Apple's iPhone 5c ate up Android while Google's Moto X flopped: why everyone was wrong

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  • Reply 181 of 220
    hejishhejish Posts: 4member
    Mr. Dilger,

    Your comment about the core ad business collapsing intrigued me. I took the opportunity to read some recent 10-Q's from Google:
    Q1 2014: cost per click dropped 9%, P32
    Q4 2013: cost per click dropped 8%, P28
    Q3 2013: cost per click dropped 8%, P33
    Q2 2013: cost per click dropped 6%, P32
    Q1 2013: cost per click dropped 4%, P29

    It does seem to be a pattern that I feel comfortable calling a collapse. However, the rate of increased number of clicks always seems to outpace the cost per click decrease, resulting in increased revenues for Google. That makes the concept that Google's business is collapsing seem not true. Do you care to comment further?
  • Reply 182 of 220
    512ke512ke Posts: 782member

    Samsung, Moto, and Amazon are going to have problems going forward.

     

    They have Apple beating them at the top of the market and Chinese manufacturers beating them increasingly at the bottom.

     

    The middle is also going more to Apple, especially once the iPhone 6 comes out, pushing the 5S to mid tier pricing and the 5C toward the lower end.

     

    Apple won't compete at the bottom, but they are gonna be pretty formidable this year at the middle/top and top.

     

    So watch out, Samsung, Google, and Amazon -- I personally predict a tough remainder of 2014 for all 3 companies at least in terms of smartphone sales.

     

    I was dead right about the 5C, in lots of posts on these forums, and I'll betcha I'm dead right about this too!

  • Reply 183 of 220
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    In my view the bad press over the 5C was mostly because the media and analysts convinced themselves that Apple will and has to offer a cheap phone to say competitive in Asia. However, that is what the 4svis, whereas the 5C was intended for the middle (at least upon introduction). The same media/analysist then punished Apple fore not meeting their expectations without really considering what Apple had up their sleeve.

    When as Aplle ever cared to compete at the bottom. Almost never. Maybe iPod nanosecond could be considered the low end of a very mature market that is gradually being eclipsed by the iPhone. It is a safe bet that any analyst that predicts Apple will release some cheap device to lock up market share doesn't understand apple.
    Doesn't help that a lot of posters on sites like this ripped the 5C - either because it was plastic, colors were bad, too expensive, etc.
  • Reply 184 of 220
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member
    Originally Posted by hill60 View Post

    The free Apps alone are worth more than some shitty Android phone.

     

    That’s not just a marketing statement. It’s very probably quantifiable.

  • Reply 185 of 220
    hill60hill60 Posts: 6,992member
    wovel wrote: »
    Because you still see few if any analysts calling Google's Motorola adventure a failure. It was an absolute undeniable failure, but no one seems to want to say it.

    Google lit a bonfire with a mountain of cash, yet their share price shot through the roof.

    Go figure!
  • Reply 186 of 220
    emesemes Posts: 239member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by drblank View Post

     

    That's for sure right after Microsoft buys Nokia.  I'm wondering how long it's going to be until Microsoft waves the white flag with Windows phones.  Maybe all Microsoft really cares about is having a tablet and phone that say Microsoft on it because their employees would rather use iPhones and iPads if given the choice.   




    1. The acquisition was completed two days ago

     

    2. I don't think Microsoft would be willing to give up their 3.7% after coming all this way

     

    3. How do you know they prefer iDevices? Don't project your opinion onto other people

  • Reply 187 of 220
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,513member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dachar View Post



    I don't know how Tim Cook can say 85% of purchasers go the iPhone 4S are new to iOS . When I purchased one for my wife from an Apple store no one asked me any questions like this and when I took out a monthly contract for an iPhone 5 no questions were asked either.

    They don't have to survey EVERYBODY in a particular set (e.g. iPhone 4S buyers) in order to correctly extrapolate a trend.  They just need a statistically significant sample, which is typically much smaller than the entire set size, provided the sample is taken in an unbiased manner.

  • Reply 188 of 220
    euphonious wrote: »
    Dilger, why are you obsessed with perpetuating this narrative that analysts and the media have it in for Apple? Every 'editorial' is crammed with 'evidence' that the media downplays Apple's successes and accentuates its failures, and that the opposite is true for Android manufacturers.

    Frankly you seem to have something approaching an obsession with Google and Android OEMs. 

    Exactly. I'm happy for apple's success and bemused by the contrarian positions in the media, but give it a rest. We get it already.

    How about some real insight on apple strategy , what to expect at WWDC, etc. the whole apple great, google bad, media biased schtick is getting old
  • Reply 189 of 220
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by edslunch View Post





    Exactly. I'm happy for apple's success and bemused by the contrarian positions in the media, but give it a rest. We get it already.



    How about some real insight on apple strategy , what to expect at WWDC, etc. the whole apple great, google bad, media biased schtick is getting old

    yea...definitely...even the articles that solely have Apple as a subject end up as some Google/Samsung/Competitor bashing fest...and it clouds so many decent discussions....but the worst thing, IMO, is when some super obvious troll account (not one of the people who have an unpopular opinion that are called trolls) says something it derails the entire discussion...I wish that wouldn't happen either.

     

    But yea...

  • Reply 190 of 220
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post





    Island hermit is one of those 5c haters



    He still has not admitted he was wrong

    was he disliking the phone personally or did he say it would be an utter failure?

     

    He's allowed to dislike the phone whether it sells 100 million or not.

     

    I can dislike Transformers 2 even if it went on to make close to if not a billion dollars....doesn't obligate me to admit anything.

     

    edit: but if he was saying it was going to fail then that's weird...as I thought it was obvious it would sell well...it's not like it's a POS even if you deem it subpar for Apple.

  • Reply 191 of 220
    drblankdrblank Posts: 3,383member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Emes View Post

     



    1. The acquisition was completed two days ago

     

    2. I don't think Microsoft would be willing to give up their 3.7% after coming all this way

     

    3. How do you know they prefer iDevices? Don't project your opinion onto other people


    How do you know?  Well, when the iPad first came out employees were using Microsoft money to buy them and Ballmer put a stop to that and then they started to develop the Surface.

     

    And how much market share did Microsoft have in the Zune before they ditched it?  very small.  Why did they ditch Zune?  Lost money.



    Microsoft runs each of these as "businesses", if the "business" doesn't run profitable, why keep it?  it just destroys margin.



    The play on the Xbox is that it creates demand for users to buy games, which is why Microsoft bought a bunch of game software.  Software has a 90% gross profit and going up if it's a digital download because it's the cost of the CD/DVD and packaging. So software sales HELPS their margins.  Hardware is not at 90% gross margin, it's substantially lower than that.  Look at Apple, which is typically know how to make a REASONABLE gross profit but depending on the model and whether it's sold direct or through a reseller, hardware gross margins are in the 30 to 40% gross profit.  Where there is up side on profits is by selling support contracts with the hardware sales. 

     

    Now, Microsoft had problems selling Surface, to the point where they dumped about 1 million units and write off about $1 Billion if I'm not mistaken.



    Nokia wasn't making a profit selling Windows phones, were they?  How much additional profit is Microsoft going to make and how long is it going to take to recoup the investment they made in BUYING Nokia?  Apple knows how to take control over the Premium line of smartphones and tablets where they make a decent profit.  Everyone else has to discount their products to sell and therefor make less profit or break even.



    What makes you think that Microsoft is going to get Windows phones successful when they have about 4% of the market and Apple's getting ready to release their larger screen models (FINALLY)?  My belief is that everyone else will be battling it out for the lower priced, lower margin, little to no profit products as Apple doesn't really go after that side of the business.  Does Microsoft want to keep a brand/product line that has little to no profit margin that has very little chance of making money?  For how long?  Microsoft isn't viewed as a major player in smartphone business.  They might have control over the desktop/laptop when a company only buys Microsoft, but so far, Microsoft is getting horrible traction in the Enterprise, almost no traction in the Educational market and very little consumer attention.



    So again, why would Microsoft keep an obvious losing proposition for a long period.  What are they thinking is going to happen?  Do they have to force their Enterprise customers to only use hardware with the name Microsoft on it?  

  • Reply 192 of 220
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 5,820member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MathieuLLF View Post



    Another fanboy propaganda piece from Apple Insider. Why am I not surprised?



    Surprise for you means seeing what's beyond the confines of your parent's basement.  Buzz off troll.

  • Reply 193 of 220
    ingsocingsoc Posts: 212member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post





    I seldom read a post so wrong. In truth, this maters to, perhaps, a few million people not hundreds of millions. Having file system access is the like you are advocating is the PRIMARY failure of Android and the main reason I don't recommend it to the average person. What you are advocating is a return to the 90's mindset of computing and I am personally happy to leave those concepts in the 90's.

     

    Bingo. You couldn't be more right about this one.

    Many of the features that are offered by Android phones are not even remotely keeping many millions of people away from iPhone. I never cease to be amazed at how an Apple-basher can sit there and say that some obscure or fairly technical feature is some sort of "Android killer app" that Apple is missing out on. Rubbish.

     

    do think, however, that price is a very significant factor for many. It is probably true that many people want to own an iPhone, but simply can't afford it. The iPhone 5c story really highlights this point very well, given the high percentage of owners who are entirely new to iPhone.

     

    Also I think it's valid to point out some of the biases that are going on. No, it's not all anti-Apple out there...but there's just so much ridiculous anti-Apple stuff, especially in tech journalism. I wonder if some of this comes from audience pressure - you only have to look at the comments on Engadget for example, some of them border on outright harassment!

     

    Of course, we should be fair on all organisations in the space, whether they are Apple, Google or otherwise. But still, there is a very strong undercurrent of anti-Apple bias out there and I think it does need some correction.

  • Reply 194 of 220
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Steven N. View Post





    While the Moto X was a decent design it was a complete market failure mostly because Google put too much faint on "customizability".

    that...and also at this stage in the smartphone game the only thing that would be able to uproot Samsung on the Android side would be a complete paradigm shift near the level of what the iPhone was....well not exactly that extreme but I hope I painted a decent picture of my point.

     

    Or better marketing...the Moto X didn't have good marketing...and it's main feature was something you had to wait for...and most people are fans of instant gratification and aren't willing to wait.

     

    I dunno...I feel it was handled wrong.

     

    I bought one a while back but returned it...my Nexus felt better to me (though the Moto X was a solidly designed phone...as is the G which feels much more premium than the 199 off contract price.

     

    I dunno...I personally see a rather bleak future for high end Android phones...that aren't Samesung...

     

    and that kinda sucks, as I do like Android.

     

    But at least it aided the advancement of smartphones (and some notsosmart phones) in developing nations...that's cool I guess.

  • Reply 195 of 220
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,660member
    This is one case where Jony Ive cost made the company big money with the ambition of his design.

    Fixed that for you...
  • Reply 196 of 220
    docno42docno42 Posts: 3,660member
    GrangerFX wrote: »
    The 5c will cost you $550 to replace since Apple Care does not cover water damage.

    Ya know, an amazing thing happens when I treat a $550 device like a $550 device and not a $40 - it doesn't get wet! Or broken! Or dropped, smashed, or otherwise abused.

    Funny that. Five iPods, three Mac Books, four iPhones and two iPads later and not one wet device, broken screen or even the need for a case or screen protector. I dunno what is so hard with people in paying attention and not flinging their devices around? Sounds like you would be better off with an insurance policy rather than compromising for a crap device that you are working overtime convincing yourself is the equivalent to a $550 iPhone.
  • Reply 197 of 220
    croprcropr Posts: 1,053member

    Just saw the 2014 Q1 market share figures released by Kantar.  I cannot say they are impressive for Apple.  Although the sales figures of the IPhone are growing, the smartphone market is growing faster, In Italy, the iOS market share (12.9%) is even below Windows Phone(13.9%) and one cannot say that Italy is an underdeveloped country where people don't have the money to buy iPhones.

    I do agree that the iPhone is a great product but in countries where the telco's don't subsidize the phone via a 2 year contract, its market share is below 20%, which is nit great.  The article of the editor contains valuable points but is too optmistic about the iPhone.  the reality is lsightly different

  • Reply 198 of 220
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,678member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cropr View Post

     

    Just saw the 2014 Q1 market share figures released by Kantar.  I cannot say they are impressive for Apple.  Although the sales figures of the IPhone are growing, the smartphone market is growing faster, In Italy, the iOS market share (12.9%) is even below Windows Phone(13.9%) and one cannot say that Italy is an underdeveloped country where people don't have the money to buy iPhones.

    I do agree that the iPhone is a great product but in countries where the telco's don't subsidize the phone via a 2 year contract, its market share is below 20%, which is nit great.  The article of the editor contains valuable points but is too optmistic about the iPhone.  the reality is lsightly different


     

    Well they kinda are these days. Cook knows that there is a problem in Europe - Apple claim that they have increased share in the UK and Germany as it happens, and no doubt there will be a cheaper iPhone out some time for the mid tier off contract market. 

    I think Apple should worry about Windows though, as the OS is pretty good and the API is decent, so it has the capacity to attract devs and keep them in a way that the cheaper Android phones can’t and won’t. 

     

    Its all to play for next year. Android is losing it's brand, too much cheap rubbish. One major player, and that's it. Apple can incrementally reduce prices at the mid tier and increase them at the higher end, and it will be sitting on a gold mine. 

  • Reply 199 of 220
    habihabi Posts: 317member

    I dont believe this will happen anytime soon (file system in any kind of usefull way) . Maybe if Apple keeps loosing more market share. And regarding wifi. Its not always available and who wants to lug around your own accesspoint on vacation when there is no wifi or make ad-hoc networks. Count me out. What I cant understand why you cant use the camera kit witch works with the ipads. And another one: why cant you offload pics and video to SDcard via that kit from the phone. No you will have to lug that mac along all those travels if you use your iphone.

  • Reply 200 of 220
    mde24mde24 Posts: 27member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

     

    As for your typical nerd requirements, no, hundreds of millions of people are NOT looking for these things. They are looking for something easy to use, reasonably priced, something they can send email with, watch movies, send texts, and an ecosystem that won’t infect their device every time they install something.


     

    As a professional nerd, these are not "nerd requirements", they're "wannabe nerd requirements."  As a professional nerd I work all day fixing things that other people have broken, I don't want to spend my spare time doing the same for my family.  iDevices are appliances, not general purpose computers, which is great:

     

    Missing USB ports -> It's a phone, not a computer

    Missing a file system -> See above

    Jailed -> Good. My wife can't break it

    Sandboxed files and applications -> See above

    Expensive -> No, they're not. Amortise the cost over the length of time software support is available (3-4 years cf. 1 year for an Android if you're lucky) and the iPhone is *really* cheap.

     

    Any real nerd will understand that a phone is a piece of production equipment, and if you play with it and it all heads South then it can be expensive in terms of call/SMS/data charges, potentially damaging in case of emergency, and - even worse - a loss of internet connection while on the move!  There will be people who want a phone as a toy/project *in addition to* their production phone, but these people will number in the hundreds-of-thousands, not hundreds-of-millions.

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