Apple could sell record 67M iPhones in December quarter, survey suggests

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited June 2015
If Apple can build enough units to satisfy consumer demand, it could sell as many as 67 million iPhones this quarter, crushing the company's previous all-time sales record, according to a new survey conducted by Morgan Stanley.




The investment firm's AlphaWise Smartphone Tracker compiles sell-through data using Web search analysis, and its latest calculations peg iPhone demand for the quarter at 67 million units. That's ahead of analyst Katy Huberty's projection of 62 million iPhone units for the quarter, as well as Wall Street sell-side consensus of about 63 million units.

Morgan Stanley Asia tech analyst Jasmine Lu believes Apple's supply chain may build between 65 million and 70 million iPhone units within the December quarter, suggesting Apple could achieve those lofty numbers.

To put it in perspective, Apple's previous all-time record came in the holiday 2013 quarter, when the company shipped 51 million iPhones, on its way to $13.1 billion in profit.

Sales of 67 million iPhones would well exceed not only Apple's previous record, but also market expectations. Huberty said Friday that Apple's supply chain projections also bode well for Apple's March quarter, as any channel inventory fill would need to be achieved beyond the December quarter.

"Apple has said they plan to increase iPhone channel inventory from a target range of 4-6 weeks to 5-7 weeks, and that the company was below the 4-6 week range entering the December quarter," Huberty wrote. "We estimate a two-week channel inventory replenish could add about 7M units on top of end demand."

iPhones 2014


Regionally, Morgan Stanley's data shows that U.S. demand for the iPhone is tracking in-line with overall global trends. But in China, consumer demand for the new iPhones is tracking nearly three times greater than global year over year growth.

Huberty also noted that Brazil is tracking significantly above global trends since the new iPhones debuted there on Nov. 14. But demand in France and Japan are somewhat lacking, which may be partially attributed to factors outside of Apple's control -- specifically, an increase in consumption tax in Japan, as well as regulators preventing certain carrier promotions.

Morgan Stanley has maintained its "overweight" rating on AAPL stock with a price target of $126.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 24
    Go Apple! ?(^o^)?
  • Reply 2 of 24
    I feel a blowout quarter in my bones...so many of my friends, family and acquitances are buying iPhone 6 & 6+. I am seeing previous android owners now carrying iPhones. With APPL is closing the gap as well as they have on shipping/delivery it is going to be record-breaking. The only disappointments may be Japan & Russia..

    This recent APPL 10 point selloff was "Ship of Fools" stuff.
  • Reply 3 of 24
    mpantonempantone Posts: 1,375member
  • Reply 4 of 24
    And Katy Huberty has been so accurate in the past... What could possibly go wrong? /s
  • Reply 5 of 24

    for the first time, my corporate procurement is purchasing iPhones as their std in house phone.   I'm now the proud carrier of a personal iPhone6, and a corporate 5s, both bought this quarter  #DeepBigFullPocketsofiPhone

  • Reply 6 of 24
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,684member
    Pump and dump. 60MM is reachable. Not sure about anything higher.
  • Reply 7 of 24

    67 million, 70 million, 75 million?  Whatever the amount is, it's probably not going to be enough to satisfy Wall Street.  Instead of the positive, they're going to focus on the lost iPad sales.  Apple is making far more money from selling the iPhone 6 Plus than it would if it sold iPads, but that isn't the point, is it.  All these analysts are going to do is try and declare the iPad some dead end product that isn't going to help Apple reach some projected sales number some greedy investors had in their heads.  Blowout quarter or not, I doubt it's going to move Apple's share price very much and it's certainly going to set Wall Street for a bigger disappointment for the March quarter.  I'm not sure how any company is supposed to constantly move high-priced products in high quantity the entire year 'round.  I don't think it's even close to being possible on the scale Apple is doing.  It's relatively unprecedented.  Even through this entire period when Apple is supposedly selling iPhones in huge amounts, the P/E has never once exceeded Microsoft's P/E.  Wall Street still won't give Apple a premium higher than Microsoft.  There's no metric I can see that should give Microsoft the edge over Apple.

     

    Well, let's just see this quarter ending what happens, and Apple would be hard-pressed to do much better than they did this quarter but Wall Street still has its doubts.  Price targets keep rising but Apple, as usual, isn't moving in step.  It's hard to tell if Apple will actually have a blowout quarter but I'm hoping for the best in terms of an expanding P/E.  Apple Pay and the Apple/IBM corporate deal should give Apple a nice solid position far away from Doomsville.

  • Reply 8 of 24
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Steffen Jobbs View Post

     

    67 million, 70 million, 75 million?  Whatever the amount is, it's probably not going to be enough to satisfy Wall Street.  Instead of the positive, they're going to focus on the lost iPad sales.  Apple is making far more money from selling the iPhone 6 Plus than it would if it sold iPads, but that isn't the point, is it.  All these analysts are going to do is try and declare the iPad some dead end product that isn't going to help Apple reach some projected sales number some greedy investors had in their heads.  Blowout quarter or not, I doubt it's going to move Apple's share price very much and it's certainly going to set Wall Street for a bigger disappointment for the March quarter.  I'm not sure how any company is supposed to constantly move high-priced products in high quantity the entire year 'round.  I don't think it's even close to being possible on the scale Apple is doing.  It's relatively unprecedented.  Even through this entire period when Apple is supposedly selling iPhones in huge amounts, the P/E has never once exceeded Microsoft's P/E.  Wall Street still won't give Apple a premium higher than Microsoft.  There's no metric I can see that should give Microsoft the edge over Apple.

     

    Well, let's just see this quarter ending what happens, and Apple would be hard-pressed to do much better than they did this quarter but Wall Street still has its doubts.  Price targets keep rising but Apple, as usual, isn't moving in step.  It's hard to tell if Apple will actually have a blowout quarter but I'm hoping for the best in terms of an expanding P/E.  Apple Pay and the Apple/IBM corporate deal should give Apple a nice solid position far away from Doomsville.




    Not to mention the iPad is still insanely profitable, and no one had any clue how it was going to sell.

     

    The day we see a plateauing in iPhone sales, though...buckle up. :rolleyes:

  • Reply 9 of 24
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,283member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by TheWhiteFalcon View Post

     



    Not to mention the iPad is still insanely profitable, and no one had any clue how it was going to sell.

     

    The day we see a plateauing in iPhone sales, though...buckle up. :rolleyes:




    The Eye-Watch will save us.

  • Reply 10 of 24
    I expect really good margins this quarter, which would be hard for even Wall Street to ignore. The should sell tons of phones, with higher ASPs than usual, and the margins on iPads should be better than they have been in quarters past, too, I think. The margins on the iPads were pretty low when they started out, but I think they have been creeping up.

    I think the outlook for next quarter should be strong too, given the growth in China (and upcoming Chinese New Year).
  • Reply 11 of 24
    asdasd wrote: »

    The Eye-Watch will save us.

    My money's on the Apple Hat.
  • Reply 12 of 24

    It is just another attempt by wall street to pump the number to unachievable levels so the stock rises going into then quarterly number announcements and these company can also short it knowing full well apple will not hit these numbers and all right after apple announces saying they exceed their numbers but missed the market numbers, causing the stock to fall. They will sell going into the numbers and catch the upswing and then collect on the shorts from the same people they sold right before the announcements 

  • Reply 13 of 24
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,283member
    maestro64 wrote: »
    It is just another attempt by wall street to pump the number to unachievable levels so the stock rises going into then quarterly number announcements and these company can also short it knowing full well apple will not hit these numbers and all right after apple announces saying they exceed their numbers but missed the market numbers, causing the stock to fall. They will sell going into the numbers and catch the upswing and then collect on the shorts from the same people they sold right before the announcements 

    Theres a graph with this piece which disproves all that.
  • Reply 14 of 24
    apple ][apple ][ Posts: 8,587member

    Go for it! I want to see an amazing recording breaking quarter, the likes of which has never been seen before!

     

    They just need to keep the production up! Work those Chinese workers extra hard! Go ahead, pay them some overtime, I'm ok with that, but make sure that nobody is slacking. We need production to be at the absolute max.

  • Reply 15 of 24
    It seems almost entirely immaterial to ask whether apple itself is capable of fulfilling the high demand of it's product. the demand fulfillment depends entirely on how hard contract manufacturers can push their laborers to for higher production capacity. Apple actually manufactures nothing. And the same thing can be said about any American electronics marketing company.
  • Reply 16 of 24
    It seems almost entirely immaterial to ask whether apple itself is capable of fulfilling the high demand of it's product. the demand fulfillment depends entirely on how hard contract manufacturers can push their laborers to for higher production capacity.

    Agreed. You and I know how modern electronics products get made these days. The average consumer may not.

    Apple actually manufactures nothing. And the same thing can be said about any American electronics marketing company.

    Now wait a minute. It doesn't make sense to single-out Apple and other American companies to say they don't manufacturer anything.

    MOST companies don't manufacture anything themselves either. Foxconn and Pegatron do.

    And it's not only for American companies... Foxconn assembles stuff for Taiwanese and Japanese companies too.
  • Reply 17 of 24
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post

     


    OK. I give up.

    How is it that this report is able to graph "actual" global shipments for Q4 2014 if they have yet to be reported?

    And if these global shipment numbers for Q4 2014 are already known, who needs a survey to estimate them?

    Our fourth grade math teachers always told us that graphs are meaningless without correct labeling.

    "Survey says, . . . "

  • Reply 18 of 24
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by jonaspeter1 View Post



    Apple actually manufactures nothing. And the same thing can be said about any American electronics marketing company.

    If you want to get technical, hardly anybody "manufactures" anything anymore, since few companies start with raw materials and produce finished products from them. But in your broader definition of manufacturing, Apple does, in fact, manufacture some things, like the MacPro, for instance. And if you use the 21st century notion of "manufacturing," Apple manufactures all of their products.

  • Reply 19 of 24
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,283member
    desuserign wrote: »
    OK. I give up.
    How is it that this report is able to graph "actual" global shipments for Q4 2014 if they have yet to be reported?
    And if these global shipment numbers for Q4 2014 are already known, who needs a survey to estimate them?
    Our fourth grade math teachers always told us that graphs are meaningless without correct labeling.
    "Survey says, . . . "

    Ha! That's a good point. That graph has to be from the future.
  • Reply 20 of 24
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by asdasd View Post





    Ha! That's a good point. That graph has to be from the future.

     

    Financials for Q4 2014 HAVE been reported Think October 1 is the end of that quarter.

    http://www.zdnet.com/article/apple-q4-2014-hardware-sales-iphone-strong-and-strongest-ever-mac-quarterly-sales/

    Q1 2015 for Apple is mostly in late 2014.. (yes, makes little sense but hey!)

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