I think Huberty's prediction of 30 million units solid in the first year is a bit optimistic. I have no doubt that the watch will do well in its first quarter or two. But once the built-in market of early adopters is exhausted, I see sales falling dramatically. I personally don't understand the wearables market. It's pretty clear that consumers aren't really interested in wearables on a large scale. Apple needs the watch to create a whole new tentpole for them if it is to be deemed successful. I don't see that happening.
I also think a lot of people simply don't wear watches anymore. I haven't worn one in over a decade, not since I could look at my cell phone for the time. I can't think of anyone in my social circle who wears ones. Walking through a big international airport the other day, I didn't see a lot of watches. Apple is going to have to convince the masses to buy watches again. From what I know of the Apple Watch, I see no compelling reason to buy one. I find all this health data tracking rather narcissistic (unless you have a bonafide medical condition). Who has time to input and/or analyze all this stuff? And why? I think Apple is trying to create a need that simply doesn't exist.
As others have noted, I also think upgradability will be a major issue. If one can upgrade the watch internals, I think it will do better. If one has to buy a new watch every year or two, it will never be more than a niche product. I look forward to learning more about the watch when it's released, but I seriously doubt that I will purchase one. I also look forward to the stock price rising as the watch hype builds so that I can sell before the share price tumbles after it becomes clear that the market wasn't as big as everyone hoped it would be.
I've been on the fence about the Apple Watch but I will likely buy one. When I buy a traditional watch my assumption going in is that the feature set is frozen. If it does everything I want it to do at the time of purchase then all that remains over time is to periodically replace the batteries. I have a Tissot with lots of advanced features and a touch screen and I have to send it in for battery replacement every couple of years. No big deal. So out of the gate the Apple Watch already has a leg up on traditional fixed-feature watches because it will be feature extensible. However, I still expect to replace the battery every couple of years. No big deal.
Apple will most definitely come out with newer and better watch models over time, just as any watch vendor does. The advantage of the Apple Watch is that you'll probably get some new features on your existing watch that don't require upgrading to a new model. At some point a new software feature will require new hardware and that's when you'll be compelled to upgrade to the newer model. I don't see this as being radically different than traditional watches.
With traditional feature laden Casio et al. rubber/plastic watches selling upwards of $250-$300 I don't see the Apple Watch being constrained by its price, at least on the lower two (non gold plated) tiers.
The only thing that concerns me about the Apple Watch is the recharging cycle. Sure, back when I was a kid with a Timex I had to wind it once per day or so. Reliving those days will be a bit of a rub, especially since I want to be able to use the sleep tracking features of the Apple Watch. When do I recharge it? Maybe when I get home from work until bedtime? This will require accommodation. Over time I'm sure Apple will devise mechanisms to prolong battery life including solar cells, energy harvesting, and electromechanical regenerative energy production.
Ultimately it will come down to how well Apple hits the mark with this product. We really won't know until we get our hands on it and integrate it into our daily lives. Bring it on.
I think Huberty's prediction of 30 million units solid in the first year is a bit optimistic. I have no doubt that the watch will do well in its first quarter or two. But once the built-in market of early adopters is exhausted, I see sales falling dramatically. I personally don't understand the wearables market. It's pretty clear that consumers aren't really interested in wearables on a large scale. Apple needs the watch to create a whole new tentpole for them if it is to be deemed successful. I don't see that happening.
I also think a lot of people simply don't wear watches anymore. I haven't worn one in over a decade, not since I could look at my cell phone for the time. I can't think of anyone in my social circle who wears ones. Walking through a big international airport the other day, I didn't see a lot of watches. Apple is going to have to convince the masses to buy watches again. From what I know of the Apple Watch, I see no compelling reason to buy one. I find all this health data tracking rather narcissistic (unless you have a bonafide medical condition). Who has time to input and/or analyze all this stuff? And why? I think Apple is trying to create a need that simply doesn't exist.
As others have noted, I also think upgradability will be a major issue. If one can upgrade the watch internals, I think it will do better. If one has to buy a new watch every year or two, it will never be more than a niche product. I look forward to learning more about the watch when it's released, but I seriously doubt that I will purchase one. I also look forward to the stock price rising as the watch hype builds so that I can sell before the share price tumbles after it becomes clear that the market wasn't as big as everyone hoped it would be.
Personally, I've not worn a watch in many years either and have no desire or reason to restart wearing a watch, even one with greater utility than a "normal" watch can offer. I tend to agree with your assessment. Fortunately, Apple has plenty of money in the bank to experiment and pursue other avenues for growth and innovation, I just don't want them to fail to innovate or rest on their laurels. Down that road lies stagnation and irrelevance.
Ok, maybe 'useless' is to strong a word. It can still tell the time. Of course, without an iPhone the time won't update when you change time zones, or during daylight savings or maintain the time based on cell tower transponders. Basically, the equivalent of a $15 Seiko at that point.
And without the iPhone, no notifications, health data updating, or app interactions. Kind of pointless to buy an Apple Watch without the iPhone. Especially at the cost Apple is charging and only a 24 hour battery.
I'm not sure all that is true. It appears from the WatchSDK, a lot of the app functionality will be in the iPhone, so yes, apps will be very limited. I think synced notifications will appear (but obviously not real time ones.) Pretty sure it will log Health info, but for a snyc iPhone would be required to put that data into a database.
I always put my iPhone on the charger when I'm at home. Generally that's once a day. I don't see the "charge it once a day" being a huge deal. Sure, everyone likes autonymous devices, but I see Watch actually changing how people interact. I think that is the point here. Where do most people spend a lot of time? Work and home. Watch will theoretically connect to any BT4.0 device. I can see Apple building a BT4.0 system into the Airport Extreme, so the Watch, iPhone, AppleTV, iPads, all tie together in such places.
One thing I am very interested in that I don't see much info or discussion about is how long it takes to charge. If Apple works some magic, and that thing can go from 0->100% in 5 minutes, I think the issue is minimal.
How people interact with the Watch will be really interesting to see. For example - I laugh when I see people out on a date or casual dinner with friends, and they are all staring at their phones. How will that change with Apple Watch? People decry spending money on a device simply to avoid taking a phone out of their pocket, but I've noticed that many females don't always wear clothing with pockets, preferring to use a purse, or leave their phone in a coat pocket. (And here's an app idea: make a Watch "Bump" app, where not only can Apple Watch people "bump" their Watches to exchange information, but to do so in a way that sends a notification silencer for a set period to both Watches. Friends meet up, bump watches, and thereby agree to stop looking at them for an hour.)
As to cost, it shocks me how much people are willing to pay for a simple iPhone case, or even more for one with a supplemental battery. $350 for a Watch? Easy. Millions will buy them.
Comments
You're a prophet and you didn't know it.
You're a prophet and you didn't know it.
I don't think prophecy has anything to do with stating the obvious, Benjamin.
Nothing is real, until an investment firm decides its to their advantage - to say its real.
I think Huberty's prediction of 30 million units solid in the first year is a bit optimistic. I have no doubt that the watch will do well in its first quarter or two. But once the built-in market of early adopters is exhausted, I see sales falling dramatically. I personally don't understand the wearables market. It's pretty clear that consumers aren't really interested in wearables on a large scale. Apple needs the watch to create a whole new tentpole for them if it is to be deemed successful. I don't see that happening.
I also think a lot of people simply don't wear watches anymore. I haven't worn one in over a decade, not since I could look at my cell phone for the time. I can't think of anyone in my social circle who wears ones. Walking through a big international airport the other day, I didn't see a lot of watches. Apple is going to have to convince the masses to buy watches again. From what I know of the Apple Watch, I see no compelling reason to buy one. I find all this health data tracking rather narcissistic (unless you have a bonafide medical condition). Who has time to input and/or analyze all this stuff? And why? I think Apple is trying to create a need that simply doesn't exist.
As others have noted, I also think upgradability will be a major issue. If one can upgrade the watch internals, I think it will do better. If one has to buy a new watch every year or two, it will never be more than a niche product. I look forward to learning more about the watch when it's released, but I seriously doubt that I will purchase one. I also look forward to the stock price rising as the watch hype builds so that I can sell before the share price tumbles after it becomes clear that the market wasn't as big as everyone hoped it would be.
I've been on the fence about the Apple Watch but I will likely buy one. When I buy a traditional watch my assumption going in is that the feature set is frozen. If it does everything I want it to do at the time of purchase then all that remains over time is to periodically replace the batteries. I have a Tissot with lots of advanced features and a touch screen and I have to send it in for battery replacement every couple of years. No big deal. So out of the gate the Apple Watch already has a leg up on traditional fixed-feature watches because it will be feature extensible. However, I still expect to replace the battery every couple of years. No big deal.
Apple will most definitely come out with newer and better watch models over time, just as any watch vendor does. The advantage of the Apple Watch is that you'll probably get some new features on your existing watch that don't require upgrading to a new model. At some point a new software feature will require new hardware and that's when you'll be compelled to upgrade to the newer model. I don't see this as being radically different than traditional watches.
With traditional feature laden Casio et al. rubber/plastic watches selling upwards of $250-$300 I don't see the Apple Watch being constrained by its price, at least on the lower two (non gold plated) tiers.
The only thing that concerns me about the Apple Watch is the recharging cycle. Sure, back when I was a kid with a Timex I had to wind it once per day or so. Reliving those days will be a bit of a rub, especially since I want to be able to use the sleep tracking features of the Apple Watch. When do I recharge it? Maybe when I get home from work until bedtime? This will require accommodation. Over time I'm sure Apple will devise mechanisms to prolong battery life including solar cells, energy harvesting, and electromechanical regenerative energy production.
Ultimately it will come down to how well Apple hits the mark with this product. We really won't know until we get our hands on it and integrate it into our daily lives. Bring it on.
Personally, I've not worn a watch in many years either and have no desire or reason to restart wearing a watch, even one with greater utility than a "normal" watch can offer. I tend to agree with your assessment. Fortunately, Apple has plenty of money in the bank to experiment and pursue other avenues for growth and innovation, I just don't want them to fail to innovate or rest on their laurels. Down that road lies stagnation and irrelevance.
Ok, maybe 'useless' is to strong a word. It can still tell the time. Of course, without an iPhone the time won't update when you change time zones, or during daylight savings or maintain the time based on cell tower transponders. Basically, the equivalent of a $15 Seiko at that point.
And without the iPhone, no notifications, health data updating, or app interactions. Kind of pointless to buy an Apple Watch without the iPhone. Especially at the cost Apple is charging and only a 24 hour battery.
I'm not sure all that is true. It appears from the WatchSDK, a lot of the app functionality will be in the iPhone, so yes, apps will be very limited. I think synced notifications will appear (but obviously not real time ones.) Pretty sure it will log Health info, but for a snyc iPhone would be required to put that data into a database.
I always put my iPhone on the charger when I'm at home. Generally that's once a day. I don't see the "charge it once a day" being a huge deal. Sure, everyone likes autonymous devices, but I see Watch actually changing how people interact. I think that is the point here. Where do most people spend a lot of time? Work and home. Watch will theoretically connect to any BT4.0 device. I can see Apple building a BT4.0 system into the Airport Extreme, so the Watch, iPhone, AppleTV, iPads, all tie together in such places.
One thing I am very interested in that I don't see much info or discussion about is how long it takes to charge. If Apple works some magic, and that thing can go from 0->100% in 5 minutes, I think the issue is minimal.
How people interact with the Watch will be really interesting to see. For example - I laugh when I see people out on a date or casual dinner with friends, and they are all staring at their phones. How will that change with Apple Watch? People decry spending money on a device simply to avoid taking a phone out of their pocket, but I've noticed that many females don't always wear clothing with pockets, preferring to use a purse, or leave their phone in a coat pocket. (And here's an app idea: make a Watch "Bump" app, where not only can Apple Watch people "bump" their Watches to exchange information, but to do so in a way that sends a notification silencer for a set period to both Watches. Friends meet up, bump watches, and thereby agree to stop looking at them for an hour.)
As to cost, it shocks me how much people are willing to pay for a simple iPhone case, or even more for one with a supplemental battery. $350 for a Watch? Easy. Millions will buy them.