Apple predicted to beat market consensus with 29M iPhones shipped in June quarter

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited January 2014
Potential upside in Apple's recently concluded June quarter could be driven by greater-than-expected iPhone shipments, with one analyst predicting that the company beat projections and shipped at least 29 million iPhones.

iPhones
Apple's current iPhone lineup.


Citing demand data from Morgan Stanley's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker, as well as supply chain checks, analyst Katy Huberty said in a note to investors on Wednesday that she believes stronger-than-anticipated iPhone shipments will drive revenue and earnings per share above market consensus.

Wall Street watchers generally expect that Apple shipped 26.5 million iPhones during the June quarter. But Huberty's data suggests Apple shipped anywhere between 29 million and 32 million smartphones during the three-month frame.

The anticipated strong numbers were largely driven by demand for Apple's discounted legacy smartphones, the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S.

Huberty's most conservative estimate, in which all iPhones sold beyond 26 million are the cheapest iPhone 4 sold at a $50 discount, still implies total revenue greater than $36 billion. That would beat Apple's guidance range of $33.5 billion to $35.5 billion for the June quarter, as well as market consensus of $35.1 billion.

Beyond the iPhone, Huberty expects that Apple also shipped 3.9 million Macs and 18 million iPads. That would help Apple push its net earnings per share beyond the $7.32 consensus expectation on the Street.

While Huberty is bullish for Apple's quarterly conference call, which is scheduled for next Tuesday, July 23, she did show some concern for the current September quarter, as, she believes consensus estimates are currently too high. She expects Apple's next iPhone will only be available for "a few days" in the September quarter, which could hold the company's revenue guidance to between $33.5 billion and $35.5 billion, with gross margins in the 34 to 35 percent range.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 42
    blackbookblackbook Posts: 1,361member
    The iPhone 4 is doing a bang up job driving sales.

    It's a much better option this year than the 3GS was last year.

    My hope is that the rumored low cost iPhone continues the quality and high end appeal of the 4 rather than dipping in quality using lower end materials.
  • Reply 2 of 42
    softekysofteky Posts: 135member
    "Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.
  • Reply 3 of 42
    blackbookblackbook Posts: 1,361member
    softeky wrote: »
    "Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.

    Go home, softeky.
  • Reply 5 of 42
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member
    blackbook wrote: »
    The iPhone 4 is doing a bang up job driving sales.

    It's a much better option this year than the 3GS was last year.

    My hope is that the rumored low cost iPhone continues the quality and high end appeal of the 4 rather than dipping in quality using lower end materials.

    You'd have to be pretty deluded to think that somehow the new low-cost iPhone is going to be a "dip in quality" in anyway. Its just different, for the purpose of cheaper and more durable.
  • Reply 6 of 42
    anantksundaramanantksundaram Posts: 20,172member
    avarma wrote: »

    A blip. The analyst is talking utter nonsense. The previous quarter's numbers were inflated by having to meet pent-up demand, that's all.

    India is still a longer term market for Apple. They should focus all their attention on China in the next few years, kick Samsung out to India, and then focus on the country five years from now.
  • Reply 7 of 42
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,001member
    blackbook wrote: »
    Go home, softeky.

    It's a legitimate question. One I'm guessing by your retort that you don't have the answer to but you'll quickly question any Samsung sales numbers.
  • Reply 8 of 42
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    Apple predicted to beat market consensus

    And here we go again. When Apple sells 28,999,999 iPhones, the stock goes below $400.
    softeky wrote: »
    "Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped.

    For Apple, shipments are sales in seven days.
  • Reply 9 of 42

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Tallest Skil View Post





    And here we go again. When Apple sells 28,999,999 iPhones, the stock goes below $400.


    This is what I was thinking! Now when they don't meet these analyst expectations, the stock will drop again ...


     


    Oh well.

  • Reply 10 of 42
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 9,233member
    A blip. The analyst is talking utter nonsense. The previous quarter's numbers were inflated by having to meet pent-up demand, that's all.

    India is still a longer term market for Apple. They should focus all their attention on China in the next few years, kick Samsung out to India, and then focus on the country five years from now.

    India is totally irrelevant for the short term. From jan to march, 120,000 iPhones were sold in India. This has no bearing at all upon the overall iPhone numbers.

    An analyst quoted in the article was also criticizing Apple for making the iPhone cheaper in India, which is exactly what I predicted would happen. Apple will be criticized regardless of what they do.
  • Reply 11 of 42
    constable odoconstable odo Posts: 1,041member
    And if Apple doesn't make those iPhone numbers, Apple's share price will end up further into the toilet. If Amazon doesn't make it's numbers, the share price takes a quick drop and in a couple of weeks shoots up even higher. Apple ends up as a fairly bad investment because no investors actually have any faith in Apple's future. It's really hard to put any faith in Apple with Timid Cook at the helm.

    In any event, the next iPhone will have to have some serious sales to even move Apple's share price in a positive direction. Wall Street continues to think in terms of who has the most powerful smartphone is the winner. I think the Galaxy S4-class smartphone is practically the limit as to what the average consumer needs in terms of hardware. Apple needs to look towards iPhone and iOS refinements and services to hold its market share steady. Wall Street is only interested in huge growth and it's a fool's game.
  • Reply 12 of 42
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member


     


    So they went from 240k phones to 120k phones.


     


    This is HUGE people. HUGE.


     


    Apple is DOOMED.

  • Reply 13 of 42
    pendergastpendergast Posts: 1,358member

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Constable Odo View Post



    Wall Street is... a fool's game.


     


     


    This is the most sense you've made in quite a while.

  • Reply 14 of 42
    So just so I get this:

    Apple Shipments = iPhones actually sold to customers.

    Other Company Shipments: Smartphones sitting in a warehouse somewhere.

    Right?
  • Reply 15 of 42
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    But I just saw today that an analyst reduced their price target. That means Apple is doomed, no?
  • Reply 16 of 42
    ""Shipments" or "Sales"? I thought Apple only reported actual sales which is a much more important metric than units shipped."

    This is not true, though I've heard many pundits on Podcasts say this.

    As soon as 'ownership of the device' is transferred to a carrier partner or any retailer, this counts as a sale. This is why Apple also provides a number for 'Channel inventory' showing how many devices are in the channel. The delta in channel inventory is used to derive "Sell through' or the devices which actually ended up in the hands of a user.

    So, Apple could still drive up sales by 'stuffing the channel'. However, as noted, Apple turns inventory very well. I would expect the channel to actually start to drain this quarter (making room for the new model plus slower sales in anticipation of a new model by the publc) . Due to this, I think Katy's number is likely too high compared to what will actually be reported as channel inventory will actually drop during the quarter.
  • Reply 17 of 42
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    It's really hard to put any faith in Apple with Timid Cook at the helm.

    Maybe you should shut up and go away, then, huh?
    Wall Street continues to think in terms of who has the most powerful smartphone is the winner.

    No, they don't. Because that's Apple.

    Wall Street only cares about perceived sellability. Not sales, and not actual value, but cheap, inefficient crap.
    Apple needs to look towards iPhone and iOS refinements and services to hold its market share steady.

    Really? I never would have guessed. :no:
    Wall Street is only interested in huge growth and it's a fool's game.

    THERE you go! Few more posts like this and your past idiocy will be cured!
  • Reply 18 of 42
    I believe Apple gross margin will improve to 41-42 % .
  • Reply 19 of 42
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Not surprisingly the media is running with this 'iPhone sales down 49% in India' story. With the expectation of course that people will just read the headline and thus not see that the actual sales figures (if accurate) are a blip in terms of overall iPhone sales. :rolleyes:
  • Reply 20 of 42
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,800member
    This means analysts will raise the consensus to guarantee Apple will miss them to prove their "Apple is doomed" meme.
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