One of the Chinese carriers announced pre-orders of over 100K phones. That seems pretty bad considering the 5 sold 2 million phones in the first three days it was available in China. So double 100K because there are two carriers and lets say preorders are at 200K that means between now and next Monday they need to sell 1.8 million phones just to equal the iPhone5.
I have no doubt through aggressive repurchase plans Apple has manufactured a market for the 5S, the problem is that isnt fooling anyone when it comes to EPS and revenue growth.
The phones are great, no doubt about it, but there is a difference between the phone being great and the stock being worth buying. So we have a situation where Apple needs to sell increasing more ridiculous numbers of phones just to move the EPS up 5 or 10% (by my math almost 27 million extra phones yearly would move EPS 10%). Apple's growth via smartphones is over and only people with their head in the sand dont see it. Sure they need to maintain sales to pay dividends, buyback shares, and overpay Cook, but they need another product line or something to move the needle on EPS and that doesnt appear to be happening.
So enjoy the great products, but the stock is going nowhere.
Stock is down over $55 since last Tuesday. There is no good way to spin that. And honestly I will not be surprised to see a price drop on the 5C yet this year. $550 off contract is too expensive for a lot of people this phone might otherwise attract.
Thing is, stock price has nothing to do with the health of the business. Over time, it should reflect the health of the business, but as they say... the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
One of the Chinese carriers announced pre-orders of over 100K phones. That seems pretty bad considering the 5 sold 2 million phones in the first three days it was available in China. So double 100K because there are two carriers and lets say preorders are at 200K that means between now and next Monday they need to sell 1.8 million phones just to equal the iPhone5.
I have no doubt through aggressive repurchase plans Apple has manufactured a market for the 5S, the problem is that isnt fooling anyone when it comes to EPS and revenue growth.
The phones are great, no doubt about it, but there is a difference between the phone being great and the stock being worth buying. So we have a situation where Apple needs to sell increasing more ridiculous numbers of phones just to move the EPS up 5 or 10% (by my math almost 27 million extra phones yearly would move EPS 10%). Apple's growth via smartphones is over and only people with their head in the sand dont see it. Sure they need to maintain sales to pay dividends, buyback shares, and overpay Cook, but they need another product line or something to move the needle on EPS and that doesnt appear to be happening.
So enjoy the great products, but the stock is going nowhere.
Well they couldn't have announced pre orders of the 5S because there are no preorders in China yet. I think it was a mistake for Apple to announce preorders for one phone but not the other. Either do them both or do neither.
I concur with those who maintain that Apple will release iPhone numbers on Monday Sept. 23. We will see record sales, but no one will know the mix of 4S, 5C, and 5S because Apple won't break out sales by model. (I believe the iPad and iPad mini are not broken out either.) Over 40% of iPhone sales were the 4 and 4S this past model year. Looks like quite a few people are looking at the $100. Further, with the pricing plans being what they are, many can get the 5C for $79 or less.
The supply constaints of the 5S are the only real concern here. It will be the more popular phone in most markets, especially the US.
However with limited supply, Apple seems to want the 5C to pick up the slack and frankly a lot of people will rather wait.
Unfortunately depending on the launch stock of the 5S and how quickly they ramp up production, this could crimp sales of the iPhone in the upcoming quarter. For sure supply will catch up as I'm sure Cook and team are throwing everything they need to alleviate it, and most of the sales will be recaptured, but some sales will be lost. Supply constraints in whatever way you slice it are never positive factors.
Well they couldn't have announced pre orders of the 5S because there are no preorders in China yet. I think it was a mistake for Apple to announce preorders for one phone but not the other. Either do them both or do neither.
Yes it gas been problematic as it has brought all kinds of speculation due to no preorder numbers released.
But it is a short lived problem ...come next week it will be a none issue with both models available for purchase.
I also believe management at apple is not stupid. They clearly knew the implications if such decision . Wonder what kind of info they got out of this split pre release?
I just think this is bad management by Cook. Again. He seems to lack the ability to put fires under people's asses. If the 5C isn't selling the 5S may not sell. My feeling is people who can afford a 5C can afford a 5S. So they wait.
They wait.
I think the 5S will sell by the boatload but the 5C, not so much.
Since Apple doesn't break down the numbers in the quarterly reports it will be difficult to judge how well the 5C is selling compared to previous model sales in other years.
As others have said, it seems that Apple was hoping to pick up a few extra sales in the second tier area by bringing out a pimped out new phone rather than sticking with the 5... but we'll never know if that happened unless Apple breaks down the numbers.
I have a message for all Apple investors: I am an Apple investor. I love Apple. I believe in Apple. If you don't, if you doubt Apple on a daily, no, make that an hourly basis, fine. No worries. Please sell all of your stock. Now! All of it. Every single certificate. Get out of Apple and go invest in some other company that you really do believe in. Then stop bringing my stock down! If you believe in Apple, I'm with you. I salute you. If you don't, if you're some Microsoft lover, or Samsung fan, or troll, or idiotic hedge fund moron trying to play srtock rollercoaster with one of the world's greatest and most innovative companies, then please SELL YOUR APPLE STOCK NOW AND LEAVE THE REST OF US ALONE!
Difference is the 4 and 4S weren't being advertised as new phones. If Apple had priced the 5C at $400 or even $450 off contract they could probably still make a decent margin and expand to a wider audience. The high end of the market probably isn't interested in a colored plastic phone anyway, Even John Gruber, who wasn't expecting a cheap phone, didnt expect Apple to price it at $550. It pisses me off because I don't want to see people buy a Moto X or Lumia whatever. I want to see them buy an iPhone. Apple could have offered the 5C at a cheaper price without getting into a race to the bottom.
Yes it gas been problematic as it has brought all kinds of speculation due to no preorder numbers released.
But it is a short lived problem ...come next week it will be a none issue with both models available for purchase.
I also believe management at apple is not stupid. They clearly knew the implications if such decision . Wonder what kind of info they got out of this split pre release?
It might be temporary but even if Apple announces a shitload of iPhones sold next Monday the stock is not coming back $55. I'm hearing rumors that another product keynote is coming second week of October. I hope so.
Difference is the 4 and 4S weren't being advertised as new phones. If Apple had priced the 5C at $400 or even $450 off contract they could probably still make a decent margin and expand to a wider audience. The high end of the market probably isn't interested in a colored plastic phone anyway, Even John Gruber, who wasn't expecting a cheap phone, didnt expect Apple to price it at $550. It pisses me off because I don't want to see people buy a Moto X or Lumia whatever. I want to see them buy an iPhone. Apple could have offered the 5C at a cheaper price without getting into a race to the bottom.
What so less people will buy a new phone over a 1 y.o. Phone? Isn't that what Fandroids say (not saying you're one): Why buy a 1y.o. iPhone when you can get a new Android device.
It might be temporary but even if Apple announces a shitload of iPhones sold next Monday the stock is not coming back $55. I'm hearing rumors that another product keynote is coming second week of October. I hope so.
Not instantly.. But it will move back up and above ....
Well there is still ipads to be announced. And mac pro and hopefully a new suprise!
If Apple feels like doing so, otherwise we won't know that. I mean, they aren't forced to do so.
I honestly believe that they laugh a lot about the falling stock price and that the more it falls, the better they feel about it because of their buyback program. They were buying 100$ bills with 80$. Now, they are buying those with 50$.
Sooner or later, the market will wake up, look at the current situation (apple being the only one innovating since 98, looking at the competitors P/E and situation, the cash reserve, Apple dominating profits on every area and most of the competition going through bad times, etc) and the stock will skyrocket to close half of what it should be (higher P/E than Google and Microsoft combined, since Apple is worth much more than both together).
I fully expect the sales numbers will take care of the stock. I hadn't considered the obvious benefit to the buy back program. Good insight.
The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one? That's what are you asking Apple to do.
Much talk about iPhone 5C having a plastic case. Fact is - iPhone 5C's case is part plastic, part metal, just like iPhone 5.
Well, if the preorders were over 2 million for 24 hours, Apple would have announced it. If they don't have some sort of announcement for the first weekend, then they really have issues with this rollout.
The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one? That's what are you asking Apple to do.
And name me a SINGLE phone that sells for $400 that is even close to the 5C in performance, build quality, OS, customer service, ect? There is none. Keep in mind the 5 is faster than the $700 Samsung S4 which has a ton of lag.
I don't know if its that much cheaper to go plastic and maybe the way Apple has built this phone it's not that much cheaper. But public perception is that something plastic should be cheaper. Regardless I think there is a whole swath of people Apple is not catering to by pricing at the upper range of the middle. Maybe at one point they could do that because other phones sucked so bad but that's not the case anymore. I'd rather see someone buy an iPhone than a Moto X or Nexus. But for people who are price conscious those phones might be good enough. Does Apple really want to give those people away to Android?
Comments
One of the Chinese carriers announced pre-orders of over 100K phones. That seems pretty bad considering the 5 sold 2 million phones in the first three days it was available in China. So double 100K because there are two carriers and lets say preorders are at 200K that means between now and next Monday they need to sell 1.8 million phones just to equal the iPhone5.
I have no doubt through aggressive repurchase plans Apple has manufactured a market for the 5S, the problem is that isnt fooling anyone when it comes to EPS and revenue growth.
The phones are great, no doubt about it, but there is a difference between the phone being great and the stock being worth buying. So we have a situation where Apple needs to sell increasing more ridiculous numbers of phones just to move the EPS up 5 or 10% (by my math almost 27 million extra phones yearly would move EPS 10%). Apple's growth via smartphones is over and only people with their head in the sand dont see it. Sure they need to maintain sales to pay dividends, buyback shares, and overpay Cook, but they need another product line or something to move the needle on EPS and that doesnt appear to be happening.
So enjoy the great products, but the stock is going nowhere.
Stock is down over $55 since last Tuesday. There is no good way to spin that. And honestly I will not be surprised to see a price drop on the 5C yet this year. $550 off contract is too expensive for a lot of people this phone might otherwise attract.
Thing is, stock price has nothing to do with the health of the business. Over time, it should reflect the health of the business, but as they say... the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.
I concur with those who maintain that Apple will release iPhone numbers on Monday Sept. 23. We will see record sales, but no one will know the mix of 4S, 5C, and 5S because Apple won't break out sales by model. (I believe the iPad and iPad mini are not broken out either.) Over 40% of iPhone sales were the 4 and 4S this past model year. Looks like quite a few people are looking at the $100. Further, with the pricing plans being what they are, many can get the 5C for $79 or less.
The supply constaints of the 5S are the only real concern here. It will be the more popular phone in most markets, especially the US.
However with limited supply, Apple seems to want the 5C to pick up the slack and frankly a lot of people will rather wait.
Unfortunately depending on the launch stock of the 5S and how quickly they ramp up production, this could crimp sales of the iPhone in the upcoming quarter. For sure supply will catch up as I'm sure Cook and team are throwing everything they need to alleviate it, and most of the sales will be recaptured, but some sales will be lost. Supply constraints in whatever way you slice it are never positive factors.
But it is a short lived problem ...come next week it will be a none issue with both models available for purchase.
I also believe management at apple is not stupid. They clearly knew the implications if such decision . Wonder what kind of info they got out of this split pre release?
I just think this is bad management by Cook. Again. He seems to lack the ability to put fires under people's asses. If the 5C isn't selling the 5S may not sell. My feeling is people who can afford a 5C can afford a 5S. So they wait.
They wait.
I think the 5S will sell by the boatload but the 5C, not so much.
Since Apple doesn't break down the numbers in the quarterly reports it will be difficult to judge how well the 5C is selling compared to previous model sales in other years.
As others have said, it seems that Apple was hoping to pick up a few extra sales in the second tier area by bringing out a pimped out new phone rather than sticking with the 5... but we'll never know if that happened unless Apple breaks down the numbers.
Thanks for listening.
mfstout
Difference is the 4 and 4S weren't being advertised as new phones. If Apple had priced the 5C at $400 or even $450 off contract they could probably still make a decent margin and expand to a wider audience. The high end of the market probably isn't interested in a colored plastic phone anyway, Even John Gruber, who wasn't expecting a cheap phone, didnt expect Apple to price it at $550. It pisses me off because I don't want to see people buy a Moto X or Lumia whatever. I want to see them buy an iPhone. Apple could have offered the 5C at a cheaper price without getting into a race to the bottom.
+1.
It might be temporary but even if Apple announces a shitload of iPhones sold next Monday the stock is not coming back $55. I'm hearing rumors that another product keynote is coming second week of October. I hope so.
..and then we will find out initial iPhone 5C sales have smashed all previous records.
**** these moronic, concern-trolling investors.
What so less people will buy a new phone over a 1 y.o. Phone? Isn't that what Fandroids say (not saying you're one): Why buy a 1y.o. iPhone when you can get a new Android device.
Well there is still ipads to be announced. And mac pro and hopefully a new suprise!
http://apple-incorporated.blogspot.com/2013/09/iphone-5c-starts-to-see-more-sell-outs.html
I fully expect the sales numbers will take care of the stock. I hadn't considered the obvious benefit to the buy back program. Good insight.
The iPhone5 was selling for $650 last week. Do you really believe that a plastic case is $250 cheaper to make than a metal one? That's what are you asking Apple to do.
Much talk about iPhone 5C having a plastic case. Fact is - iPhone 5C's case is part plastic, part metal, just like iPhone 5.