Someone else said that and then basically went on to say they were going to buy the 5s. Loving it doesn't necessarily mean buying it.
There is a thread on MacRumors with 5C owners and everyone there loves it. In fact a few people who were fed up waiting for a 5S got a 5C instead and love it. I still contend Apple's marketing around the 5C is flawed. Since thy kept 5 in the nomenclature and made a point of referencing the 5 in the keynote and video the media was able to spin it as last years phone in colored plastic. And then spin it as a downgrade suggesting that Apple replaced the "premium" aluminum and glass with cheap plastic. What's frustrating about it is most, if not all of the 5C reviews have been very positive. Most of the posts I see on message boards from owners are very positive. In fact some have said they think this is the best iPhone in terms of build quality and how it feels in the hand that Apple has ever produced. But yet it has this negative connotation as last years phone.
I think Apple's strategy of having two iPhone lines is a good one. But I think they need to change the naming and marketing. If they're going to keep the colored theme on the cheaper iPhone maybe call them iPhone and iPhone color. Anything to get away from referencing the prior years phone. I'm guessing cheaper Android and Nokia devices aren't using the latest and greatest technology yet they don't get knocked for selling last years phone as something new. And from the AnandTech review the 5C is very competitive with flagship Android and Windows devices. I think the 5C could better stand on its own as a really great phone it Apple didn't tie it so closely to the 5.
There is a thread on MacRumors with 5C owners and everyone there loves it. In fact a few people who were fed up waiting for a 5S got a 5C instead and love it. I still contend Apple's marketing around the 5C is flawed. Since thy kept 5 in the nomenclature and made a point of referencing the 5 in the keynote and video the media was able to spin it as last years phone in colored plastic. And then spin it as a downgrade suggesting that Apple replaced the "premium" aluminum and glass with cheap plastic. What's frustrating about it is most, if not all of the 5C reviews have been very positive. Most of the posts I see on message boards from owners are very positive. In fact some have said they think this is the best iPhone in terms of build quality and how it feels in the hand that Apple has ever produced. But yet it has this negative connotation as last years phone.
I think Apple's strategy of having two iPhone lines is a good one. But I think they need to change the naming and marketing. If they're going to keep the colored theme on the cheaper iPhone maybe call them iPhone and iPhone color. Anything to get away from referencing the prior years phone. I'm guessing cheaper Android and Nokia devices aren't using the latest and greatest technology yet they don't get knocked for selling last years phone as something new. And from the AnandTech review the 5C is very competitive with flagship Android and Windows devices. I think the 5C could better stand on its own as a really great phone it Apple didn't tie it so closely to the 5.
I didn't say I hated the 5c or anyone else hates the 5c. Just to make that clear.
i think he was referring to the usage data that showed the 5S sold at a 3 to 1 ratio with the 5C. That would give the 5C opening weekend over 2 million units sold. Do you know how many phones sold 2 million units+ in one weekend this year?
5S
5C
S4
No, that is not what the poster said. The poster seemed to be referring to stats that showed a direct comparison to other manufacturers.
Oh, forget it. The rest of us know that the stats aren't available. You can believe whatever you wish.
[the funniest part about all of this is the fact that when I used the Localytics data to show that the 5c wasn't selling well in China (1:9 against the 5s) and Japan (1:8 against the 5s), this same poster, and a few others, were all over me saying that the Localytics data wasn't a reliable indicator of anything]
It's also time dependent. When I first saw it, I didn't like it. After using it for a couple of days, I was completely neutral - not caring one way or the other. Now, I like it moderately well (I don't think I'll ever say it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I never get that excited about appearance, anyway).
i think he was referring to the usage data that showed the 5S sold at a 3 to 1 ratio with the 5C. That would give the 5C opening weekend over 2 million units sold. Do you know how many phones sold 2 million units+ in one weekend this year?
5S
5C
S4
Compound that with the fact that there are multiple analyses from multiple different sources. EVERY ONE has the 5C being a decent seller. The estimates range from 2 M to about 3.5 M. The carrier results listed (new AI thread) confirm that the 5C is selling well.
Now, it's possible that the inventory levels are a bit higher than they would ordinarily be right after launch, but if so, that's because the carriers over-ordered. Even if the low end of the range is correct (2 M), that's an incredible result for what's essentially last year's phone. If the carriers and retailers ordered more than that with the expectation that sales would be even better, then it's their fault. I can't imagine any rational process of thinking that it would be much better than that. Even at 2 M, it's in the top 10 phones of all time - and probably #1 of phones released using year old technology.
Anyone else in the world would kill to have a phone flop with 2 M sales in a weekend.
Oh, and btw, the argument that it's too close to the 5S price and so people are choosing the 5S instead is silly. Don't you think Apple would RATHER have people buying the high end phone? That's even better for Apple than if they bought the 5C.
Finally, the story on the 5C is still out. The 5S is one that's going to sell incredibly well at launch because it breaks new ground. The 5S is a style change of an existing phone, so I would expect its sales to be steadier with less of a peak. Whatever the 5S/5C demand was over the launch weekend, I would expect it to drop over time.
This is why the 5c is so different than the 4s when the 4s was in the mid-tier spot last year... the marketing. This is also the reason I believe that Apple had the 5c positioned as a volume seller. It was never meant to sell like previous phones in this position. It was built as a phone to increase volume.
I believe you're correct. What could be happening is Apple is experimenting with the price. If this promo works, we might see a price adjustment. They did this with the rMBP ($200 Best Buy gift cards) about a month before dropping the price of the entire product line.
I wasn't surprised the 5c wasn't a $350 phone. I was a bit surprised it was a $550 phone in its base form. I thought they'd use it as an opportunity to drop the 4s and sell a base version for $450 (perhaps with only 8GB), going to a two-device, rather than three-device strategy. They might yet do that. It seems clear that the 5c isn't cannibalizing the 5s. They have some room on pricing.
I believe you're correct. What could be happening is Apple is experimenting with the price. If this promo works, we might see a price adjustment. They did this with the rMBP ($200 Best Buy gift cards) about a month before dropping the price of the entire product line.
I wasn't surprised the 5c wasn't a $350 phone. I was a bit surprised it was a $550 phone in its base form. I thought they'd use it as an opportunity to drop the 4s and sell a base version for $450 (perhaps with only 8GB), going to a two-device, rather than three-device strategy. They might yet do that. It seems clear that the 5c isn't cannibalizing the 5s. They have some room on pricing.
$450 would seem to be the price to get the 5c to really move. Some Chinese vendors have dropped their price to that equivalent and Virgin also started at that price.
Compound that with the fact that there are multiple analyses from multiple different sources. EVERY ONE has the 5C being a decent seller. The estimates range from 2 M to about 3.5 M. The carrier results listed (new AI thread) confirm that the 5C is selling well.
Now, it's possible that the inventory levels are a bit higher than they would ordinarily be right after launch, but if so, that's because the carriers over-ordered. Even if the low end of the range is correct (2 M), that's an incredible result for what's essentially last year's phone. If the carriers and retailers ordered more than that with the expectation that sales would be even better, then it's their fault.
Anyone else in the world would kill to have a phone flop with 2 M sales in a weekend.
Finally, the story on the 5C is still out. The 5S is one that's going to sell incredibly well at launch because it breaks new ground. The 5S is a style change of an existing phone, so I would expect its sales to be steadier with less of a peak. Whatever the 5S/5C demand was over the launch weekend, I would expect it to drop over time.
It depends on what Apple's goal is with the 5c. If it's just a way to sell "last year's phone" in an easier to manufacture, and cheaper way, then it succeeded. However, they did add the new Qualcomm chip expanding global LTE capabilities, and they are pushing it heavily through marketing, and so it's also entirely possible that they were looking to expand the market in and outside the US. If so, then it remains to be seen whether that will happen.
As for the carriers over-ordering, there are multiple possibilities. One is that they expected people to buy it in bigger numbers than the 4s last year because it was "new" (even though it's pretty obvious to even the average customer that it's essentially last year's iPhone). Another is that they knew they wouldn't have enough of the 5s and were hoping that they could "down-sell" the 5c to people who came in looking for the 5s (remember, the carriers couldn't care less which model you buy since they just want to get you to sign/extend a contract). If so, that doesn't appear to be happening.
If Apple dropped the price before September 2014, they would be admitting they made a mistake. That's something Apple never does.
The most I expect is an entry level 8GB model released for $450 some time after the holidays. The 16GB and 32GB will remain the same price until the next iPhone is released.
They dropped the price of the original iPhone after 74 days. They also dropped the price of the 13" rMBP after 4 months. While I'm sure they will adjust their production numbers if the 5s is outselling the 5c (or outperforming its budget while the 5c underperforms), there's probably a limit to the number of 5s they can make. They'll want to sell the 5cs that they have. If it means the 5c is now "$49" instead of "$99" that may be a trade-off Apple is willing to make.
Except ... it's a cheaper plastic version brought to you at no saving whatsoever.
I really, REALLY don’t think you comprehend what it is. It’s $100 less than the 5S. That’s the savings. It was never going to be anything other than what it is. It was never going to cost less than the 5 would have during the same timeframe. It is the mid-range phone from Apple. Just like every other phone before.
Originally Posted by KPOM
It looks more and more like Apple just overestimated demand at the $99 price point.
Looks more and more like you don’t know what you’re talking about.
Looks more and more like you don’t know what you’re talking about.
We'll find out in a month as Island Hermit points out, when we see where the 5c ranks at each of the carriers. It seems very unusual that this new, heavily marketed device is already being discounted while lots of people who ordered the iPhone 5s haven't even received it yet. I'm an AAPL shareholder. I want them to sell lots of the 5c. It just doesn't seem that it is selling as well as the 5s right now. Launch day is one thing (of course the 5c wouldn't be the phone that people waited in line for). But it's been all of 2 weeks now and the 5c is already on "sale." The logical explanation is that it isn't selling as well as Apple and the retailers would like.
They don't need a "promotion" to bring people into the store. The 5s is already doing that. Not even Wal-Mart will sell a phone as a loss leader.
I doubt if that was the original strategy. However in Summer when they looked at the figures for production, they probably thought that they would get lots of orders for the 5C anyway from Japan and China, and other new markets and there was no need or available capacity, at least in the run up to Christmas/Chinese New Year to sell the 5C at the lower price - which would mean the price of the 4S. Or they have a newer product to come early next year. Or both.
However they now have a pricing model where you pay $100 for more storage in the 5C, or $100 for a faster chip, 64 bit arch, M7, touch screen, faster GPU etc in the 5S. I bet sales of the 5C higher end model are low.
You got to be kidding???? Apple plan the production in Summer??? When did they order the parts for the 9M 5s and 5c they sold and how long will the supplier take to produce and deliver all those parts to Apple? Look at how many version of 5s and 5c that Apple produced around the globe. There are at least 5 versions of 5s and 5c (A1530, A1528 etc. etc.) around China region. Producing that many version of 5s/5c on top of the color/capacity variation is an organized chaos. Apple has to talk to the telecom around the world 9 months or so before launch about the features of the phone and price point of the phones. And once they gather all the order from telecom around the world (and their special requirement in term of LTE bank that their phone will support, GSM vs CDMA, TD-LTE vs FD-LTE), Apple need to figure out a launch plan and production plan that go with it. And the production plan depend on the the parts from suppliers and the order has to be in at least 6-7 months for the long lead item before production started (think you can just walk in and ask Qcom to ship Apple 9m of their LTE chip with less than a few months of ramp up time is just plan carzy).
4s has been a pretty good products for Apple last year when Iphone 5 was the latest toy. You can make the same argument last year for the $100 difference and you get the latest toys. But yet 4s sold pretty well. And you can make the same argument about 4 vs 4s last year. If you have taken any economic 101 course at all, you know demand is elastic. And there are people who won't spend any more than necessary. The new toys in 5s is wonderful for the tech orient guy/gals (I have a 5s now), but for someone who is not interested in tech feature (e.g. my wife), 5c is doing perfectly fine. Why would they spend another $100 for features that they don't want? The number of 5c sales may not be as high as 5s (btw we need to give the 5c activation data mature a little bit more before we can tell the split between 5s vs 5c). But 5c sales bar is not set against 5s. The bar is set against the 4s sales last year.
Apple wasn't producing the 5C in winter. Nor in Spring in any capacity. Apple ramps up a month or two (probably) before not a quarter before. Else Apple could be left with massive inventory.
I am talking about production in volume not ordering of parts. If apple were ordering parts for full production in January the 5S would not be in short supply. You seem to be talking about ordering parts for pre-production. But nobody knows yield until you got into full production.
As for elasticity of demand that's what I am arguing for when I say that price reductions will spur sales.
Apple wasn't producing the 5C in winter. Nor in Spring in any capacity. Apple ramps up a month or two (probably) before not a quarter before. Else Apple could be left with massive inventory.
I am talking about production in volume not ordering of parts. If apple were ordering parts for full production in January the 5S would not be in short supply. You seem to be talking about ordering parts for pre-production. But nobody knows yield until you got into full production.
As for elasticity of demand that's what I am arguing for when I say that price reductions will spur sales.
This is the quote from your original post:
"However in Summer when they looked at the figures for production, they probably thought that they would get lots of orders for the 5C anyway from Japan and China"
My point is that telecom ordering and part ordering started about 6- 9 months before launch. Around 6 months or so before launch, Apple already know exactly how many orders of what 5s/5c version (A1530 or A1528 etc...) that each telecom want and they start to plan out the production and launch strategy. Each of model need to be certified in the country that the phone will operate (e.g. There are at least 3 versions of 5s certified in China and yet another version certified in Hong Kong which works in China network. And we have 3 or 4 version of 5s in US also) and it takes a few months to get the certification. Production schedule depend on the order they received and launch strategy and not the way you advocated. They don't look around in summer time to figure where the demand for 5c will come from. They figured all these out way before they started the first production run.
It is also interesting that 5c offer a 32g model while Apple only offered 16G for 4s last year. It looks like they believe that 5c is going to be viewed as a new product line by consumer and there will be demand for higher capacity 5c and it is not competing base on lower cost only. I am optimistic about 5c sales once the advertisement started in US and Europe.
Once again. I am talking about production not orders. Only when mass production starts can they estimate how many they can produce. And only then will they price. As for the higher capacity 5C I bet that is not selling at all. It's the same price as the 5S.
If Apple gauged orders from carriers based on price the 5C price would have leaked months before. As it was it was a huge surprise.
Comments
I think Apple's strategy of having two iPhone lines is a good one. But I think they need to change the naming and marketing. If they're going to keep the colored theme on the cheaper iPhone maybe call them iPhone and iPhone color. Anything to get away from referencing the prior years phone. I'm guessing cheaper Android and Nokia devices aren't using the latest and greatest technology yet they don't get knocked for selling last years phone as something new. And from the AnandTech review the 5C is very competitive with flagship Android and Windows devices. I think the 5C could better stand on its own as a really great phone it Apple didn't tie it so closely to the 5.
There is a thread on MacRumors with 5C owners and everyone there loves it. In fact a few people who were fed up waiting for a 5S got a 5C instead and love it. I still contend Apple's marketing around the 5C is flawed. Since thy kept 5 in the nomenclature and made a point of referencing the 5 in the keynote and video the media was able to spin it as last years phone in colored plastic. And then spin it as a downgrade suggesting that Apple replaced the "premium" aluminum and glass with cheap plastic. What's frustrating about it is most, if not all of the 5C reviews have been very positive. Most of the posts I see on message boards from owners are very positive. In fact some have said they think this is the best iPhone in terms of build quality and how it feels in the hand that Apple has ever produced. But yet it has this negative connotation as last years phone.
I think Apple's strategy of having two iPhone lines is a good one. But I think they need to change the naming and marketing. If they're going to keep the colored theme on the cheaper iPhone maybe call them iPhone and iPhone color. Anything to get away from referencing the prior years phone. I'm guessing cheaper Android and Nokia devices aren't using the latest and greatest technology yet they don't get knocked for selling last years phone as something new. And from the AnandTech review the 5C is very competitive with flagship Android and Windows devices. I think the 5C could better stand on its own as a really great phone it Apple didn't tie it so closely to the 5.
I didn't say I hated the 5c or anyone else hates the 5c. Just to make that clear.
You will never see it. PERIOD. Apple never releases phone sales by tier.
In other words, the poster was bullshitting us. Thank you.
i think he was referring to the usage data that showed the 5S sold at a 3 to 1 ratio with the 5C. That would give the 5C opening weekend over 2 million units sold. Do you know how many phones sold 2 million units+ in one weekend this year?
5S
5C
S4
No, that is not what the poster said. The poster seemed to be referring to stats that showed a direct comparison to other manufacturers.
Oh, forget it. The rest of us know that the stats aren't available. You can believe whatever you wish.
[the funniest part about all of this is the fact that when I used the Localytics data to show that the 5c wasn't selling well in China (1:9 against the 5s) and Japan (1:8 against the 5s), this same poster, and a few others, were all over me saying that the Localytics data wasn't a reliable indicator of anything]
It's also time dependent. When I first saw it, I didn't like it. After using it for a couple of days, I was completely neutral - not caring one way or the other. Now, I like it moderately well (I don't think I'll ever say it's the greatest thing since sliced bread, but I never get that excited about appearance, anyway).
Compound that with the fact that there are multiple analyses from multiple different sources. EVERY ONE has the 5C being a decent seller. The estimates range from 2 M to about 3.5 M. The carrier results listed (new AI thread) confirm that the 5C is selling well.
Now, it's possible that the inventory levels are a bit higher than they would ordinarily be right after launch, but if so, that's because the carriers over-ordered. Even if the low end of the range is correct (2 M), that's an incredible result for what's essentially last year's phone. If the carriers and retailers ordered more than that with the expectation that sales would be even better, then it's their fault. I can't imagine any rational process of thinking that it would be much better than that. Even at 2 M, it's in the top 10 phones of all time - and probably #1 of phones released using year old technology.
Anyone else in the world would kill to have a phone flop with 2 M sales in a weekend.
Oh, and btw, the argument that it's too close to the 5S price and so people are choosing the 5S instead is silly. Don't you think Apple would RATHER have people buying the high end phone? That's even better for Apple than if they bought the 5C.
Finally, the story on the 5C is still out. The 5S is one that's going to sell incredibly well at launch because it breaks new ground. The 5S is a style change of an existing phone, so I would expect its sales to be steadier with less of a peak. Whatever the 5S/5C demand was over the launch weekend, I would expect it to drop over time.
This is why the 5c is so different than the 4s when the 4s was in the mid-tier spot last year... the marketing. This is also the reason I believe that Apple had the 5c positioned as a volume seller. It was never meant to sell like previous phones in this position. It was built as a phone to increase volume.
I believe you're correct. What could be happening is Apple is experimenting with the price. If this promo works, we might see a price adjustment. They did this with the rMBP ($200 Best Buy gift cards) about a month before dropping the price of the entire product line.
I wasn't surprised the 5c wasn't a $350 phone. I was a bit surprised it was a $550 phone in its base form. I thought they'd use it as an opportunity to drop the 4s and sell a base version for $450 (perhaps with only 8GB), going to a two-device, rather than three-device strategy. They might yet do that. It seems clear that the 5c isn't cannibalizing the 5s. They have some room on pricing.
I believe you're correct. What could be happening is Apple is experimenting with the price. If this promo works, we might see a price adjustment. They did this with the rMBP ($200 Best Buy gift cards) about a month before dropping the price of the entire product line.
I wasn't surprised the 5c wasn't a $350 phone. I was a bit surprised it was a $550 phone in its base form. I thought they'd use it as an opportunity to drop the 4s and sell a base version for $450 (perhaps with only 8GB), going to a two-device, rather than three-device strategy. They might yet do that. It seems clear that the 5c isn't cannibalizing the 5s. They have some room on pricing.
$450 would seem to be the price to get the 5c to really move. Some Chinese vendors have dropped their price to that equivalent and Virgin also started at that price.
Compound that with the fact that there are multiple analyses from multiple different sources. EVERY ONE has the 5C being a decent seller. The estimates range from 2 M to about 3.5 M. The carrier results listed (new AI thread) confirm that the 5C is selling well.
Now, it's possible that the inventory levels are a bit higher than they would ordinarily be right after launch, but if so, that's because the carriers over-ordered. Even if the low end of the range is correct (2 M), that's an incredible result for what's essentially last year's phone. If the carriers and retailers ordered more than that with the expectation that sales would be even better, then it's their fault.
Anyone else in the world would kill to have a phone flop with 2 M sales in a weekend.
Finally, the story on the 5C is still out. The 5S is one that's going to sell incredibly well at launch because it breaks new ground. The 5S is a style change of an existing phone, so I would expect its sales to be steadier with less of a peak. Whatever the 5S/5C demand was over the launch weekend, I would expect it to drop over time.
It depends on what Apple's goal is with the 5c. If it's just a way to sell "last year's phone" in an easier to manufacture, and cheaper way, then it succeeded. However, they did add the new Qualcomm chip expanding global LTE capabilities, and they are pushing it heavily through marketing, and so it's also entirely possible that they were looking to expand the market in and outside the US. If so, then it remains to be seen whether that will happen.
As for the carriers over-ordering, there are multiple possibilities. One is that they expected people to buy it in bigger numbers than the 4s last year because it was "new" (even though it's pretty obvious to even the average customer that it's essentially last year's iPhone). Another is that they knew they wouldn't have enough of the 5s and were hoping that they could "down-sell" the 5c to people who came in looking for the 5s (remember, the carriers couldn't care less which model you buy since they just want to get you to sign/extend a contract). If so, that doesn't appear to be happening.
If Apple dropped the price before September 2014, they would be admitting they made a mistake. That's something Apple never does.
The most I expect is an entry level 8GB model released for $450 some time after the holidays. The 16GB and 32GB will remain the same price until the next iPhone is released.
They dropped the price of the original iPhone after 74 days. They also dropped the price of the 13" rMBP after 4 months. While I'm sure they will adjust their production numbers if the 5s is outselling the 5c (or outperforming its budget while the 5c underperforms), there's probably a limit to the number of 5s they can make. They'll want to sell the 5cs that they have. If it means the 5c is now "$49" instead of "$99" that may be a trade-off Apple is willing to make.
It looks more and more like Apple just overestimated demand at the $99 price point.
http://www.macrumors.com/2013/10/04/walmart-drops-iphone-5c-pricing-to-45-on-contract-through-the-holidays/
I really, REALLY don’t think you comprehend what it is. It’s $100 less than the 5S. That’s the savings. It was never going to be anything other than what it is. It was never going to cost less than the 5 would have during the same timeframe. It is the mid-range phone from Apple. Just like every other phone before.
It looks more and more like Apple just overestimated demand at the $99 price point.
Looks more and more like you don’t know what you’re talking about.
It looks more and more like Apple just overestimated demand at the $99 price point.
http://www.macrumors.com/2013/10/04/walmart-drops-iphone-5c-pricing-to-45-on-contract-through-the-holidays/
This is why the October stats will be important.
If the 5c drops to #3 or #4 in the 4 top carriers then we'll know a little more.
If the 5c stays in the #2 spot at AT&T and Sprint, and especially if it moves to #2 at Verizon and t-Mobile, then we'll know it's a solid seller.
Looks more and more like you don’t know what you’re talking about.
We'll find out in a month as Island Hermit points out, when we see where the 5c ranks at each of the carriers. It seems very unusual that this new, heavily marketed device is already being discounted while lots of people who ordered the iPhone 5s haven't even received it yet. I'm an AAPL shareholder. I want them to sell lots of the 5c. It just doesn't seem that it is selling as well as the 5s right now. Launch day is one thing (of course the 5c wouldn't be the phone that people waited in line for). But it's been all of 2 weeks now and the 5c is already on "sale." The logical explanation is that it isn't selling as well as Apple and the retailers would like.
They don't need a "promotion" to bring people into the store. The 5s is already doing that. Not even Wal-Mart will sell a phone as a loss leader.
I doubt if that was the original strategy. However in Summer when they looked at the figures for production, they probably thought that they would get lots of orders for the 5C anyway from Japan and China, and other new markets and there was no need or available capacity, at least in the run up to Christmas/Chinese New Year to sell the 5C at the lower price - which would mean the price of the 4S. Or they have a newer product to come early next year. Or both.
However they now have a pricing model where you pay $100 for more storage in the 5C, or $100 for a faster chip, 64 bit arch, M7, touch screen, faster GPU etc in the 5S. I bet sales of the 5C higher end model are low.
You got to be kidding???? Apple plan the production in Summer??? When did they order the parts for the 9M 5s and 5c they sold and how long will the supplier take to produce and deliver all those parts to Apple? Look at how many version of 5s and 5c that Apple produced around the globe. There are at least 5 versions of 5s and 5c (A1530, A1528 etc. etc.) around China region. Producing that many version of 5s/5c on top of the color/capacity variation is an organized chaos. Apple has to talk to the telecom around the world 9 months or so before launch about the features of the phone and price point of the phones. And once they gather all the order from telecom around the world (and their special requirement in term of LTE bank that their phone will support, GSM vs CDMA, TD-LTE vs FD-LTE), Apple need to figure out a launch plan and production plan that go with it. And the production plan depend on the the parts from suppliers and the order has to be in at least 6-7 months for the long lead item before production started (think you can just walk in and ask Qcom to ship Apple 9m of their LTE chip with less than a few months of ramp up time is just plan carzy).
4s has been a pretty good products for Apple last year when Iphone 5 was the latest toy. You can make the same argument last year for the $100 difference and you get the latest toys. But yet 4s sold pretty well. And you can make the same argument about 4 vs 4s last year. If you have taken any economic 101 course at all, you know demand is elastic. And there are people who won't spend any more than necessary. The new toys in 5s is wonderful for the tech orient guy/gals (I have a 5s now), but for someone who is not interested in tech feature (e.g. my wife), 5c is doing perfectly fine. Why would they spend another $100 for features that they don't want? The number of 5c sales may not be as high as 5s (btw we need to give the 5c activation data mature a little bit more before we can tell the split between 5s vs 5c). But 5c sales bar is not set against 5s. The bar is set against the 4s sales last year.
Apple wasn't producing the 5C in winter. Nor in Spring in any capacity. Apple ramps up a month or two (probably) before not a quarter before. Else Apple could be left with massive inventory.
I am talking about production in volume not ordering of parts. If apple were ordering parts for full production in January the 5S would not be in short supply. You seem to be talking about ordering parts for pre-production. But nobody knows yield until you got into full production.
As for elasticity of demand that's what I am arguing for when I say that price reductions will spur sales.
@xofruitcake
Apple wasn't producing the 5C in winter. Nor in Spring in any capacity. Apple ramps up a month or two (probably) before not a quarter before. Else Apple could be left with massive inventory.
I am talking about production in volume not ordering of parts. If apple were ordering parts for full production in January the 5S would not be in short supply. You seem to be talking about ordering parts for pre-production. But nobody knows yield until you got into full production.
As for elasticity of demand that's what I am arguing for when I say that price reductions will spur sales.
This is the quote from your original post:
"However in Summer when they looked at the figures for production, they probably thought that they would get lots of orders for the 5C anyway from Japan and China"
My point is that telecom ordering and part ordering started about 6- 9 months before launch. Around 6 months or so before launch, Apple already know exactly how many orders of what 5s/5c version (A1530 or A1528 etc...) that each telecom want and they start to plan out the production and launch strategy. Each of model need to be certified in the country that the phone will operate (e.g. There are at least 3 versions of 5s certified in China and yet another version certified in Hong Kong which works in China network. And we have 3 or 4 version of 5s in US also) and it takes a few months to get the certification. Production schedule depend on the order they received and launch strategy and not the way you advocated. They don't look around in summer time to figure where the demand for 5c will come from. They figured all these out way before they started the first production run.
It is also interesting that 5c offer a 32g model while Apple only offered 16G for 4s last year. It looks like they believe that 5c is going to be viewed as a new product line by consumer and there will be demand for higher capacity 5c and it is not competing base on lower cost only. I am optimistic about 5c sales once the advertisement started in US and Europe.
If Apple gauged orders from carriers based on price the 5C price would have leaked months before. As it was it was a huge surprise.