KGI: iPhone sales forecast at 73M for Q4 ahead of Apple Watch debut in March, 12" MacBook Air in Q1

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  • Reply 61 of 65
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Slurpy View Post

     

     

    So, out of curiosity, what new product category could Apple possibly release that would be a "huge seller" and fall within their core competencies in a reasonable way? Everyone loves bashing the prospects of the Apple Watch, but not ONCE have I heard anyone suggest an alternative product Apple could release that would sell better. Will the Apple Watch sell like iPhones? No. Does it need to? No. It will sell extremely sell (compared to every single other traditional or smartwatch), will grow over time, and will become more and more lucrative and sought after as its software and hardware capabilities increase. It will be a new, and very profitable segment for them, with a whole new app ecosystem. Tied with their other services like Apple Pay, and fitness, will offer some pretty significant benefits to its wearer. 




    Indeed.  Apple is a company that likes to focus on a few product categories, which are generally all related to one another, and part of evolving computing and entertainment (Macs-> iPod/digital media -> iPhone -> Related Apps/Services -> iPad / More Apps -> Apple Pay -> ???).  Wearable technology is certainly a field with great potential, though it is very immature, with biggest issue being battery life.  Wearable technology is something that has a target (over many years) of selling to every person (with a min level of income) over age of say 10, on the planet.  With the same technology - not country specific requirements!  It is overall the same size market as that for mobile phones.

     

    Of course, the first release of ?Watch can only target a small subset, and will have technology-of-the-day shortcomings.  But they have to start when tech is ready for that first release, and then build out from there.  At $350+ per unit (with expected better margins than iPhone), and built in accessory with good margins (bands), this is a product that will immediately produce good profit to Apple's bottom line even if selling "only" in the few millions.  

     

    What is the better target market for a new product category by Apple?  TV's (full fledged units)?  Extremely thin margins, with many different size requirements, and many different country requirements - a very fragmented market.  The screen is the most costly item (unlike in other Apple products where screen is one of many parts of similar cost, or less).  Apple may go there, but expect it to be only with ability to offer a differentiated service by content.  I think it would still be niche, and not add significantly to the Apple's growth.

     

    A refreshed Apple TV in current form factor?  What would make it sell "significantly" more than current product?  Gaming capabilities might add some incremental, as would an "App Store" that allowed more channels.  But at $99/unit, incremental wouldn't move the needle.  Without doing something radical, like buying Nintendo or licensing those games, don't see how Apple TV Gaming would be disruptive.

     

    Seems like the wearables (with a watch being most easily targeted area) has the best long-term prospects to grow Apple.

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  • Reply 62 of 65
    It's good to see the iPhone 6 and 6 doing so well. It'd be funny if Apple beat even these high expectations, though the stock will still drop of course. I'm personally interested in seeing the 12" Air model and how they decide to price it compared to the Air and Pro.
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  • Reply 63 of 65
    bluefire1bluefire1 Posts: 1,318member

    I agree, but I'll stick with the upcoming 12" MacBook Air with Retina Display instead of the iPad.

    The Air and the 6 Plus combined will more than satisfy the needs of most people. 

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  • Reply 64 of 65
    mubailimubaili Posts: 457member
    Wow, Ming-Chi Kuo's number is very close. He does have a good track record.
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