Apple will try to convince its existing customer base - very large, by the way - that they can't live without this product. They have a pretty strong history of success with such things.
Thompson
Actually Apple success came from selling products that people needed: communication, computing, playing music, etc, things that improved people’s life on their own not as accessories! What Apple did was drastically improve usability and experience to the point where more people could take advantage of new technology to do things that they already did in some form.
A smartwatch looks to be an accessory that might improve interactions with other devices but is limited in scope. It is not actually necessary for those interactions. It might have some biosensors that could be interesting for some people, but for most people will seem superfluous. It will be mostly about experience not new functionality
As you'd expect, Switzerland maintains the highest average unit price and volume at 30 million units. France is 2nd at 7 million units with ASP of ~$175.
Apple selling 65m at $199 in a year would be about half the entire premium watch industry of every country combined. It's just not realistic IMO. There's also the issue that Tim noted during an interview and someone else pointed out in the thread, which is that kids don't wear watches. Smartphones have replaced watches for people for the function of telling the time. As a piece of jewellery, a watch still has a place but this isn't the kind of thing Apple makes.
Some of their competitors are making moves into this space but they don't look all that compelling:
That just basically controls the phone via the watch. Looks like Samsung might be paying off the media again too because the above article says Samsung is kicking off the trend but Sony has had their watch available to buy for a while:
But you neglect to mention Tim Cook's point, which is just because people don't wear watches anymore, doesn't mean Apple can't convince people that they NEED a wrist-worn iDevice.
The fact that people that used to wear watches don't anymore, and kids NEVER have, might work in Apple's favor, as they aren't going to have to convince anyone to throw away what they already wear and buy this instead.
Just like the iPad, it will invent its OWN category, and slide right in to people's lives.
However, 65 million units in the first year is an estimate approximately 45 million too high.
Feels like stock pumping by dumping rumors with outrageously good imaginary numbers on top of the Sept 10th ones. AAPL analyst motto is, "Buy on rumor, sell on news!" so why not pack more rumors in?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dubston
So that when Apple doesn't sell that many, they can say they somehow failed. I do agree with $199 being a sweet spot price. I seem to remember Phil Schiller saying that when the iPod touch 8GB was $199.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Dodel
Are there 65 million people left in the world who would wear a new watch? Neither of my kids have ever worn any of the watches I have bought them, and none of their friends do either. Unless this replaces their phones I don't see how this rumour is possible.
Exactly, It is just another analysis trying to manipulated the market again. I am not sure why the SEC is not looking into these people, since we see it time and again they come out with this bad information and trying and profit from it. The SEC should just go after a couple of these guys and make the back up their claims with facts. Since they are not reporters they can not high behind the first amendment or confidentiality of their informants
I haven't worn watches in years, but did pick up a Pebble to play with, and you know what? pretty cool device. Then I tried a FuelBand and actually preferred it as the fitness info is kind of addictive and helpful as well, and I did notice Tim wearing one when he made his comments about watches. Mix the two, add Apple's take on it, and I'm sure they will sell a bunch. My highschool/college daughters BOTH wear watches, I showed a young female co-worker the Pebble, she went all over town to get one from Best Buy, and ended up paying top dollar on eBay to get one. I never expected that type of response.
I find it very odd, this mentality of "I won't ever wear a watch, so no one should, I hope they fail miserably", sheese .... people.
The second I saw the iPad I knew the world would change, a wrist worn smart accessory?? We'll just see I guess, I have a good gut feeling that this will be great.
As this guy pointed out, "women with short dresses will have to be careful around little boys with a this watch and a phone" for this reason alone this will kill this idea. It is another example of technology being in conflict with social norms
In an industry changing move, Apple will begin selling non-existent products in time for Christmas. Long lines are expected on the day the product, dubbed the iNothing, does not begin selling.
Apple spokespersons were unavailable for comment, but industry insiders, have indicated that Apple will use the money saved from not manufacturing the iNothing, to create even more non-existent products.
Wall Street is abuzz with this new strategy which is expected to be copied by other manufacturers as they struggle to keep up with no one.
I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy.
I hope it fails miserably.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64
As this guy pointed out, "women with short dresses will have to be careful around little boys with a this watch and a phone" for this reason alone this will kill this idea. It is another example of technology being in conflict with social norms
Apple won't have a camera on their iWatch- facetiming on your watch? Awful. It's not going to be a "Dick Tracy" device. That's nerdy- very nerdy. The iWatch will be cool- and it'll sell itself as such. Fitness is sexy- fitness is cool- the iWatch will focus on those- and, in turn, be cool. Tech-wise it'll be astonishing w/ its biometric capability, and the notifications will be on par with all the android copy-cats that will come out. Some might even top the iWatch. But the iWatch will still be "cool"- and the Android watches will be nerdy- because Apple's main focus through marketing and functionality- will be on Fitness. So while the new Android watches that come out after the iWatch will be able to boast "Hey- look- we have a camera"- Apple won't because they know it's nerdy. $399, $499- name your price. In fact- the more expensive, the more "elite" and cool. This will be a winner if they do it the right way. Can't wait!
Apple won't have a camera on their iWatch- facetiming on your watch? Awful. It's not going to be a "Dick Tracy" device. That's nerdy- very nerdy. The iWatch will be cool- and it'll sell itself as such. Fitness is sexy- fitness is cool- the iWatch will focus on those- and, in turn, be cool. Tech-wise it'll be astonishing w/ its biometric capability, and the notifications will be on par with all the android copy-cats that will come out. Some might even top the iWatch. But the iWatch will still be "cool"- and the Android watches will be nerdy- because Apple's main focus through marketing and functionality- will be on Fitness. So while the new Android watches that come out after the iWatch will be able to boast "Hey- look- we have a camera"- Apple won't because they know it's nerdy. $399, $499- name your price. In fact- the more expensive, the more "elite" and cool. This will be a winner if they do it the right way. Can't wait!
And cool too. You forgot to mention they'd be cool. :smokey:
you neglect to mention Tim Cook's point, which is just because people don't wear watches anymore, doesn't mean Apple can't convince people that they NEED a wrist-worn iDevice.
The fact that people that used to wear watches don't anymore, and kids NEVER have, might work in Apple's favor, as they aren't going to have to convince anyone to throw away what they already wear and buy this instead.
Just like the iPad, it will invent its OWN category, and slide right in to people's lives.
You have to think of how it does that. It has no keyboard so you can't text or dial phones. It's on the wrist so it can't have a headphone jack. The battery is tiny as are the components so they can't run full apps or even have wifi and how do they let you charge it? There's no place for a lightning port. There are limited-use cases such as fitness accessories, maybe even some navigation but for the most part, this sort of thing will appeal to the same people who had calculator watches back in the 80s.
Maybe having Siri connected to the phone in your pocket would appeal to some people but headphones can do that.
However, 65 million units in the first year is an estimate approximately 45 million too high.
So they make 20m x $199 x 0.25 net margin = $995m per year = ~$250m per quarter. Where does the market peak? The stats show that the 2011 worldwide premium watch market is 65m units per year. Even if they top 20 million to almost match the whole of Switzerland despite selling digital watches, it doesn't get much better than that.
Cool things Apple could do with an iWatch: When you hold it up to look at it, the screen turns. It could generate energy for itself as you move your arm while walking. It would know when you go for a walk or jog and activate tracking and other feature automatically. When you are at rest near an AppleTV, it could show you a remote control app. The pod cast app would gather shows you are interested in when connected to WiFi. Apple could automatically generate news and entertainment "channels" in the same way FlipBoard generates magazines. Detailed photo maps would be cached on the iWatch for offline use while walking or jogging based on locations you visit. The fingerprint detector allows an easy and secure way to make purchases. Share contact information with the person in front of you with a swipe. This plus all the apps and iPhone/iPad connectivity features you would expect from a smart watch.
TS is much better as a contributor instead of a moderator. He can be totally abrasive and not have to uphold a standard. I prefer this TS substantially more. Enjoyable even.
Comments
I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy.
I hope it fails miserably.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Connie
I do not think Apple will ever make a watch. They should focus their resources and energy and try and make a 5 inch iPhone instead.
I prefer an Apple eInk eReader that I can read on the beach. Why sell books if it's so limited?
Quote:
Originally Posted by thompr
Apple will try to convince its existing customer base - very large, by the way - that they can't live without this product. They have a pretty strong history of success with such things.
Thompson
Actually Apple success came from selling products that people needed: communication, computing, playing music, etc, things that improved people’s life on their own not as accessories! What Apple did was drastically improve usability and experience to the point where more people could take advantage of new technology to do things that they already did in some form.
A smartwatch looks to be an accessory that might improve interactions with other devices but is limited in scope. It is not actually necessary for those interactions. It might have some biosensors that could be interesting for some people, but for most people will seem superfluous. It will be mostly about experience not new functionality
Quote:
Originally Posted by Marvin
This is another of those rumors that just get floated around for years. This one celebrates its 3rd birthday today:
http://www.razorianfly.com/2010/08/28/apple-to-debut-iwatch-next-week-rumor/
I found some stats previously during the course of the numerous threads about it showing potential numbers:
http://forums.appleinsider.com/t/157069/survey-finds-19-of-consumers-interested-in-buying-apple-iwatch#post_2313658
One of the references there showed watch export numbers for 2011:
http://www.economist.com/news/business/21571943-industry-ripe-shake-up-time-money
As you'd expect, Switzerland maintains the highest average unit price and volume at 30 million units. France is 2nd at 7 million units with ASP of ~$175.
Apple selling 65m at $199 in a year would be about half the entire premium watch industry of every country combined. It's just not realistic IMO. There's also the issue that Tim noted during an interview and someone else pointed out in the thread, which is that kids don't wear watches. Smartphones have replaced watches for people for the function of telling the time. As a piece of jewellery, a watch still has a place but this isn't the kind of thing Apple makes.
Some of their competitors are making moves into this space but they don't look all that compelling:
http://uk.news.yahoo.com/samsung--smart-watch--kicks-off-this-year-s-big-tech-trend-135519070.html#Tey2N8P
That just basically controls the phone via the watch. Looks like Samsung might be paying off the media again too because the above article says Samsung is kicking off the trend but Sony has had their watch available to buy for a while:
http://www.sonymobile.com/gb/products/accessories/smartwatch/
But you neglect to mention Tim Cook's point, which is just because people don't wear watches anymore, doesn't mean Apple can't convince people that they NEED a wrist-worn iDevice.
The fact that people that used to wear watches don't anymore, and kids NEVER have, might work in Apple's favor, as they aren't going to have to convince anyone to throw away what they already wear and buy this instead.
Just like the iPad, it will invent its OWN category, and slide right in to people's lives.
However, 65 million units in the first year is an estimate approximately 45 million too high.
Quote:
Originally Posted by massconn72
I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy.
I hope it fails miserably.
Well as long as we have people like you with crippling lack of vision, who needs Android trolls?
Quote:
Originally Posted by chazwatson
Feels like stock pumping by dumping rumors with outrageously good imaginary numbers on top of the Sept 10th ones. AAPL analyst motto is, "Buy on rumor, sell on news!" so why not pack more rumors in?
Quote:
Originally Posted by dubston
So that when Apple doesn't sell that many, they can say they somehow failed. I do agree with $199 being a sweet spot price. I seem to remember Phil Schiller saying that when the iPod touch 8GB was $199.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark Dodel
Are there 65 million people left in the world who would wear a new watch? Neither of my kids have ever worn any of the watches I have bought them, and none of their friends do either. Unless this replaces their phones I don't see how this rumour is possible.
Exactly, It is just another analysis trying to manipulated the market again. I am not sure why the SEC is not looking into these people, since we see it time and again they come out with this bad information and trying and profit from it. The SEC should just go after a couple of these guys and make the back up their claims with facts. Since they are not reporters they can not high behind the first amendment or confidentiality of their informants
Quote:
Originally Posted by massconn72
I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy.
I hope it fails miserably.
Based on this post you could for sure teach them a thing or two about failing.
I haven't worn watches in years, but did pick up a Pebble to play with, and you know what? pretty cool device. Then I tried a FuelBand and actually preferred it as the fitness info is kind of addictive and helpful as well, and I did notice Tim wearing one when he made his comments about watches. Mix the two, add Apple's take on it, and I'm sure they will sell a bunch. My highschool/college daughters BOTH wear watches, I showed a young female co-worker the Pebble, she went all over town to get one from Best Buy, and ended up paying top dollar on eBay to get one. I never expected that type of response.
I find it very odd, this mentality of "I won't ever wear a watch, so no one should, I hope they fail miserably", sheese .... people.
The second I saw the iPad I knew the world would change, a wrist worn smart accessory?? We'll just see I guess, I have a good gut feeling that this will be great.
As this guy pointed out, "women with short dresses will have to be careful around little boys with a this watch and a phone" for this reason alone this will kill this idea. It is another example of technology being in conflict with social norms
Apple spokespersons were unavailable for comment, but industry insiders, have indicated that Apple will use the money saved from not manufacturing the iNothing, to create even more non-existent products.
Wall Street is abuzz with this new strategy which is expected to be copied by other manufacturers as they struggle to keep up with no one.
followed by whatever some analyst wants to make up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by massconn72
I love my Mac Pro, my iPad 2, my Mini, and last but not least, my iPhone 4S. But I will NEVER buy a damn Apple watch. My name isn't Dick Tracy.
I hope it fails miserably.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maestro64
As this guy pointed out, "women with short dresses will have to be careful around little boys with a this watch and a phone" for this reason alone this will kill this idea. It is another example of technology being in conflict with social norms
Apple won't have a camera on their iWatch- facetiming on your watch? Awful. It's not going to be a "Dick Tracy" device. That's nerdy- very nerdy. The iWatch will be cool- and it'll sell itself as such. Fitness is sexy- fitness is cool- the iWatch will focus on those- and, in turn, be cool. Tech-wise it'll be astonishing w/ its biometric capability, and the notifications will be on par with all the android copy-cats that will come out. Some might even top the iWatch. But the iWatch will still be "cool"- and the Android watches will be nerdy- because Apple's main focus through marketing and functionality- will be on Fitness. So while the new Android watches that come out after the iWatch will be able to boast "Hey- look- we have a camera"- Apple won't because they know it's nerdy. $399, $499- name your price. In fact- the more expensive, the more "elite" and cool. This will be a winner if they do it the right way. Can't wait!
Originally Posted by Smiles77
You'd be fooling yourself to believe an Apple wearable device (like that referred to above as iWatch) won't be released next year.
Hilarious. And when you have any proof, feel free to post it, though you would have done that initially if you did.
Originally Posted by Connie
I do not think Apple will ever make a watch. They should focus their resources and energy and try and make a 5 inch iPhone instead.
Ah, two dumb ideas.
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
These watch theories have become a circle jerk for analysts.
There's a 'wrist' joke in there somewhere…
And cool too. You forgot to mention they'd be cool. :smokey:
Does anyone else look at that watch and think "uncomfortable?"
You have to think of how it does that. It has no keyboard so you can't text or dial phones. It's on the wrist so it can't have a headphone jack. The battery is tiny as are the components so they can't run full apps or even have wifi and how do they let you charge it? There's no place for a lightning port. There are limited-use cases such as fitness accessories, maybe even some navigation but for the most part, this sort of thing will appeal to the same people who had calculator watches back in the 80s.
Maybe having Siri connected to the phone in your pocket would appeal to some people but headphones can do that.
So they make 20m x $199 x 0.25 net margin = $995m per year = ~$250m per quarter. Where does the market peak? The stats show that the 2011 worldwide premium watch market is 65m units per year. Even if they top 20 million to almost match the whole of Switzerland despite selling digital watches, it doesn't get much better than that.
When you hold it up to look at it, the screen turns.
It could generate energy for itself as you move your arm while walking.
It would know when you go for a walk or jog and activate tracking and other feature automatically.
When you are at rest near an AppleTV, it could show you a remote control app.
The pod cast app would gather shows you are interested in when connected to WiFi.
Apple could automatically generate news and entertainment "channels" in the same way FlipBoard generates magazines.
Detailed photo maps would be cached on the iWatch for offline use while walking or jogging based on locations you visit.
The fingerprint detector allows an easy and secure way to make purchases.
Share contact information with the person in front of you with a swipe.
This plus all the apps and iPhone/iPad connectivity features you would expect from a smart watch.
TS is much better as a contributor instead of a moderator. He can be totally abrasive and not have to uphold a standard. I prefer this TS substantially more. Enjoyable even.