For example, the article recalled that Apple announced sales of five million iPhone 5 on its first weekend.  What most laymen don't realize, is that those five million included sales to retailers around the world... sales that were still on trucks or planes, since Apple counts a sale the moment an item ships.

    That's why the five million was seen as a disappointment by analysts, because the iPhone 5 launched to two more countries than the iPhone 4S had the year before, yet the iPhone 5 had "only" one million more "sales" the first weekend than the 4S.   To analysts, this indicated that retailer interest was not as high as expected.

    You are the only one who doubt Apple's sale of the iPhones 5 to end users. I wonder where you got e nonsense from. Yes give us a link.

    The analysts were disappointed with the 5 millions because one idiot by the name of Gene Munster said Apple will sell 10 millions of the iphone 5.
  • Reply 10 of 27
    constable odoconstable odo Posts: 1,041member
    Why does any of this even matter. Investors are definitely going to be disappointed with iPhone sales this quarter and Apple's share price is going to fall. Apple needs to get into a new line of business that doesn't involve being at the mercy of smartphone hardware sales. Apple has plenty of money to do other things, but it would rather just let the reserve cash sit in a stink-pile and let the shareholders take the brunt of Timid Cook's mismanagement.

    How much would it actually cost Apple to start a search engine business? Ten billion dollars? $15 billion dollars? It would still leave Apple with well over a hundred billion dollars. Better to spend the unused money and break Google's stranglehold on the search engine ad business while Apple still has a pot to piss in. It's no wonder investors avoid Apple like a mutating virus. Apple doesn't seem to have any sense when it comes to putting its money to use.
  • Reply 11 of 27
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member
    Why does any of this even matter. Investors are definitely going to be disappointed with iPhone sales this quarter and Apple's share price is going to fall. Apple needs to get into a new line of business that doesn't involve being at the mercy of smartphone hardware sales. Apple has plenty of money to do other things, but it would rather just let the reserve cash sit in a stink-pile and let the shareholders take the brunt of Timid Cook's mismanagement.

    How much would it actually cost Apple to start a search engine business? Ten billion dollars? $15 billion dollars? It would still leave Apple with well over a hundred billion dollars. Better to spend the unused money and break Google's stranglehold on the search engine ad business while Apple still has a pot to piss in. It's no wonder investors avoid Apple like a mutating virus. Apple doesn't seem to have any sense when it comes to putting its money to use.

    You can't just spend money to get into something. That's what MS has done for the past decade... How's that working for them?

    Could Apple spend $100B and get into space missions?

    No offense, but your posts strike me as someone who invested too much money when Apple was high, got burned, is now pissed, and doesn't really understand the market, its irrationality, or valuations.
  • Reply 12 of 27
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member
    kdarling wrote: »
    The point is, both numbers mean sold.  It's just that a lot of the time, for both companies it means sold to a retailer, not an end user.

    For example, the article recalled that Apple announced sales of five million iPhone 5 on its first weekend.  What most laymen don't realize, is that those five million included sales to retailers around the world... sales that were still on trucks or planes, since Apple counts a sale the moment an item ships.

    That's why the five million was seen as a disappointment by analysts, because the iPhone 5 launched to two more countries than the iPhone 4S had the year before, yet the iPhone 5 had "only" one million more "sales" the first weekend than the 4S.   To analysts, this indicated that retailer interest was not as high as expected.

    Considering the iPhone 5 was VERY hard to get for several days/weeks, I'd say the problem was likely manufacturing constraints and yield as opposed to lack of retailer interest.
  • Reply 13 of 27
    kdarlingkdarling Posts: 1,640member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AdamC View Post



    You are the only one who doubt Apple's sale of the iPhones 5 to end users. I wonder where you got e nonsense from. Yes give us a link.


     


    Anyone who really follows reports knows that initial sales are not all about end users.  Some is about filling the channel.


     


    For example, among others, ISI Group's Brian Marshall noted after the sales debut:


     


    "Clarification - recall the 5 mil+ iPhone 5 reported sales only takes into consideration: 1) what was sold into partners (e.g., retail outlets, carriers, etc.), 2) sold in AAPL retail stores, and 3) direct to customers only if they signed for the device."


     


    Number (3) is important, since the opening sales figures do NOT include pre-order sales, which can take up to weeks to get delivered.  (Apple does not count direct user sales until they are delivered.)


     



    Quote:


    The analysts were disappointed with the 5 millions because one idiot by the name of Gene Munster said Apple will sell 10 millions of the iphone 5.



     


    See the link above.  Quite a few analysts were expecting between 6-8 million.


     


    As it turned out, they were wrong about lack of retail desire, though.  It was more likely the result of a constrained supply, something which no one had expected from a supply guru like Cook.  To be fair, the unexpected problems with iPhone 5 assembly probably blind-sided him as well.


     


    Edit:  I see that Pendergast posted the same supply thought, while I was still slowly editing this while cooking dinner.  Edit 2:  In fact, deja vu!   Turns out I had answered this question already back in May, and had forgotten about it.

  • Reply 14 of 27
    curtis hannahcurtis hannah Posts: 1,802member
    Obvious!
  • Reply 15 of 27
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    Apple needs to get into a new line of business that doesn't involve being at the mercy of smartphone hardware sales.

    Well, don't you just have all the answers.
    How much would it actually cost Apple to start a search engine business?

    Less than it would take you to shut up, I'd guess.
    Ten billion dollars? $15 billion dollars? It would still leave Apple with well over a hundred billion dollars.

    Yes, that's how kindergarten math works.
    Apple doesn't seem to have any sense when it comes to putting its money to use.

    Dear sweet mother of just shut up.
  • Reply 16 of 27
    ksecksec Posts: 1,567member
    Not only the difference between Shipped and Sold, there is more, iPhone has always been constrained by manufacturing capacity till at least 2 - 3 months into from launch. So in reality Apple has always sold as many iPhone as they could make.

    And that is why it makes sense to have at least 1 more Model of iPhone. No manufacture on earth could handle the requirement and volume of Apple.
  • Reply 17 of 27
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    Why does any of this even matter. Investors are definitely going to be disappointed with iPhone sales this quarter and Apple's share price is going to fall. Apple needs to get into a new line of business that doesn't involve being at the mercy of smartphone hardware sales. Apple has plenty of money to do other things, but it would rather just let the reserve cash sit in a stink-pile and let the shareholders take the brunt of Timid Cook's mismanagement.

    How much would it actually cost Apple to start a search engine business? Ten billion dollars? $15 billion dollars? It would still leave Apple with well over a hundred billion dollars. Better to spend the unused money and break Google's stranglehold on the search engine ad business while Apple still has a pot to piss in. It's no wonder investors avoid Apple like a mutating virus. Apple doesn't seem to have any sense when it comes to putting its money to use.

    Dear Constable Dodo, I'm going to write you an open letter every time you play your "Timid Cook" card.

    Can I call you Dodo for short? Dodo, today's letter is about Apple's capital expenditures. Did you ever find out how that extra 2 billion they spent on Cap Ex turned out, the one that Horace Dediu thought was maybe for . . . what? Do you know? Did you ever find out what Tim Cook was talking about when he said that they invested another 2 billion to secure some new technology or other two years ago?

    Dodo, do you know how many more billion-dollar data centers they're going to build? I bet you'd like them to be building them all at once, huh? Do you really think Apple belongs in the penny-per-view ad business?

    I'm getting tired of this now, Dodo, more later. Maybe.
  • Reply 18 of 27
    rayzrayz Posts: 814member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post



    Why does any of this even matter. Investors are definitely going to be disappointed with iPhone sales this quarter and Apple's share price is going to fall. Apple needs to get into a new line of business that doesn't involve being at the mercy of smartphone hardware sales. Apple has plenty of money to do other things, but it would rather just let the reserve cash sit in a stink-pile and let the shareholders take the brunt of Timid Cook's mismanagement.



    How much would it actually cost Apple to start a search engine business? Ten billion dollars? $15 billion dollars? It would still leave Apple with well over a hundred billion dollars. Better to spend the unused money and break Google's stranglehold on the search engine ad business while Apple still has a pot to piss in. It's no wonder investors avoid Apple like a mutating virus. Apple doesn't seem to have any sense when it comes to putting its money to use.


     


    The Search Engine business?? Your clueless "throw sh*t and see what sticks" strategy explains why you're getting burned in the stock market and Apple is sitting on a massive pile of cash. That's the strategy that led to Microsoft's only ever quarterly loss.


     


    And speaking of burning, here's a quick investment lesson because you clearly need one.


     


    When someone trips and puts their hand in the fire, their first reaction is to pull their hand out of the flames. What they don't do is leave their hand in the fire and whine on about how much it hurts.

  • Reply 19 of 27
    rayzrayz Posts: 814member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Flaneur View Post





    Dear Constable Dodo, I'm going to write you an open letter every time you play your "Timid Cook" card.



    Can I call you Dodo for short? Dodo, today's letter is about Apple's capital expenditures. Did you ever find out how that extra 2 billion they spent on Cap Ex turned out, the one that Horace Dediu thought was maybe for . . . what? Do you know? Did you ever find out what Tim Cook was talking about when he said that they invested another 2 billion to secure some new technology or other two years ago?



    Dodo, do you know how many more billion-dollar data centers they're going to build? I bet you'd like them to be building them all at once, huh? Do you really think Apple belongs in the penny-per-view ad business?



    I'm getting tired of this now, Dodo, more later. Maybe.


     


    Ah, Horace Dediu; the only analyst who actually does any analysis. 

  • Reply 20 of 27
    rayzrayz Posts: 814member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AdamC View Post





    You are the only one who doubt Apple's sale of the iPhones 5 to end users. I wonder where you got e nonsense from. Yes give us a link.



    The analysts were disappointed with the 5 millions because one idiot by the name of Gene Munster said Apple will sell 10 millions of the iphone 5.


     


    Yes, this is a tricky one. I imagine that Apple does count sales to end users if phone was purchased from an Apple store. I can't really see how they could report anything else. However, only 20% of iPhone sales are from an Apple store. So unless the stores only give Apple the money when the phone is sold then I'm not sure how they would be able to count the phone until it was activated.


     


    Having said that, there is one thing that really doesn't add up: if Samsung's phones are doing so well then why aren't these figures reflected in the usage and advertising stats?

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