Preorder concerns 'overblown' as survey shows strong demand for Apple's iPhone 5s & 5c

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2014
Demand for Apple's upcoming iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c is healthy, a new survey has found, suggesting that investor concerns over device preorders may be unfounded.

Morgan Stanley


The latest AlphaWise data from Morgan Stanley tracking Web search trends found that demand for the iPhone saw a healthy uptick following last week's announcement of the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c. The data tracks key markets where the iPhones are set to launch, including the U.S., U.K., Germany, France, China and Japan.

Analyst Katy Huberty said the survey data suggests Apple may ship 34.5 million iPhone units in the current September quarter, which will conclude less than two weeks after the iPhone 5s and iPhone 5c become available.

That would suggest a 15 percent quarter over quarter increase in iPhone shipments for the September frame, which would be in line with the 16 percent quarter over quarter increase Apple saw in the same period in 2012. To Huberty, that represents "healthy demand" for Apple's latest iPhones.

While Apple didn't announce iPhone 5c preorders this year, 2013 also marks the first time that Apple will release two new iPhone models. The iPhone 5s is not available for preorder.Shares of Apple tumbled earlier this week, when Apple declined to announce any presale figures for the iPhone 5c. For the last few years, Apple has touted record preorders for its latest iPhone ? but 2013 marks the first time Apple is releasing two distinct new iPhone models, and preorders are only available for the second-tier iPhone 5c.

As a result, Huberty said investor concern over the lack of an announcement may be "overblown." She noted that Wall Street consensus calls for Apple to have shipped around 31 million iPhones in the September quarter, a figure less than the latest survey data suggests the company will actually ship.

"We don't view preorders in 2013 as comparable to past years given the higher-end iPhone 5s, which is the more likely choice for early adopters, isn't available for pre-order," Huberty wrote in a note to investors.

The multi-colored iPhone 5c remains available in stock for preorder through Apple's online store. But that model has largely the same parts as last year's iPhone 5, and lacks the Touch ID fingerprint scanner found in the new iPhone 5s, making it potentially a less attractive option for early adopters. Some observers, such as Huberty, presume the iPhone 5c will appeal to the type of customers who may not be inclined to preorder the latest smartphones.

Customers will be able to get their hands on both the iPhone 5c and iPhone 5s this Friday, when Apple's retail stores open at 8 a.m. local time. Evidence suggests the iPhone 5s will be in short supply for the launch weekend, potentially due to component constraints.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 40
    Why is there so much concern over investors? Apple is buying back shares. Investors seem to rely on misguided (or stupid) analysts. The vast majority appear, at least to me, to know something about $$$, but that is all. All dollars and no cents.
  • Reply 2 of 40
    Good news everyone. We found a survey from an unknown analyst that gives us the results we'd prefer to hear!
  • Reply 3 of 40
    1) Duh

    2) somebody get Morgan Stanley some training on how to create a readable chart.
  • Reply 4 of 40
    I do not know what to believe anymore. Everyday there is a new "expert" opinion of what is really happening. Apple should just publish the preorder numbers and get it over with. One thing I know for sure is that the iPhone 5s will be a huge success. I am not so sure about the 5c though.
  • Reply 5 of 40
    Nothing but market manipulation. I just wish I had cash to invest in some more Apple stock yesterday.
  • Reply 6 of 40

    So Apple Insider, what are the lines like outside of the Apple Stores a few days before this new release? I think I saw there was one person outside a store in London? More, the same, or not really the crowds they used to draw?

  • Reply 7 of 40
    pazuzupazuzu Posts: 1,728member
    beehunt wrote: »
    So Apple Insider, what are the lines like outside of the Apple Stores a few days before this new release? I think I saw there was one person outside a store in London? More, the same, or not really the crowds they used to draw?

    Lines have been "queing up" since last week here in NYC.

    Take your 2 posts and go try to find the Samsung Insider.
  • Reply 8 of 40
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Connie View Post



    I do not know what to believe anymore. Everyday there is a new "expert" opinion of what is really happening. Apple should just publish the preorder numbers and get it over with. One thing I know for sure is that the iPhone 5s will be a huge success. I am not so sure about the 5c though.

     

    Wait until next Monday. Apple might not breakdown the sales by model but at least it should be a good indication of sales.

     


    ... or... Apple doesn't release the numbers and the stock will become a good buy at under $400. 
  • Reply 9 of 40
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    connie wrote: »
    I do not know what to believe anymore. Everyday there is a new "expert" opinion of what is really happening. Apple should just publish the preorder numbers and get it over with. One thing I know for sure is that the iPhone 5s will be a huge success. I am not so sure about the 5c though.
    Apple is not going to break out sales by model. Most likely we'll get sales figures next Monday.
  • Reply 10 of 40
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,866member
    urkel wrote: »
    Good news everyone. We found a survey from an unknown analyst that gives us the results we'd prefer to hear!

    Difference is they have a survey rather than unsubstantiated guesses.
  • Reply 11 of 40
    richlrichl Posts: 2,213member

    The fewer people buy it, the easier it will be for me to get my hands on one. :)

  • Reply 12 of 40
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by beehunt View Post

     

    So Apple Insider, what are the lines like outside of the Apple Stores a few days before this new release? I think I saw there was one person outside a store in London? More, the same, or not really the crowds they used to draw?


     

    Big hairy Troll spotted! : )

  • Reply 13 of 40

    edited

  • Reply 14 of 40

    deleted

  • Reply 15 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pazuzu View Post





    Wrong Troll-

    Lines have been "queing up" since last week here in NYC.



    Take your 2 posts and go try to find the Samsung Insider.

     

    Okay you need to settle down, Im generally curious! Usually there are articles about lines forming by now... talk about getting your butt hurt! No Samsung here, just an iPhone 4S, and an iPad, writing this on my MacbookPro.

  • Reply 16 of 40
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by ealvarez View Post

     

     

    Big hairy Troll spotted! : )


     

    While hairy, not a troll, generally curious, usually there are articles by now? Only one person camping out at apple store near here, wondering what it is like elsewhere.

  • Reply 17 of 40
    If Apple made a trillion dollar profit next quarter the headlines would read, "Apple incurs huge tax liability. End of the line for Cook"
  • Reply 18 of 40
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by johnkolar View Post



    If Apple made a trillion dollar profit next quarter the headlines would read, "Apple incurs huge tax liability. End of the line for Cook"

     

    you made me laugh with your first post!... excellent! (and so true...)

  • Reply 19 of 40

    The analysts are a bunch of fickle SOB's.  A year or two ago, they had an "Apple can do no wrong" attitude and some were predicting the stock would go past $1000.  Now they have an "Apple can't do anything right" attitude.  The main complaint is that the 5c is not cheap enough to capture the low end market.  I'll bet you anything that if Apple had made the 5c substantially cheaper, the same analysts would complain that Apple's margins and potential sales of the 5s were being eroded.  They start with a sentiment and build their "analysis" around that sentiment.  I would be more logical to start with an analysis that leads to a sentiment or conclusion. 

  • Reply 20 of 40
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    rogifan wrote: »
    Apple is not going to break out sales by model. Most likely we'll get sales figures next Monday.
    Oh riiiiiiight.

    We'll likely never know how well the 5c does.

    They've invested in it, so they will get their two years out of it regardless. If it sells poorly this year, it will drop down to the entry level offering next year, likely in fewer color offerings, and the 5S will drop down to the number two phone as usual with the redesigned 6 taking the top spot.

    I suppose once it becomes the entry level model, they could keep the design indefinitely, and maybe that's the plan. Possibly even a standard fourth tier LTE phone like the iPhone 4 has become in China?
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