Retina iPad mini forecast to outsell thinner 'iPad 5' nearly 2:1, if Apple meets demand

Posted:
in iPad edited January 2014
A high-resolution Retina display on the second-generation version of Apple's iPad mini is projected by investors to drive demand enough to keep it more popular than a thinner and lighter fifth-generation iPad, though there are concerns about supply constraints leading into the holiday shopping season.

Event


Like many others, analyst Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets expects that Apple will unveil a new iPad mini with Retina display at its product unveiling event next week. He also expects a new 9.7-inch iPad with a thinner bezel and lighter frame.

He sees the Retina iPad mini outselling the fifth-generation iPad by nearly two to one this holiday season, with the iPad mini taking a 65 percent share of Apple's overall tablet sales, and the 9.7-inch variety accounting for the remaining 35 percent.

But that would require Apple to meet demand for an iPad mini with Retina display, he cautioned. There have been recent reports suggesting that Apple could face supply constraints with its second-generation iPad mini, due to production of the device's expected Retina display.

To that end, analyst Ben A. Reitzes of of Barclays Capital separately said in a note to investors this week that he expects "major product constraints" for a new iPad mini with Retina display. Reitzes said he "wouldn't be surprised" if Apple was forced to ship the device later in the December quarter.

Mockup
Second-generation iPad mini mockup by Martin Hajek.


Meanwhile, analyst David Evanson of Canaccord Genuity has a different take: He expects that the slimmer fifth-generation iPad will actually outsell the Retina iPad mini during the holiday quarter due to anticipated supply constraints. His forecast calls for sales of 12.9 million "iPad 5" units, and 11.5 million Retina iPad mini units during the three-month frame.

Like Reitzes, Evanson believes that Apple could be forced to introduce the new iPad mini with a "delayed launch" in the December quarter. Once Apple can ramp up supply, Evanson sees the Retina iPad mini outselling the full-size fifth-generation iPad 14.4 million to 8.4 million in the March 2014 quarter.

Apple officially announced on Tuesday that it will hold a media event next week, on Oct. 22, to unveil new products. Updated iPads are widely expected to be the main focus of the event, which will take place at the Yerba Buena Center for the Arts in San Francisco, Calif.

Also likely to be featured in the keynote are OS X Mavericks and new Mac hardware, including the soon-to-be-released redesigned Mac Pro desktop. The event kicks off at 10 a.m. Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern next Tuesday, and AppleInsider will be there for full, live coverage.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 103
    quadra 610quadra 610 Posts: 6,735member

    The iPad 5 . . .  c.

     

     

    /s

  • Reply 2 of 103
    pazuzupazuzu Posts: 1,728member
    "A lot to cover" means more pixels on the mini, means Retina.
  • Reply 3 of 103
    Is this the same analyst that predicted the 5c would outsell the 5s?
  • Reply 4 of 103
    akqiesakqies Posts: 768member
    pazuzu wrote: »
    "A lot to cover" means more pixels on the mini, means Retina.

    I think it just means that they need to update iPods, iPads, Macs, Mac OS X, and possibly update the Apple TV and release a new product. Even if you remove those item items at the end there is still a lot to cover to get them ready for the holiday season.
  • Reply 5 of 103

    Nope.

  • Reply 6 of 103
    Nope.

    Quite right.
  • Reply 7 of 103
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    sog35 wrote: »
    just jack up the price of the mini

    iPad 499
    iPadMini 329
    iPadMini retina 399

    Jack up the price of the retina mini but keep the non retina $329? Is that some joke? Btw, when Apple released the 3rd gen iPad they didn't raise the price.
  • Reply 8 of 103
    herbapouherbapou Posts: 2,199member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    just jack up the price of the mini

     

    iPad 499

    iPadMini 329

    iPadMini retina 399


     

    Youre suggestion risk to enrage consumers.  With retina nexus tablets and retina amazon tablets selling at $200 there is a limit for Apple to overcharged and take big margins. At some point it just becomes a rip-off.

     

    imo Apple will keep the same price, like they always do.

  • Reply 9 of 103
    iPad mini retina $349-379 in that price range going up $100 for additional GB!

    Well that's what I think!
  • Reply 10 of 103
    pazuzupazuzu Posts: 1,728member
    akqies wrote: »
    I think it just means that they need to update iPods, iPads, Macs, Mac OS X, and possibly update the Apple TV and release a new product. Even if you remove those item items at the end there is still a lot to cover to get them ready for the holiday season.

    Will we get a iPod classic with a lightning port and fusion drive?
  • Reply 11 of 103
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

    Quite right.

     

    Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t the proper iPad still selling far better? 

  • Reply 12 of 103
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member
    rogifan wrote: »
    Jack up the price of the retina mini but keep the non retina $329? Is that some joke? Btw, when Apple released the 3rd gen iPad they didn't raise the price.

    I think the old mini becomes $279-299. But if they do retina and A7 (and possibly a fingerprint)- I'd fully expect a jump in price.

    While The iPad 3 didn't go up in price, it also only changed from A5 to A5X. You're talking with the mini to go from A5 to A7/A7X. If that happens- I'm all for $349-399
  • Reply 13 of 103
    akqiesakqies Posts: 768member
    pazuzu wrote: »
    Will we get a iPod classic with a lightning port and fusion drive?

    We don't yet have Fusion Drives in MBPs which is something I think people really want.

    I wouldn't even be sure the iPod Classic will continue to sell anywhere else but their online clearance store. At some point the number of buyers will drop to a point that continuing to produce more of the same tried-and-true iPod won't make sense to Apple. I think that's probably this year, but it's just a guess.
  • Reply 14 of 103
    andysolandysol Posts: 2,506member
    Maybe I’m wrong, but isn’t the proper iPad still selling far better? 

    I don't know where those numbers would be as they aren't released. Maybe from a third party group like best buy, macmall, etc?

    I wouldn't be surprised either way to be honest.
  • Reply 15 of 103
    charlitunacharlituna Posts: 7,162member
    I can't wait to see the BS excuses when there isn't a retina Mini (because Apple has no intention to release one any time soon)

    Or perhaps we'll just get a mass explosion of heads and be done with the analysts once and for all
  • Reply 16 of 103
    I think the analysts are all wrong.

    There will be no new iPad mini. Retina or otherwise. The iPad mini will be discontinued.

    The retina displays will all be reserved for the new iPhone 5p with a 7 inch screen. Who needs an iPad mini when you have phone with a 7" screen?

    The event on Oct 22 will be to reveal more new colors for the iPhone 5c. That is why the analysts think Apple is cutting orders for the 5c. Apple is really just adjusting 5c orders to handle the new colors. There will be 64 colors of iPhone available.

    In an associated move, Apple will announce that they have acquired Crayola.

    Finally Apple with announce a new partnership with Burberyy where Burberry will start making all its clothes with larger pockets to accommodate a 7 inch phone.

    Apple will also announce support for Java and Flash in iOS7.

    :P
  • Reply 17 of 103

    I can see the Mini outselling the iPad 5. It's all about mobility ! (And price!)

     

    I also think Apple with go Retina on the Mini. Remember last year how quickly Apple replaced the 30 pin connector on the entire iPad line?

     

    Apple likes uniformity in their product lines.

  • Reply 18 of 103
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,453member
    charlituna wrote: »
    I can't wait to see the BS excuses when there isn't a retina Mini (because Apple has no intention to release one any time soon)

    Or perhaps we'll just get a mass explosion of heads and be done with the analysts once and for all

    You could be right. I fear that you could be right. I dread that you may be right.

    And so on.

    On the other hand, why the thicker case and the presumably larger battery?

    Then again on your side, is that miniscule extra thickness enough to accommodate a retina display?

    Then on my side, only if it's IGZO!
  • Reply 19 of 103
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    just jack up the price of the mini

     

    iPad 499

    iPadMini 329

    iPadMini retina 399


    That would be utterly ridiculous. And it won't happen.

     

    iPad $499

    iPad mini $329

     

    I don't see any room for today's 1st gen iPad mini after gen 2 becomes available. Apple can't afford to lower the price on it AT ALL to maintain acceptable margin (this is not an iPhone).

  • Reply 20 of 103
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    just jack up the price of the mini

     

    iPad 499

    iPadMini 329

    iPadMini retina 399


    I'd like to see:

     

    iPad 499

    iPad mini 299

    iPad mini Retina 399

     

    The mini would be very, very attractive at $299 compared to $249 Android tablets. The psychological barrier of $3xx might be significant. The high-end Retina version would still eat at Android tab revenues and compensate Apple with profits that might be lost on the $299 mini.

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