Apple announces 7-for-1 stock split, buybacks bumped to $90 billion

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  • Reply 161 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    I know exactly how PE is calculated.

     

    My point is the stock price is not determined only on the next 12 months.  Many stocks are valued on what they are projected to do in 2 years or even 5-10 years.  Just look at Amazon. 

     

    With that in mind the PE which takes into account stock price is a forward looking metric.  One that goes far beyond 12 months since the stock price is estimated future cash flows 2, 3, or even 5 years down the line.


    You do after I told you, but your earlier method was COMPLETELY WRONG.  It's based on the stock price at a given moment and the last 12 months of earnings and the earnings get updated every quarter.  So STOP YOUR LYING.  You mentioned something to do with 2 or 3 years in the future. NO NO NO.  That's got NOTHING to do with the P/E calculation.

  • Reply 162 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    I know exactly how PE is calculated.

     

    My point is the stock price is not determined only on the next 12 months.  Many stocks are valued on what they are projected to do in 2 years or even 5-10 years.  Just look at Amazon. 

     

    With that in mind the PE which takes into account stock price is a forward looking metric.  One that goes far beyond 12 months since the stock price is estimated future cash flows 2, 3, or even 5 years down the line.


    It depends on the stock.  If you are looking at a HIGH GROWTH stock, then the P/E changes to reflect HIGH GROWTH.  But I still contend that Amazon is overvalued at P/E of 521.  I know the stock has done well, but their earnings aren't $hit.  $.56 a share earnings? In 2012, they lost money, in 2013 they made only about 274 Milion on $74 Billion in sales, which is crap earnings.  Why someone would invest in this stock is beyond me.  Amazon, from a stock perspective has been in hype growth, but in terms of actual earnings?  They SUCK!!!  I think Amazon shareholders are in for a rude awakening when they realize that stock has crap earnings, and will always have crap earnings and it's so overvalued, it's not even funny.  It actually might do what TIbco did back when they first started.   The stock went up really fast as people got hyped into it, and then BOOM!!! Nosedive and then back down to REALITY.   Facebook, IMO is also overvalued, but it's being treated like a high growth company.

     

    Akamai USED to be in HYPERGROWTH mode when it first hit Wall Street, then it got corrected drastically, and then it got more back into reality.

     

    That's the problem with some of these stocks.  

  • Reply 163 of 188
    originalg wrote: »
    Quote:

    It'll be divided as well (but that was entertaining thought though, haha)

    Ha ha! Yes, we'd all love $21 a share. One day in the future!
  • Reply 164 of 188
    sirlance99 wrote: »
    Um....NO.....they are not. All 3 companies will continue to exist and make money. 

    He means their hay day is over. Amazon is looking like reality is just starting to catch up to it, too.
  • Reply 165 of 188
    mvigod wrote: »
    Funny.  Here was my reply from Investor Relations apple in May 2012 when I pleaded with them to split the stock.  This is a copy and paste from my saved email as I knew he would do a 180.  



    When we announced the dividend and stock repurchase plan in March, our CEO, Tim Cook was asked about splitting the stock and here was his reply:
     
    This is something that we have looked at while we were looking at this cash question. And the current information we have would suggest that there's very little support that it helps the stock. However, we are in a unique position and at a unique point in time, and so this is something that we continue to look at. And if we reached a decision that we thought it was in the best interest of Apple and its shareholders, we would do it. But again, at this point that's not how we see it. 
     
    I don't have anything new to update you with today, but wanted you to have our latest public thoughts on the matter.
     
    Best regards,
    xxxx xxxxxxx
    Apple Investor Relations

    It took two years for your prediction to come true. Big deal.
  • Reply 166 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    Stop changing your story.

     

    You said they were growing 15-20% the last year.

     

    You were WRONG.  Just admit it

     

    You said HAS BEEN, not WILL BE.  Just stop it. Everyone makes mistakes.

     

    Its just mind blowing that a financial guru like you had no idea Apple was shrinking 12% in profits and you though they were growing profits 20%.  Amazing.


    I don't remember saying that, if I did, It was probably because I am running on no sleep for a few days (not drug or alcohol induced), but when i was discussing when you mentioned it being able to hit $700 I was referring to future earnings for the next year, not last year.

     

    Now, admit that your P/E Calculations is TOTAL BS. I should you how it is calculated and you won't admit it. Now ADMIT IT.  It's based on current stock price divided by the last 12 months earnings.   PERIOD.  Yet you brought up this 2 or 3 year BS.  It's not based on that.  The stock price is what people are willing to pay at that given period of time.  Some people buy a stock in hopes of making money within a minute, 24 hours, some people buy stocks based on making some profit within 1 month, 1 year, 2 years, or whatever they feel like basing it on. 

     

    Just to let you know, there are computers that trigger sales or purchases of stock based on whatever they program it to do and sometimes it's based on dropping in value dramatically or raising in value dramatically, or whatever perimeters they program it to do.  That's why there sometimes significant increases and drops based on some news.  I think they halted Google a while back when they screwed up reporting earnings about a year ago or so. 



    But you mentioned this 2 or 3 year future price BS on calculating the P/E ratio and I showed you you are wrong and you STILL won't admit it.

     

    Now, if you want to discuss something be very specific on the time frame you want to discuss because a lot of your BS i don't even bother reading unless you mention something that's worthwhile.

     

    Now go run along and take some courses in investments.  You conjure up BS. 

  • Reply 167 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    I have no idea if it will stay at $700.  Impossible to know.  If I knew that I would be a Billionaire many times over.

     

    My personal target is $650 and then I'll sell all my shares.


    By what time do you expect it to hit $650?

  • Reply 168 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    Demand will always be high at the time of product releases. Thats a fact. It doesn't matter if it's February, April, August, or October. Demand is high. Now they of course can start earlier but then it'll cause more issues for existing lines. I have confidence with Cook and his team.

    They need to ramp up production from 500,000 a day to probably at least 600,000 a day or maybe even higher for the iPhones.  I know it's a tough thing to do, but what makes me VERY nervous is when they push product announcement to the end of the year.  I just know that it causes more problems in the long run and having more frequent product releases seems to relieve many of these issues.   Getting one or two new products out is one thing, but getting 20 out at the same time is a nightmare.  I just think they would be better off with product releases through out the year rather than a product dump all at once during a 30 day period.   

  • Reply 169 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    I have no idea if it will stay at $700.  Impossible to know.  If I knew that I would be a Billionaire many times over.

     

    My personal target is $650 and then I'll sell all my shares.


    Well, if you have a personal target of $650, then it will most likely be sometime AFTER it does it's actual stock split in June and when the stock hits $645, or around $91 after stock split, call your broker and put in the sell order for sell whatever you want to sell at $650. Then hopefully it will hit that number within a short period of time and don't worry about anything else if you plan on selling all of your shares.  But I don't think it's going to hit that number any time soon. If they spit out the iPhone 6 in June and make some other REALLY great announcements that will give some guidance on really good profits/revenue then it might hit it for a couple of seconds in June.

  • Reply 170 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

     

    You are wrong.  You said Apple was growing earnings 15% the past year.  Earnings have been shrinking.  Just admit you are wrong.  Thats why the stock went up this time because EPS was up 15%.

     

    Here are the numbers for the last fiscal year vs previous year.

     

    Year ending Sept 2013 - Net Income $37,037,000,000

    Year ending Sept 2012 - Net Income $41,733,000,000

     

    Thats a DECLINE in net income of 12.6%.  Not an increase of 15%.

     

    Unlike you I will provide a link:

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/is?s=AAPL+Income+Statement&annual

     

    Now its your turn to show that Apple has been increasing earnings 15% the last year.


    And how was their growth in the years prior?  I'll admit to what they did LAST year, but what was their growth BEFORE last year growth rate?

  • Reply 171 of 188
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    drblank wrote: »
    They need to ramp up production from 500,000 a day to probably at least 600,000 a day or maybe even higher for the iPhones.  I know it's a tough thing to do, but what makes me VERY nervous is when they push product announcement to the end of the year.  I just know that it causes more problems in the long run and having more frequent product releases seems to relieve many of these issues.   Getting one or two new products out is one thing, but getting 20 out at the same time is a nightmare.  I just think they would be better off with product releases through out the year rather than a product dump all at once during a 30 day period.   

    To my knowledge, they aren't using the same machines/floor space/workers to churn these different devices out so why would multiple products cause an issue.

    You know it causes issues? It hasn't so far.
  • Reply 172 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    I'm not expected $650 till at least mid summer.

     

    I'm not locked into selling at $650.  If things are looking really good I might hold on to $700 in the Nov time frame.

     

    About my previous comments:

     

    I think I misunderstood your comments.  Apologies.  you can ignore everything I said about PE ratio, ect.  I think we have an understanding now.  You were right.  And I was right.  I just misunderstood your previous comments. 


     

    $650 mid summer? I don't know about that. If they announce and start shipping the iPhone 6, it might hit that if they have enough promising news.  What guidance did Cook make for this current quarter?  I 

  • Reply 173 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    To my knowledge, they aren't using the same machines/floor space/workers to churn these different devices out so why would multiple products cause an issue.



    You know it causes issues? It hasn't so far.

    So Apple met demand for all of the products they announced and released last Christmas?  How long did it take them to catch up with demand?  Within 30 days, 60 days?  I know the 5S was backlogged for a while. So were certain iPads and even the MacPro.



    If they are trying to keep up with demand increases, they have to increase daily production. In the last 12 months, they've sold 158+ Million iPhones (with additional phones in transit and inventory) and it wasn't recently (I forget the actual date of the article) that they reached 500,000 a day.  500,000 x 30 x 12 = 180 Million iPhones a year and that's without holidays, vacations, and working 24/7.  How the F do you think they are going to increase their abilities to meet the demand for a brand new size with a HUGE pent up demand AND a product refresh of the existing 4 inch models at the same time with only the MAXIMUM abilities to make 180 Million iPhones if they ran production 24/7?   IM-FREAKING-POSSIBLE.    

  • Reply 174 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    I'm not expected $650 till at least mid summer.

     

    I'm not locked into selling at $650.  If things are looking really good I might hold on to $700 in the Nov time frame.

     

    About my previous comments:

     

    I think I misunderstood your comments.  Apologies.  you can ignore everything I said about PE ratio, ect.  I think we have an understanding now.  You were right.  And I was right.  I just misunderstood your previous comments. 


    Check out over the last year's stock price, it took a nosedive during the summer months.  So, I kind hate to tell you, but they are GOING to have to release and ship the iPhone 6 and some other MAJOR announcements at WWDC and you better pray there is enough people to kick this stock up.  The summer months are the worst times to sell a high tech stock.  Just a generality.  You want to sell HIGH.  Remember, buy low, sell high.

  • Reply 175 of 188
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,927member
    drblank wrote: »
    So Apple met demand for all of the products they announced and released last Christmas?  How long did it take them to catch up with demand?  Within 30 days, 60 days?  I know the 5S was backlogged for a while. So were certain iPads and even the MacPro.


    If they are trying to keep up with demand increases, they have to increase daily production. In the last 12 months, they've sold 158+ Million iPhones (with additional phones in transit and inventory) and it wasn't recently (I forget the actual date of the article) that they reached 500,000 a day.  500,000 x 30 x 12 = 180 Million iPhones a year and that's without holidays, vacations, and working 24/7.  How the F do you think they are going to increase their abilities to meet the demand for a brand new size with a HUGE pent up demand AND a product refresh of the existing 4 inch models at the same time with only the MAXIMUM abilities to make 180 Million iPhones if they ran production 24/7?   IM-FREAKING-POSSIBLE.    

    Apple always increases production every year and demand always increases as well. Say they meet demand for the first quarter after release, then what. They'll have to start drawing down production sooner than usual. When that happens, WS will flip out and sell.

    Having higher demand is a good thing.
    drblank wrote: »
    Check out over the last year's stock price, it took a nosedive during the summer months.  So, I kind hate to tell you, but they are GOING to have to release and ship the iPhone 6 and some other MAJOR announcements at WWDC and you better pray there is enough people to kick this stock up.  The summer months are the worst times to sell a high tech stock.  Just a generality.  You want to sell HIGH.  Remember, buy low, sell high.

    Apple didn't miss its expectations. WS did. Why should Apple be punished because of clueless analysts.
  • Reply 176 of 188
    sog35 wrote: »
    You need to realize most analysis calculate earnings 2 or 3 years ahead.  If Apple does 10% growth for 3 years the accumulated growth will be over 30% because of compounding. 

    The reason why Apple was trading at $535 is because of Wall Street BS.  Period.  Earnings growth at 10-15% justifies a PE in the high teens.  A PE of 17.50 would put Apple at $700.  Costco has a PE of 24 and only grew earnings at 18% last year.

    Google is not even close to a startup.  They already dominate internet advertising and are having trouble growing earnings.  Their revenue was up 27% last quarter but profits were up only 1%.  Problem is advertisers are not willing to spend the same amount of money on mobile ads in contrast to desktop ads.  Thus their cost per click has gone down the last 9 quarters in a row.  Also startups don't spend $20B acquiring companies like Motorolla. 

    Precisely. drblank seems to have filled this thread up with his verbal diarrhoea.
  • Reply 177 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post





    Apple always increases production every year and demand always increases as well. Say they meet demand for the first quarter after release, then what. They'll have to start drawing down production sooner than usual. When that happens, WS will flip out and sell.



    Having higher demand is a good thing.

    Apple didn't miss its expectations. WS did. Why should Apple be punished because of clueless analysts.

    A stock price doesn't usually reflect what they did the prior quarter, it's just based on what people believe will happen in the future.

     

    I think you are confusing Wall Street with the market.  Who invests in companies?  Institutions, individuals.  It's just based on what people feel is a good price moving forward.  They didn't really do that great last year and the stock reflected it.  Usually in the summer months things slow down for high tech stocks, it's kind of been that way for as long as I can remember because people go on vacations (even most of Europe basically grinds to a halt for about a month) and high tech related products usually don't sell as well.  Overall, I don't think Apple did that well last year from a growth perspective, which is why people invest, they are betting that the company will grow in profits and that the stock price will in turn grow.  If they don't think it will grow, or grow as much as it was, then they will pull out stock and invest in something else that will grow.



    The biggest thing that's been happening with Apple is that they are NOT a high growth company in Hyper growth mode that they've seen for over a decade and a lot of investors might have been in Apple stock because of that High Growth potential and then when they see that it isn't in High Growth anymore, that they decide to move their money into another stock that is in High Growth.  At least that's what I'm seeing and this started happening when they started paying dividends.  So, as a dividend stock, it's more of a stable growth (or at least supposed to be) company that's not in high growth mode and you buy it so that the dividends help pay you interest for just keeping the money in the stock so it becomes a safer bet.  It's just a shift in perspective about the company, the stock and what to expect.  I know some of these characters on Wall Street are idiots, but some aren't.  You just have to sit and actually listen to what they are saying and THINK about it and then they sometimes make sense, even if you don't want to hear it.   There are a variety of different ways to look at a company and sometimes you might not be looking at the right signals to determine if it's a good investment or not.  I got a little pissed when the stock took a dump, but when I sat back and looked at what caused it, I understood why.   It was just flat out overvalued when it hit it's high point.  I think that today's close makes it slightly overvalued and if I was going to buy into Apple, i would wait until that P/E goes down to something like 10 or 11 at the most, then I would consider buying into it.

  • Reply 178 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member

    What I think might be happening is that there are some investors that are triggering some pump and dump mentality that really have a good feel for when the stock is overvalued and undervalued and all they are doing is buying when they see Apple at a low and then dumping stock when it's at a high, which is basic stock trading of the concept of buying low and selling high.

     

    IF you aren't doing that, then it's nobody else's fault but your own. That's the fundamental laws of getting into the market.



    Now, there are mutual funds that had a heavy investment in Apple over the years because the particular mutual fund was investing in a certain group (growth) and if they don't see Apple fitting the requirements of the mutual fund, then they might decide to liquidate since their investors want the biggest ROI and if Apple isn't fitting the criteria they have for being part of the portfolio, then that mutual may dump stock, so that's PART of a large drop in price.

  • Reply 179 of 188
    hill60hill60 Posts: 6,992member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by drblank View Post

     

    What legacy s/w do you have to use  ActiveX running on IE6?



    You didn't know XP is officially dead?  NO security updates anymore, so it's a target for TONS of malicious crap.  Surprise, surprise, surprise.

     

     

    Yeah, I guess installs have dropped down to 27% of the PC run it.  I don't know what the total count of PCs are out there, but it's probably at least a few hundred million people have to switch.

     

    iPads run ActiveX running on IE6?  I did not know that.

     

    If you IT department still has thousands of PC running XP, I would highly question your employment decision.   Maybe it's time to work for a little more progressive company.


     

    Of course I know.

     

    I was pointing out that the 35% you quoted isn't all consumers.

     

    If it ain't broke why waste money fixing it is a lot more prevalent than you imply.

     

    They are being progressive, if they have to invest in updating legacy software, why do it on Windows?

  • Reply 180 of 188
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,385member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

     

     

    Of course I know.

     

    I was pointing out that the 35% you quoted isn't all consumers.

     

    If it ain't broke why waste money fixing it is a lot more prevalent than you imply.

     

    They are being progressive, if they have to invest in updating legacy software, why do it on Windows?


    Well, if the computer you have been using isn't supported and there's no more security updates, I would be VERY nervous about future malware for that OS version.  That's what a lot of XP users may find out the hard way.

     

    Well, there might be a lot of XP systems that are barely used, I can understand that.  If I had an XP system, I wouldn't use it either unless i had to.   :-)

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