KGI: iPhone sales forecast at 73M for Q4 ahead of Apple Watch debut in March, 12" MacBook Air in Q1

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Comments

  • Reply 21 of 66
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    pfisher wrote: »
    I believe it wasn't too long ago that Apple didn't sell more than a million Macs a year. 

    Then it was 2 million a year.

    Then 2 million a quarter.

    Now we might soon see 2 million Macs a month.

    No one talks about this. It's all about the phone.

    Oh, yeah, Apple stocks could fall because Apple is too dependent on iPhone for sales. That's what some people think.

    It was a million a quarter. Nevertheless your point stands and they are now selling 50% more per Q.

    If this momentum continues Mac sales will exceed iPads.
  • Reply 22 of 66
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,054member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mstone View Post

    iPad just isn't good enough to replace a MacBook, but I still carry both whenever I travel. I'm not sure why I bother with the iPad. 

    Instant ON: that's an advantage of iPad over MacBook. "Yeah, go check the address of that restaurant, let's go....."..."Oh wait, let me turn on and log in my MacBook first"...sure. 

  • Reply 23 of 66
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by fallenjt View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mstone View Post

    iPad just isn't good enough to replace a MacBook, but I still carry both whenever I travel. I'm not sure why I bother with the iPad. 

    Instant ON: that's an advantage of iPad over MacBook. "Yeah, go check the address of that restaurant, let's go....."..."Oh wait, let me turn on and log in my MacBook first"...sure. 


    I did mention that I have an iPhone which works just fine for that scenario and by the way other than the few seconds involved with removing my MBP from the briefcase it is almost instant on with SSD, Also not everyone has cellular iPads, I do but whatever

  • Reply 24 of 66
    smalmsmalm Posts: 677member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by island hermit View Post

     

    I would think that an analyst would talk in terms of fiscal quarters and not in annual quarters.




    And we should stop using those stupid month names.

    Much better to use Apple's 4th fiscal month, Apple's 5th fiscal month, and so on... 

  • Reply 25 of 66
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    solipsismy wrote: »
    1) I don't think Cook gives a rat's ass about appeasing the chuckleheads on Wall Street.

    2) As i've stated and detailed many times, Apple have a long history of giving plenty of notice when it comes to new, major product types. There are surely plenty of reasons why Apple does that, but I believe the primary reason for this and many other of their new product types — especially with their current mindshare — is because they need to get in front of something they will be producing in bulk because they can't reasonably control every potential security breach from all their vendors.

    3) Note it was rumoured the iPhone didn't even have the YouTube player or Corning's alkali-aluminosilicate sheet toughened glass until very close to launch. I doubt there aren't plenty of changes Apple is wanting to help make their launch even better, but like the Apple TV, iPhone, and iPad announcements long before their launch date I have to assume they have likely figured out the major aspects before giving up launch window.

    But Cook said coming in 'early 2015'. Once they get past March people will be making fun of that statement just like they did with Cook's statement that Apple would be releasing new products "across 2014" when in reality we got very little new stuff prior to September. If the watch doesn't ship in March that will be over 6 months between announcement and actually going on sale. That is not typical for Apple which leads me to believe they either announced it sooner than they had planned or they thought they would have battery life issues resolved by now.

    If Cook didn't care about appeasing Wall Street why is Apple paying a dividend and why did they institute the largest stock buyback in corporate history?
  • Reply 26 of 66
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,384member
    73? It was 70 a few days ago, and 67 a few days before that. I expect the "estimates" to reach 100million before the fucking earnings report, just to make sure that whatever Apple announces is "disappointing", even though it's historically epically unmatched.
  • Reply 27 of 66
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,040member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by iRun262 View Post



    I have been thinking about buying a significantly larger amount of stock, but now I wonder if that would be a mistake

    You are better off diversifying your portfolio, especially given the fact that you clearly do not have a good grasp on the overall market based on this one comment.

     

    Frankly, I think you should stick with mutual funds and/or ETFs. You don't seem like the type of person to understand risk assessment very well.

     

    Good luck.

  • Reply 28 of 66
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,040member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    On John Gruber's latest podcast he says he's heard second hand that Apple is still having issues with bugs and battery life with ?Watch. He said he would be surprised if it ships in March. If that's the case it really makes me think they announced it last year to appease Wall Street more than anything. Tim Cook promised new product categories in 2014 and if all Apple announced was ?Pay I think the stock would have taken a beating.



    The stock market doesn't give a shit about John Gruber. They care about how Apple does vis-a-vis Apple's official revenue guidance.

     

    John Gruber doesn't set market expectations. Apple does.

     

    You have learned NOTHING about the stock market over the years of reading this site.

  • Reply 29 of 66
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,384member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by BlueFire1 View Post



    Good article: "Apple Watch: Novelty or Necessity"

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/apple/11365474/Apple-Watch-novelty-or-necessity.html

    Being a decades long Apple fan, I'm not convinced this will be a huge seller. Millennials don't wear watches, and affluent individuals will likely keep their TAG Heuer, Patek Philippe and Rolex watches.

    We'll know soon enough.

     

    So, out of curiosity, what new product category could Apple possibly release that would be a "huge seller" and fall within their core competencies in a reasonable way? Everyone loves bashing the prospects of the Apple Watch, but not ONCE have I heard anyone suggest an alternative product Apple could release that would sell better. Will the Apple Watch sell like iPhones? No. Does it need to? No. It will sell extremely sell (compared to every single other traditional or smartwatch), will grow over time, and will become more and more lucrative and sought after as its software and hardware capabilities increase. It will be a new, and very profitable segment for them, with a whole new app ecosystem. Tied with their other services like Apple Pay, and fitness, will offer some pretty significant benefits to its wearer. 

  • Reply 30 of 66
    mstonemstone Posts: 11,510member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by mpantone View Post

     
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by iRun262 View Post



    I have been thinking about buying a significantly larger amount of stock, but now I wonder if that would be a mistake

    You are better off diversifying your portfolio, especially given the fact that you clearly do not have a good grasp on the overall market based on this one comment.

     

    Frankly, I think you should stick with mutual funds and/or ETFs. You don't seem like the type of person to understand risk assessment very well.

     

    Good luck.


    Always act on advice from  anonymous posters on the Internet regarding investment strategies

  • Reply 31 of 66
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    mpantone wrote: »

    The stock market doesn't give a shit about John Gruber. They care about how Apple does vis-a-vis Apple's official revenue guidance.

    John Gruber doesn't set market expectations. Apple does.

    You have learned NOTHING about the stock market over the years of reading this site.

    I don't know what you're talking about. My point was if the device doesn't launch in Q1 then I question why Apple announced it last September. Apple typically doesn't go that long between product announcement and product ship date. The original iPhone was about six months but that seems to be the exception not the norm.
  • Reply 32 of 66
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by smalM View Post

     



    And we should stop using those stupid month names.

    Much better to use Apple's 4th fiscal month, Apple's 5th fiscal month, and so on... 


     

    ????????????????

  • Reply 33 of 66
    mpantonempantone Posts: 2,040member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    I don't know what you're talking about. 

     

    No one knows what you are talking about.

  • Reply 34 of 66
    mstone wrote: »
    Always act on advice from  anonymous posters on the Internet regarding investment strategies

    I prefer to invest heavily in those unsolicited emails for companies I get on occasion.
  • Reply 35 of 66
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,384member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    I don't know what you're talking about. My point was if the device doesn't launch in Q1 then I question why Apple announced it last September. Apple typically doesn't go that long between product announcement and product ship date. The original iPhone was about six months but that seems to be the exception not the norm.

     

    There's a million reasons Apple announced it at the time that they did, including stemming the sales of other smartwatches in the holiday season and subsequent months, as well as getting developers ready for the product, both in terms of ideas and APIs. In the context of this product, this announcement made sense. Apple shouldn't try to determine what it "typically" does when making decisions, it should make the best decisions for that specific scenario taking all factors into account. The timing seemed and felt right, for a myriad of reasons. It's a new product category, and it made sense for Apple to show it off on their own terms instead of invariably leaking the closer they got to launch. 

  • Reply 36 of 66
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post



    If Cook didn't care about appeasing Wall Street why is Apple paying a dividend and why did they institute the largest stock buyback in corporate history?

     

    Doing what he deems right for Apple shareholders (a.k.a. "the people who own the company he runs") is a very, very different thing than caring what random Wall Street analysts say. None of Apple's recent leadership have ever publically given half a shit what Wall Street analysts spew except for perhaps the CFO on quarterly earnings calls, and even then not many shits were given.

  • Reply 37 of 66
    wizard69wizard69 Posts: 13,377member
    The big reason was or is to cool people's expectations. The speculation was simply getting out of hand, so you deal with that by giving people a peek.

    slurpy wrote: »
    There's a million reasons Apple announced it at the time that they did, including stemming the sales of other smartwatches in the holiday season and subsequent months, as well as getting developers ready for the product, both in terms of ideas and APIs. In the context of this product, this announcement made sense. Apple shouldn't try to determine what it "typically" does when making decisions, it should make the best decisions for that specific scenario taking all factors into account. The timing seemed and felt right, for a myriad of reasons. It's a new product category, and it made sense for Apple to show it off on their own terms instead of invariably leaking the closer they got to launch. 
  • Reply 38 of 66
    asdasd wrote: »
    It was a million a quarter. Nevertheless your point stands and they are now selling 50% more per Q.

    If this momentum continues Mac sales will exceed iPads.

    They now sell well over 5 million Macs per quarter. I wouldn't be surprised if it's 6.5 million this quarter.
  • Reply 39 of 66
    esoomesoom Posts: 155member

    I bought a Pebble Steel a month ago, wearables are going to be massive.

  • Reply 40 of 66
    In response to the absence of a translucent logo, I'm surprised no one has considered that the rumored iPad Pro and '12' Inch MacBook Air could be the same thing... Meaning it could act as a traditional laptop, but can also detach from the keyboard that transforms it into a tablet, similar to the Surface Pro. When you consider this it makes perfectly good sense why they would not put a translucent Apple logo on it, seeing as all current iPad's do not have them. There's your iPad Pro and MacBook Air all-in-one!
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