A clarification (but one that strengthens your point): Apple's current PE is not 20.6x, it is 17.9x. It's forward PE is 14.4x. It's forward PE ex-cash is 11x.
You're right, I was using the closing 2014 figure, which obviously was before the recent blowout quarter:
If you voodoo chart is correct why are MILLIONS of shares being bought between $126-$133 the last few weeks? You don't think these massive BILLION dollar banks have the same charts as you? And if they do would they not wait till it dips to $115 instead of buying MILLIONS of shares the last week at +$125?
You are also relying on a long-term trend line that started in 2008. You really think Apple is the same company now as 2008? Really? Also you are not taking into consideration Apple's buyback that can reverse any trend.
Personally I do look at charts, moving averages, bollingerband, ect when I analize stocks. But fundamentals ALWAYS trumps technical analysis. And at this point it would be foolish to wait for Apple to reach $115 to buy. IMO, we will see $140 before we see $115.
I remember the same doubters here saying buying Apple was at $90 was a mistake last year. Thankfully I ignored their request and now that person no longer posts here.
Referring to my chart as voodoo is disrespectful, but anyways, There is one emotion that drives stock prices and its called fear - in two ways:
1) fear of price dropping more and selling based on that fear
2) fear that stock will keep rising and chance of missing out on future profits (another word for this is greed)
It is a well known fact among seasoned investors and traders:
When a share starts to rise (after previous trend or gap up after earnings, or even after a gap down and buyers come back in once support is reached, the smart money gets in first. This gets noticed and more buyers hoping to profit start buying and it feeds on its self. It's not a science but there is some evidence supporting it. As you probably know, the indicators like MACD'S, stochastics, RSI, to name a 3, tell the experts potentially when the surge in buying starts to wane. Just looking at the chart won't typically show this.
The novice investors and those investors who , and they are commonly called "last gasp buyers" think a stock can only keep going up and buy right at resistance. A typical sign of this is a red candle high, Apple just had one on Tuesday 24th Feb and has traded with lower lows and lower highs each day since. Of course it wont do its journey down to support in a straight line it will roll down (usually 3 rolls) and reach support whatever that is but it should correspond to some previous resistance or support levels as I indicated in my last post.
I thinks it not good karma to be a perma bul l like many on this site who are emotionally invested with Apple because its causing less experienced investors (usually impatient too) to buy when they shouldn't be and is losing them money when a pull back occurs and pullbacks are inevitable.
To your question why are MILLIONS of shares being bought between $126-$133 the last few weeks? The question is mostly irrelevant imho. because, its simply normal trading, millions of decisions, some short, medium and long term horizons. All I know is that Wed, for me, it was a good day to sell and take profit off the table and wait for it to reach the next support level and then get back in for next roll up
Your question? "You really think Apple is the same company now as 2008?" no of course not, but I have not come across a chart that in some way does NOT predict the future. Previous lines drawn from high do work imho. You can argue it all you want but time and time again drawing these lines - its uncanny how they DO predict future high points. And the fact it happened again with Apple is further proof. Do you think its pure coincidence that a line just happens touch all these highs going back to 2008. Try it for the DOW and you will see it works
I agree with you that fundamentals TRUMP trumps technical analysis. but not always in the short term. I use both and it depends ones time horizon. I'm more of a monthly trade and I also trade a lot of options , not in Apple because its stock price is too high and the ROI is less than a stock between $10 and $30. Its simply is so much easier to make money off options on $10 stock because the price moves so much more than a stock 10 times the price like apple.
Predicting stock movement is not an exact science : seeing 140 before 115 , you simply are guessing . I tend to use charts to give some sort of guide and it has worked well for me so far. The final proof is how much money one makes and that is all that matters at the end of the day. And you should not have more than 10% of your portfolio in one stock. I hope you don't, even in Apple as happened to many folks when it pullback a few years ago.
But when i do spotlight on my iPhone internet searches are still going to Google
Sog35,
I am not 100% sure about IOS, but I can tell you as of OSX 10.10 spotlight is searching the internet and bypassing Google for most part. It will not surprise me if they migrate this to IOS. They are most like working to get it correct on the Mac. Also you can change your default search on IOS to other search engines.
Comments
A clarification (but one that strengthens your point): Apple's current PE is not 20.6x, it is 17.9x. It's forward PE is 14.4x. It's forward PE ex-cash is 11x.
You're right, I was using the closing 2014 figure, which obviously was before the recent blowout quarter:
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/aapl/pe-ratio
yeah you keep holding on tight to that last bastion of microsoft hope.
If you voodoo chart is correct why are MILLIONS of shares being bought between $126-$133 the last few weeks? You don't think these massive BILLION dollar banks have the same charts as you? And if they do would they not wait till it dips to $115 instead of buying MILLIONS of shares the last week at +$125?
You are also relying on a long-term trend line that started in 2008. You really think Apple is the same company now as 2008? Really? Also you are not taking into consideration Apple's buyback that can reverse any trend.
Personally I do look at charts, moving averages, bollingerband, ect when I analize stocks. But fundamentals ALWAYS trumps technical analysis. And at this point it would be foolish to wait for Apple to reach $115 to buy. IMO, we will see $140 before we see $115.
I remember the same doubters here saying buying Apple was at $90 was a mistake last year. Thankfully I ignored their request and now that person no longer posts here.
Referring to my chart as voodoo is disrespectful, but anyways, There is one emotion that drives stock prices and its called fear - in two ways:
1) fear of price dropping more and selling based on that fear
2) fear that stock will keep rising and chance of missing out on future profits (another word for this is greed)
It is a well known fact among seasoned investors and traders:
When a share starts to rise (after previous trend or gap up after earnings, or even after a gap down and buyers come back in once support is reached, the smart money gets in first. This gets noticed and more buyers hoping to profit start buying and it feeds on its self. It's not a science but there is some evidence supporting it. As you probably know, the indicators like MACD'S, stochastics, RSI, to name a 3, tell the experts potentially when the surge in buying starts to wane. Just looking at the chart won't typically show this.
The novice investors and those investors who , and they are commonly called "last gasp buyers" think a stock can only keep going up and buy right at resistance. A typical sign of this is a red candle high, Apple just had one on Tuesday 24th Feb and has traded with lower lows and lower highs each day since. Of course it wont do its journey down to support in a straight line it will roll down (usually 3 rolls) and reach support whatever that is but it should correspond to some previous resistance or support levels as I indicated in my last post.
I thinks it not good karma to be a perma bul l like many on this site who are emotionally invested with Apple because its causing less experienced investors (usually impatient too) to buy when they shouldn't be and is losing them money when a pull back occurs and pullbacks are inevitable.
To your question why are MILLIONS of shares being bought between $126-$133 the last few weeks? The question is mostly irrelevant imho. because, its simply normal trading, millions of decisions, some short, medium and long term horizons. All I know is that Wed, for me, it was a good day to sell and take profit off the table and wait for it to reach the next support level and then get back in for next roll up
Your question? "You really think Apple is the same company now as 2008?" no of course not, but I have not come across a chart that in some way does NOT predict the future. Previous lines drawn from high do work imho. You can argue it all you want but time and time again drawing these lines - its uncanny how they DO predict future high points. And the fact it happened again with Apple is further proof. Do you think its pure coincidence that a line just happens touch all these highs going back to 2008. Try it for the DOW and you will see it works
I agree with you that fundamentals TRUMP trumps technical analysis. but not always in the short term. I use both and it depends ones time horizon. I'm more of a monthly trade and I also trade a lot of options , not in Apple because its stock price is too high and the ROI is less than a stock between $10 and $30. Its simply is so much easier to make money off options on $10 stock because the price moves so much more than a stock 10 times the price like apple.
Predicting stock movement is not an exact science : seeing 140 before 115 , you simply are guessing . I tend to use charts to give some sort of guide and it has worked well for me so far. The final proof is how much money one makes and that is all that matters at the end of the day. And you should not have more than 10% of your portfolio in one stock. I hope you don't, even in Apple as happened to many folks when it pullback a few years ago.
Sog35,
I am not 100% sure about IOS, but I can tell you as of OSX 10.10 spotlight is searching the internet and bypassing Google for most part. It will not surprise me if they migrate this to IOS. They are most like working to get it correct on the Mac. Also you can change your default search on IOS to other search engines.