UBS predicts Apple will sell massive 58M iPhones in March quarter

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited March 2015
Demand for the iPhone 6 continues to outstrip Apple's ability to keep up with supply, as a new survey from UBS has led the investment firm to increase its projected sales for the March quarter to a whopping 58 million units.




The UBS Evidence Lab's iPhone Monitor estimates that demand for the iPhone in the March quarter will be at 66 million units. With global demand outstripping supply, analyst Steven Milunovich has increased his forecast for the quarter, from 55 million units to 58 million.

Milunovich's numbers are higher than Wall Street, which currently has consensus at about 54 million iPhones for the quarter.

To put the numbers in perspective, Apple sold 43.7 million iPhones in the same quarter a year ago. Apple has only topped 50 million iPhones twice in its history, and both times were holiday quarters the last two years.

Milunovich's bullish outlook for iPhone sales comes on the heels of a separate forecast from Barclays issued earlier this week, in which the investment firm called for Apple to sell 54 million iPhones in the March quarter. But even Barclays analyst Ben A. Reitzes admitted his estimate, which would represent a 24 percent year over year increase in sales, is "conservative."




iPhone sales saw a massive 46 percent increase in the preceding December quarter, reaching record sales of 74.5 million units in the three-month span. Because the iPhone lineup is updated just once a year in September, sales peak during the holiday quarter and then gradually decline from quarter to quarter until the next refresh.

UBS's iPhone Monitor figures utilizes individual search results for over 20 countries, weighted by respective country data from Gartner Market Statistics. Further adjustments to the model are made to account for quarterly variances and seasonal effects, based on a sample period from calendar Q4 2008 to calendar Q4 2012.

The latest data from UBS shows that sales in China are driving the potential for an upside surprise in the March quarter. Specifically, searches for the iPhone in China are up 115 percent year over year and 7 percent sequentially.

In addition, continued demand is also being supported by existing iPhone user upgrades, as well as switchers from Android and other platforms. A survey conducted by UBS shows that just 13 percent of iPhone users have upgraded to the latest iPhone 6, while 20 percent of Samsung users are considering a switch to Apple.

UBS has maintained its 12-month price target of $150 with a "buy" rating for investors.
«1

Comments

  • Reply 1 of 28
    davebarnesdavebarnes Posts: 264member
    So, if Apple only sells 57M phones, then they are doomed?
    As someone who is not a Wall Street Analyst, I just want to make sure that I understand this.
  • Reply 2 of 28
    magman1979magman1979 Posts: 1,089member
    This just puts a big smile on my face! Apple is just obliterating the completion in the high-end smartphone market, there is no longer any doubt of this.
    davebarnes wrote: »
    So, if Apple only sells 57M phones, then they are doomed?
    As someone who is not a Wall Street Analyst, I just want to make sure that I understand this.

    The quarter following the holidays is always slower, so the numbers won't be nearly as high as they were during Christmas. Anal-ysts will continue to be total clueless douches regardless of how well Apple performs.
  • Reply 3 of 28
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,370member
    When I read this stuff from analysis it sounds like a huge setup to short the stock. They are over guiding above what Apple has already said. This is the opposite of what they doing to Amazon and Tesla, they are way under estimating their numbers so any improvement is great news so they can spike the stock up.
  • Reply 4 of 28
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    Total and utter domination of the high end smartphone market


     

    Yes, that would mean 130M in 6 months. Took them 9 months to do this last year.

    Pretty sure all of those are not current Iphone users. That must really hurt.

    I expect that it is in China right now that they're really killing it; Samsung will suffer in this quarter even more than the previous one.

  • Reply 5 of 28
    davebarnesdavebarnes Posts: 264member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MagMan1979 View Post

    Anal-ysts will continue to be total clueless douches regardless of how well Apple performs.

    Isn't douche for another orifice?

  • Reply 6 of 28
    magman1979magman1979 Posts: 1,089member
    davebarnes wrote: »
    Isn't douche for another orifice?
    They're so clueless they pull double-duty 8-)
  • Reply 7 of 28
    jungmarkjungmark Posts: 6,589member
    58 seems kind of high for the after holiday quarter. Then again I thought 60 was high for the holiday quarter. Whatever number it is, it would be frakking amazing.
  • Reply 8 of 28
    magman1979magman1979 Posts: 1,089member
    maestro64 wrote: »
    When I read this stuff from analysis it sounds like a huge setup to short the stock. They are over guiding above what Apple has already said. This is the opposite of what they doing to Amazon and Tesla, they are way under estimating their numbers so any improvement is great news so they can spike the stock up.
    I can't remember, what was Apple's guidance for this quarter for iPhone sales?
  • Reply 9 of 28
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by MagMan1979 View Post





    I can't remember, what was Apple's guidance for this quarter for iPhone sales?

    For Q2 2015 Apple is providing guidance between $52 billion and $55 billion

    Hard to say what that means in phone sales (depends how the rest of Apple's device sell).

    But, since the Iphone probably has a softer decline in sales after christmas than all other devices,

    I'd say that a LOT of this guidance is Iphone sales. So, I think they expect at least 54M

     

    BTW, they made 57B in Q1 2014... That they would make just as much in Q2 2015 is just insane,.

  • Reply 10 of 28
    magman1979magman1979 Posts: 1,089member
    foggyhill wrote: »
    For Q2 2015 Apple is providing guidance between $52 billion and $55 billion
    Hard to say what that means in phone sales (depends how the rest of Apple's device sell).
    But, since the Iphone probably has a softer decline in sales after christmas than all other devices,
    I'd say that a LOT of this guidance is Iphone sales. So, I think they expect at least 54M

    BTW, they made 57B in Q1 2014... That they would make just as much in Q2 2015 is just insane,.
    Again, just puts a smile on my face! Anything that sees Apple succeeding, and Scamsung dying is a good thing in my books.
  • Reply 11 of 28
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,370member
    foggyhill wrote: »
    For Q2 2015 Apple is providing guidance between $52 billion and $55 billion
    Hard to say what that means in phone sales (depends how the rest of Apple's device sell).
    But, since the Iphone probably has a softer decline in sales after christmas than all other devices,
    I'd say that a LOT of this guidance is Iphone sales. So, I think they expect at least 54M

    BTW, they made 57B in Q1 2014... That they would make just as much in Q2 2015 is just insane,.

    Correct and Apple did not put a number phones they would sell, but notice the analysis are not saying they revenue is going to be up. All anyone is going to remember is they it was suppose to be 58M phone and any less then this will be a failure even if apple beat the revenue guidance this is the issue. They putting numbers out there which they can use to short or down play any success.
  • Reply 12 of 28
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Still no prediction for the ASP this quarter? I'm still guessing it'll be higher because of extra 6 Plus sales in China.
  • Reply 13 of 28
    maccentricmaccentric Posts: 263member
    Quote:


    The UBS Evidence Lab's iPhone Monitor estimates that demand for the iPhone in the March quarter will be at 66 million units. With global demand outstripping supply, analyst Steven Milunovich has increased his forecast for the quarter, from 55 million units to 58 million.


     

     

    This part does not make one bit of sense.  Tim Cook said on the conference call in January that they recently reached supply demand balance in January for the iPhone.  Additionally, they were able to sell over 74 million in Q1.  I cannot under any circumstances believe that Apple will not be able to fill 100% of the demand for iPhone, which makes this projected disconnect between demand and supply ridiculous.  I am however, cautiously hopeful that the 55-58 million number for iPhones this quarter is correct.

  • Reply 14 of 28
    michael scripmichael scrip Posts: 1,912member
    solipsismy wrote: »
    Still no prediction for the ASP this quarter? I'm still guessing it'll be higher because of extra 6 Plus sales in China.

    The ASP for the iPhone should be higher or at worst case the same. But I'm guessing higher.
  • Reply 15 of 28
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,073member
    That's close to what some analysts were predicting for the Christmas quarter.

    I expect the estimate to go up to 65M next week.
  • Reply 16 of 28
    sflocalsflocal Posts: 4,334member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MagMan1979 View Post



    This just puts a big smile on my face! Apple is just obliterating the completion in the high-end smartphone market, there is no longer any doubt of this.

    The quarter following the holidays is always slower, so the numbers won't be nearly as high as they were during Christmas. Anal-ysts will continue to be total clueless douches regardless of how well Apple performs.



    Doesn't this quarter factor in Chinese New Year?  It's their version of our Christmas season.  I expect Apple will have one helluva quarter this year on-par with the last one just on that one piece alone.

  • Reply 17 of 28
    magman1979magman1979 Posts: 1,089member
    sflocal wrote: »

    Doesn't this quarter factor in Chinese New Year?  It's their version of our Christmas season.  I expect Apple will have one helluva quarter this year on-par with the last one just on that one piece alone.
    Good point, I totally forgot about the Chinese New Year... Now that I think it, there was another recent article that stated the iPhone, and in general all Apple gear, had become the #1 brand / item in China for the wealthy to purchase as gifts for friends and family. I think you're correct that we're about to see another blow-out quarter!
  • Reply 18 of 28
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,947member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sflocal View Post

     



    Doesn't this quarter factor in Chinese New Year?  It's their version of our Christmas season.  I expect Apple will have one helluva quarter this year on-par with the last one just on that one piece alone.


    Yup, and Valentine too.

  • Reply 19 of 28
    pfisherpfisher Posts: 758member

    The 6S will really have to have some stunning features to sell well. 

     

    Anyone know how well the "S" models sold as compares to the "non-S" models?

     

    I've always bought the "S" model, but went with the 6+ and will probably get the 6S and upgrade every year now. But most people don't do that.

     

    Again, my view is that it's not Apple vs Android. It's Apple vs. Apple - since they OWN the high-end market in profits. 

     

    It must be hard to compete against yourself, rather than someone else. Or maybe not?

  • Reply 20 of 28
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,947member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    Total and utter domination of the high end smartphone market


    People buy iPhone, people use iPhone, people give away iPhone and people are hungry for more. That's reality. In Asia, there's no such thing said: I owned an iPhone, but I own a latest iPhone. iPhone becomes a cool factor/symbolic status in people's lives over there. My brother in law  in Asia just spent his 4-month gross salary on an iPhone 6, of course in Gold color. Yup. That's how people live there.

Sign In or Register to comment.