I am sure it will go fluctuate over the next few days. I am in no hurry.
If Apple was a money loosing or speculative stock it would be one thing, but they are HUGELY PROFITABLE and nothing substantial has changed. IOS is super sticky. Once you touch it most don't leave.
BTW Apple old days of double digit growth are from a different CEO that was a lot more aggressive than the current one. I am sure TC was very good at operations during that time, but he is playing it "safe" now, like the good operation guy he is.
Just wait to see what happens when TC introduces a new product line into the market. Wall Street analysts are going to have a microscope shoved so far up his butt he'll find it hard to breath.
... but I do hope that any new products are well received. I've always liked Apple products and I want to see Apple do well far into the future.
You also need into account what the stock did in the months prior to those earnings. It rised on expectations of better numbers than that so its going down now. Its still up from its $400 lows.
Mhm.... and where did those "expectations of better numbers" come from? The false narratives created by market manipulators (aka "analysts") perhaps? Apple would have had to beat their guidance even further to beat those expectations. They nailed or exceeded their own guidance. Why does ANYTHING ELSE matter at this point?
Gross margin was 38.6 a year ago. It was 37.9% today, but the sales and revenue were substantially higher, and more than made up for the slight decline in margin (and, last I checked, a .7% difference in overall margins on $10's of billions in total revenues is considered a paltry adjustment).
There is no rational reason for the precipitous sell-off here. None. It's greed, followed by panic, followed by further downward driven 'fever' perpetuated by the very people wanting to snap up more shares at $50 a share less...
Mark my words. It will be back to $550 or higher within days, if not by the end of trading tomorrow...
For one reason or another, Apple is always conservative on providing guidance. The market is expecting Apple to exceed the guidance by a good amount and it reflected in the price. Once that expectation was not met, the stock price tanks. This game has been played like this for so many quarters. Nothing new.
Except Apple changed how they provide guidance. They used to sandbag and provide guidance that they could easily beat. Now they provide guidance that is more realistic. So Wall Street shouldn't expect them to blow past guidance.
It’s just silly to read about the constant claims of ‘stock manipulation’ in these forums.
Give up, guys. Stock prices are all about expectations. If you don’t meet them, your stock will, in all likelihood, fall. You can’t legislate or wish away how people form their expectations for the future. Cook and Oppenheimer have a job to manage expectations, if they think it’s too optimistic or pessimistic. For better or worse – typically for worse – they never do.
If it’s not something you like, you should stay out of the stock market. It’s really as simple as that.
well, stock manipulation is pretty much defined by "manipulating expectation", so.... you're right about that.
My guess is tomorrow afternoon the stock won't be down as much as it is now. Right now is an overreaction to iPhone numbers IMO.
None of these large sells are long-term investment portfolios. They are straight up hedging and/or shorting to manipulate a positional advantage. To read others crying foul that WS is some benevolent financial apparatus is effing retarded.
Mhm.... and where did those "expectations of better numbers" come from? The false narratives created by market manipulators (aka "analysts") perhaps? Apple would have had to beat their guidance even further to beat those expectations. They nailed or exceeded their own guidance. Why does ANYTHING ELSE matter at this point?
Gross margin was 38.6 a year ago. It was 37.9% today, but the sales and revenue were substantially higher, and more than made up for the slight decline in margin (and, last I checked, a .7% difference in overall margins on $10's of billions in total revenues is considered a paltry adjustment).
There is no rational reason for the precipitous sell-off here. None. It's greed, followed by panic, followed by further downward driven 'fever' perpetuated by the very people wanting to snap up more shares at $50 a share less...
Mark my words. It will be back to $550 or higher within days, if not by the end of trading tomorrow...
would be nice if it rebounded that quick, but guidance was not very good, so why would it rebound? You can't have it both ways, you can't want to dismiss analyst and used Apple guidance and want a rebound at the same time. If Apple guidance is golden, then the stock is dead money for the next 3 months... this is why the market doesn't work like you want it to...
For one reason or another, Apple is always conservative on providing guidance. The market is expecting Apple to exceed the guidance by a good amount and it reflected in the price. Once that expectation was not met, the stock price tanks. This game has been played like this for so many quarters. Nothing new.
That's not how it is anymore. No-one should be expecting Apple to exceed their guidance by any significant margin now.
Apple always was seemingly conservative, but they've changed how they estimate it. Specifically with the intent of falling within the range of guidance. e.g. $55 ~ 58 Bn, and they came in at $57.6... just slightly below the high end of the estimate.
There's really no sane rationale for the market response. But then, who ever said the market was sane?
I dont think iPhone 5c is bad phone in fact i kinda start to like it but the iPhone 5 was better specially the black one, most smart people (inclunding me) just waited for Apple to launch 5s so they can get the cheaper iPhone 5
How do you define bad? 51 million iPhones is second only Samsung as the most phones sold in a quarter. And Samsung sells a lot more phone models than Apple does.
I don't remember ever seeing Samsung report how many mobile phones they sold. Shipped? Yes. Sold? No.
If you have any references to such, please post.
Until then, I would be most interested in, 'How many iPhones Apple shipped'.
That's not how it is anymore. No-one should be expecting Apple to exceed their guidance by any significant margin now.
Apple always was seemingly conservative, but they've changed how they estimate it. Specifically with the intent of falling within the range of guidance. e.g. $55 ~ 58 Bn, and they came in at $57.6... just slightly below the high end of the estimate.
There's really no sane rationale for the market response. But then, who ever said the market was sane?
no there is no rational for such a decline after market. I could understand the stock maybe being flat to slightly down, but down 8%? That's just ridiculous. There was nothing in these numbers or future guidance that warrant an 8% drop.
.7% yoy ... which is plenty when you also consider that margins dropped last year as well.
The question becomes... "when will margins hold steady or rise?".
As I said... to Wall Street, Apple is all about margins.
OK, "to wall street" maybe that's true to a degree.
But honestly, on sales in the $10s of billions, a .7% YoY margin swing is not remotely considered a price mover. Plenty of other concepts are in play here. Especially when they improved by a similar amount (.9%) over the previous quarter (which already answers your question, "when will margins hold steady or rise?" They just rose .9% QoQ). I could check to see if that is a trend over multiple quarters, but those micro-movements are probably not as important as you're making them out to be.
Down .7% YoY, up .9% QoQ (they came in at a 37% margin the previous quarter).... that says, "they are sustaining margins" to me (yeah, I still need my glasses, sadly). Small shifts are not the issue at all. The swing from 40% to 37% (Q4 '12 ~ Q4 '13) was probably more meaningful, but easily explained, as sustaining those kinds of margins (40% and above) is frankly unrealistic and dangerous over a longer term. It prevents managed shifts in pricing and supply to remain competitive. Especially in a market where you are pretty much the only company earning a significant slice of the overall pie. And, most of that movement happened in one quarter the year before, not over time as a rapidly declining trend. No, Apple still enjoys record quarters in all metrics pretty much across the board...
So, regardless of what "wall street" obsesses on in the immediate, I disagree that "it's all about margins", just like I disagree that "it's all about growth potential"... those alone aren't what give the stock its fundamental value.
Looking at the bigger picture, Apple stock should be doing fine, so I suspect it will be back up in pretty short order here. Watch the next few hours and days. I may be golden or I may eat crow. We'll see!
BTW Apple old days of double digit growth are from a different CEO that was a lot more aggressive than the current one. I am sure TC was very good at operations during that time, but he is playing it "safe" now, like the good operation guy he is.
Well, that would all be a great narrative if it didn't fly directly in the face of facts and recent history.
Under Tim Cook, Apple has enjoyed the most significant growth in its entire history. Yes. That's a fact (never mind the price of the stock on any given day). It was under Tim Cook's leadership that the company rocketed into its "most valuable company" status, which it also enjoys today. (Or did, I'm not sure if the $50 drop after hours changed that or not).
I don't know where you get these wild speculations about TC "playing it safe" etc. The Mac Pro release is HARDLY a 'safe play', ya think?
Herby, your posts are becoming more and more filled with supposition and invention, and starting to appear a lot more troll-like to me. What's up with that?
would be nice if it rebounded that quick, but guidance was not very good, so why would it rebound? You can't have it both ways, you can't want to dismiss analyst and used Apple guidance and want a rebound at the same time. If Apple guidance is golden, then the stock is dead money for the next 3 months... this is why the market doesn't work like you want it to...
In what way was the guidance "not very good"? You keep saying that, but where's the beef!?
well, stock manipulation is pretty much defined by "manipulating expectation", so.... you're right about that.
...you nailed it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by anantksundaram
It’s just silly to read about the constant claims of ‘stock manipulation’ in these forums.
Give up, guys. Stock prices are all about expectations. If you don’t meet them, your stock will, in all likelihood, fall. You can’t legislate or wish away how people form their expectations for the future. Cook and Oppenheimer have a job to manage expectations, if they think it’s too optimistic or pessimistic. For better or worse – typically for worse – they never do.
If it’s not something you like, you should stay out of the stock market. It’s really as simple as that.
...it's still manipulation.
And most here are not saying it's some giant conspiracy...it's the fact that big money players CAN manipulate and when the majority position sways to one side, it causes overly-dramatic price swings...especially with Apple. Why? Because you just said it, Cook and Oppenheimer don't (never) manage public expectations (and neither did Steve)....thereby leaving it to media and big players to MAKE UP reasons for the price swings.
The thing most concerning is the fairly low guidance for 2Q. Maybe Tim is expecting to disrupt this quarter thru new product announcements (which I doubt but hope)? That could explain the low guidance. Or just that it'll be slow/boring leading up to new product announcements in 3Q (more probable)?
No but any MBA with 12 years' experience at IBM directing supply chain could do as good a job.
I used to work at IBM, I don't share your sentiments. IBM is a huge filter where good and bad people join, and then the good people leave </repeat>... Anyone there 12 years is a lost cause for the most part.
Comments
I am sure it will go fluctuate over the next few days. I am in no hurry.
If Apple was a money loosing or speculative stock it would be one thing, but they are HUGELY PROFITABLE and nothing substantial has changed. IOS is super sticky. Once you touch it most don't leave.
MSFT is a better bet than aapl
Last year +36% v +8%
BTW Apple old days of double digit growth are from a different CEO that was a lot more aggressive than the current one. I am sure TC was very good at operations during that time, but he is playing it "safe" now, like the good operation guy he is.
Just wait to see what happens when TC introduces a new product line into the market. Wall Street analysts are going to have a microscope shoved so far up his butt he'll find it hard to breath.
... but I do hope that any new products are well received. I've always liked Apple products and I want to see Apple do well far into the future.
You also need into account what the stock did in the months prior to those earnings. It rised on expectations of better numbers than that so its going down now. Its still up from its $400 lows.
Mhm.... and where did those "expectations of better numbers" come from? The false narratives created by market manipulators (aka "analysts") perhaps? Apple would have had to beat their guidance even further to beat those expectations. They nailed or exceeded their own guidance. Why does ANYTHING ELSE matter at this point?
Gross margin was 38.6 a year ago. It was 37.9% today, but the sales and revenue were substantially higher, and more than made up for the slight decline in margin (and, last I checked, a .7% difference in overall margins on $10's of billions in total revenues is considered a paltry adjustment).
There is no rational reason for the precipitous sell-off here. None. It's greed, followed by panic, followed by further downward driven 'fever' perpetuated by the very people wanting to snap up more shares at $50 a share less...
Mark my words. It will be back to $550 or higher within days, if not by the end of trading tomorrow...
It’s just silly to read about the constant claims of ‘stock manipulation’ in these forums.
Give up, guys. Stock prices are all about expectations. If you don’t meet them, your stock will, in all likelihood, fall. You can’t legislate or wish away how people form their expectations for the future. Cook and Oppenheimer have a job to manage expectations, if they think it’s too optimistic or pessimistic. For better or worse – typically for worse – they never do.
If it’s not something you like, you should stay out of the stock market. It’s really as simple as that.
well, stock manipulation is pretty much defined by "manipulating expectation", so.... you're right about that.
My guess is tomorrow afternoon the stock won't be down as much as it is now. Right now is an overreaction to iPhone numbers IMO.
None of these large sells are long-term investment portfolios. They are straight up hedging and/or shorting to manipulate a positional advantage. To read others crying foul that WS is some benevolent financial apparatus is effing retarded.
So how would you manage supply chain for oneoff the most valuable companies in the world? Oh what's that? No one hired you?
No but any MBA with 12 years' experience at IBM directing supply chain could do as good a job.
Mhm.... and where did those "expectations of better numbers" come from? The false narratives created by market manipulators (aka "analysts") perhaps? Apple would have had to beat their guidance even further to beat those expectations. They nailed or exceeded their own guidance. Why does ANYTHING ELSE matter at this point?
Gross margin was 38.6 a year ago. It was 37.9% today, but the sales and revenue were substantially higher, and more than made up for the slight decline in margin (and, last I checked, a .7% difference in overall margins on $10's of billions in total revenues is considered a paltry adjustment).
There is no rational reason for the precipitous sell-off here. None. It's greed, followed by panic, followed by further downward driven 'fever' perpetuated by the very people wanting to snap up more shares at $50 a share less...
Mark my words. It will be back to $550 or higher within days, if not by the end of trading tomorrow...
would be nice if it rebounded that quick, but guidance was not very good, so why would it rebound? You can't have it both ways, you can't want to dismiss analyst and used Apple guidance and want a rebound at the same time. If Apple guidance is golden, then the stock is dead money for the next 3 months... this is why the market doesn't work like you want it to...
For one reason or another, Apple is always conservative on providing guidance. The market is expecting Apple to exceed the guidance by a good amount and it reflected in the price. Once that expectation was not met, the stock price tanks. This game has been played like this for so many quarters. Nothing new.
That's not how it is anymore. No-one should be expecting Apple to exceed their guidance by any significant margin now.
Apple always was seemingly conservative, but they've changed how they estimate it. Specifically with the intent of falling within the range of guidance. e.g. $55 ~ 58 Bn, and they came in at $57.6... just slightly below the high end of the estimate.
There's really no sane rationale for the market response. But then, who ever said the market was sane?
Look at all that proof of anything.
I dont think iPhone 5c is bad phone in fact i kinda start to like it but the iPhone 5 was better specially the black one, most smart people (inclunding me) just waited for Apple to launch 5s so they can get the cheaper iPhone 5
MSFT is a better bet than aapl
Last year +36% v +8%
/Sarcasm on
Sure. With the success of Windows 8 I am sure this year will be even better for MSFT.
/Sarcasm off
Hi Guys,
- 8%
Good night
/Sarcasm on
Sure. With the success of Windows 8 I am sure this year will be even better for MSFT.
/Sarcasm off
True. All VISTA users are finally outnumbered by OSX
How do you define bad? 51 million iPhones is second only Samsung as the most phones sold in a quarter. And Samsung sells a lot more phone models than Apple does.
I don't remember ever seeing Samsung report how many mobile phones they sold. Shipped? Yes. Sold? No.
If you have any references to such, please post.
Until then, I would be most interested in, 'How many iPhones Apple shipped'.
.7% yoy ... which is plenty when you also consider that margins dropped last year as well.
The question becomes... "when will margins hold steady or rise?".
As I said... to Wall Street, Apple is all about margins.
OK, "to wall street" maybe that's true to a degree.
But honestly, on sales in the $10s of billions, a .7% YoY margin swing is not remotely considered a price mover. Plenty of other concepts are in play here. Especially when they improved by a similar amount (.9%) over the previous quarter (which already answers your question, "when will margins hold steady or rise?" They just rose .9% QoQ). I could check to see if that is a trend over multiple quarters, but those micro-movements are probably not as important as you're making them out to be.
Down .7% YoY, up .9% QoQ (they came in at a 37% margin the previous quarter).... that says, "they are sustaining margins" to me (yeah, I still need my glasses, sadly). Small shifts are not the issue at all. The swing from 40% to 37% (Q4 '12 ~ Q4 '13) was probably more meaningful, but easily explained, as sustaining those kinds of margins (40% and above) is frankly unrealistic and dangerous over a longer term. It prevents managed shifts in pricing and supply to remain competitive. Especially in a market where you are pretty much the only company earning a significant slice of the overall pie. And, most of that movement happened in one quarter the year before, not over time as a rapidly declining trend. No, Apple still enjoys record quarters in all metrics pretty much across the board...
So, regardless of what "wall street" obsesses on in the immediate, I disagree that "it's all about margins", just like I disagree that "it's all about growth potential"... those alone aren't what give the stock its fundamental value.
Looking at the bigger picture, Apple stock should be doing fine, so I suspect it will be back up in pretty short order here. Watch the next few hours and days. I may be golden or I may eat crow. We'll see!
BTW Apple old days of double digit growth are from a different CEO that was a lot more aggressive than the current one. I am sure TC was very good at operations during that time, but he is playing it "safe" now, like the good operation guy he is.
Well, that would all be a great narrative if it didn't fly directly in the face of facts and recent history.
Under Tim Cook, Apple has enjoyed the most significant growth in its entire history. Yes. That's a fact (never mind the price of the stock on any given day). It was under Tim Cook's leadership that the company rocketed into its "most valuable company" status, which it also enjoys today. (Or did, I'm not sure if the $50 drop after hours changed that or not).
I don't know where you get these wild speculations about TC "playing it safe" etc. The Mac Pro release is HARDLY a 'safe play', ya think?
Herby, your posts are becoming more and more filled with supposition and invention, and starting to appear a lot more troll-like to me. What's up with that?
would be nice if it rebounded that quick, but guidance was not very good, so why would it rebound? You can't have it both ways, you can't want to dismiss analyst and used Apple guidance and want a rebound at the same time. If Apple guidance is golden, then the stock is dead money for the next 3 months... this is why the market doesn't work like you want it to...
In what way was the guidance "not very good"? You keep saying that, but where's the beef!?
well, stock manipulation is pretty much defined by "manipulating expectation", so.... you're right about that.
...you nailed it.
It’s just silly to read about the constant claims of ‘stock manipulation’ in these forums.
Give up, guys. Stock prices are all about expectations. If you don’t meet them, your stock will, in all likelihood, fall. You can’t legislate or wish away how people form their expectations for the future. Cook and Oppenheimer have a job to manage expectations, if they think it’s too optimistic or pessimistic. For better or worse – typically for worse – they never do.
If it’s not something you like, you should stay out of the stock market. It’s really as simple as that.
...it's still manipulation.
And most here are not saying it's some giant conspiracy...it's the fact that big money players CAN manipulate and when the majority position sways to one side, it causes overly-dramatic price swings...especially with Apple. Why? Because you just said it, Cook and Oppenheimer don't (never) manage public expectations (and neither did Steve)....thereby leaving it to media and big players to MAKE UP reasons for the price swings.
The thing most concerning is the fairly low guidance for 2Q. Maybe Tim is expecting to disrupt this quarter thru new product announcements (which I doubt but hope)? That could explain the low guidance. Or just that it'll be slow/boring leading up to new product announcements in 3Q (more probable)?
No but any MBA with 12 years' experience at IBM directing supply chain could do as good a job.
I used to work at IBM, I don't share your sentiments. IBM is a huge filter where good and bad people join, and then the good people leave </repeat>... Anyone there 12 years is a lost cause for the most part.