Apple's recent stock price surge leaves prominent analysts projections in the dust

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited May 2014
Recent gains by Apple's stock have pushed its share price past some Wall Street analysts' price targets, leaving their forecasts underwater, while others could be next if the upward trend continues.

Apple


Among investment firms tracked by AppleInsider, three institutions are now projecting prices for AAPL stock that is below its current share price. The lowest is Maynard Um of Wells Fargo, who has a "valuation range" of between $515 and $585 for Apple.

That range is actually a slight increase from his previous range of $505 to $575 held a month ago. The price range was updated after Apple reported better-than-expected March quarter results alongside an increased capital reinvestment program and forthcoming 7-for-1 stock split.
Shares of Apple topped $600 on Monday, the first time they have held that level since late 2012.
Also underwater is analyst Ben A. Reitzes with Barclays, whose latest research note on Apple carried a price target of $590. That, too, was increased in late April from a previous price target of $570.

Finally, Charlie Wolf with Needham also has a price target of $590. However, unlike his peers, Wolf elects to update his price target biannually: once in February and again in August.

That means that Wolf's current price target of $590 may remain in place for another three months. His last revision in February reduced his forecasted price for shares of AAPL from $595.

Apple broke past the $600 threshold on Monday just before markets closed. That marked the first time the company's stock has reached that level since November of 2012.

Shares of AAPL remained around the $600 level throughout morning trading on Tuesday, which leaves a few more analysts in danger of seeing their own projections end up underwater quickly if Apple's stock price continues to grow.

Currently cutting it close are Michael Walkley of Canaccord Genuity and Keith Bachman of BMO Capital Markets, both of whom have price targets of $610 for AAPL shares.

On the high end, Brian White of Cantor Fitzgerald has held his projected Apple price of $777 per share for some time. The next highest followed by AppleInsider is Rob Cihra of Evercore Partners, who increased his target to $700 last month.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 35
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,985member
    All of which makes it obvious they have no clue what they are doing and anyone taking their financial advice should call me, I have a bridge in London to sell them.
  • Reply 2 of 35
    tallest skiltallest skil Posts: 43,399member

    Why are they not fired? Why are we not calling for them to be fired? Why is Apple not calling for them to be fired?

  • Reply 3 of 35
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 6,691member

    Like being wrong will make them rethink their analysis of AAPL. Look, these people get paid to do research and make recommendations to clients. You win some, you lose some, but it’s the overall track record that gets you credibility. These analysts have been wrong more than they have been right about AAPL. Apple’s DNA is anathema to these guys. Warren Buffet has a big rule he follows when choosing to invest. He has said on numerous occasions to not buy stock in any company who’s business you don’t understand. 

  • Reply 4 of 35
    sowardsoward Posts: 31member
    I dunno -- I've heard bad things about the bridge market -- I think it's about to collapse.
  • Reply 5 of 35
    I'm confident the bridge market will get over its current barriers.
  • Reply 6 of 35
    drowdrow Posts: 121member

    these guys are still throwing rune stones and reading tea leaves

  • Reply 7 of 35
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,104member
    Then there's people like Constable Odo, who literally worship every words these guys say, and sets the stock price, and words of analysts and investors as the ultimate measure of Apple's success/failure. It's just another level of small-minded stupidity.

    By the way, before I bought a bunch of shares in the 400s, for kicks I took my financial advisor's opinion. He expressed to me in no uncertain terms that this would be a terrible move, as Apple is only going to spiral downwards, and literally investing in any other tech company would be the better option. I told him I'd consider his "advice", and of course went ahead anyway. I actually also told my parents they should buy @ that price, but he convinced them not to. Just goes to show that people that are supposedly "educated" about this shit, and you pay big $$ to, don't have a fucking clue, and their advise is just random guesses- most often wrong. People should stop taking these charlatans seriously.
  • Reply 8 of 35
    Of course everyone's projections will have to be restated/updated after the AAPL stock split in June. So they get an opportunity to re-jig their numbers without having to cop to the fact that they were a bit off this month!
  • Reply 9 of 35
    bushman4bushman4 Posts: 797member
    Anal-ists. Not Analysts
  • Reply 10 of 35
    512ke512ke Posts: 781member

    In baseball, if you got a hit 50% of the time, you'd be an all-time superstar.  The same is true of Analysts.  If they are right half the time, they're at the top of their game.

     

    My own financial advisor has been both right and wrong about Apple.  When I bought super low, the reaction was, "good luck you'll need it, that's crazy."  When I panicked and sold a third of my position around 400, my analyst said, "don't sell, this is the finest company in tech, you are crazy."  

     

    Right now my advisor wants me to buy... railroad stocks.  International railroads.  To diversify.

     

    I just think Apple is a good long term investment because, 1) the world is changing with technology becoming an ever-increasing part of our lives, 2) Apple has a culture of innovation and integration, and 3) Apple has boatloads of cash, so if they don't get it right today, you know they will have more opportunities tomorrow.

     

    Those 3 reasons suggest, to me, that Apple in the LONG run will go and stay up.  I think the weighing machine will agree *ultimately.

  • Reply 11 of 35
    dickprinterdickprinter Posts: 1,060member
    What about Herman Munster?
  • Reply 12 of 35
    rs9rs9 Posts: 68member

    Any thoughts; after the 7 to 1 split, how fast it will go back up to the current $600 per share price?

  • Reply 13 of 35
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 30,720member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by soward View Post



    I dunno -- I've heard bad things about the bridge market -- I think it's about to collapse.

     

    The bridge market is rising. Over time it will see many ups and downs.

  • Reply 14 of 35
    plovellplovell Posts: 795member
    Quote:



    Originally Posted by 512ke View Post

     

    In baseball, if you got a hit 50% of the time, you'd be an all-time superstar.  The same is true of Analysts.  If they are right half the time, they're at the top of their game.


    Yeah but ... baseball is not a binary system. Analysts can get the direction right 50% of the time just by chance. An analyst who is getting 70-80% right will be a star, not at 50%.

     

    The fundamental problem is that the way Apple works is not the same way that other tech companies work. And that the analysts keep basing their analysis on the general behavior rather than the Apple-specific one they have observed. 

     

    When the starting premises are flawed, it is any wonder that the resulting analysis is worthless ?

  • Reply 15 of 35
    drowdrow Posts: 121member
    ffs, why would anyone pay someone else a lot of their money to tell them how to invest their lot of money? you may as well take a hundred dollar bill for every hour you think about your investments and set it on fire.
  • Reply 16 of 35
    plovellplovell Posts: 795member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by drow View Post



    ffs, why would anyone pay someone else a lot of their money to tell them how to invest their lot of money? you may as well take a hundred dollar bill for every hour you think about your investments and set it on fire.

    For the same reason that I hire a plumber when that work needs doing. Difference is that plumbers generally know what they're doing and sometimes "analysts" do not. For people who are not familiar with investments, hiring a professional is a good move, but he/she needs to be good.

  • Reply 17 of 35
    manxmanmanxman Posts: 31member
    I think analysts should go to wall-mark, buy some wood & nails, then build a bridge, and get over it.
  • Reply 18 of 35
    future manfuture man Posts: 100member
    These are not 'analysts', they are 'guessers'.
  • Reply 19 of 35
    konqerrorkonqerror Posts: 685member

    Uh, there's absolutely nothing wrong with having a target stock price under the current price. For example, Blackberry is at $7.67 right now, and I predict a target of $0.

  • Reply 20 of 35
    MacProMacPro Posts: 17,985member
    konqerror wrote: »
    Uh, there's absolutely nothing wrong with having a target stock price under the current price. For example, Blackberry is at $7.67 right now, and I predict a target of $0.

    LOL
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