Analysts react to Apple's iPhone 5s and 5c launch weekend sales

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 106
    "Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
    Sales numbers are higher than expected, but that may be due to retained inventory rather than sales to consumers."

    Gene, Gene, Gene. Are you living in some sort of parallel universe where a limited number of units available for sale ("retained inventory") yields higher sales numbers? That's like saying "We only had 100 widgets to sell and were were able to sell 150 of 'em."

    Bwhahahahaha.
  • Reply 62 of 106
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member
    The irony here is so huge. Analysts or many of them at least, insanely predicted that apple would rise to 1000 per share. When instead of this the stock got cut in half, said analysts looked like ignorant fools. They got mad. And they wanted apple to go down. And it was going down and down and down. So they felt justified and empowered again. So they predicted apple would go insanely even lower. Uh oh. Apple is shooting up.


    So the same analysts who looked like incompetent fools for forecasting 1000 now look like incompetent fools for forecasting that the new phones would flop and the company would disappear. And those analysts are even more angry and upset. They blame apple for burning them rather than blaming themselves for their own short sightedness a? incompetence.

    The rule: and I have learned this the hard way. Leave emotions at home when you go to Wall Street or you will get burned. I don't care if you're trading or analyzing. Be objective not emotional.

    Any objective analysis of apple right now will conclude the stock is going only one direction over the next months at least: up.

    But the burned analysts will wait and pray it falls. Imao.
  • Reply 63 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by 512ke View Post



    The irony here is so huge. Analysts or many of them at least, insanely predicted that apple would rise to 1000 per share. When instead of this the stock got cut in half, said analysts looked like ignorant fools. They got mad. And they wanted apple to go down. And it was going down and down and down. So they felt justified and empowered again. So they predicted apple would go insanely even lower. Uh oh. Apple is shooting up.





    So the same analysts who looked like incompetent fools for forecasting 1000 now look like incompetent fools for forecasting that the new phones would flop and the company would disappear. And those analysts are even more angry and upset. They blame apple for burning them rather than blaming themselves for their own short sightedness a? incompetence.



    The rule: and I have learned this the hard way. Leave emotions at home when you go to Wall Street or you will get burned. I don't care if you're trading or analyzing. Be objective not emotional.



    Any objective analysis of apple right now will conclude the stock is going only one direction over the next months at least: up.



    But the burned analysts will wait and pray it falls. Imao.

     

    How do you know if these self-serving shills lost or made money? They probably were selling even as they were proclaiming "Apple's going to $1,000". Now, I'm certain as they continue to deride the stock they are purchasing more (or at least advising their slow-witted clients to do so).

  • Reply 64 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Ireland View Post





    What's there to laugh at? They know full well what they are up to. I personally think there needs to be laws about what these guys can claim about a stock on the public stage. They are within the law, but are behaving in a grossly unethical matter.

    Yep, you got that right - it's the beloved US concept of "freedom of speech" - anyone can say anything at any time apparently.

    What I don't understand is why anyone listens - surely these so-called analysts have demonstrated, time and again, that their analyses are just words with nothing behind them.

    What I really cannot understand is the relationship between analyst predictions and AAPL stock prices.  I'm not a conspiracy-theorist, but it's hard not to think that someone is either irrationally listening to analyst blogs (how stupid are we?) or cynically generating wild predictions for price manipulation (capitalism at its finest).

    Whatever - we can't do much about it - and Apple will still continue to outperform, innovate and surprise.

  • Reply 65 of 106
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

     
    I mean, how can someone make such an astoundingly insane statement? ........ What twisted, irrational, psychotic logic. 


    Welcome to CNBC after 10 AM. A wasteland.

  • Reply 66 of 106
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    sumergo wrote: »
    Yep, you got that right - it's the beloved US concept of "freedom of speech" - anyone can say anything at any time apparently.



    Not true. Stock manipulation is illegal. If they knowingly spread false information and then profit from it, they could face SEC penalties.

    Of course, it's nearly impossible to prove that they knowingly spread false information, so they're not likely to get caught, but it CAN BE illegal.
  • Reply 67 of 106

    Apple did what they needed to do to drive this number up.  An aggressive buyback of old phones...it only follows people with credit for an iPhone5S were going to upgrade to it, how much did this impact the opening weekend?  

     

    Releasing the phone globally (think about it, Apple did 2 million in China the first weekend last year).  Assuming they matched that number this year and this years number drop to 7 million versus 5 million as a direct comparison.  What did they do in all the other markets they didnt sell to in September last year?  Say 1 million total?  Now we're down to 6 million versus 5 million in a true comparison of opening weekends.

     

    Needless to say a second model helped sales to a degree.

     

    It seems pretty transparent Apple did as much as possible to front load sales so the first weekend "destroyed" last years number, and having 9 million phones available to sell is by itself pretty impressive, but the reality is how many of these sales were just accelerated sales that were captured in from October through December last year? at a minimum 2 million from China alone and probably closer to 3.  Given orders are backed up into October, and it is the holiday quarter, next quarter should be fine as well, but how will overall sales compare to the comparable quarters in 11 and 12?  In short is this going to provide a long term boost to the stock or will it be just a temporary shot in the arm that wears off as sales slow again after December?

     

    Apple needs another revenue source to materially impact EPS.   Phones alone have done about all they can do.

  • Reply 68 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    Not true. Stock manipulation is illegal. If they knowingly spread false information and then profit from it, they could face SEC penalties.



    Of course, it's nearly impossible to prove that they knowingly spread false information, so they're not likely to get caught, but it CAN BE illegal.

     

    It would be difficult, if not impossible to prove this charge. Do these hacks actually buy and sell stocks? Do they merely advise companies or individuals to buy or sell? Are they essentially freelancing salespeople hired by financial houses to throw sand in the eyes of each other to see who blinks first?

  • Reply 69 of 106
    larz2112 wrote: »
    The 5c price seems a little high to me too, but I'm sure the folks at Apple who determined the 5c price point put significantly more research, thought and analysis into their decision than anyone who posts on Apple Insider, including myself. My own speculation as to why the 5s is outselling the 5c 3.5 to 1 during the first week of sales is that early adopters are more inclined to chose the high-end option with all the bells and whistles, and they tend to have more disposable income, meaning that $100 difference doesn't seem like much to them. Early adopters want the best, no matter what the cost. 
     
    I'm sure the 5s and 5c are selling pretty much as Apple expected them to sell the first week. Once the early-adopter feeding frenzy is over I think we'll see more cost-conscious consumers entering the waters and within a few months the 5c sales will start gaining ground on the 5s and will eventually overtake the 5s in monthly sales.

    Good points. Yours was probably the only decent response to my comment and brings up a point I did not consider. (The fact that someone managed to read my words and think I was implying the 5c is a failure is crazy. How does 9m phones in 3 days ever mean failure?).

    I am trying to determine the Apple strategy with the 5c.

    I speculated that based on the fact that it didn't outsell the 5s in the first week apple either mispriced it (unlikely) or they never wanted it to be the top seller. They wanted it to make the upsell to the 5s far easier.

    You bring up a good point that 1st week sales probably do not reflect the price conscious customers and that once the die hards have got their 5s, the sales pendulum will swing back in favor of the 5cbecause of price.

    Again it is stupid for me to even think of calling the 5c a failure because the whole point of my post was that I am not sure what Apple's 5c strategy is. I can't call something a failure when I don't even know what goal it is supposed to achieve.
  • Reply 70 of 106
    don108 wrote: »
    "Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray
    Sales numbers are higher than expected, but that may be due to retained inventory rather than sales to consumers."

    Gene, Gene, Gene. Are you living in some sort of parallel universe where a limited number of units available for sale ("retained inventory") yields higher sales numbers? That's like saying "We only had 100 widgets to sell and were were able to sell 150 of 'em."

    Bwhahahahaha.

    It's more like we made 100 widgets but had 50 leftover before these new improved widgets came out so we're including them in the sales figures, but even with that I don't believe old inventory of iPhones accounted for more than a few hundred thousand.
  • Reply 71 of 106
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,705member
    tkell31 wrote: »
    Apple did what they needed to do to drive this number up.  An aggressive buyback of old phones...it only follows people with credit for an iPhone5S were going to upgrade to it, how much did this impact the opening weekend?  

    Releasing the phone globally (think about it, Apple did 2 million in China the first weekend last year).  Assuming they matched that number this year and this years number drop to 7 million versus 5 million as a direct comparison.  What did they do in all the other markets they didnt sell to in September last year?  Say 1 million total?  Now we're down to 6 million versus 5 million in a true comparison of opening weekends.

    Needless to say a second model helped sales to a degree.

    It seems pretty transparent Apple did as much as possible to front load sales so the first weekend "destroyed" last years number, and having 9 million phones available to sell is by itself pretty impressive, but the reality is how many of these sales were just accelerated sales that were captured in from October through December last year? at a minimum 2 million from China alone and probably closer to 3.  Given orders are backed up into October, and it is the holiday quarter, next quarter should be fine as well, but how will overall sales compare to the comparable quarters in 11 and 12?  In short is this going to provide a long term boost to the stock or will it be just a temporary shot in the arm that wears off as sales slow again after December?

    Apple needs another revenue source to materially impact EPS.   Phones alone have done about all they can do.

    Outside of hardcore fans, people buy new phones when they need them or when their contracts are up. You can front load supply but you can't make people buy them.

    Have you met the iPad? That thing just print money.
  • Reply 72 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jkichline View Post



    Where is Al Franken when you need him? Congressional hearing please.

     

    Al Franken is a putz.

  • Reply 73 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jragosta View Post





    Not true. Stock manipulation is illegal. If they knowingly spread false information and then profit from it, they could face SEC penalties.



    Of course, it's nearly impossible to prove that they knowingly spread false information, so they're not likely to get caught, but it CAN BE illegal.

     

    I rest my case:  They (the supposed analysts) are not "overtly manipulating any stock", they are merely expressing  "their professional opinions".  Nothing wrong with that - your are opinions are exactly worth as much as mine - it's the American way!

     

    There is no "false information" to be spread when I am just offering an opinion - it's just an opinion.  Of course, if someone's stock crashes because of my comments - I'm soooo sorry - it was just an opinion - no-one should have listened to me.

     

    Now that's good advice.

  • Reply 74 of 106
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by dasanman69 View Post







    The keyword is 'seems', this is how stockholders view Apple even though we know different.

    Another concern of stockholders, many believe the magic of Apple died when SJ did.



    The author does also lavish praise upon Apple, and he wrote nothing with any conviction, it's all a bunch of 'what ifs'.

     

    So as I said, nothing but the same yearly bleating about how Apple is no longer innovative, blah blah blah. Just look back when the iPod came out. It was nearly universally panned by people (No wireless. Less storage than a Nomad. Lame).  The iPhone had plenty of detractors when it came out.  The iPad was mocked before and after it was announced for all sorts of reasons. And almost every new iPhone has always had numerous people whining about it being iterative not innovative even before Jobs died. So as I said, can you point to something of substance in that article rather than just the same rehashed crap that we see every year?

  • Reply 75 of 106
    Timothy Arcuri, Cowen & Company

    evaluated very well.
  • Reply 76 of 106
    mikejones wrote: »
    So as I said, nothing but the same yearly bleating about how Apple is no longer innovative, blah blah blah. Just look back when the iPod came out. It was nearly universally panned by people (No wireless. Less storage than a Nomad. Lame).  The iPhone had plenty of detractors when it came out.  The iPad was mocked before and after it was announced for all sorts of reasons. And almost every new iPhone has always had numerous people whining about it being iterative not innovative even before Jobs died. So as I said, can you point to something of substance in that article rather than just the same rehashed crap that we see every year?

    Again, the author doesn’t outright say that Apple isn't innovating, he just said that it seems like it. Unfortunately sometimes perception is stronger than reality.
  • Reply 77 of 106
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    Again, the author doesn’t outright say that Apple isn't innovating, he just said that it seems like it. Unfortunately sometimes perception is stronger than reality.

    This is true. It's why Phil said what he said at WWDC.

    "Can't innovate anymore my ass" was birthed from the perception from outsiders that Apple doesn't innovate anymore.

    Let's hope that perception will die once and for all this next 12 months. According to Cook there is a lot to look forward to.
  • Reply 78 of 106
    alfiejralfiejr Posts: 1,524member
    bottom line:

    the 5s is a smash hit, and Touch ID is a "killer" feature.

    sales of high end android just got iced until they catch up.

    next come the new iPads with Touch ID.

    Apple will have a monster fourth quarter.
  • Reply 79 of 106

    Quote:



    Originally Posted by Larz2112 View Post

     

     

    The 5c price seems a little high to me too, but I'm sure the folks at Apple who determined the 5c price point put significantly more research, thought and analysis into their decision than anyone who posts on Apple Insider, including myself. My own speculation as to why the 5s is outselling the 5c 3.5 to 1 during the first week of sales is that early adopters are more inclined to chose the high-end option with all the bells and whistles, and they tend to have more disposable income, meaning that $100 difference doesn't seem like much to them. Early adopters want the best, no matter what the cost. 

     


    I'm sure the 5s and 5c are selling pretty much as Apple expected them to sell the first week. Once the early-adopter feeding frenzy is over I think we'll see more cost-conscious consumers entering the waters and within a few months the 5c sales will start gaining ground on the 5s and will eventually overtake the 5s in monthly sales.


     

    I'd just like to highlight is the prices outside the US:

     


    US:


    16GB 5S (unlocked), $649


    16GB 5C (unlocked), $549


     


    UK:

    16GB 5S (unlocked), £549 = $881

    16GB 5C (unlocked), £469 = $752

     

    France:

    16GB 5S (unlocked), €699 = $943

    16GB 5C (unlocked), €599 = $808

     

    Australia:

    16GB 5S (unlocked), A$869 = $820

    16GB 5C (unlocked), A$739 = $698

     

    The gap between what you pay in the US and what you pay outside the US is absurd - it's nearly a 50% premium.

  • Reply 80 of 106
    jragostajragosta Posts: 10,473member
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    It's more like we made 100 widgets but had 50 leftover before these new improved widgets came out so we're including them in the sales figures, but even with that I don't believe old inventory of iPhones accounted for more than a few hundred thousand.

    Two issues:
    1. As you said, the number of unsold iPhones is minimal. Both the 5S and 5C are backordered, so I doubt if there were many sitting on shelves today.

    2. Cook said that they SOLD 9 M phones. It's not clear whether Apple's system would include a phone in inventory as a sale or not.
    sumergo wrote: »
    I rest my case:  They (the supposed analysts) are not "overtly manipulating any stock", they are merely expressing  "their professional opinions".  Nothing wrong with that - your are opinions are exactly worth as much as mine - it's the American way!

    There is no "false information" to be spread when I am just offering an opinion - it's just an opinion.  Of course, if someone's stock crashes because of my comments - I'm soooo sorry - it was just an opinion - no-one should have listened to me.

    Now that's good advice.

    That's not what you said. If you had said that they weren't manipulating the stock, that might have been defensible. Instead, you said that they could say whatever they wanted because of Freedom of Speech. I was simply pointing out that your premise was wrong. They can NOT legally say whatever they want. There are a lot of things they could say that would be illegal.

    The fact that they're getting away with it doesn't change the fact that you were wrong.
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