This seems like the opposite of a smart business strategy. They're already probably going to sell as many as they can make, artificial scarcity doesn't do much to move demand -- we saw that with the iPhone, and even Tim Cook has said in the past that he wishes they could build more phones faster.
Quite right, because it isn't smart, nor does Apple do it deliberately (conspiracy theorists notwithstanding). We're getting lots of signals that Apple is trying to change this buying experience. They want more customers to be matched up to more available product.
The more and more I read about the Watch, the more I want one. Maybe it's simple fandom, but I may have talked myself into the stainless steel one as well. I was going to wait for the 2nd gen, but might be getting in the Preorder line.
Why do you like the stainless vs aluminum? I think that aluminum is nicer looking and also much lighter. I was kind of expecting aluminum to be the mid-price point version instead of stainless.
SS is more durable, it has a sapphire crystal, and it has a ceramic case back.
I think the SS looks nicer, and I actually prefer the weight over lightness.
Stainless is a much more difficult material to work with. There was never any chance that it was going to be less expensive than aluminum.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they don't custom configure the watch + bands in China, on demand, when you order, and then ship directly from China to your door. I have ordered small items from the Apple online store in the past and received them, in one case, the next day, shipped directly from China to southern California. I doubt they would commit all of their stock to specific combinations in advance.
I would be shocked if they did it any other way. Perhaps not entirely "on demand," but JIT assembly based on the demand for the configurations.
Why do you like the stainless vs aluminum? I think that aluminum is nicer looking and also much lighter. I was kind of expecting aluminum to be the mid-price point version instead of stainless.
SS is more durable, it has a sapphire crystal, and it has a ceramic case back.
I think the SS looks nicer, and I actually prefer the weight over lightness.
Stainless is a much more difficult material to work with. There was never any chance that it was going to be less expensive than aluminum.
And it's available in black. Moreover, upon reflection, I've come to the conclusion that the link bracelet -- which, I think, is only available with the Black SS -- is going to be an engineering marvel (hence the ~$500 cost, i.e., almost as much as the watch itself costs).
Scarcity increases perceived value and tends to generate excitement to acquire Apple's products in the first month or so. Intentional or not, it works.
I get that this is an influencing variable, but it's offset by several factors. The biggest of which is that even if Apple were fully supplied, the lines, crowds and excitement would be there anyway... or not in which case scarcity isn't going to have an impact. Other factors include word of mouth, and other influencers which require actually have large numbers of product shipped. It's a lot more complex than Marketing 101, there are issues here of early number reporting that affects developer decisions as well as accessories and the rest of the ecosystem.
The bottom line is to sell as many products as you can without trying to game the system. Scarcity games rarely work at this level, and usually are the result of perceived scarcity (Cabbage Patch dolls) and don't usually translate into a sustained long term sales strategy, but rather impact demand during the holidays.
The only people you see playing this game today are those who don't have confidence in the success of the product. Blackberry has done this, and Microsoft routinely does this. They'll produce a low initial order, announce they sold out, and then based on measurements of how swiftly it sold out, and how back-ordered they are, they'll vary their long term production run. This is pretty transparent, doesn't influence anyone, and those who are annoyed by the delay often buy competitive products.
The more and more I read about the Watch, the more I want one. Maybe it's simple fandom, but I may have talked myself into the stainless steel one as well. I was going to wait for the 2nd gen, but might be getting in the Preorder line.
I think the biggest question is when would we even see a second gen in a year or maybe 2 ? I can't see them doing a yearly update. That's what makes me want one now versus waiting another 2 years. Still can't decide if i should dip my toes with the sport, but the stainless that Scott Stein from cnet was wearing looked awesome.
There's nothing artificial about this. This is an extremely complex product, in regards to # of models and skus. Easily the most complex in Apple's history. The've never sold anything like this before. Its expected that many combination of models will be tough to find initially in all stores.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they don't custom configure the watch + bands in China, on demand, when you order, and then ship directly from China to your door. I have ordered small items from the Apple online store in the past and received them, in one case, the next day, shipped directly from China to southern California. I doubt they would commit all of their stock to specific combinations in advance.
That's amazing!
I can remember the (long gone) halcyon days of the US Post Office -- when a letter mailed from anywhere in the US to anywhere in the US would arrive in one day (except no Sunday delivery)!
I think the biggest question is when would we even see a second gen in a year or maybe 2 ? I can't see them doing a yearly update. That's what makes me want one now versus waiting another 2 years. Still can't decide if i should dip my toes with the sport, but the stainless that Scott Stein from cnet was wearing looked awesome.
That's a really good point. I had assumed it would be an annual refresh cycle, but I admit I have no basis for that assumption lol. It's somewhat of a tough call. My initial instinct is to wait and see what kind of reviews it gets and what the typical uses for it are (as well as what, if any, bugs), but I'm not sure if I want to wait 2 or 3 extra months (since I'm sure there will be supply constraints at the beginning).
Every Apple release of phones or iPods seems to have a "favorite" color or two that becomes harder for the buyer to obtain. I guess the watch will be no exception.
I don't think they'll artificially increase demand by limiting production. Sure, not having enough will make people want it that much more.. But there's also sales numbers to worry about. No better way to say your product is cool than to say everybody else is doing it. High sales numbers are more important than a few people getting their online order delayed. Tim Cook may try not to build too many just because of his background in distribution and supplies. He knows how much money is lost when you have product sitting around.
I think the biggest question is when would we even see a second gen in a year or maybe 2 ? I can't see them doing a yearly update. That's what makes me want one now versus waiting another 2 years. Still can't decide if i should dip my toes with the sport, but the stainless that Scott Stein from cnet was wearing looked awesome.
I totally agree. I can't see Apple releasing a hardware update (gen2) for at least 2 years.
I imagine there'll be a software update somewhere along the line though.
Apple has always been smart to keep supplies constrained initially to build demand and value. This time will be no different.
A widespread mal-meme. It would be deceptive and unethical to game the market like this. Apple and especially Tim Cook don't play dirty with their customers like this, in my opinion.
Some people and at least one notable company work out of principles and ideals other than self-interest.
A widespread mal-meme. It would be deceptive and unethical to game the market like this. Apple and especially Tim Cook don't play dirty with their customers like this, in my opinion.
Some people and at least one notable company work out of principles and ideals other than self-interest.
That isn't gaming the market. At the release of a product, it would be better to have slightly constrained supply versus oversupply.
So when will it be illegal to drive while wearing an Apple Watch?
LOL. I guess, in some ways, America being a laggard on this works to its advantage. How are the Europeans, with their tough cell phone while driving rules, going to get around this issue?
Scarcity increases perceived value and tends to generate excitement to acquire Apple's products in the first month or so. Intentional or not, it works.
its not intentional. they simply cant make enough of them. each phone has one year to be designed, developed, sourced, instructed, built, shipped...they take time.
Comments
This seems like the opposite of a smart business strategy. They're already probably going to sell as many as they can make, artificial scarcity doesn't do much to move demand -- we saw that with the iPhone, and even Tim Cook has said in the past that he wishes they could build more phones faster.
Quite right, because it isn't smart, nor does Apple do it deliberately (conspiracy theorists notwithstanding). We're getting lots of signals that Apple is trying to change this buying experience. They want more customers to be matched up to more available product.
The more and more I read about the Watch, the more I want one. Maybe it's simple fandom, but I may have talked myself into the stainless steel one as well. I was going to wait for the 2nd gen, but might be getting in the Preorder line.
SS is more durable, it has a sapphire crystal, and it has a ceramic case back.
I think the SS looks nicer, and I actually prefer the weight over lightness.
Stainless is a much more difficult material to work with. There was never any chance that it was going to be less expensive than aluminum.
Agreed.
I wouldn't be at all surprised if they don't custom configure the watch + bands in China, on demand, when you order, and then ship directly from China to your door. I have ordered small items from the Apple online store in the past and received them, in one case, the next day, shipped directly from China to southern California. I doubt they would commit all of their stock to specific combinations in advance.
I would be shocked if they did it any other way. Perhaps not entirely "on demand," but JIT assembly based on the demand for the configurations.
Why do you like the stainless vs aluminum? I think that aluminum is nicer looking and also much lighter. I was kind of expecting aluminum to be the mid-price point version instead of stainless.
SS is more durable, it has a sapphire crystal, and it has a ceramic case back.
I think the SS looks nicer, and I actually prefer the weight over lightness.
Stainless is a much more difficult material to work with. There was never any chance that it was going to be less expensive than aluminum.
And it's available in black. Moreover, upon reflection, I've come to the conclusion that the link bracelet -- which, I think, is only available with the Black SS -- is going to be an engineering marvel (hence the ~$500 cost, i.e., almost as much as the watch itself costs).
Scarcity increases perceived value and tends to generate excitement to acquire Apple's products in the first month or so. Intentional or not, it works.
I get that this is an influencing variable, but it's offset by several factors. The biggest of which is that even if Apple were fully supplied, the lines, crowds and excitement would be there anyway... or not in which case scarcity isn't going to have an impact. Other factors include word of mouth, and other influencers which require actually have large numbers of product shipped. It's a lot more complex than Marketing 101, there are issues here of early number reporting that affects developer decisions as well as accessories and the rest of the ecosystem.
The bottom line is to sell as many products as you can without trying to game the system. Scarcity games rarely work at this level, and usually are the result of perceived scarcity (Cabbage Patch dolls) and don't usually translate into a sustained long term sales strategy, but rather impact demand during the holidays.
The only people you see playing this game today are those who don't have confidence in the success of the product. Blackberry has done this, and Microsoft routinely does this. They'll produce a low initial order, announce they sold out, and then based on measurements of how swiftly it sold out, and how back-ordered they are, they'll vary their long term production run. This is pretty transparent, doesn't influence anyone, and those who are annoyed by the delay often buy competitive products.
The more and more I read about the Watch, the more I want one. Maybe it's simple fandom, but I may have talked myself into the stainless steel one as well. I was going to wait for the 2nd gen, but might be getting in the Preorder line.
I think the biggest question is when would we even see a second gen in a year or maybe 2 ? I can't see them doing a yearly update. That's what makes me want one now versus waiting another 2 years. Still can't decide if i should dip my toes with the sport, but the stainless that Scott Stein from cnet was wearing looked awesome.
Seriously though: how can you estimate a ship date when preorders have not started?
That's amazing!
I can remember the (long gone) halcyon days of the US Post Office -- when a letter mailed from anywhere in the US to anywhere in the US would arrive in one day (except no Sunday delivery)!
"Act now. Supplies are limited."
Seriously though: how can you estimate a ship date when preorders have not started?
My exact thoughts
Hence the up to 50% off for employees on release date.......
All my friends at Apple will buy it, so they can't buy one for me with discount...1 per employee only...:(
I think the biggest question is when would we even see a second gen in a year or maybe 2 ? I can't see them doing a yearly update. That's what makes me want one now versus waiting another 2 years. Still can't decide if i should dip my toes with the sport, but the stainless that Scott Stein from cnet was wearing looked awesome.
That's a really good point. I had assumed it would be an annual refresh cycle, but I admit I have no basis for that assumption lol. It's somewhat of a tough call. My initial instinct is to wait and see what kind of reviews it gets and what the typical uses for it are (as well as what, if any, bugs), but I'm not sure if I want to wait 2 or 3 extra months (since I'm sure there will be supply constraints at the beginning).
Every Apple release of phones or iPods seems to have a "favorite" color or two that becomes harder for the buyer to obtain. I guess the watch will be no exception.
I totally agree. I can't see Apple releasing a hardware update (gen2) for at least 2 years.
I imagine there'll be a software update somewhere along the line though.
A widespread mal-meme. It would be deceptive and unethical to game the market like this. Apple and especially Tim Cook don't play dirty with their customers like this, in my opinion.
Some people and at least one notable company work out of principles and ideals other than self-interest.
A widespread mal-meme. It would be deceptive and unethical to game the market like this. Apple and especially Tim Cook don't play dirty with their customers like this, in my opinion.
Some people and at least one notable company work out of principles and ideals other than self-interest.
That isn't gaming the market. At the release of a product, it would be better to have slightly constrained supply versus oversupply.
LOL. I guess, in some ways, America being a laggard on this works to its advantage. How are the Europeans, with their tough cell phone while driving rules, going to get around this issue?
Scarcity increases perceived value and tends to generate excitement to acquire Apple's products in the first month or so. Intentional or not, it works.
its not intentional. they simply cant make enough of them. each phone has one year to be designed, developed, sourced, instructed, built, shipped...they take time.