I find it hard to believe that the new Apple Watch will sell well. My main reason is the lack of broad appeal of a smart watch in general, outside of the tech geek sphere. And especially its lack of fashion appeal for women. This does not look like a piece of fashion jewelry in any sense, as much as Apple would like to advertise. With the face of the watch being solid black most of the time, it has no visual appeal to be shown off as an accessory like most watches are. It would make me quite happy to be proven wrong here (I'm a stockholder), but I just don't see it unfortunately. Apple has a solid track record for proving naysayers wrong, so hopefully this is the case once again, but it's hard to make the case as high as 2% let alone 17% sold in 2015. Just not going to happen. Another drawback is the pace at which tech evolves. A regular watch can be used and shown off as a fashion accessory for years, not so for a tech device such as the Apple watch. Lot of money for something that will be outpaced technically in a year or two.
I agree and have been thinking the same thing. I have some hope that Apple has some kind of unique market research and may pull it off despite my/our predictions. I just can't believe they're leaving the Apple TV to languish, there is SO MUCH potential in that market and it's ripe for the taking. Apple could stomp Roku and Amazon TV if they put their attention to making a next gen box and could be in a significant portion of people's living rooms. Even if they are having trouble striking a deal with a cable or satellite provider for a full lineup of channels, there is still a lot more that can be done with what's available now.
I'm not rich, but I can see me buying a new Apple Watch every year if they bring new functionality each year. I think when people get an Apple Watch they're gonna love it and it will become as unthinkable to go out without it as it is their iPhone. I reckon Apple will have a hard time making enough Apple Watches to be honest.
I have a 6+ and am even considering getting it's successor this year and I buy iPhones outright not on a contract.
As for AAPL well my dividends would more than pay for all the Apple kit I buy (if I didn't reinvest them which I do) and I'm in it for the long haul (10 years hence for 25% of my holding and the rest longer term).
point is rich people will not be afraid to buy a new Watch every 2 years.
People need to look at the big picture. Look 20 years in the future. The phone will no longer be the personal computing devices. It will be a wearable. The Watch is the first step to this.
People don't just understand the purpose of a smart watch as an accessory of iPhone with some stand-alone features and NOT a regular watch for telling time. That's why they keep coming back with comments like: who wants to replace a watch every 2 years? The same questions asked in the past for feature phones which people didn't just replace it every 2 years since its functions were just texts and calls. Tech gadgets move with life style and people are willing to replace the old ones for the benefits the new ones have. It's more about the trend. People's usage of the iPhone didn't change since iPhone 4, but why the upgraded to 5 and now 6/6+? I leave that questions to be answered by each, but I would bet that the benefit they got out of a new phone wouldn't be much more than an old one for most people.
I was going to add this in my original post. In looking closely at the back of the Apple watch photos, a thought occurred to me that maybe they had built it in such a way that that round portion of the watch can be taken off in order to update the tech inside. But who knows at this point. Would make sense in order to ease the buying decision for first time owners if they knew that an upgrade path was built into version 1.
As for Sog35's comment, I agree that long term, this wearable technology has the potential to be as big (if not replace) a smart phone. But initially, I think sales will be below expectations until one of the main issues is finally resolved...battery life.
I disagree. People love a product and they're willing to sacrifice for some disadvantages like battery as long as it meets their intended uses. If one wants a smart watch for some notifications, fitness/health tracking purposes and quick responses to messages, phone calls, they would be okay with 19 hrs battery life or charge it daily. Ex: Nissan Leaf, the battery range is s.hit for average 60-65 miles/charge vs Tesla 250-400 miles. Still, people buy Leaf for short commutes to work and willing to accept the short battery life since it meets their intended use.
It would be nice if apple had some real competition to force it to reduce margins and be forced to sell product at lower prices. The net profits are insane. Always have been. Lol.
Apple has plenty of "competition". They just keep falling flat on their face from ineptness and stupidity. You want lower prices and the crap that goes along with it, buy Android. You get what you pay for.
Apple is doing just fine selling their products at prices that have been shown and proven that customers would pay for. Go cry elsewhere.
Apple does not have unlimited resources to develop and market all those products at one time. They won't go into a product half-assed like Google or Samsung.
I would say Apple TV (not TV set) would be this year. It's time to take this bad boy to another level. If Apple can negotiate with TV contents to have something like Sling but better: bundled user selectable channels, shows. Also, get full iOS into TV to expand its capability for games, apps. What about HomeKit in ATV or HomeSecurity System hub with voice activation/commands? Apple have s.hit load of things that they can do with Apple TV and I strongly believe that it will blow all other streaming devices out of water because of its ecosystem.
I want to buy Apple stock and I've never done anything with stocks. Anybody have the easiest way of doing this for a newbie who knows nothing about this stuff but wants to get into it? I read articles but it goes above my head
I want to buy before the iWatch comes out, any new iDevice that comes out always makes Apple stock go up.
Apple does not have unlimited resources to develop and market all those products at one time. They won't go into a product half-assed like Google or Samsung.
AppleCar isn't going to happen. And neither will self-driving cars. Not in my lifetime.
I think one big market is for elderly. Imagine a watch that tracks your heartbeat/vitals and can tell if you got a heart attach or fell down? It could automatically alert the police or family. In a few years the watch will be a stand alone product.
And that there was one of my complaints. It should be a standalone product NOW.
point is rich people will not be afraid to buy a new Watch every 2 years.
People need to look at the big picture. Look 20 years in the future. The phone will no longer be the personal computing devices. It will be a wearable. The Watch is the first step to this.
100k Cars don't get outdated. If anything they increase in value and lust.
I'm thinking the Edition watch would be for millionaires who see $5000 as pocket change(if that's the price).
Sport and others will be for everyone else.
If Apple could make the watch feel like a need then I guess people wouldn't mind spending $3000+ every year or two.
I find it hard to believe that the new Apple Watch will sell well. My main reason is the lack of broad appeal of a smart watch in general, outside of the tech geek sphere. And especially its lack of fashion appeal for women. This does not look like a piece of fashion jewelry in any sense, as much as Apple would like to advertise. With the face of the watch being solid black most of the time, it has no visual appeal to be shown off as an accessory like most watches are. It would make me quite happy to be proven wrong here (I'm a stockholder), but I just don't see it unfortunately. Apple has a solid track record for proving naysayers wrong, so hopefully this is the case once again, but it's hard to make the case as high as 2% let alone 17% sold in 2015. Just not going to happen. Another drawback is the pace at which tech evolves. A regular watch can be used and shown off as a fashion accessory for years, not so for a tech device such as the Apple watch. Lot of money for something that will be outpaced technically in a year or two.
I've thought about this a lot. I want that floating jellyfish watch face displayed all day. THAT would be luxurious and highly fashionable.
Before the ?Watch was released I thought up a pretty cool 3D watch display that could mimic different watch faces and look real.
Imagine having the Mickey Mouse face and then switching to a watch face similar to this;
In 3D. Looking 3D and genuine but it's actually just a screen.
The black face when the watch is asleep is boring BUT it's also really cool looking in another sense, very sleek and mysterious.
Personally I sold calls also - Jan2016 $150 strike for $4 a share.
I'm curious about your call... Is your intent that AAPL will not reach $150 and expire so you can keep that $4? What % of your AAPL did you set aside to sell at the $150?
I'm interesting in how the numbers work. I think AAPL will be worth more in 2016 so that $4 premium per share sounds like you're not getting the better deal if AAPL goes up. Do you think it will be less that $150 when Jan 2016 comes around?
I find it hard to believe that the new Apple Watch will sell well. My main reason is the lack of broad appeal of a smart watch in general, outside of the tech geek sphere. And especially its lack of fashion appeal for women. This does not look like a piece of fashion jewelry in any sense, as much as Apple would like to advertise. With the face of the watch being solid black most of the time, it has no visual appeal to be shown off as an accessory like most watches are. It would make me quite happy to be proven wrong here (I'm a stockholder), but I just don't see it unfortunately. Apple has a solid track record for proving naysayers wrong, so hopefully this is the case once again, but it's hard to make the case as high as 2% let alone 17% sold in 2015. Just not going to happen. Another drawback is the pace at which tech evolves. A regular watch can be used and shown off as a fashion accessory for years, not so for a tech device such as the Apple watch. Lot of money for something that will be outpaced technically in a year or two.
MP3 players weren't considered particularly fashionable until the later iPods came around. Cell phones weren't widely considered fashionable until later iPhones hit the market (although the N95 was pretty eye-catching). The fact that Apple products appear in so many ads, scenes and placements alone tells you that it's considered more "fashionable" than the competition.
Here's another thing. Many women are not interested in just fashion.
Jeez at the rate AAPL is rising, they'll hit 135 next week. I'm going with my own 160 price one year out or even earlier like around Christmas '15. 200/shr in two years if all goes pretty well at Apple and in the global economy.
As for the watch, is suspect that many potential buyers will wait for the second iteration, no matter how good the first is. That would be me; why take a chance?
Well why not, have a little optimism dude. After all $350 is pocket change for myself and many others, I mean $350 is not much above what many shoppers buy at costco on a regular basis
I'm curious about your call... Is your intent that AAPL will not reach $150 and expire so you can keep that $4? What % of your AAPL did you set aside to sell at the $150?
I'm interesting in how the numbers work. I think AAPL will be worth more in 2016 so that $4 premium per share sounds like you're not getting the better deal if AAPL goes up. Do you think it will be less that $150 when Jan 2016 comes around?
I like that trade, its a good way of protecting an investor from a disappointing year, yet high enough so that if it gets called for it make a lot of money . My basis is $58 so I'm prolly gonna hold on for the ride up to 150 possibly more,
Nope. $100k cars depreciate big time. A $100k 911 turbo is worth half that in 4 years. Only a few rare models go up in value.
The tech for a stand alone watch is not ready yet.
Most cars depreciate 50% in 5 years not just the 100K
a 5 year old prius for example still loses 40% its original value, Ford a lot more of course, in fact a new car loses 10% of its value as soon as you drive it out the lot
Watch is the first step to replace the iPhone. Just like the iPod was the first step to replace the laptop/PC for individuals.
In 5-10 years wearables will replace phones for a large chunk of the population.
I think one big market is for elderly. Imagine a watch that tracks your heartbeat/vitals and can tell if you got a heart attach or fell down? It could automatically alert the police or family. In a few years the watch will be a stand alone product.
I strongly disagree that the watch will replace the smartphone. You already see that larger phones have knocked off smaller ones for a large segment of the population. People want to surf the web... can't do that efficiently on a small screened phone, let alone a watch. Forget about it.
People want to have a versatile device with significant screen size. Having said that...
Some people (like ME!) will ALSO want the convenience of the smart watch (and whatever unique apps it brings by being on your wrist and always within eyeshot). But I will not ditch my phone if it means losing a decently sized screen for the web surfing I do.
Smartwatch DOES NOT EQUAL smartphone replacement. It will bring different (and hopefully complementary) capabilities.
Comments
I find it hard to believe that the new Apple Watch will sell well. My main reason is the lack of broad appeal of a smart watch in general, outside of the tech geek sphere. And especially its lack of fashion appeal for women. This does not look like a piece of fashion jewelry in any sense, as much as Apple would like to advertise. With the face of the watch being solid black most of the time, it has no visual appeal to be shown off as an accessory like most watches are. It would make me quite happy to be proven wrong here (I'm a stockholder), but I just don't see it unfortunately. Apple has a solid track record for proving naysayers wrong, so hopefully this is the case once again, but it's hard to make the case as high as 2% let alone 17% sold in 2015. Just not going to happen. Another drawback is the pace at which tech evolves. A regular watch can be used and shown off as a fashion accessory for years, not so for a tech device such as the Apple watch. Lot of money for something that will be outpaced technically in a year or two.
I agree and have been thinking the same thing. I have some hope that Apple has some kind of unique market research and may pull it off despite my/our predictions. I just can't believe they're leaving the Apple TV to languish, there is SO MUCH potential in that market and it's ripe for the taking. Apple could stomp Roku and Amazon TV if they put their attention to making a next gen box and could be in a significant portion of people's living rooms. Even if they are having trouble striking a deal with a cable or satellite provider for a full lineup of channels, there is still a lot more that can be done with what's available now.
I think when people get an Apple Watch they're gonna love it and it will become as unthinkable to go out without it as it is their iPhone.
I reckon Apple will have a hard time making enough Apple Watches to be honest.
I have a 6+ and am even considering getting it's successor this year and I buy iPhones outright not on a contract.
As for AAPL well my dividends would more than pay for all the Apple kit I buy (if I didn't reinvest them which I do) and I'm in it for the long haul (10 years hence for 25% of my holding and the rest longer term).
I'm not rich, but I can see me buying a new Apple Watch every year if they bring new functionality each year.
Seriously?
Not rich but would buy a new watch every year?
Come on.
I'd be delighted if they sold that many or more, though I think they won't.
same thing could be said for $100k cars.
point is rich people will not be afraid to buy a new Watch every 2 years.
People need to look at the big picture. Look 20 years in the future. The phone will no longer be the personal computing devices. It will be a wearable. The Watch is the first step to this.
People don't just understand the purpose of a smart watch as an accessory of iPhone with some stand-alone features and NOT a regular watch for telling time. That's why they keep coming back with comments like: who wants to replace a watch every 2 years? The same questions asked in the past for feature phones which people didn't just replace it every 2 years since its functions were just texts and calls. Tech gadgets move with life style and people are willing to replace the old ones for the benefits the new ones have. It's more about the trend. People's usage of the iPhone didn't change since iPhone 4, but why the upgraded to 5 and now 6/6+? I leave that questions to be answered by each, but I would bet that the benefit they got out of a new phone wouldn't be much more than an old one for most people.
I was going to add this in my original post. In looking closely at the back of the Apple watch photos, a thought occurred to me that maybe they had built it in such a way that that round portion of the watch can be taken off in order to update the tech inside. But who knows at this point. Would make sense in order to ease the buying decision for first time owners if they knew that an upgrade path was built into version 1.
As for Sog35's comment, I agree that long term, this wearable technology has the potential to be as big (if not replace) a smart phone. But initially, I think sales will be below expectations until one of the main issues is finally resolved...battery life.
I disagree. People love a product and they're willing to sacrifice for some disadvantages like battery as long as it meets their intended uses. If one wants a smart watch for some notifications, fitness/health tracking purposes and quick responses to messages, phone calls, they would be okay with 19 hrs battery life or charge it daily. Ex: Nissan Leaf, the battery range is s.hit for average 60-65 miles/charge vs Tesla 250-400 miles. Still, people buy Leaf for short commutes to work and willing to accept the short battery life since it meets their intended use.
It would be nice if apple had some real competition to force it to reduce margins and be forced to sell product at lower prices. The net profits are insane. Always have been. Lol.
Apple has plenty of "competition". They just keep falling flat on their face from ineptness and stupidity. You want lower prices and the crap that goes along with it, buy Android. You get what you pay for.
Apple is doing just fine selling their products at prices that have been shown and proven that customers would pay for. Go cry elsewhere.
One thing at a time.
2014/2015 - large phones, ApplePay
2015/2016 - Watch and larger iPad
2016/2017 - TV, homekit
2020? - AppleCar
Apple does not have unlimited resources to develop and market all those products at one time. They won't go into a product half-assed like Google or Samsung.
I would say Apple TV (not TV set) would be this year. It's time to take this bad boy to another level. If Apple can negotiate with TV contents to have something like Sling but better: bundled user selectable channels, shows. Also, get full iOS into TV to expand its capability for games, apps. What about HomeKit in ATV or HomeSecurity System hub with voice activation/commands? Apple have s.hit load of things that they can do with Apple TV and I strongly believe that it will blow all other streaming devices out of water because of its ecosystem.
I want to buy before the iWatch comes out, any new iDevice that comes out always makes Apple stock go up.
One thing at a time.
2014/2015 - large phones, ApplePay
2015/2016 - Watch and larger iPad
2016/2017 - TV, homekit
2020? - AppleCar
Apple does not have unlimited resources to develop and market all those products at one time. They won't go into a product half-assed like Google or Samsung.
AppleCar isn't going to happen. And neither will self-driving cars. Not in my lifetime.
And that there was one of my complaints. It should be a standalone product NOW.
100k Cars don't get outdated. If anything they increase in value and lust.
I'm thinking the Edition watch would be for millionaires who see $5000 as pocket change(if that's the price).
Sport and others will be for everyone else.
If Apple could make the watch feel like a need then I guess people wouldn't mind spending $3000+ every year or two.
I've thought about this a lot. I want that floating jellyfish watch face displayed all day. THAT would be luxurious and highly fashionable.
Before the ?Watch was released I thought up a pretty cool 3D watch display that could mimic different watch faces and look real.
Imagine having the Mickey Mouse face and then switching to a watch face similar to this;
In 3D. Looking 3D and genuine but it's actually just a screen.
The black face when the watch is asleep is boring BUT it's also really cool looking in another sense, very sleek and mysterious.
Battery life tech really needs to catch up!!!
Seriously?
Not rich but would buy a new watch every year?
Come on.
Very seriously.
$350 /£350 for a watch. Less than a dollar/pound a day (excluding trade-in / re-sale value as noted by Sog35).
A lot of people spend 3 times that each day on the way to work buying a coffee in Costa/Starbucks.
A new Apple Watch each year is much cheaper than a monthly subscription to Sky TV for another example.
And no, I'm not rich (I drive a 12 year old car, have mortgage and work for a living).
I know teachers that earn more than me, and they can afford an Apple Watch each year too if they want one.
They all seem to be able to afford iPhones at least every other year on expensive contracts.
Personally I sold calls also - Jan2016 $150 strike for $4 a share.
I'm curious about your call... Is your intent that AAPL will not reach $150 and expire so you can keep that $4? What % of your AAPL did you set aside to sell at the $150?
I'm interesting in how the numbers work. I think AAPL will be worth more in 2016 so that $4 premium per share sounds like you're not getting the better deal if AAPL goes up. Do you think it will be less that $150 when Jan 2016 comes around?
I find it hard to believe that the new Apple Watch will sell well. My main reason is the lack of broad appeal of a smart watch in general, outside of the tech geek sphere. And especially its lack of fashion appeal for women. This does not look like a piece of fashion jewelry in any sense, as much as Apple would like to advertise. With the face of the watch being solid black most of the time, it has no visual appeal to be shown off as an accessory like most watches are. It would make me quite happy to be proven wrong here (I'm a stockholder), but I just don't see it unfortunately. Apple has a solid track record for proving naysayers wrong, so hopefully this is the case once again, but it's hard to make the case as high as 2% let alone 17% sold in 2015. Just not going to happen. Another drawback is the pace at which tech evolves. A regular watch can be used and shown off as a fashion accessory for years, not so for a tech device such as the Apple watch. Lot of money for something that will be outpaced technically in a year or two.
MP3 players weren't considered particularly fashionable until the later iPods came around. Cell phones weren't widely considered fashionable until later iPhones hit the market (although the N95 was pretty eye-catching).The fact that Apple products appear in so many ads, scenes and placements alone tells you that it's considered more "fashionable" than the competition.
Here's another thing. Many women are not interested in just fashion.
Very seriously.
$350 /£350 for a watch. Less than a dollar/pound a day (excluding trade-in / re-sale value as noted by Sog35).
A lot of people spend 3 times that each day on the way to work buying a coffee in Costa/Starbucks.
A new Apple Watch each year is much cheaper than a monthly subscription to Sky TV for another example.
And no, I'm not rich (I drive a 12 year old car, have mortgage and work for a living).
I know teachers that earn more than me, and they can afford an Apple Watch each year too if they want one.
They all seem to be able to afford iPhones at least every other year on expensive contracts.
Fine. To each his own. I obviously make more than you and I would consider it waste to purchase everything new each year.
As for the watch, is suspect that many potential buyers will wait for the second iteration, no matter how good the first is. That would be me; why take a chance?
Well why not, have a little optimism dude. After all $350 is pocket change for myself and many others, I mean $350 is not much above what many shoppers buy at costco on a regular basis
I'm curious about your call... Is your intent that AAPL will not reach $150 and expire so you can keep that $4? What % of your AAPL did you set aside to sell at the $150?
I'm interesting in how the numbers work. I think AAPL will be worth more in 2016 so that $4 premium per share sounds like you're not getting the better deal if AAPL goes up. Do you think it will be less that $150 when Jan 2016 comes around?
I like that trade, its a good way of protecting an investor from a disappointing year, yet high enough so that if it gets called for it make a lot of money . My basis is $58 so I'm prolly gonna hold on for the ride up to 150 possibly more,Nope. $100k cars depreciate big time. A $100k 911 turbo is worth half that in 4 years. Only a few rare models go up in value.
The tech for a stand alone watch is not ready yet.
Most cars depreciate 50% in 5 years not just the 100Ka 5 year old prius for example still loses 40% its original value, Ford a lot more of course, in fact a new car loses 10% of its value as soon as you drive it out the lot
Watch is the first step to replace the iPhone. Just like the iPod was the first step to replace the laptop/PC for individuals.
In 5-10 years wearables will replace phones for a large chunk of the population.
I think one big market is for elderly. Imagine a watch that tracks your heartbeat/vitals and can tell if you got a heart attach or fell down? It could automatically alert the police or family. In a few years the watch will be a stand alone product.
I strongly disagree that the watch will replace the smartphone. You already see that larger phones have knocked off smaller ones for a large segment of the population. People want to surf the web... can't do that efficiently on a small screened phone, let alone a watch. Forget about it.
People want to have a versatile device with significant screen size. Having said that...
Some people (like ME!) will ALSO want the convenience of the smart watch (and whatever unique apps it brings by being on your wrist and always within eyeshot). But I will not ditch my phone if it means losing a decently sized screen for the web surfing I do.
Smartwatch DOES NOT EQUAL smartphone replacement. It will bring different (and hopefully complementary) capabilities.