Apple to hold investor call for first-time bond offering in euros - report

1235

Comments

  • Reply 81 of 116
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by melgross View Post





    So neither of us should have commented, correct?



    Just my opinion, and please don't take this as an attack, but it seems you're very combative this morning. May I inquire why? I'm actually in a very good mood considering the huge jump with AAPL. I hope you didn't short the stock for some reason.

  • Reply 82 of 116
    Originally Posted by knowitall View Post

    At this moment GB wants out of the EU and Merkel (from Germany) seems to agree. But it's hard to say what will happen to Europe.

     

    And to throw another wrench in the works, Catalonia’s a few days from declaring independence. Spain won’t accept it, but do they have a choice?

  • Reply 83 of 116
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by knowitall View Post





    At this moment GB wants out of the EU and Merkel (from Germany) seems to agree.

    Several other countries want out but the governments don't let them and refuse a referendum.

    Italie is a big country and very important, maybe it will split up in a north and south (the north has far more industries).

    But it's hard to say what will happen to Europe.



    I think Merkel will be pressured by Germans to leave the EU since they are practically the only country paying for their "collective" mess. My guess is they will leave within 6 years and the entire EU will unravel soon after.

  • Reply 84 of 116
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    More evidence that "stimulus" is and has always been a Keynesian fraud.

    The stimulus is not what Keynes suggested. Not QE anyway. He also suggested higher taxes in boom times. Simple dampening.
    No credible economist agrees that stimulus is a legitimate response to economic collapse. Stimulus (in the form of loose lending and "printing money") is what led up to the problems in the first place.

    Yes it did but letting banks fail would have been worse. However I agree with you that QE needs to end now and interest rates go up sooner rather than later.
    Huh? Europe had a 'stimulus'?


    Who knew....

    Not really. Although read my last paragraph.
    He's right, actually.

    The economic situation of Europe would be much better if stimulus had never happened. But because there is too much politics involved, there is no integrity to the Euro economy. The only way it could work is if Europe became a federal state. It won't happen; therefore, Europe is doomed to stagnation or worse without the breakup of the Euro.

    But no real stimulus actually happened. The UK had - and still has - QE.
    knowitall wrote: »
    Not so, the pound is directly tied to the euro, so that doesn't make a difference. Also Germany is doing much better than England, some other countries too.

    Very little true here. Sterling is not tied to the Euro and Germany is faltering. The UK is growing although it is a strange growth with income and wages falling.
    knowitall wrote: »
    At this moment GB wants out of the EU and Merkel (from Germany) seems to agree.
    Several other countries want out but the governments don't let them and refuse a referendum.
    Italie is a big country and very important, maybe it will split up in a north and south (the north has far more industries).
    But it's hard to say what will happen to Europe.

    The UK wouldn't vote for exit right now as it happens according to the latest polls. And Merkel was just saying that if Britain was to try and demand immigration restrictions Germany would prefer the UK left. That's just sabre rattling.

    Back to the EU's limited version of QE - it's a policy to buy corporate bonds not government bonds ( so far at least). Which might explain why Apple is doing this.

    The EU is a strange concoction and has a central bank with no fiscal union. Not even real monetary union as it doesn't issue bonds itself but the individual nations do making QE a political nightmare. Which nations bonds do you buy on the secondary market?
  • Reply 85 of 116
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member

    I think Merkel will be pressured by Germans to leave the EU since they are practically the only country paying for their "collective" mess. My guess is they will leave within 6 years and the entire EU will unravel soon after.

    There is a body of thought in Ireland that Ireland subsidised Germany. Basically by bailing out the Irish banks and their creditors - the bond holders - and rolling that debt into sovereign debt Ireland helped stop a crisis in the creditor banks. Largely German.
  • Reply 86 of 116
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    And to throw another wrench in the works, Catalonia’s a few days from declaring independence. Spain won’t accept it, but do they have a choice?

    That is in line with a trend we have here of countries breaking up in serveral parts (sometimes a lot of parts like Yugoslavia).
    It's the reverse of the country forming process we had a few centuries earlier.
  • Reply 87 of 116
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

     

    Stockman isn't a "serious" economist? Really? Tell me more.

     

    As I recall events, he told the truth during his stay in the Reagan administration and they fired him.


    For starters, I don't think he even majored in Economics (let alone get a PhD in Economics). He was a Budget Director under Reagan, for heaven's sake -- not the head of the CEA or the Fed. Anyone can be a Budget Director. You don't need to be an economist.

     

    That said, check out the following quotes from him -- let me know if they conform to your worldview:

    "(Social Security) has to be means-tested. And Medicare needs to be means-tested...Let the Bush tax cuts expire. Let the capital gains go back to the same rate as ordinary income."

    "The Republican Party has totally abdicated its job in our democracy, which is to act as the guardian of fiscal discipline and responsibility. They're on an anti-tax jihad -- one that benefits the prosperous classes."

    "Ninety-two percent of the wealth is owned by five percent of the people." (Obviously not stated in an approving fashion).

  • Reply 88 of 116
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post

     
    ..... interest rates [should] go up sooner rather than later.


    Why?

  • Reply 89 of 116
    Quote:



    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

     

    For starters, I don't think he even majored in Economics (let alone get a PhD in Economics). He was a Budget Director under Reagan, for heaven's sake -- not the head of the CEA or the Fed. Anyone can be a Budget Director. You don't need to be an economist.

     

    That said, check out the following quotes from him -- let me know if they conform to your worldview:

    "(Social Security) has to be means-tested. And Medicare needs to be means-tested...Let the Bush tax cuts expire. Let the capital gains go back to the same rate as ordinary income."

    "The Republican Party has totally abdicated its job in our democracy, which is to act as the guardian of fiscal discipline and responsibility. They're on an anti-tax jihad -- one that benefits the prosperous classes."

    "Ninety-two percent of the wealth is owned by five percent of the people." (Obviously not stated in an approving fashion)."




    Are you saying you agree or you don't agree with those quotes? If you agree, then why aren't you supporting his current positions? If you don't agree, are you trying to determine if I'm a Republican? (I'm not)...

     

    Are you aware, or have you read his latest book?

     

    http://www.amazon.com/The-Great-Deformation-Corruption-Capitalism/dp/1586489127

     

    New York Times bestseller



    The Great Deformation is a searing look at Washington’s craven response to the recent myriad of financial crises and fiscal cliffs. It counters conventional wisdom with an eighty-year revisionist history of how the American state—especially the Federal Reserve—has fallen prey to the politics of crony capitalism and the ideologies of fiscal stimulus, monetary central planning, and financial bailouts. These forces have left the public sector teetering on the edge of political dysfunction and fiscal collapse and have caused America’s private enterprise foundation to morph into a speculative casino that swindles the masses and enriches the few.



    Defying right- and left-wing boxes, David Stockman provides a catalogue of corrupters and defenders of sound money, fiscal rectitude, and free markets. The former includes Franklin Roosevelt, who fathered crony capitalism; Richard Nixon, who destroyed national financial discipline and the Bretton Woods gold-backed dollar; Fed chairmen Greenspan and Bernanke, who fostered our present scourge of bubble finance and addiction to debt and speculation; George W. Bush, who repudiated fiscal rectitude and ballooned the warfare state via senseless wars; and Barack Obama, who revived failed Keynesian “borrow and spend” policies that have driven the national debt to perilous heights. By contrast, the book also traces a parade of statesmen who championed balanced budgets and financial market discipline including Carter Glass, Harry Truman, Dwight Eisenhower, Bill Simon, Paul Volcker, Bill Clinton, and Sheila Bair.



    Stockman’s analysis skewers Keynesian spenders and GOP tax-cutters alike, showing how they converged to bloat the welfare state, perpetuate the military-industrial complex, and deplete the revenue base—even as the Fed’s massive money printing allowed politicians to enjoy “deficits without tears.” But these policies have also fueled new financial bubbles and favored Wall Street with cheap money and rigged stock and bond markets, while crushing Main Street savers and punishing family budgets with soaring food and energy costs. The Great Deformation explains how we got here and why these warped, crony capitalist policies are an epochal threat to free market prosperity and American political democracy.


  • Reply 90 of 116
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    asdasd wrote: »
    ...
    Very little true here. Sterling is not tied to the Euro and Germany is faltering. The UK is growing although it is a strange growth with income and wages falling.
    The UK wouldn't vote for exit right now as it happens according to the latest polls. And Merkel was just saying that if Britain was to try and demand immigration restrictions Germany would prefer the UK left. That's just sabre rattling.
    ...

    Very little true, but you only mention that I was wrong on the tie between the pound and euro (an honest mistake I must have remembered it wrong or confused it with the past or another country - but I guess your always right?). What other points where little true?
    By the way Germany isn't faltering and GB was nearly bankrupt a few years ago.
    Of course I know the context of Merkels remark, but to my knowledge this is the first time this is mentioned in public.
    And that's an important indication, and I mentioned it because of that!
    Also, the situation is changed very recently so I would be surprised if polls are accurate right now (but let's get a referendum than we will see).
  • Reply 91 of 116
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Why?

    Low interest rates cause asset bubbles. Asset bubbles collapse causing economic damage.

    I am no Austrian and they are wrong on QE but in general low interest rates are a very bad policy long term.
  • Reply 92 of 116
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    knowitall wrote: »
    Very little true, but you only mention that I was wrong on the tie between the pound and euro (an honest mistake I must have remembered it wrong or confused it with the past or another country - but I guess your always right?). What other points where little true?
    Of course I know the context of Merkels remark, but to my knowledge this is the first time this is mentioned in public.
    And that's an important indication, and I mentioned it because of that!

    Yeah ok. I shouldn't have said very little true without tackling all your points. But my post was long enough :-) and the rest if your argument away not really economic so I didn't take it on.
  • Reply 93 of 116
    knowitallknowitall Posts: 1,648member
    asdasd wrote: »
    Yeah ok. I shouldn't have said very little true without tackling all your points. But my post was long enough :-) and the rest if your argument away not really economic so I didn't take it on.

    Ok, my comments are political I guess.
    (I edited my comment by the way.)
  • Reply 94 of 116
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post





    Low interest rates cause asset bubbles. Asset bubbles collapse causing economic damage.



    I am no Austrian and they are wrong on QE but in general low interest rates are a very bad policy long term.



    Considering QE has been a complete bust, perhaps you'd like to explain your comment?

  • Reply 95 of 116
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member

    Considering QE has been a complete bust, perhaps you'd like to explain your comment?

    Considering it hasn't I won't.
  • Reply 96 of 116
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post




    Low interest rates cause asset bubbles. Asset bubbles collapse causing economic damage.



    I am no Austrian and they are wrong on QE but in general low interest rates are a very bad policy long term.

    Really?  

     

    Here are 1-year interest rates during the year of some key recent bubbles (interest rate in the year prior in brackets):

    1987 (Black Monday): 6.8% (6.5%)

    2000 (Dotcom bubble): 6.1% (5.1%)

    2007 (Financial Crisis/Mortgage Bubble): 4.5% (4.9%)

     

    And here are the interest rates since the last crisis:

    2011: 0.18%

    2012: 0.17%

    2013: 0.13%

    Nov 2014: 0.10%

     

    I am sure if you kept saying 'crisis' long enough, you'll be right some day. But so far, the record of the cassandras on this is pretty bad, I'd say. It's not a good idea to substitute 'I have a feeling' for actual data.

  • Reply 97 of 116
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post

     

    Are you aware, or have you read his latest book?


    No, and I don't plan to. Lots of people write books. 

     

    I am still waiting for you to tell us why you think he's a 'serious economist.' (Please know that I have nothing against him -- in fact, I am sure he's quite smart; I am just taking you up on your claim).

  • Reply 98 of 116
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post



    Considering QE has been a complete bust, perhaps you'd like to explain your comment?


    In what way has "QE been a complete bust"? 

  • Reply 99 of 116
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    Really?  

    Here are 1-year interest rates during the year of some key recent bubbles (interest rate in the year prior in brackets):
    1987 (Black Monday): 6.8% (6.5%)
    2000 (Dotcom bubble): 6.1% (5.1%)
    2007 (Financial Crisis/Mortgage Bubble): 4.5% (4.9%)

    And here are the interest rates since the last crisis:
    2011: 0.18%
    2012: 0.17%
    2013: 0.13%
    Nov 2014: 0.10%

    I am sure if you kept saying 'crisis' long enough, you'll be right some day. But so far, the record of the cassandras on this is pretty bad, I'd say. It's not a good idea to substitute 'I have a feeling' for actual data.

    We are of course coming out of an asset crash caused by previously loose policy. Lowering interest rates temporarily in those situations makes sense and I support it until now.

    What you are ( no doubt deliberately) missing in the 2008 financial crisis - which is the real big one ( the other two did no or limited economic damage) was the low rates prior to 2007-2008.

    http://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/FedFundsRate10YearHistory.png

    Pretty much nobody denies these extremely low rates caused a housing and asset bubble. Which burst after interest rates increased but the bubble was caused by the low interest rates. That's pretty standard economics.

    Edit:

    Those rates are nominal as far as I know which means that a few years of negative real interest rates caused the problems of 2008.

    And don't argue either that it was interest rate increases that caused the bust - that's like saying that sobriety after alcoholic drinks causes hangovers so best keep drinking.
  • Reply 100 of 116
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    And of course the housing crisis in Europe was caused by loose policy in Europe post 2001/2 until it crashed. Again no economist denies this. Loose monetary policy forces cash out of low interest deposit and saving accounts into assets, and increases consumer loans and mortgage drawdowns.

    http://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/blog-uploads/2009/05/ecb-irates.gif
Sign In or Register to comment.