I'm curious about your call... Is your intent that AAPL will not reach $150 and expire so you can keep that $4? What % of your AAPL did you set aside to sell at the $150?
I'm interesting in how the numbers work. I think AAPL will be worth more in 2016 so that $4 premium per share sounds like you're not getting the better deal if AAPL goes up. Do you think it will be less that $150 when Jan 2016 comes around?
Guess what - if you buy 1000 BBRY or (sell a monthly $9 PUT 10 contracts) at $9 and ride it up to $11 and back down say just 5 times this year you will make 50% ROI in a year, and if you sell covered calls and time it right, even more. (it doesn't matter what the price of the stock is as long as its below approx $15 and it offers good premium on options and a small spread, the idea is to profit off the rolls as it goes between support and resistance)
Simply can't do that with AAPL easily and you only need $9000 capital to do it with BBRY. do that with say another 5 simlarly priced stocks and you can with a bit of effort make about 30k in one year, To do that with AAPL and that not a sure thing you would need to risk $126K in one stock ie 1000 shares or 10 contracts, never a good idea! and the premium form selling apple options is not great!
I want to buy Apple stock and I've never done anything with stocks. Anybody have the easiest way of doing this for a newbie who knows nothing about this stuff but wants to get into it? I read articles but it goes above my head
I want to buy before the iWatch comes out, any new iDevice that comes out always makes Apple stock go up.
I would recommend ShareBuilder through Costco, only $5.95/trade. Don't go for TradeKing even though it's $1 cheaper/trade but if you don't trade for a year, they will charge you inactivity fee which is $50-$75 I believe. Sharebuilder online takes 5-10 minutes to open an account, then transfer your money from Saving/checking accounts. In 2 days, you're ready to buy stocks. they have both iPad and iPhone apps with a lot of materials for stock trading. Let get into the basis first, then put/call options later.
Watch is the first step to replace the iPhone. Just like the iPod was the first step to replace the laptop/PC for individuals.
In 5-10 years wearables will replace phones for a large chunk of the population.
I think one big market is for elderly. Imagine a watch that tracks your heartbeat/vitals and can tell if you got a heart attach or fell down? It could automatically alert the police or family. In a few years the watch will be a stand alone product.
Well, I would not say 5-10 years, maybe in 20 years. Look at the audio cassette, it took forever to replace it and then DVD which was around 2000 and still in use now after 15 years and I don't see it'll be gone completely at least for another few years.
@sog35 "Rich people" buy exclusive stuff. The watch will only be exclusive for a while. Once every geek and their dog has an Apple watch then these "rich people" will put theirs back in the drawer and move on to the next exclusive thing.
I think 200+M is a good call - as far as anyone can guesstimate this.
I agree with you, though I do think that Apple could sell 20 million in the first year, assuming that lots of the sports watches are sold, and lots of those would have to interface with iPhone 5 and 5s to get to that number.
I have a 5, passing on the 6, but will be looking towards the 6s models for the little refinements that tend to happen with the 's' models.
As for the watch, is suspect that many potential buyers will wait for the second iteration, no matter how good the first is. That would be me; why take a chance?
20M watches sounds plausible. Usually the faithful Apple crowd will buy a first gen product, even if they don't 'need' it. Then there's a whole bunch of people for whom $349 is easily spent out of curiosity. After that wave we get the people who will want it because they heard about how useful it is for their needs. That accumulates easily to 20M. But 17% of a projected 207M iPhones owners gets to 35M, a number I just don't see. Whatever, like [@]Slurpy[/@] already said, it doesn't really matter. It'll be great, be it the first gen or later on. It'll be popular, though likely obviously nothing like the iPhone.
I agree with you that they will likely sell way more than that. Upwards of double that.
I should've been clear: I think they'll sell less than 17% of iPhone6 owners. Note the iPhone number 6 here, which means he is ignoring all iPhone 5/5s/5c owners.
I agree with you, though I do think that Apple could sell 20 million in the first year, assuming that lots of the sports watches are sold, and lots of those would have to interface with iPhone 5 and 5s to get to that number.
I have a 5, passing on the 6, but will be looking towards the 6s models for the little refinements that tend to happen with the 's' models.
As for the watch, is suspect that many potential buyers will wait for the second iteration, no matter how good the first is. That would be me; why take a chance?
But you are waiting for the 6S (and that is not the average person, seeing how many 6 and 6+ are being sold). I don't think as many people will insist on the waiting for the 2nd generation as you think.
It would be nice if apple had some real competition to force it to reduce margins and be forced to sell product at lower prices. The net profits are insane. Always have been. Lol.
That's why AAPL stock is such a good investment...
I want to buy Apple stock and I've never done anything with stocks. Anybody have the easiest way of doing this for a newbie who knows nothing about this stuff but wants to get into it? I read articles but it goes above my head
I want to buy before the iWatch comes out, any new iDevice that comes out always makes Apple stock go up.
Sign up with ETRADE (or something similar...but I love ETRADE). It's easy and you will like it. I just started 6 months ago and I've made a huge gain already.
They charge $7 per trade and that's it. really easy. Even better if you have an office in your area. There are cheaper alternatives but Scottrade's been around for a long time and has actual live support.
If he's just starting off, ETRADE would be better. The cost of a trade is small potatoes compaired to the user interface (where ETRADE is king). The customer support I've received from ETRADE has been fantastic.
Plus, with ETRADE you can get free trades for a limited time just by signing up with a large enough deposit. That is not an option for Scottrade.
extremely conservative braindead call. the stock is almost at their target and Apple Watches will sell much more than their estimate. This again proves Wall St is way behind the curve still on Apple and its grossly undervalued stock price
I believe the Apple Watch will sell 19 million in China alone. This is not geek wear, this is a luxury watch, next gen.
And the hottest brand on the planet. I bet the luxury gold models sell out within 24 hours in China and all the other models will also sell out in the first month. I have heard Apple is making 30-40 million of them. This year they will all sell out and Apple will have to make an addition 5 million gold luxury models to catch up to demand.
Wall St always underestimates AAPL, which keeps the stock price a bargain. Which is why I am up $700,000 this year on paper. The best news is, the price correction from the ridiculous selloff 2 years ago is still not keeping up with real world earnings growth.
I find it hard to believe that the new Apple Watch will sell well. My main reason is the lack of broad appeal of a smart watch in general, outside of the tech geek sphere. And especially its lack of fashion appeal for women. This does not look like a piece of fashion jewelry in any sense, as much as Apple would like to advertise. With the face of the watch being solid black most of the time, it has no visual appeal to be shown off as an accessory like most watches are. It would make me quite happy to be proven wrong here (I'm a stockholder), but I just don't see it unfortunately. Apple has a solid track record for proving naysayers wrong, so hopefully this is the case once again, but it's hard to make the case as high as 2% let alone 17% sold in 2015. Just not going to happen. Another drawback is the pace at which tech evolves. A regular watch can be used and shown off as a fashion accessory for years, not so for a tech device such as the Apple watch. Lot of money for something that will be outpaced technically in a year or two.
I'm worried about this, too. The bulk of the visual look of the device is going to be a blank screen -- probably with fingerprints on it -- almost all of the time. I just don't think it's likely that having a big black square with fingerprints on it on one's wrist is likely to become a fashion must.
In any case, come back and tell me if I turn out to be wrong, but 19m seems preposterously high for 2015. Somebody's setting Apple up for some salable negative headlines with that one.
<div class="quote-container" data-huddler-embed="/t/184784/bmo-raises-apple-target-to-135-predicts-19m-apple-watch-207m-iphone-sales-in-2015/40#post_2676691" data-huddler-embed-placeholder="false"><span>Quote:</span><div class="quote-block">Originally Posted by <strong>PhilBoogie</strong> <a href="/t/184784/bmo-raises-apple-target-to-135-predicts-19m-apple-watch-207m-iphone-sales-in-2015/40#post_2676691"><img src="/img/forum/go_quote.gif" class="inlineimg" alt="View Post"/></a><br/><br/><br />
Even not comparable, I think the 19 million number is too high as well. Android wear <strike>sold</strike> shipped 720,000 last year<br />
<br /> http://www.canalys.com/newsroom/over-720000-android-wear-devices-shipped-2014</div></div><p> </p>;
If history repeats:
Remember the iPod, iPad, iPhone
most of the press solidly predicted those would never sell in quantity
I expect you to eat humble pie ...
I love humble pie! Not sweet, not bitter. It's bitter sweet. And while pundits may have predicted wrong, I did as well with the iPhone; I thought they would sell 12M but it was more like 6M or something.
Comments
I'm curious about your call... Is your intent that AAPL will not reach $150 and expire so you can keep that $4? What % of your AAPL did you set aside to sell at the $150?
I'm interesting in how the numbers work. I think AAPL will be worth more in 2016 so that $4 premium per share sounds like you're not getting the better deal if AAPL goes up. Do you think it will be less that $150 when Jan 2016 comes around?
Guess what - if you buy 1000 BBRY or (sell a monthly $9 PUT 10 contracts) at $9 and ride it up to $11 and back down say just 5 times this year you will make 50% ROI in a year, and if you sell covered calls and time it right, even more. (it doesn't matter what the price of the stock is as long as its below approx $15 and it offers good premium on options and a small spread, the idea is to profit off the rolls as it goes between support and resistance)Simply can't do that with AAPL easily and you only need $9000 capital to do it with BBRY. do that with say another 5 simlarly priced stocks and you can with a bit of effort make about 30k in one year, To do that with AAPL and that not a sure thing you would need to risk $126K in one stock ie 1000 shares or 10 contracts, never a good idea! and the premium form selling apple options is not great!
I want to buy Apple stock and I've never done anything with stocks. Anybody have the easiest way of doing this for a newbie who knows nothing about this stuff but wants to get into it? I read articles but it goes above my head
I want to buy before the iWatch comes out, any new iDevice that comes out always makes Apple stock go up.
I would recommend ShareBuilder through Costco, only $5.95/trade. Don't go for TradeKing even though it's $1 cheaper/trade but if you don't trade for a year, they will charge you inactivity fee which is $50-$75 I believe. Sharebuilder online takes 5-10 minutes to open an account, then transfer your money from Saving/checking accounts. In 2 days, you're ready to buy stocks. they have both iPad and iPhone apps with a lot of materials for stock trading. Let get into the basis first, then put/call options later.
Watch is the first step to replace the iPhone. Just like the iPod was the first step to replace the laptop/PC for individuals.
In 5-10 years wearables will replace phones for a large chunk of the population.
I think one big market is for elderly. Imagine a watch that tracks your heartbeat/vitals and can tell if you got a heart attach or fell down? It could automatically alert the police or family. In a few years the watch will be a stand alone product.
Well, I would not say 5-10 years, maybe in 20 years. Look at the audio cassette, it took forever to replace it and then DVD which was around 2000 and still in use now after 15 years and I don't see it'll be gone completely at least for another few years.
20M watches sounds plausible. Usually the faithful Apple crowd will buy a first gen product, even if they don't 'need' it. Then there's a whole bunch of people for whom $349 is easily spent out of curiosity. After that wave we get the people who will want it because they heard about how useful it is for their needs. That accumulates easily to 20M. But 17% of a projected 207M iPhones owners gets to 35M, a number I just don't see. Whatever, like [@]Slurpy[/@] already said, it doesn't really matter. It'll be great, be it the first gen or later on. It'll be popular, though
likelyobviously nothing like the iPhone.I should've been clear: I think they'll sell less than 17% of iPhone6 owners. Note the iPhone number 6 here, which means he is ignoring all iPhone 5/5s/5c owners.
Rich people will not be buying the Apple Watch. they will buy Rolexes that cost 10 grand or more.
But you are waiting for the 6S (and that is not the average person, seeing how many 6 and 6+ are being sold). I don't think as many people will insist on the waiting for the 2nd generation as you think.
That's why AAPL stock is such a good investment...
Sign up with ETRADE (or something similar...but I love ETRADE). It's easy and you will like it. I just started 6 months ago and I've made a huge gain already.
If he's just starting off, ETRADE would be better. The cost of a trade is small potatoes compaired to the user interface (where ETRADE is king). The customer support I've received from ETRADE has been fantastic.
Plus, with ETRADE you can get free trades for a limited time just by signing up with a large enough deposit. That is not an option for Scottrade.
Note: I don't work for ETRADE.
I believe the Apple Watch will sell 19 million in China alone. This is not geek wear, this is a luxury watch, next gen.
And the hottest brand on the planet. I bet the luxury gold models sell out within 24 hours in China and all the other models will also sell out in the first month. I have heard Apple is making 30-40 million of them. This year they will all sell out and Apple will have to make an addition 5 million gold luxury models to catch up to demand.
Wall St always underestimates AAPL, which keeps the stock price a bargain. Which is why I am up $700,000 this year on paper. The best news is, the price correction from the ridiculous selloff 2 years ago is still not keeping up with real world earnings growth.
I find it hard to believe that the new Apple Watch will sell well. My main reason is the lack of broad appeal of a smart watch in general, outside of the tech geek sphere. And especially its lack of fashion appeal for women. This does not look like a piece of fashion jewelry in any sense, as much as Apple would like to advertise. With the face of the watch being solid black most of the time, it has no visual appeal to be shown off as an accessory like most watches are. It would make me quite happy to be proven wrong here (I'm a stockholder), but I just don't see it unfortunately. Apple has a solid track record for proving naysayers wrong, so hopefully this is the case once again, but it's hard to make the case as high as 2% let alone 17% sold in 2015. Just not going to happen. Another drawback is the pace at which tech evolves. A regular watch can be used and shown off as a fashion accessory for years, not so for a tech device such as the Apple watch. Lot of money for something that will be outpaced technically in a year or two.
I'm worried about this, too. The bulk of the visual look of the device is going to be a blank screen -- probably with fingerprints on it -- almost all of the time. I just don't think it's likely that having a big black square with fingerprints on it on one's wrist is likely to become a fashion must.
In any case, come back and tell me if I turn out to be wrong, but 19m seems preposterously high for 2015. Somebody's setting Apple up for some salable negative headlines with that one.
Even not comparable, I think the 19 million number is too high as well. Android wear
soldshipped 720,000 last yearhttp://www.canalys.com/newsroom/over-720000-android-wear-devices-shipped-2014
Even not comparable, I think the 19 million number is too high as well. Android wear sold shipped 720,000 last year
http://www.canalys.com/newsroom/over-720000-android-wear-devices-shipped-2014
If history repeats:Remember the iPod, iPad, iPhone
most of the press solidly predicted those would never sell in quantity
I expect you to eat humble pie ...
I love humble pie! Not sweet, not bitter. It's bitter sweet. And while pundits may have predicted wrong, I did as well with the iPhone; I thought they would sell 12M but it was more like 6M or something.