When they make an iPhone or other device that only needs to be charged once a week, they might gain some credibility that they can build a car that doesn't need to be charged after every short trip. And rumor has it that the Apple Watch might not even last a day without needing to be recharged.
I'm with Benjamin Frost on this one. Electric cars as a mass market device don't work with the tech we have available today. And I'm not sure how, as great a company as Apple is, they can accomplish in the next four years what Tesla hasn't yet been able to accomplish. If Apple wants to sell an elite car, as Tesla does, to the 1% who can not only afford the car, but afford the charging infrastructure and the cost of electricity in their home, they can do that, but then very few people will own the car. I've been to a Tesla showroom, but even in NYC, even in areas where apartments sell for many $millions or rent for $5000 a month, I have never seen a Tesla on the road and I have seen a Rolls parked on the street near my apartment in Queens (of all places).
In Tesla showrooms, they have an interactive display to supposedly show you how much you can save by not buying gasoline compared to the cost of electricity, but they don't fully load the electricity cost, so it's totally phony. In NYC, the fully loaded cost of electricity is about 34 cents per KW/hour.
The other issue is I'm not sure electric cars are the answer to environmental issues. It just changes where the fossil fuels are used. In NYC, Con Ed burns fossil fuels to produce electricity. So if everyone had electric cars, Con Ed would have to burn a lot more fossil fuel. In addition, if electric cars were ever to become immensely popular, battery disposal is going to become a huge problem. My personal opinion is that the car of the future is going to be a hybrid using multiple technologies.
And for those who keep stating, "Tesla is doing great", by what standardrerie are you evaluating them? They have a car that only the super-rich can afford and they lose money on every car they sell. I think their cars are quite beautiful and I appreciate their objectives, but if Wall Street ever gets impatient for profits, it's all over for them. My understanding is that Tesla is on track to sell about 30,000 cars a year worldwide. That's actually not very many, although perhaps impressive for a car that sells for $70,000 and up.
I own two EV's and know that most of your posts is simply wrong. I have a Tesla Model S and a 1974 V thing that I converted to battery electric drive.
Tesla produced 35,000 cars last year and are on target for 50,000 this year and 500,000 for 2020....
They average about 28% margin on the cars they produce right now.
Batteries are easy to recycle so not worries there. In fact Tesla is building a recycling stream into it's new 5 billion dollar battery factory it is building. Lead acid batteries are HIGHLY toxic and are almost 100% recycled today. Lithium ION batteries are NOT toxic and contain valuable metals that people WANT to recover...
Even if EV are powered by coal fired power plants (Only 36% of the US grid now) they are still cleaner that almost all ICE cars. The reason is simple. It is a very dirty business to refine oil into gasoline. You burn very dirty left overs of the crude to create the steam to refine gas. In fact there is enough pollution released into the air from the refining of one gallon of gas to provide enough electricity from a power plant to dive that EV over 50 miles and that DOES NOT include the pollution for Burning the gas in the car...
I have made many road trips in my Model S using the FREE supercharging network and see it as the future. A 15-20 minute stop every 2-3 hr of drive is just not that big of a deal considering I NEVER hare to go out of my way to visit a gas station or stand in the cold/heat to refuel.
...and a 1974 V thing that I converted to battery electric drive.
Could you tell us more about this VW Thing you converted to electric? Did you use a kit? Did you use a website? Have you done this sort of conversation before? What is your background prior to the conversation? Did you take pics and/or detail the steps you took? Do you have any advice? Did I miss anything?
Most gas cars regularly get 450 miles to a tank today. Many get 550 miles.
Electric cars are nowhere. If Apple were to succeed with one, they would have to use transformative technology that doesn't currently exist. Even if they found it, it would still take decades for electric vehicles to gain even 20% share of the market.
And for Marvin, who wrote the comment that cars are only good for 80,000 miles: no. Cars are so well-made these days that they can easily go for 200,000 miles and more.
As zoetmb said, hybrid seems the most promising solution.
As a Tesla Model S owner and the owner of another converted BEV (1974 VW Thing), I can say with 100% certainty, you have NO IDEA what you are talking about...!!!
The batteries that Tesla is using in the Model S have a life expectancy of approximately 2000 deep cycles. That is assuming that you abuse the cells and charge them to 100% all of the time. So, 2000 x 260 miles = 520,000 miles. Give that there is exactly 5 moving parts in the entire electric drive train and the fact that the car is all aluminum, it is likely that these cars will need very little maintenance for several hundred thousand miles.
However, since people RARELY drive over 40-50 miles in a day, most owners (Like myself) use the 20% 80% rule. We charge the car to 80% capacity and do not discharge it below 20%. This yields 160 miles which is fine for most daily use. When you do this, the pack life is greatly extended to about 5000 cycles. So 5000 * 160 miles = 800,000 miles...
On tripsI use the quickly expanding supercharging network which adds about 170 miles of range in 20 minutes. So if you charge to full capacity right before a long trip, you get a solid 260 miles of range. If you stop for 1hr at a supercharger you get another full 260 miles of range. That is over 500 miles for the time it takes to eat lunch and use the bathroom. Long Haul truck driver average about 500-600 miles a day for comparison. The range is just NOT the big deal you are desperately (for what ever reason) trying to make it out to be...
Apart that it takes less than five minutes to refuel. So yeah, 20 minutes is an eternity. Anyway, I think charging is more than twice that, even just to get to 80%. Charging completely still takes hours.
There's a long, long way to go before charging times become acceptable to the mass market.
Lets look at the Reality vs you opinion....
Lets have a realist look at how it really works out. Lets assume that a person makes 5 trips a year that is longer than the 250 mile ranger of the Model S.
ICE: Most people fill up about 4 times a month. It realistically takes 10-15 minutes of your day to get to the station, fill up, pay and be on your way. To be fair, lets use 10 minutes. So that is 4 stops * 12 months * 10 minutes / 60Min/hr = 8hr of your life lost. You are also at the mercey of the weather during these fill ups. If you go on five 500 mile one way trips a year you will add at least two fuel stops per trip at about 15 minutes each ( a little extra time to use the bathroom, etc each way so that is an additional 5*2*0.25hr = 2.5hr of your life. That is a total of 10.5hr of your life re-ruling. However, you do have to figure in at least three oil changes that either you do of have done each year that the EV does not need. Typically this will consume about an hour of your time to go there and wait for the oil change ( or do it yourself). So now we are up to 13.5hr of your time wasted for the ICE.
Model S: It takes me about 15 seconds to plug in and unplug my model S. So if I do that 50 weeks out of the year 7 days a week. I am at 50 x 7days x 0.5minutes /60 = 3 hr of my life. I could cares less how long it takes to recharge while I sleep. Now on those 5 trips of 500 miles one way I will have to stop and charge (for free at a supercharger) for at least 30 minutes each way. That will take me about 30min * 5 tips * 2stops / 60min/hr = 7hr of my life. That is a total of 10hr of my life spent recharging per year.
So, we are at 13.5hr of you life for the ICE vs about 10hr of your life for the Model S…..
Could you tell us more about this VW Thing you converted to electric? Did you use a kit? Did you use a website? Have you done this sort of conversation before? What is your background prior to the conversation? Did you take pics and/or detail the steps you took? Do you have any advice? Did I miss anything?
You can see everything at: www.EVThing.me
I have restored cars and built hotrods most of my life. I am also both an electrical and Mechannical engineer...
I own two EV's and know that most of your posts is simply wrong. I have a Tesla Model S and a 1974 V thing that I converted to battery electric drive.
Tesla produced 35,000 cars last year and are on target for 50,000 this year and 500,000 for 2020....
They average about 28% margin on the cars they produce right now.
I have made many road trips in my Model S using the FREE supercharging network and see it as the future. a 15-20 minute stop evert 2-3 hr of drive is just not that big of a deal considering I NEVER hare to go out of my way to visit a gas station or stand in the cold/heat to refuel.
Yes, they have a 27.5% gross margin, but they've never shown a profit. In 2014, their net was a $300 million loss. I'm not saying they're never going to be profitable, but it's going to be difficult to accomplish that until they achieve mass and they won't achieve mass with a car that sells for $70K and up. And they're not selling 500K cars within the next four years unless the price comes down to below $50,000 and maybe not even then, unless they create a leasing model.
There are only two superchargers in NYC - one in Manhattan and one near JFK airport. So for most long trips that I would take, I would have to drive at least 45 minutes out of my way to charge the car. A trip that I take frequently - from Queens, NY to near Woodstock, NY (about 125 miles each way) has no supercharger on the route unless I stop in Manhattan first. Going up route 95 to New England, there's two within a few miles of each other between Stamford and Darien. That makes no sense to me - with such a dearth of charging stations, why would they put two so close together. Of course I'm not a customer for the car anyway - no way am I spending $70K on a car.
It looks to me like the Supercharger network is far more advanced on the west coast. There's three on Wilshire Blvd in L.A. just between Route 1 and the 405. Then there's four more around Beverly Hills and several others near Sunset Blvd. I could see people who live in the area being comfortable with that. But all that is only if you're willing to wait for however long it takes to charge the car. I don't see many people being that patient, especially if they have to do it every other day. So they'll eventually get there, but the tech has got a bit to go...personally, I think the range has to be at least 400 miles - 300 miles at the barest minimum and for people who don't have a charger at home or in their garage, it has to charge in less than 10 minutes.
There's another issue and that's if I'm totally wrong and they become incredibly successful, then people are going to find themselves waiting on line at the charging stations. No one is going to put up with that, especially the masters of the universe who can afford such a car.
I have restored cars and built hotrods most of my life. I am also both an electrical and Mechannical engineer...
Thanks! Something like that would be perfect for me in my around town errands and morning trips to the beach to surf, I'm just not sure it's $27k worth of value, although for a project that sounds reasonable.
Yes, they have a 27.5% gross margin, but they've never shown a profit. In 2014, their net was a $300 million loss. I'm not saying they're never going to be profitable, but it's going to be difficult to accomplish that until they achieve mass and they won't achieve mass with a car that sells for $70K and up. And they're not selling 500K cars within the next four years unless the price comes down to below $50,000 and maybe not even then, unless they create a leasing model.
There are only two superchargers in NYC - one in Manhattan and one near JFK airport. So for most long trips that I would take, I would have to drive at least 45 minutes out of my way to charge the car. A trip that I take frequently - from Queens, NY to near Woodstock, NY (about 125 miles each way) has no supercharger on the route unless I stop in Manhattan first. Going up route 95 to New England, there's two within a few miles of each other between Stamford and Darien. That makes no sense to me - with such a dearth of charging stations, why would they put two so close together. Of course I'm not a customer for the car anyway - no way am I spending $70K on a car.
It looks to me like the Supercharger network is far more advanced on the west coast. There's three on Wilshire Blvd in L.A. just between Route 1 and the 405. Then there's four more around Beverly Hills and several others near Sunset Blvd. I could see people who live in the area being comfortable with that. But all that is only if you're willing to wait for however long it takes to charge the car. I don't see many people being that patient, especially if they have to do it every other day. So they'll eventually get there, but the tech has got a bit to go...personally, I think the range has to be at least 400 miles - 300 miles at the barest minimum and for people who don't have a charger at home or in their garage, it has to charge in less than 10 minutes.
There's another issue and that's if I'm totally wrong and they become incredibly successful, then people are going to find themselves waiting on line at the charging stations. No one is going to put up with that, especially the masters of the universe who can afford such a car.
They are not currently GAAP profitable because of there reinvestment on R&D and expanding the supercharging network.
The plan for Tesl is to release a 200 mile EV for $35,000 in the year 2017 or 2018. They are building a 5 billion dollar battery factory now to drive the battery cost down and to have enough supply to make over 500,000 cars a year by 2020.
We do not need near as many supercharges as gas stations simply because more people will charge 95+% of the time at home. It is also fairly easy to install level 2 chargers at destination sites like restaurants, hotels, malls, etc... Most people would not allow gas station to be install at these places. Car spend the vast majority of their life parked. It will require some effort to improve public charging, but as Tesla has show it is not that hard. ONE company has now covered 80% of the US, and well over 90% of Europe and England and is now working on Asia and Australia... Just imaging how fast it will expand as GM, FORD, BMW, PORSCHE, etc get into the game...
We are still at the early stages of BEV adoption, but it will dramatically change in the next few years... Even GM has announced a 200 mile $37,500 BEV that will begin production late next year...
Thanks! Something like that would be perfect for me in my around town errands and morning trips to the beach to surf, I'm just not sure it's $27k worth of value, although for a project that sounds reasonable.
It is a lot of fun. If you are on the west cost and get interested in the Idea, I know the guys at www.EVWest.com. They sell a kit for the VW platform and have a complete bolt on kit for the Bug. It can literally be installed in a long weekend. They are probably the best guys in the business.
I admit that the restoration and conversion was a bit expensive and probably not a good investment, but this is a real Acapulco Edition of the VW Thing. In it's current restored condition they can fetch about $25,000 on eBay. I still have the original engine and could easily convert it back to stock as the car's sheet metal, pan and tranaxle are largely unmodified...
In general it cost about $15K worth of part to do a conversion like this one but I doubt it would even truly make economic sense (restoring classic cars never will)
Most gas cars regularly get 450 miles to a tank today. Many get 550 miles.
Electric cars are nowhere. If Apple were to succeed with one, they would have to use transformative technology that doesn't currently exist. Even if they found it, it would still take decades for electric vehicles to gain even 20% share of the market.
And for Marvin, who wrote the comment that cars are only good for 80,000 miles: no. Cars are so well-made these days that they can easily go for 200,000 miles and more.
As zoetmb said, hybrid seems the most promising solution.
As a Tesla Model S owner and the owner of another converted BEV (1974 VW Thing), I can say with 100% certainty, you have NO IDEA what you are talking about...!!!
The batteries that Tesla is using in the Model S have a life expectancy of approximately 2000 deep cycles. That is assuming that you abuse the cells and charge them to 100% all of the time. So, 2000 x 260 miles = 520,000 miles. Give that there is exactly 5 moving parts in the entire electric drive train and the fact that the car is all aluminum, it is likely that these cars will need very little maintenance for several hundred thousand miles.
However, since people RARELY drive over 40-50 miles in a day, most owners (Like myself) use the 20% 80% rule. We charge the car to 80% capacity and do not discharge it below 20%. This yields 160 miles which is fine for most daily use. When you do this, the pack life is greatly extended to about 5000 cycles. So 5000 * 160 miles = 800,000 miles...
On tripsI use the quickly expanding supercharging network which adds about 170 miles of range in 20 minutes. So if you charge to full capacity right before a long trip, you get a solid 260 miles of range. If you stop for 1hr at a supercharger you get another full 260 miles of range. That is over 500 miles for the time it takes to eat lunch and use the bathroom. Long Haul truck driver average about 500-600 miles a day for comparison. The range is just NOT the big deal you are desperately (for what ever reason) trying to make it out to be...
So batteries don't need replacing for twenty years?
Apart that it takes less than five minutes to refuel. So yeah, 20 minutes is an eternity. Anyway, I think charging is more than twice that, even just to get to 80%. Charging completely still takes hours.
There's a long, long way to go before charging times become acceptable to the mass market.
Lets look at the Reality vs you opinion.... Lets have a realist look at how it really works out. Lets assume that a person makes 5 trips a year that is longer than the 250 mile ranger of the Model S. ICE: Most people fill up about 4 times a month. It realistically takes 10-15 minutes of your day to get to the station, fill up, pay and be on your way. To be fair, lets use 10 minutes. So that is 4 stops * 12 months * 10 minutes / 60Min/hr = 8hr of your life lost. You are also at the mercey of the weather during these fill ups. If you go on five 500 mile one way trips a year you will add at least two fuel stops per trip at about 15 minutes each ( a little extra time to use the bathroom, etc each way so that is an additional 5*2*0.25hr = 2.5hr of your life. That is a total of 10.5hr of your life re-ruling. However, you do have to figure in at least three oil changes that either you do of have done each year that the EV does not need. Typically this will consume about an hour of your time to go there and wait for the oil change ( or do it yourself). So now we are up to 13.5hr of your time wasted for the ICE. Model S: It takes me about 15 seconds to plug in and unplug my model S. So if I do that 50 weeks out of the year 7 days a week. I am at 50 x 7days x 0.5minutes /60 = 3 hr of my life. I could cares less how long it takes to recharge while I sleep. Now on those 5 trips of 500 miles one way I will have to stop and charge (for free at a supercharger) for at least 30 minutes each way. That will take me about 30min * 5 tips * 2stops / 60min/hr = 7hr of my life. That is a total of 10hr of my life spent recharging per year. So, we are at 13.5hr of you life for the ICE vs about 10hr of your life for the Model S…..
One small problem:
Most people can't recharge at home, so they'd have to spend hours hooked up at a petrol station.
So batteries don't need replacing for twenty years?
News to me.
Obviously....
Quote:
Originally Posted by Benjamin Frost
One small problem:
Most people can't recharge at home, so they'd have to spend hours hooked up at a petrol station.
That's one big reason why electric is dead.
All cars must be parked somewhere when not in use. Public charging will have to be part of the solution. About 67% of the people in the US live in houses. So you statement of MOST is simply wrong. We need do need to concentrate on them first obviously.
However when people see the advantage of about 3 cents per mile of fuel for the BEV ( average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents per Kwh) they will want one and demand that apartments and condo owners accommodate them and they will or lose out to the ones that do....
All cars must be parked somewhere when not in use. Public charging will have to be part of the solution. About 67% of the people in the US live in houses. So you statement of MOST is simply wrong. We need do need to concentrate on them first obviously.
However when people see the advantage of about 3 cents per mile of fuel for the BEV ( average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents per Kwh) they will want one and demand that apartments and condo owners accommodate them and they will or lose out to the ones that do....
As more and more people use electric cars, I can see the price of charging at various locations getting more and more expensive. If there is a buck to be made somewhere, it will eventually be exploited. Unless, of course, the advent of the electric vehicle is the harbinger of socialism.
I just realized something about this rumor. It’s the opposite of all the other failed rumors before it.
Rather than some ding-dong screaming about a product that will never happen and gradually petering out about it *coughHDTVcough*, this rumor sets up FIVE YEARS OF LIBEL ahead of time.
In the lead up to 2020, we’ll see increasingly vociferous posts about how the car is coming the car will come the car has to happen Apple will be bankrupted without the car and then when 2020 passes and nothing happens…
I just realized something about this rumor. It’s the opposite of all the other failed rumors before it.
Rather than some ding-dong screaming about a product that will never happen and gradually petering out about it *coughHDTVcough*, this rumor sets up FIVE YEARS OF LIBEL ahead of time.
In the lead up to 2020, we’ll see increasingly vociferous posts about how the car is coming the car will come the car has to happen Apple will be bankrupted without the car and then when 2020 passes and nothing happens…
No one will be punished.
No one will be fired.
No one will be imprisoned for manipulation.
I'm curious... how is the publication of the statement, "Apple is going to make an electric car", a defamation of Apple's character?
It is a lot of fun. If you are on the west cost and get interested in the Idea, I know the guys at www.EVWest.com. They sell a kit for the VW platform and have a complete bolt on kit for the Bug. It can literally be installed in a long weekend. They are probably the best guys in the business.
I admit that the restoration and conversion was a bit expensive and probably not a good investment, but this is a real Acapulco Edition of the VW Thing. In it's current restored condition they can fetch about $25,000 on eBay. I still have the original engine and could easily convert it back to stock as the car's sheet metal, pan and tranaxle are largely unmodified...
In general it cost about $15K worth of part to do a conversion like this one but I doubt it would even truly make economic sense (restoring classic cars never will)
Thanks for that So Cal link. I think I'll go visit those guys some day. In my opinion, it would be worth converting a VW, whether a squareback, bug or Thing, just to keep driving that torsion-bar sprung, 4-wheel-independent, rear-engine experience a bit longer. So yeah, I think it's worth the $$ if you've got it, if only to keep experimenting with the platform. Your videos bear this out.
A lot of people don't realize what a great road car Porsche developed in that original VW chassis, running gear and body configuration. And hats off to Hans Ludwinka of Tatra for the air-cooled, rear-engine-on-a-backbone-frame as well, Porsche's inspiration.
I hope Jony and the engineers at least look into the Porsche-VW story as an object lesson in how a revolutionary car also has to come out of a revolutionary manufacturing process, followed by a novel service-after-sale process. It prefigures Apple's approach to the way they already do business, and it's the missing piece of the puzzle that Detroit (and the current automotive writers) never ever got. (Well, after Ford did the assembly line thing, anyway.) It's engineering as if process and people mattered, and the economy of post-war Germany rode on the wave. Now maybe Apple's about to do it for electricity and the world.
I'm assuming they're going to do a world People's Car eventually, by the way. Highly energy-efficient, completely recyclable, nothing wasted, etc.
Comments
Yes, the hiring of drive train systems engineers is intriguing.
When they make an iPhone or other device that only needs to be charged once a week, they might gain some credibility that they can build a car that doesn't need to be charged after every short trip. And rumor has it that the Apple Watch might not even last a day without needing to be recharged.
I'm with Benjamin Frost on this one. Electric cars as a mass market device don't work with the tech we have available today. And I'm not sure how, as great a company as Apple is, they can accomplish in the next four years what Tesla hasn't yet been able to accomplish. If Apple wants to sell an elite car, as Tesla does, to the 1% who can not only afford the car, but afford the charging infrastructure and the cost of electricity in their home, they can do that, but then very few people will own the car. I've been to a Tesla showroom, but even in NYC, even in areas where apartments sell for many $millions or rent for $5000 a month, I have never seen a Tesla on the road and I have seen a Rolls parked on the street near my apartment in Queens (of all places).
In Tesla showrooms, they have an interactive display to supposedly show you how much you can save by not buying gasoline compared to the cost of electricity, but they don't fully load the electricity cost, so it's totally phony. In NYC, the fully loaded cost of electricity is about 34 cents per KW/hour.
The other issue is I'm not sure electric cars are the answer to environmental issues. It just changes where the fossil fuels are used. In NYC, Con Ed burns fossil fuels to produce electricity. So if everyone had electric cars, Con Ed would have to burn a lot more fossil fuel. In addition, if electric cars were ever to become immensely popular, battery disposal is going to become a huge problem. My personal opinion is that the car of the future is going to be a hybrid using multiple technologies.
And for those who keep stating, "Tesla is doing great", by what standardrerie are you evaluating them? They have a car that only the super-rich can afford and they lose money on every car they sell. I think their cars are quite beautiful and I appreciate their objectives, but if Wall Street ever gets impatient for profits, it's all over for them. My understanding is that Tesla is on track to sell about 30,000 cars a year worldwide. That's actually not very many, although perhaps impressive for a car that sells for $70,000 and up.
I own two EV's and know that most of your posts is simply wrong. I have a Tesla Model S and a 1974 V thing that I converted to battery electric drive.
Tesla produced 35,000 cars last year and are on target for 50,000 this year and 500,000 for 2020....
They average about 28% margin on the cars they produce right now.
Batteries are easy to recycle so not worries there. In fact Tesla is building a recycling stream into it's new 5 billion dollar battery factory it is building. Lead acid batteries are HIGHLY toxic and are almost 100% recycled today. Lithium ION batteries are NOT toxic and contain valuable metals that people WANT to recover...
Even if EV are powered by coal fired power plants (Only 36% of the US grid now) they are still cleaner that almost all ICE cars. The reason is simple. It is a very dirty business to refine oil into gasoline. You burn very dirty left overs of the crude to create the steam to refine gas. In fact there is enough pollution released into the air from the refining of one gallon of gas to provide enough electricity from a power plant to dive that EV over 50 miles and that DOES NOT include the pollution for Burning the gas in the car...
I have made many road trips in my Model S using the FREE supercharging network and see it as the future. A 15-20 minute stop every 2-3 hr of drive is just not that big of a deal considering I NEVER hare to go out of my way to visit a gas station or stand in the cold/heat to refuel.
Could you tell us more about this VW Thing you converted to electric? Did you use a kit? Did you use a website? Have you done this sort of conversation before? What is your background prior to the conversation? Did you take pics and/or detail the steps you took? Do you have any advice? Did I miss anything?
Rubbish.
Most gas cars regularly get 450 miles to a tank today. Many get 550 miles.
Electric cars are nowhere. If Apple were to succeed with one, they would have to use transformative technology that doesn't currently exist. Even if they found it, it would still take decades for electric vehicles to gain even 20% share of the market.
And for Marvin, who wrote the comment that cars are only good for 80,000 miles: no. Cars are so well-made these days that they can easily go for 200,000 miles and more.
As zoetmb said, hybrid seems the most promising solution.
As a Tesla Model S owner and the owner of another converted BEV (1974 VW Thing), I can say with 100% certainty, you have NO IDEA what you are talking about...!!!
The batteries that Tesla is using in the Model S have a life expectancy of approximately 2000 deep cycles. That is assuming that you abuse the cells and charge them to 100% all of the time. So, 2000 x 260 miles = 520,000 miles. Give that there is exactly 5 moving parts in the entire electric drive train and the fact that the car is all aluminum, it is likely that these cars will need very little maintenance for several hundred thousand miles.
However, since people RARELY drive over 40-50 miles in a day, most owners (Like myself) use the 20% 80% rule. We charge the car to 80% capacity and do not discharge it below 20%. This yields 160 miles which is fine for most daily use. When you do this, the pack life is greatly extended to about 5000 cycles. So 5000 * 160 miles = 800,000 miles...
On tripsI use the quickly expanding supercharging network which adds about 170 miles of range in 20 minutes. So if you charge to full capacity right before a long trip, you get a solid 260 miles of range. If you stop for 1hr at a supercharger you get another full 260 miles of range. That is over 500 miles for the time it takes to eat lunch and use the bathroom. Long Haul truck driver average about 500-600 miles a day for comparison. The range is just NOT the big deal you are desperately (for what ever reason) trying to make it out to be...
Apart that it takes less than five minutes to refuel. So yeah, 20 minutes is an eternity. Anyway, I think charging is more than twice that, even just to get to 80%. Charging completely still takes hours.
There's a long, long way to go before charging times become acceptable to the mass market.
Lets look at the Reality vs you opinion....
Could you tell us more about this VW Thing you converted to electric? Did you use a kit? Did you use a website? Have you done this sort of conversation before? What is your background prior to the conversation? Did you take pics and/or detail the steps you took? Do you have any advice? Did I miss anything?
You can see everything at: www.EVThing.me
I have restored cars and built hotrods most of my life. I am also both an electrical and Mechannical engineer...
I own two EV's and know that most of your posts is simply wrong. I have a Tesla Model S and a 1974 V thing that I converted to battery electric drive.
Tesla produced 35,000 cars last year and are on target for 50,000 this year and 500,000 for 2020....
They average about 28% margin on the cars they produce right now.
I have made many road trips in my Model S using the FREE supercharging network and see it as the future. a 15-20 minute stop evert 2-3 hr of drive is just not that big of a deal considering I NEVER hare to go out of my way to visit a gas station or stand in the cold/heat to refuel.
Yes, they have a 27.5% gross margin, but they've never shown a profit. In 2014, their net was a $300 million loss. I'm not saying they're never going to be profitable, but it's going to be difficult to accomplish that until they achieve mass and they won't achieve mass with a car that sells for $70K and up. And they're not selling 500K cars within the next four years unless the price comes down to below $50,000 and maybe not even then, unless they create a leasing model.
There are only two superchargers in NYC - one in Manhattan and one near JFK airport. So for most long trips that I would take, I would have to drive at least 45 minutes out of my way to charge the car. A trip that I take frequently - from Queens, NY to near Woodstock, NY (about 125 miles each way) has no supercharger on the route unless I stop in Manhattan first. Going up route 95 to New England, there's two within a few miles of each other between Stamford and Darien. That makes no sense to me - with such a dearth of charging stations, why would they put two so close together. Of course I'm not a customer for the car anyway - no way am I spending $70K on a car.
It looks to me like the Supercharger network is far more advanced on the west coast. There's three on Wilshire Blvd in L.A. just between Route 1 and the 405. Then there's four more around Beverly Hills and several others near Sunset Blvd. I could see people who live in the area being comfortable with that. But all that is only if you're willing to wait for however long it takes to charge the car. I don't see many people being that patient, especially if they have to do it every other day. So they'll eventually get there, but the tech has got a bit to go...personally, I think the range has to be at least 400 miles - 300 miles at the barest minimum and for people who don't have a charger at home or in their garage, it has to charge in less than 10 minutes.
There's another issue and that's if I'm totally wrong and they become incredibly successful, then people are going to find themselves waiting on line at the charging stations. No one is going to put up with that, especially the masters of the universe who can afford such a car.
Thanks! Something like that would be perfect for me in my around town errands and morning trips to the beach to surf, I'm just not sure it's $27k worth of value, although for a project that sounds reasonable.
Yes, they have a 27.5% gross margin, but they've never shown a profit. In 2014, their net was a $300 million loss. I'm not saying they're never going to be profitable, but it's going to be difficult to accomplish that until they achieve mass and they won't achieve mass with a car that sells for $70K and up. And they're not selling 500K cars within the next four years unless the price comes down to below $50,000 and maybe not even then, unless they create a leasing model.
There are only two superchargers in NYC - one in Manhattan and one near JFK airport. So for most long trips that I would take, I would have to drive at least 45 minutes out of my way to charge the car. A trip that I take frequently - from Queens, NY to near Woodstock, NY (about 125 miles each way) has no supercharger on the route unless I stop in Manhattan first. Going up route 95 to New England, there's two within a few miles of each other between Stamford and Darien. That makes no sense to me - with such a dearth of charging stations, why would they put two so close together. Of course I'm not a customer for the car anyway - no way am I spending $70K on a car.
It looks to me like the Supercharger network is far more advanced on the west coast. There's three on Wilshire Blvd in L.A. just between Route 1 and the 405. Then there's four more around Beverly Hills and several others near Sunset Blvd. I could see people who live in the area being comfortable with that. But all that is only if you're willing to wait for however long it takes to charge the car. I don't see many people being that patient, especially if they have to do it every other day. So they'll eventually get there, but the tech has got a bit to go...personally, I think the range has to be at least 400 miles - 300 miles at the barest minimum and for people who don't have a charger at home or in their garage, it has to charge in less than 10 minutes.
There's another issue and that's if I'm totally wrong and they become incredibly successful, then people are going to find themselves waiting on line at the charging stations. No one is going to put up with that, especially the masters of the universe who can afford such a car.
They are not currently GAAP profitable because of there reinvestment on R&D and expanding the supercharging network.
The plan for Tesl is to release a 200 mile EV for $35,000 in the year 2017 or 2018. They are building a 5 billion dollar battery factory now to drive the battery cost down and to have enough supply to make over 500,000 cars a year by 2020.
We do not need near as many supercharges as gas stations simply because more people will charge 95+% of the time at home. It is also fairly easy to install level 2 chargers at destination sites like restaurants, hotels, malls, etc... Most people would not allow gas station to be install at these places. Car spend the vast majority of their life parked. It will require some effort to improve public charging, but as Tesla has show it is not that hard. ONE company has now covered 80% of the US, and well over 90% of Europe and England and is now working on Asia and Australia... Just imaging how fast it will expand as GM, FORD, BMW, PORSCHE, etc get into the game...
We are still at the early stages of BEV adoption, but it will dramatically change in the next few years... Even GM has announced a 200 mile $37,500 BEV that will begin production late next year...
Thanks! Something like that would be perfect for me in my around town errands and morning trips to the beach to surf, I'm just not sure it's $27k worth of value, although for a project that sounds reasonable.
It is a lot of fun. If you are on the west cost and get interested in the Idea, I know the guys at www.EVWest.com. They sell a kit for the VW platform and have a complete bolt on kit for the Bug. It can literally be installed in a long weekend. They are probably the best guys in the business.
I admit that the restoration and conversion was a bit expensive and probably not a good investment, but this is a real Acapulco Edition of the VW Thing. In it's current restored condition they can fetch about $25,000 on eBay. I still have the original engine and could easily convert it back to stock as the car's sheet metal, pan and tranaxle are largely unmodified...
In general it cost about $15K worth of part to do a conversion like this one but I doubt it would even truly make economic sense (restoring classic cars never will)
So batteries don't need replacing for twenty years?
News to me.
One small problem:
Most people can't recharge at home, so they'd have to spend hours hooked up at a petrol station.
That's one big reason why electric is dead.
So batteries don't need replacing for twenty years?
News to me.
Obviously....
One small problem:
Most people can't recharge at home, so they'd have to spend hours hooked up at a petrol station.
That's one big reason why electric is dead.
All cars must be parked somewhere when not in use. Public charging will have to be part of the solution. About 67% of the people in the US live in houses. So you statement of MOST is simply wrong. We need do need to concentrate on them first obviously.
However when people see the advantage of about 3 cents per mile of fuel for the BEV ( average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents per Kwh) they will want one and demand that apartments and condo owners accommodate them and they will or lose out to the ones that do....
All cars must be parked somewhere when not in use. Public charging will have to be part of the solution. About 67% of the people in the US live in houses. So you statement of MOST is simply wrong. We need do need to concentrate on them first obviously.
However when people see the advantage of about 3 cents per mile of fuel for the BEV ( average cost of electricity in the US is 12 cents per Kwh) they will want one and demand that apartments and condo owners accommodate them and they will or lose out to the ones that do....
As more and more people use electric cars, I can see the price of charging at various locations getting more and more expensive. If there is a buck to be made somewhere, it will eventually be exploited. Unless, of course, the advent of the electric vehicle is the harbinger of socialism.
I just realized something about this rumor. It’s the opposite of all the other failed rumors before it.
Rather than some ding-dong screaming about a product that will never happen and gradually petering out about it *coughHDTVcough*, this rumor sets up FIVE YEARS OF LIBEL ahead of time.
In the lead up to 2020, we’ll see increasingly vociferous posts about how the car is coming the car will come the car has to happen Apple will be bankrupted without the car and then when 2020 passes and nothing happens…
No one will be punished.
No one will be fired.
No one will be imprisoned for manipulation.
:???: Haven't you been reading the thread!?
I just realized something about this rumor. It’s the opposite of all the other failed rumors before it.
Rather than some ding-dong screaming about a product that will never happen and gradually petering out about it *coughHDTVcough*, this rumor sets up FIVE YEARS OF LIBEL ahead of time.
In the lead up to 2020, we’ll see increasingly vociferous posts about how the car is coming the car will come the car has to happen Apple will be bankrupted without the car and then when 2020 passes and nothing happens…
No one will be punished.
No one will be fired.
No one will be imprisoned for manipulation.
I'm curious... how is the publication of the statement, "Apple is going to make an electric car", a defamation of Apple's character?
Yes.
Why the frown?
Thanks for that So Cal link. I think I'll go visit those guys some day. In my opinion, it would be worth converting a VW, whether a squareback, bug or Thing, just to keep driving that torsion-bar sprung, 4-wheel-independent, rear-engine experience a bit longer. So yeah, I think it's worth the $$ if you've got it, if only to keep experimenting with the platform. Your videos bear this out.
A lot of people don't realize what a great road car Porsche developed in that original VW chassis, running gear and body configuration. And hats off to Hans Ludwinka of Tatra for the air-cooled, rear-engine-on-a-backbone-frame as well, Porsche's inspiration.
I hope Jony and the engineers at least look into the Porsche-VW story as an object lesson in how a revolutionary car also has to come out of a revolutionary manufacturing process, followed by a novel service-after-sale process. It prefigures Apple's approach to the way they already do business, and it's the missing piece of the puzzle that Detroit (and the current automotive writers) never ever got. (Well, after Ford did the assembly line thing, anyway.) It's engineering as if process and people mattered, and the economy of post-war Germany rode on the wave. Now maybe Apple's about to do it for electricity and the world.
I'm assuming they're going to do a world People's Car eventually, by the way. Highly energy-efficient, completely recyclable, nothing wasted, etc.