Research shows Sept. quarter iPhone demand at 37M units, though Apple likely shipped less
If Apple could have met iPhone 5s demand in the recently concluded September quarter, the company could have sold as many as 37 million units, new data from Morgan Stanley has revealed.
Analyst Katy Huberty revealed on Friday that her firm's "Smartphone Tracker" research shows demand for the iPhone in the September quarter at 37 million units. However, due to supply constraints, she believes Apple likely shipped around 34.5 million units.
Verizon, the largest wireless carrier in the U.S., reported this week that it faced iPhone shortages at the end of the quarter, when the iPhone 5s launched and was faced with considerable demand. The carrier also revealed that it activated 3.9 million iPhones in the September quarter, a number that implies Apple likely shipped at least 32 million total units in the three-month period.
Huberty believes Apple will report revenue of $37 billion, gross margin of 37 percent, and earnings per share of $8 for the last quarter.
For the current December quarter, she expects Apple to ship a record 55 million units --?ahead of Wall Street consensus at 53 million. The "key variable" for the holiday season, Huberty said, is supply of the iPhone 5s, of which supply remains constrained.
Huberty's forecast calls for the iPhone 5s to account for 45 percent of total iPhone shipments this quarter, with gross margin growing to 38.7 percent, revenue reaching a record $55.6 billion, and earnings per share hitting $14.30. In her model, if the iPhone 5s were to instead account for half of all iPhone sales, gross margin would add 10 basis points, or 0.1 percent, to Apple's gross margins for the quarter, as well as an additional 16 cents in earnings per share.
Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its price target of $540 for AAPL stock, though Huberty's "bull case" for the company sees its shares growing to $686 within the next year.
Analyst Katy Huberty revealed on Friday that her firm's "Smartphone Tracker" research shows demand for the iPhone in the September quarter at 37 million units. However, due to supply constraints, she believes Apple likely shipped around 34.5 million units.
Verizon, the largest wireless carrier in the U.S., reported this week that it faced iPhone shortages at the end of the quarter, when the iPhone 5s launched and was faced with considerable demand. The carrier also revealed that it activated 3.9 million iPhones in the September quarter, a number that implies Apple likely shipped at least 32 million total units in the three-month period.
Huberty believes Apple will report revenue of $37 billion, gross margin of 37 percent, and earnings per share of $8 for the last quarter.
For the current December quarter, she expects Apple to ship a record 55 million units --?ahead of Wall Street consensus at 53 million. The "key variable" for the holiday season, Huberty said, is supply of the iPhone 5s, of which supply remains constrained.
Huberty's forecast calls for the iPhone 5s to account for 45 percent of total iPhone shipments this quarter, with gross margin growing to 38.7 percent, revenue reaching a record $55.6 billion, and earnings per share hitting $14.30. In her model, if the iPhone 5s were to instead account for half of all iPhone sales, gross margin would add 10 basis points, or 0.1 percent, to Apple's gross margins for the quarter, as well as an additional 16 cents in earnings per share.
Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its price target of $540 for AAPL stock, though Huberty's "bull case" for the company sees its shares growing to $686 within the next year.
Comments
Regardless- Demand for a completely sold out product is greater than the supply? We needed research for this conclusion?
Q1 2014 looks better, better unit sales AND margins should results in better EPS.
Apple shipped 26 millions iphones with 8.6 EPS in Q4 2012. So anything above 32 millions iphones is good in terms of unit sales. The problem is EPS, if Apple cant do better than $8.6 we are in a decline again.
Q1 2014 looks better, better unit sales AND margins should results in better EPS.
how true, the analysis are beginning to posture so to either make apple looks successful or a failure. At this point they are having a hard time figuring out what side of the fence they need to be on. As we read else where we have analysis putting out miss leading information and hedge fund and money managers are getting hold of the information ahead of time and setting up investment strategies to take advantage of the news, but it only works if all the analysis are leaning one way or another. At least Citibank got their hands slap for doing this last year. I am not sure why SEC is not fining the analysis since they are the one how are driving the activities.
Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.
For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
Katy Huberty. If she's ever right, it'll be entirely coincidental.
Quote:
But I am an analyst, I have to analyze and report nonsense.
Sure, go ahead and mock them. But they make 6 figures doing this. Don't think they really care about your mockery.
Doesn't matter as Apple stock will get hammered either way on the 29th. Meanwhile the Google lovefest continues....stock is up 10% pre market and getting closer to $1000 share.
What the heck is "smartphone tracker"?
Regardless- Demand for a completely sold out product is greater than the supply? We needed research for this conclusion?
Katy: I just wanted to get my name into the news cycle.
You really think Google is fairly valued? You think their quarter warrants a 10% increase? I think the market is in a bubble an over valued. Apple and Microsoft are maybe two tech companies more fairly valued. Facebook is up 5% today with a market cap of $133B. If it keeps current trajectory Facebook will have a higher market cap than Verizon, Merck, Coca Cola, Oracle, Citigroup, Visa. It already has surpassed companies like Pepsi, Cisco, Comcast, Intel Qualcomm and Disney. I think that's crazy. And don't even get me started on Amazon, a company valued at $140B even though it barely turns a profit. Apple probably makes more in one quarter than Amazon ever has in its entire existence. The bubble is going to burst. And it will be ugly when that happens.
I received my gold 5s today. This was surprising since I got a call from Sprint on Monday apologizing for the long delay and telling me that it would likely ship around 3 to 4 weeks. Any other people here receiving the gold 5s and were told it would be several more weeks? Maybe Apple is starting to really ramp up supply to meet demand faster than anticipated.
Yeah, and what happened in 2009? It's all bullshit.
I received my gold 5s today. This was surprising since I got a call from Sprint on Monday apologizing for the long delay and telling me that it would likely ship around 3 to 4 weeks. Any other people here receiving the gold 5s and were told it would be several more weeks? Maybe Apple is starting to really ramp up supply to meet demand faster than anticipated.
Good for you!
I'll be ordering mine (contract up in Nov). 5s, champagne/gold with a leather product (Red) case.
My GF's sister just got a yellow 5c last night, and this not a criticism, but I was surprised how heavy it was compared to the 5. It's almost as heavy as my 4s. Of course, I didn't say anything to her about it. Still a very beautiful phone. My GF is order a green one soon.
A couple of years ago, her sister and sister's boyfriend were so anti-Apple. BB's and HP crappy laptops. They lugged both their laptops and BB's to Paris. They called me from Paris here in Arizona and asked me to go over to their house and go to their HP desktops to check their email and read it to them. They could not access their email from their BB's or their laptops. They both have iPhones and MBA's and iPads now!
Stock market seems to be about emotion these days. Google is up over $112 and has now crossed $1000. There'a nothing in their quarter that really warrants at 12% jump in their stock IMO. But Wall Street wanted to see google at $1000 so that's what we get.
Speaking for myself, I am interested and concerned with all things Apple. Like many here, we loved Apple computers and the Apple philosophy before we ever bought stock in the company. Not quite sure what your motivations are.
Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.
For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
It should be that simple, but it is not, there is more news out there that Google is having issue than the made up news that Apple is failing when in fact they continue to make more money than Google quarter over quarter. Google learned to pander to the analysis thus the reason to ignore that fact that google continues to make one bad investment after another. Apple will not pander to the analysis if anything they call them idiots for trying to predict the future based on miss information so the analysis bad mouth them every change they get.
I personally think Google are the end of their run and it is going to get hard and hard for them to keep it growing. read the ad on iOS products producing more ad revenue over an Android, Remember Android was Google vehicle into the mobile ad space and its failing miserably for them. Apple is teaming with M$ and yahoo these days this is only more bad news for Google on mobile ad space, Also less and less people are using desktop and laptops to doing their internet searches. Google knows this, thus the Android Strategy, which is not working for them.
Who knows how many shares Apple bought back this quarter. My EPS estimate is over $10.
It is increasingly clear that people here care more about their few $AAPL shares than they care about the technology and products. Too bad.
I'm not sure how you derived at this conclusion. I doubt if too many people on here have any shares.
In the early days Apple had a vibe that struck a real positive chord with creative and intelligent people and, through thick and thin, that general feeling still exists today.
Apple's stuff is cool and I'm sure that's how most Apple fans feel.
Google keeps going up because it keeps growing its EPS while apple is flat because is EPS is flat. There is no mystery or magic or manipulations, its common sense. Google has a better multiple because it has a better growth outlook and apple is trading at lower multiple because its unclear it can continu to growth. That just how it works.
For Apple to increase its multiple investors need to believe it can growth its EPS, not its unit sales, its EPS
Well said!
The only thing I would perhaps take some exception to is your comment on EPS growth versus unit sale growth. I suspect the market would cheer additional revenue growth even with flat EPS. There is a concern that Apple isn't performing well enough in emerging markets. Some growth (and frankly doing some damage to some of the Chinese/Taiwanese/Korean competition) would be welcome as long as the overall Apple brand isn't damaged. With all the stories over the last few days about the 5C being a flop, I wonder if Apple hasn't squandered an opportunity to do some damage to Samsung, Lenovo etc. and grab some market share in China, India etc.