BMO sees Apple selling 189M iPhones & 12M Watches in fiscal 2015, raises target to $110

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited September 2014
With high hopes for the newly released iPhone 6, BMO Capital Markets has increased its price target for Apple stock to $110 with a recommendation that investors buy in ahead of a big 2015.




Analyst Keith Bachman has maintained his "outperform" rating for shares of AAPL, and in a research note issued this week provided to AppleInsider, he also increased his projected iPhone sales to 189 million units in fiscal 2015. For the upcoming holiday quarter, he believes Apple will sell 58 million iPhones, but cautioned that number could be conservative if the iPhone 6 launches in China sooner rather than later.

Bachman's forecast calls for the average selling price of the iPhone to increase to $637. His estimates peg the 4.7-inch iPhone 6 accounting for 70 to 75 percent of total sales of the latest generation of models, while he believes the 5.5-inch iPhone 6 Plus will take 25 to 30 percent of units in fiscal 2015.




As for the forthcoming Apple Pay mobile payment service tied to the iPhone 6 and Apple Watch, Bachman doesn't expect this to have a significant effect on the company's bottom line as it looks to establish its service. Through fiscal 2016, he sees Apple Pay helping to drive iPhone sales, but not adding "meaningful incremental revenues" for the Cupertino, Calif., based company.

Bachman also predicts that the company will sell 12 million of the Apple Watch in fiscal 2015, which runs through the end of September. For calendar 2015, he sees the company selling 20 million units.

Finally, Bachman has reduced his iPad estimates by 9.5 million units for fiscal 2015, to 58 million. He believes Apple's new, bigger iPhones will cannibalize some iPad sales -- and in his eyes, that's a good thing for Apple's bottom line.

"If Apple sells one iPhone and does not sell one iPad mini, Apple increases gross profit by about $200, all else equal," he said.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 41
    chadbagchadbag Posts: 1,094member
    ---
    "If Apple sells one iPhone and does not sell one iPad mini, Apple increases gross profit by about $200, all else equal," he said.
    ---


    That is only good if the person wasn't going to buy an iPhone AND an iPad mini and are getting two for one.
  • Reply 2 of 41
    The watch isn't finished yet. How can you predict anything on it.
  • Reply 3 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jungmark View Post



    The watch isn't finished yet. How can you predict anything on it.

     

    When has that ever stopped any analysts from predicting anything before?<img class=" src="http://forums-files.appleinsider.com/images/smilies//lol.gif" /> 

     

    These clowns can't even predict what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone months from now, or a year from now.

  • Reply 4 of 41

    Apple is one battery technology breakthrough away from completely rolling up the mobile computing market.  Of course that's the hard part. But when that breakthrough, and the quantum leap in mobile device functionality that it enables, arrives, Apple will have the infrastructure and ecosystem that is best equipped for it.  It's worth sitting on AAPL and waiting years for it to happen.

  • Reply 5 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

     

    When has that ever stopped any analysts from predicting anything before?<img class=" src="http://forums-files.appleinsider.com/images/smilies//lol.gif" /> 

     

    These clowns can't even predict what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone months from now, or a year from now.




    If you're a serious investor, you have no choice but try to make predictions.  

  • Reply 6 of 41

    As for AAPL, it's looking good today again!

     

    Apple did a good job in quickly squashing any BS that was circulating around.

     

    The iOS 8 mess up was a legitimate issue and it was a screw up by Apple, though it was very limited in scope. Apple did the right thing and got right on top of it and issued a fix the very next day! 

     

    Apple also quickly reacted to any of the bend BS that has also been circulating and being spread by youtube whores.

     

    We've seen this time and time again, when there is nothing legitimate to complain about, people will invent FUD.

  • Reply 7 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

     

    If you're a serious investor, you have no choice but try to make predictions.  


     

    I make my own decisions and predictions, without the help of any analysts.

     

    I'm not even sure how analysts operate. Do they actually have any skin in the game themselves? Are they even allowed to?

  • Reply 8 of 41
    tundraboy wrote: »
    Apple is one battery technology breakthrough away from completely rolling up the mobile computing market.  Of course that's the hard part. But when that breakthrough, and the quantum leap in mobile device functionality that it enables, arrives, Apple will have the infrastructure and ecosystem that is best equipped for it.  It's worth sitting on AAPL and waiting years for it to happen.

    Very good insight! They have the cash to jump on anything (like a revolutionary battery) new, buying it out such that the competition is left without.
  • Reply 9 of 41
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 17,035member

    Apple is DOOMED!

  • Reply 10 of 41

    Bullish on Apple? That's crazy! Look at all the reports that the iPhone 6 Plus bends! It's a disaster! The stock tanked! Apple is doomed!

    I'm willing to bet Samsung is behind that very convenient wave of bad PR... Which had been extremely well handled by Apple. What's funny is that to this day people still refer to "antennagate" as if it were a real problem, when in reality it was never anything more than a tempest in a teapot.

    I have to say, so far I'm loving my 6 Plus but man, it is a monster of a phone.

  • Reply 11 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

     

    I make my own decisions and predictions, without the help of any analysts.

     

    I'm not even sure how analysts operate. Do they actually have any skin in the game themselves? Are they even allowed to?




    I don't base my investing decision mainly on analysts reports, but that's still information available in the market, and you still have to take it into account when making investment calls.  It would be foolish not to.  And maybe what analysts say is important information not because you think they are accurate, reliable or correct, but because it gives you some insight into what other investor's might be thinking.  Now that is useful information because in a way success in stock investing is based on how well you out-think other investors.  And if you know what they're thinking, you're already a step ahead.

  • Reply 12 of 41
    mispost.  meant to edit clicked reply

  • Reply 13 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

     

    I don't base my investing decision mainly on analysts reports, but that's still information available in the market, and you still have to take it into account when making investment calls.  It would be foolish not to.  And maybe what analysts say is important information not because you think they are accurate, reliable or dependable, but because it gives you some insight into what other investor's might be thinking.  Now that is useful information because in a way success in stock investing is based on how well you out-think other investors.  And if you know what they're thinking, you're already a step ahead.


     

    I agree with that.

  • Reply 14 of 41
    rob53rob53 Posts: 2,032member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

     

    I make my own decisions and predictions, without the help of any analysts.

     

    I'm not even sure how analysts operate. Do they actually have any skin in the game themselves? Are they even allowed to?


    They usually are required to document whether they have any interest in a particular stock but unless you get their actual statement, any disclaimer could have been dropped. They don't necessarily have to document whether they are long or short on a particular stock so a gambler, oops, I mean investor (whatever that is anymore), needs to research the history of an analyst to try and determine whether their advice is there for an actual gain or whether it's there for manipulating the stock to reach the analyst's target. 

     

    I agree with you on making your own decisions and not letting for-profit analysts mess with your mind. 

  • Reply 15 of 41

    a paltry 189 million predicted iPhones sold? and this analyst firm wants to tell people to invest in apple? 

  • Reply 16 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tundraboy View Post

     



    I don't base my investing decision mainly on analysts reports, but that's still information available in the market, and you still have to take it into account when making investment calls.  It would be foolish not to.  And maybe what analysts say is important information not because you think they are accurate, reliable or correct, but because it gives you some insight into what other investor's might be thinking.  Now that is useful information because in a way success in stock investing is based on how well you out-think other investors.  And if you know what they're thinking, you're already a step ahead.


     

    Outhinking other investors mainly important if you trade short term, say 3 years for a tech stock, it is a lot less important, unless your tech stock's PE ratio is criminally overvalued and guessing when the stock will crash back to earth, is part of your outhinking...

     

    In value investing, the outthinking part only matters in timing your incremental sales and buys, so you don't pay more than you need to, or lose out on some profit because of a temporary selling spree.

  • Reply 17 of 41
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by foggyhill View Post

     

     

    Outhinking other investors mainly important if you trade short term, say 3 years for a tech stock, it is a lot less important, unless your tech stock's PE ratio is criminally overvalued and guessing when the stock will crash back to earth, is part of your outhinking...

     

    In value investing, the outthinking part only matters in timing your incremental sales and buys, so you don't pay more than you need to, or lose out on some profit because of a temporary selling spree.




    Agree completely.  Even if you're investing long term, if you're planning to buy AAPL, yesterday was a good day to pounce.  As I said, why not use all the information that is out there?

  • Reply 18 of 41
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

     

    When has that ever stopped any analysts from predicting anything before?<img class=" src="http://forums-files.appleinsider.com/images/smilies//lol.gif" /> 

     

    These clowns can't even predict what's going to happen tomorrow, let alone months from now, or a year from now.


    This analysis assumes the watch will be finished and sold. All predictions are all based on a base set of assumptions. I can't believe you guys are trying to drag the analyst because they assumed the watch would in fact be released in 2015 given Apple's recent history.

  • Reply 19 of 41

    It's important of course to figure out which analysts are at least actually trying to guess/predict correctly, rather than overtly manipulating the stock.

     

    For instance, you get a site like BusinessInsider which just exists to offer biased POVs as per the wishes of their sponsors.

     

    I think its like movie critics personally: only a few of them are worth a damn, but at least, you know their typical responses to things, so you can take their recommendations with an appropriate pinch of salt.

  • Reply 20 of 41
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,511member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Apple ][ View Post

     

     

    I make my own decisions and predictions, without the help of any analysts.

     

    I'm not even sure how analysts operate. Do they actually have any skin in the game themselves? Are they even allowed to?


    It depends on what firm these analysts work for and what their role is in it.  So some analysts can have positions (long or short, etc) in the stocks they cover, and others can't.  But regardless, if they do have positions, they are compelled to disclose the relevant positions for every communication they put out.  If they don't, they can get in deep, deep, doo-doo.  

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