The point is that eventually (maybe 10 years from now or maybe 2) this is going to become too powerful to be dealt with by any competitor. It's like going to war with someone where you can only see the small battlefield in front of you while they have a top down view of the whole battlefield. I hope this concept has dawned on Apple brass and they have a strategy in place to outflank Google. I can't say that it seems likely though.
Yup, for the next 10 years, Apple will release nothing and buy no one. Apple knows what it's doing.
A little disappointed, home automation has the potential to be huge I think. Apple should really have purchased Nest when they had the chance.
Why can't Apple make something as good as Nest? Do they have to buy a stand alone product to get into home automation? Surely Apple designers could easily design a sleek looking thermostat. Unless Nest has some killer patents I'm not sure why Apple would want them. Apple's weakness certainly isn't hardware design.
Kudos for your well thought-out and detailed post addressing many questions. Seriously.
But the essence of your response to me regarding Google's strategy is that it is swamping us (or at least, trying to, since it has not gotten anywhere yet) with a 'cheap bastards' approach (I am quoting you).
That may very well be the case, although I'll believe it when something actually sticks. But we know that'll never be Apple's strategy. And it is unclear how that will make money for Google.
I agree - and my post is more along the "trying to" line. Google's not going to own all of these emerging industries (one can hope at least - "wouldn't be prudent" - to quote Dubya's Dad).
Nor have I looked into GOOG's financials to see if blowing all the resources they're spreading around into so many initiatives makes business sense at the present, and I absolutely have no insight into predicting the growth and adoption rates into any of 'em beyond the current Android/Chrome/Play Store/Search/digital ecosystem areas really.
So my point is mainly that anyone who thinks they're just taking wild stabs in the dark doesn't recognize that they have cohesive and certainly expansive ideas (with effort behind them) about where they're heading.
Sometimes in direct competition with Apple, MS, Amazon, facebook, Yahoo, etc. in some of the bread and butter areas of all of 'em - and also in other areas that are still nascent and out of the wheelhouses of those companies.
And that they're more dynamic and - if one can step out of whatever rooting interest one may have - at this juncture when previous paradigms and pecking orders are in rapid flux - just plain more interesting to watch than at least all but one of the above as the future of tech barrels toward us.
And that no one can say they're not into "the vision thing."
This was Apple's first attempt at cell phones. Other manus were integrating music in to their own cell phones. If Apple failed, the others would slowly eat away at the iPod. If Apple failed, there would be no iPad. There would be no Apple.
Again, other manufacturers were doing a piss poor job of integrating a music player. The iPod at that point was already 6-7 years old? Millions had already put their entire music library into iTunes. Getting the iPod part right was paramount in the success of the iPhone and the phone part second.
Nest owes a lot of it's attention to the fact that Fadell and Rogers were ex Apple Execs. If they don't have that as a marketing piece the road they travel becomes much harder.
Nests technology is great but don't fool yourself into thinking that there isn't competition.
I installed a Nest thermostat in my condo. Liked it so much that I gifted my brother one for his condo and installed another one at my parents.
They are awesome devices.
And this was one company whose IPO I was eagerly waiting for. Too bad. Kudos on Google for seeing their potential. And the integration they could pull off will be phenomenal. I can imagine Google Now using the Nest's data and my location data to determine when it should turn on the heat in the winter. Or "vacation mode" when it knows I'm out of the country (kinda like a better auto-Away).
I own a Nest thermostat and I love the product. I am really disappointed to hear that Google bought them. I feel like they were really disrupting the home automation space and were poised to be a great stand alone, entrepreneurial company. Now, you can bet that the Nest's focus will change and their products will start to suck. I hope Google and Nest prove me wrong.
As far as other comments go - it would not have made sense for Apple to buy Nest, and I am not at all sure why Apple would want to buy Tesla. That is just insane.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SpamSandwich
If Google can continue to fund money losers (as a type of very long term R&D) it will be bad for their immediate and near term, but possibly be of benefit in the long run. Considering none of these companies represent their core competency, I think they are just spending wildly and foolishly.
I remember when people said the same thing about Google buying YouTube and when Google launched Maps and GMail.
Good on Google that they take risks when so many companies are far more risk-averse.
And luckily for Nest, they now have an owner with deep pockets who is willing to turbocharge their progress. Far from being disappointed, I'm excited to see what Nest will develop, now that they have Google's pockets.
My only disappointment is that they never IPO'd so that I could get a piece.
Guys & Girls, Apple did / does NOT need this crap.
Goofle with their dumb and talentless workers need the brains behind the design.
Microsoft is the one who should've bought them but not at that price or else the whole Internet would laugh! But they don't laugh at Goofle! Why? Because Goofle is well ... Goofle!
Goofle paid 3.2 billion for the NAME of the MAN behind so-called VISION who everyone calls him the Father of iPod (or something like that) NOT for the product they selling.
Also, Nest is a luxury crap which is NOT in a typical Gooflers' DNA to buy. YES, if ever Goofle gives it out for FREE, then their fans would love to have one. Until then, there goes another 3.2 billions for something that Goofle has NO clue if they can use it to make some $$ if ever.
Nest owes a lot of it's attention to the fact that Fadell and Rogers were ex Apple Execs. If they don't have that as a marketing piece the road they travel becomes much harder.
Nests technology is great but don't fool yourself into thinking that there isn't competition.
Apple doesn't need to pay a billion dollars for product they don't need. Apple's likely not going to play the hardware
game. If I'm a betting man I'd say that they will align with either Zigbee or Z Wave or both. They will probably abstract
them enough to add some proprietary features for OS X/iOS in an Apple Framework for devs to write against that ads a
bit more Wow Factor than what Zigbee or Z Wave provides.
If Apple were to acquire a company it'd probably be Polish based Fibaro. Their product design is more Apple than anyone.
I have to agree with you, the market place is already crowded and NEST solution is no better than what others are offering they just made the device on the wall like like the old style round thermostat that have been around a long time. This space is way too complicated and required someone who understand what they are doing to automate a home. I have been doing this for 20 yrs and no two homes are exactly alike and you have to deal with home specific issue to make these things all play together.
I have to agree with you, the market place is already crowded and NEST solution is no better than what others are offering they just made the device on the wall like like the old style round thermostat that have been around a long time. This space is way too complicated and required someone who understand what they are doing to automate a home. I have been doing this for 20 yrs and no two homes are exactly alike and you have to deal with home specific issue to make these things all play together.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Arlor
That seems to be the motivation for the steady drumbeat of "Buy Nest! Buy Tesla!"
Apple sensibly prefers to buy undervalued and/or mission-critical properties. Apple doesn't need to be in the car or home businesses. Apple's always prevailed through relentless focus and polish. Leave it to Google and others to play with thermostats and self-driving cars. They're cool, they get good press, but they're not markets that are ripe for the kind of shine Apple likes to put on its products.
The most difficult part of home automation is a lack of state mandated enforcement of the International, never mind State subset of, Construction standards.
Idaho is a complete joke run by non-bonded and licensed hacks doing home construction, never mind commercial.
Washington State is all licensed and bonded, but having worked closely with some contractors [on the job] they all cut corners, over charge the consumer which resulted in myself as a mechanical engineer helping family out into a heated series of arguments.
The inspectors are morons who easily get bribed.
With rare exception, even all new home construction does not meet the R factor insulation requirements, the proper treated timber, the minimum foundation requirements in WA and northern climates, to the correct span between 2 x 6, etc.
Automating poorly constructed homes is a nightmare.
The commercial industry is the only space worth investigating and Honeywell is king in the US.
The guy is credited [most jointly with others] 73 in the US.
In fact, every single patent he's got his name on it along with actual engineers, so no he hasn't authored more than 300, never mind 73, but he has gone on the ride and helped shape 73 in the US, all but 14 of those patents working at Apple where 3-12 other engineers names are stamped on every one.
Ironically, the vast majority of his patents are on plugin adaptor interfacing. Big fucking deal.
Nest owes a lot of it's attention to the fact that Fadell and Rogers were ex Apple Execs. If they don't have that as a marketing piece the road they travel becomes much harder.
Nests technology is great but don't fool yourself into thinking that there isn't competition.
Apple doesn't need to pay a billion dollars for product they don't need. Apple's likely not going to play the hardware
game. If I'm a betting man I'd say that they will align with either Zigbee or Z Wave or both. They will probably abstract
them enough to add some proprietary features for OS X/iOS in an Apple Framework for devs to write against that ads a
bit more Wow Factor than what Zigbee or Z Wave provides.
If Apple were to acquire a company it'd probably be Polish based Fibaro. Their product design is more Apple than anyone.
I have to agree with you, the market place is already crowded and NEST solution is no better than what others are offering they just made the device on the wall like like the old style round thermostat that have been around a long time. This space is way too complicated and required someone who understand what they are doing to automate a home. I have been doing this for 20 yrs and no two homes are exactly alike and you have to deal with home specific issue to make these things all play together.
To really do an efficient/energy-saving job of HVAC, don't you need to manipulate the plenums in the ductwork? For example, close the ducts to the upstairs bedrooms (except the baby's room) during the day so that you are not cooling or heating unused space... Then, there's ceiling fans, attic exhaust fans, swamp coolers and misters in desert climates, solar heating, circulating hot water...
All this needs to be coordinated with the utility to use power in cheap off-peak hours. Supermarkets have been doing this using power-shedders for years -- in the 1980s our Silicon Valley computer store had several customers using Apple ][ computers to offer a power shedding solution for supermarkets, labs, etc.
The most difficult part of home automation is a lack of state mandated enforcement of the International, never mind State subset of, Construction standards.
Idaho is a complete joke run by non-bonded and licensed hacks doing home construction, never mind commercial.
Washington State is all licensed and bonded, but having worked closely with some contractors [on the job] they all cut corners, over charge the consumer which resulted in myself as a mechanical engineer helping family out into a heated series of arguments.
The inspectors are morons who easily get bribed.
With rare exception, even all new home construction does not meet the R factor insulation requirements, the proper treated timber, the minimum foundation requirements in WA and northern climates, to the correct span between 2 x 6, etc.
Automating poorly constructed homes is a nightmare.
The commercial industry is the only space worth investigating and Honeywell is king in the US.
I can attest to this. Every time I have to go into some previously unexplored area of my home built in 2006, I seem to find more stuff the "inspector" missed. Insulation on the very outside sections of our master bedroom had only a light dusting of blown-in insulation, they shoved fiberglass insulation at the lowest points of the roof between the trusses that blocked the air flow from the soffits intakes to the peak vents, and blown-in insulation covering the soffit intakes. This was only discovered two weekends ago when I was up there moving blown in insulation to install batts. I can't tell you how many of the structured wiring pulls they installed didn't work due to either (1) bad end point termination or (2) most likely being damaged by drywall screws, nails or other fasteners. I found a number when I first moved in and simply tested them with my cable tester. Why couldn't they do this? Right, they could, but they didn't give enough of a crap. We've been lucky in that we haven't seemed to have had any major things that I've found ... yet.
I wish I'd been able to buy during the construction process so I could have installed low voltage conduit, security wiring and other infrastructure myself, but that wasn't in the cards at the time so I am now trying to retrofit which is a giant pain. I hate whomever came up with the idea of blown-in insulation, had to be an installer as after that initial step, it's a nightmare.
What will happen to the people who currently work for Nest? These types of takeovers often result in a lot of people either being laid off due to duplication of departments (they don't need 2 HR depts, 2 Payroll, etc) or the top techie people not wanting to work in a big company like Google and hence leave to start over somewhere else. People who work in the small companies where they have their own work ethics hate moving to a big company with way different work rules, pay scales, vacation benefits, and all the other perks. Will Nest lose 10%? 20%?
Now I'm just waiting for a new version of Nest thermostat that shows Google ads. Or perhaps sends your temperature patterns to Google who can then send you ads based on how high or low you keep your temperatures. If too low, perhaps ads for down comforters?
Wonder if Apple will still be able to sell the thermostats?
To really do an efficient/energy-saving job of HVAC, don't you need to manipulate the plenums in the ductwork? For example, close the ducts to the upstairs bedrooms (except the baby's room) during the day so that you are not cooling or heating unused space... Then, there's ceiling fans, attic exhaust fans, swamp coolers and misters in desert climates, solar heating, circulating hot water...
All this needs to be coordinated with the utility to use power in cheap off-peak hours. Supermarkets have been doing this using power-shedders for years -- in the 1980s our Silicon Valley computer store had several customers using Apple ][ computers to offer a power shedding solution for supermarkets, labs, etc.
If Nest cared about energy they wouldn't have made their second product an overdone Smoke Detector. They would have done this
Simply tossing in a smartphone enabled thermostat doesn't make your home smart. Ideally you'd want to control the entire flow of heat to rooms as you say Dick and have this automated.
Quote: And now I’ll never buy one (much less the three I’d planned). Ever.
I am sure that if Nest had known that a guy on the internet had said he was going to buy up to three devices, they would never had sold. I can see The Onion headlines now ...
Comments
Yup, for the next 10 years, Apple will release nothing and buy no one. Apple knows what it's doing.
Kudos for your well thought-out and detailed post addressing many questions. Seriously.
But the essence of your response to me regarding Google's strategy is that it is swamping us (or at least, trying to, since it has not gotten anywhere yet) with a 'cheap bastards' approach (I am quoting you).
That may very well be the case, although I'll believe it when something actually sticks. But we know that'll never be Apple's strategy. And it is unclear how that will make money for Google.
I agree - and my post is more along the "trying to" line. Google's not going to own all of these emerging industries (one can hope at least - "wouldn't be prudent" - to quote Dubya's Dad).
Nor have I looked into GOOG's financials to see if blowing all the resources they're spreading around into so many initiatives makes business sense at the present, and I absolutely have no insight into predicting the growth and adoption rates into any of 'em beyond the current Android/Chrome/Play Store/Search/digital ecosystem areas really.
So my point is mainly that anyone who thinks they're just taking wild stabs in the dark doesn't recognize that they have cohesive and certainly expansive ideas (with effort behind them) about where they're heading.
Sometimes in direct competition with Apple, MS, Amazon, facebook, Yahoo, etc. in some of the bread and butter areas of all of 'em - and also in other areas that are still nascent and out of the wheelhouses of those companies.
And that they're more dynamic and - if one can step out of whatever rooting interest one may have - at this juncture when previous paradigms and pecking orders are in rapid flux - just plain more interesting to watch than at least all but one of the above as the future of tech barrels toward us.
And that no one can say they're not into "the vision thing."
Again, other manufacturers were doing a piss poor job of integrating a music player. The iPod at that point was already 6-7 years old? Millions had already put their entire music library into iTunes. Getting the iPod part right was paramount in the success of the iPhone and the phone part second.
Philips makes many medical electronics, and they also make cordless phones.
Philips is a huge company, but what did the Mobile electronics group do, especially in the pre-iPod days?
http://www.bould.com/jsindex.php
Guess Google didn't buy Nest for Fadell's design saavy.
Nest owes a lot of it's attention to the fact that Fadell and Rogers were ex Apple Execs. If they don't have that as a marketing piece the road they travel becomes much harder.
Nests technology is great but don't fool yourself into thinking that there isn't competition.
Netatmo Therm - Neatly ties in to their weather station
Centralite Pearl Therm - Will be using Zigbee Home Automation 1.2
Tado Therm - UK's best shot at a Nest competitor
Honeywell Prestige Therm - Can't count these guys out
Allure Energy Eversense Therm - supports iBeacon/NFC modules for the room.
Apple doesn't need to pay a billion dollars for product they don't need. Apple's likely not going to play the hardware
game. If I'm a betting man I'd say that they will align with either Zigbee or Z Wave or both. They will probably abstract
them enough to add some proprietary features for OS X/iOS in an Apple Framework for devs to write against that ads a
bit more Wow Factor than what Zigbee or Z Wave provides.
If Apple were to acquire a company it'd probably be Polish based Fibaro. Their product design is more Apple than anyone.
I installed a Nest thermostat in my condo. Liked it so much that I gifted my brother one for his condo and installed another one at my parents.
They are awesome devices.
And this was one company whose IPO I was eagerly waiting for. Too bad. Kudos on Google for seeing their potential. And the integration they could pull off will be phenomenal. I can imagine Google Now using the Nest's data and my location data to determine when it should turn on the heat in the winter. Or "vacation mode" when it knows I'm out of the country (kinda like a better auto-Away).
I own a Nest thermostat and I love the product. I am really disappointed to hear that Google bought them. I feel like they were really disrupting the home automation space and were poised to be a great stand alone, entrepreneurial company. Now, you can bet that the Nest's focus will change and their products will start to suck. I hope Google and Nest prove me wrong.
As far as other comments go - it would not have made sense for Apple to buy Nest, and I am not at all sure why Apple would want to buy Tesla. That is just insane.
If Google can continue to fund money losers (as a type of very long term R&D) it will be bad for their immediate and near term, but possibly be of benefit in the long run. Considering none of these companies represent their core competency, I think they are just spending wildly and foolishly.
I remember when people said the same thing about Google buying YouTube and when Google launched Maps and GMail.
Good on Google that they take risks when so many companies are far more risk-averse.
And luckily for Nest, they now have an owner with deep pockets who is willing to turbocharge their progress. Far from being disappointed, I'm excited to see what Nest will develop, now that they have Google's pockets.
My only disappointment is that they never IPO'd so that I could get a piece.
Are you implying that "Goofle" is "offal"?
Nest owes a lot of it's attention to the fact that Fadell and Rogers were ex Apple Execs. If they don't have that as a marketing piece the road they travel becomes much harder.
Nests technology is great but don't fool yourself into thinking that there isn't competition.
Netatmo Therm - Neatly ties in to their weather station
Centralite Pearl Therm - Will be using Zigbee Home Automation 1.2
Tado Therm - UK's best shot at a Nest competitor
Honeywell Prestige Therm - Can't count these guys out
Allure Energy Eversense Therm - supports iBeacon/NFC modules for the room.
Apple doesn't need to pay a billion dollars for product they don't need. Apple's likely not going to play the hardware
game. If I'm a betting man I'd say that they will align with either Zigbee or Z Wave or both. They will probably abstract
them enough to add some proprietary features for OS X/iOS in an Apple Framework for devs to write against that ads a
bit more Wow Factor than what Zigbee or Z Wave provides.
If Apple were to acquire a company it'd probably be Polish based Fibaro. Their product design is more Apple than anyone.
I have to agree with you, the market place is already crowded and NEST solution is no better than what others are offering they just made the device on the wall like like the old style round thermostat that have been around a long time. This space is way too complicated and required someone who understand what they are doing to automate a home. I have been doing this for 20 yrs and no two homes are exactly alike and you have to deal with home specific issue to make these things all play together.
I have to agree with you, the market place is already crowded and NEST solution is no better than what others are offering they just made the device on the wall like like the old style round thermostat that have been around a long time. This space is way too complicated and required someone who understand what they are doing to automate a home. I have been doing this for 20 yrs and no two homes are exactly alike and you have to deal with home specific issue to make these things all play together.
That seems to be the motivation for the steady drumbeat of "Buy Nest! Buy Tesla!"
Apple sensibly prefers to buy undervalued and/or mission-critical properties. Apple doesn't need to be in the car or home businesses. Apple's always prevailed through relentless focus and polish. Leave it to Google and others to play with thermostats and self-driving cars. They're cool, they get good press, but they're not markets that are ripe for the kind of shine Apple likes to put on its products.
The most difficult part of home automation is a lack of state mandated enforcement of the International, never mind State subset of, Construction standards.
Idaho is a complete joke run by non-bonded and licensed hacks doing home construction, never mind commercial.
Washington State is all licensed and bonded, but having worked closely with some contractors [on the job] they all cut corners, over charge the consumer which resulted in myself as a mechanical engineer helping family out into a heated series of arguments.
The inspectors are morons who easily get bribed.
With rare exception, even all new home construction does not meet the R factor insulation requirements, the proper treated timber, the minimum foundation requirements in WA and northern climates, to the correct span between 2 x 6, etc.
Automating poorly constructed homes is a nightmare.
The commercial industry is the only space worth investigating and Honeywell is king in the US.
FWIW: Fadell does not have more than 300 patents authored:
http://patft.uspto.gov/netacgi/nph-Parser?Sect1=PTO2&Sect2=HITOFF&p=1&u=/netahtml/PTO/search-bool.html&r=0&f=S&l=50&TERM1=Fadell&FIELD1=INNM&co1=AND&TERM2=&FIELD2=&d=PTXT
The guy is credited [most jointly with others] 73 in the US.
In fact, every single patent he's got his name on it along with actual engineers, so no he hasn't authored more than 300, never mind 73, but he has gone on the ride and helped shape 73 in the US, all but 14 of those patents working at Apple where 3-12 other engineers names are stamped on every one.
Ironically, the vast majority of his patents are on plugin adaptor interfacing. Big fucking deal.
To really do an efficient/energy-saving job of HVAC, don't you need to manipulate the plenums in the ductwork? For example, close the ducts to the upstairs bedrooms (except the baby's room) during the day so that you are not cooling or heating unused space... Then, there's ceiling fans, attic exhaust fans, swamp coolers and misters in desert climates, solar heating, circulating hot water...
All this needs to be coordinated with the utility to use power in cheap off-peak hours. Supermarkets have been doing this using power-shedders for years -- in the 1980s our Silicon Valley computer store had several customers using Apple ][ computers to offer a power shedding solution for supermarkets, labs, etc.
http://www.slate.com/articles/technology/technology/2012/02/honeywell_sues_nest_the_race_to_build_a_better_thermostat_.html
http://techcrunch.com/2013/09/11/nest-buys-protection-licenses-patents-from-intellectual-ventures-to-fight-honeywell-others/
The most difficult part of home automation is a lack of state mandated enforcement of the International, never mind State subset of, Construction standards.
Idaho is a complete joke run by non-bonded and licensed hacks doing home construction, never mind commercial.
Washington State is all licensed and bonded, but having worked closely with some contractors [on the job] they all cut corners, over charge the consumer which resulted in myself as a mechanical engineer helping family out into a heated series of arguments.
The inspectors are morons who easily get bribed.
With rare exception, even all new home construction does not meet the R factor insulation requirements, the proper treated timber, the minimum foundation requirements in WA and northern climates, to the correct span between 2 x 6, etc.
Automating poorly constructed homes is a nightmare.
The commercial industry is the only space worth investigating and Honeywell is king in the US.
I can attest to this. Every time I have to go into some previously unexplored area of my home built in 2006, I seem to find more stuff the "inspector" missed. Insulation on the very outside sections of our master bedroom had only a light dusting of blown-in insulation, they shoved fiberglass insulation at the lowest points of the roof between the trusses that blocked the air flow from the soffits intakes to the peak vents, and blown-in insulation covering the soffit intakes. This was only discovered two weekends ago when I was up there moving blown in insulation to install batts. I can't tell you how many of the structured wiring pulls they installed didn't work due to either (1) bad end point termination or (2) most likely being damaged by drywall screws, nails or other fasteners. I found a number when I first moved in and simply tested them with my cable tester. Why couldn't they do this? Right, they could, but they didn't give enough of a crap. We've been lucky in that we haven't seemed to have had any major things that I've found ... yet.
I wish I'd been able to buy during the construction process so I could have installed low voltage conduit, security wiring and other infrastructure myself, but that wasn't in the cards at the time so I am now trying to retrofit which is a giant pain. I hate whomever came up with the idea of blown-in insulation, had to be an installer as after that initial step, it's a nightmare.
Now I'm just waiting for a new version of Nest thermostat that shows Google ads. Or perhaps sends your temperature patterns to Google who can then send you ads based on how high or low you keep your temperatures. If too low, perhaps ads for down comforters?
Wonder if Apple will still be able to sell the thermostats?
To really do an efficient/energy-saving job of HVAC, don't you need to manipulate the plenums in the ductwork? For example, close the ducts to the upstairs bedrooms (except the baby's room) during the day so that you are not cooling or heating unused space... Then, there's ceiling fans, attic exhaust fans, swamp coolers and misters in desert climates, solar heating, circulating hot water...
All this needs to be coordinated with the utility to use power in cheap off-peak hours. Supermarkets have been doing this using power-shedders for years -- in the 1980s our Silicon Valley computer store had several customers using Apple ][ computers to offer a power shedding solution for supermarkets, labs, etc.
If Nest cared about energy they wouldn't have made their second product an overdone Smoke Detector. They would have done this
http://econetcontrols.com/EV100.php
Simply tossing in a smartphone enabled thermostat doesn't make your home smart. Ideally you'd want to control the entire flow of heat to rooms as you say Dick and have this automated.
Quote: And now I’ll never buy one (much less the three I’d planned). Ever.
I am sure that if Nest had known that a guy on the internet had said he was going to buy up to three devices, they would never had sold. I can see The Onion headlines now ...