Initial Apple Watch stock dries up in minutes, shipping times quickly jump to 4-6 weeks

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  • Reply 41 of 362
    cpsrocpsro Posts: 3,064member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

    If you are not willing to wait 4 weeks you were not willing to wait 2 weeks.  

     

    Stop bitching about waiting for a product you had ZERO intention of buying in the first place.


    Do you represent Apple, bunky? Stop bitching about Apple customers, bunky. The customer is always right.

    4 weeks? Sometime in June could be 11 weeks.

     

    If you do represent Apple, then how about giving us a clue as to why more units are available sooner?

  • Reply 42 of 362
    thompr wrote: »
    This delay is too long to be just a buzz-creating stunt.  They could have achieved the same buzz at 4-6 weeks and not go into June.  This is a true supply/demand imbalance, for whatever reason.

    And the last iPhone launch was crazy huge, in all kinds of unprecedented ways.  To suggest that it could have been even more huge if Apple hadn't been intent on pulling a marketing stunt by constraining supply is to under-appreciate the magnitude of what they did to supply what they did.  Ten million in 3 days?  Are you kidding me?  Should they have been able to easily build, ship, and activate 15 million?  20 million?  What's your number to believe that Apple did the best they bloody-well could?

    I can't believe that a colossus like Apple has not enough tine to make enough supply. Period
  • Reply 43 of 362
    cpsro wrote: »
    <span style="line-height:1.4em;">Do you represent Apple, bunky? Stop bitching about Apple customers, bunky. The customer is always right.</span>

    <span style="line-height:1.4em;">4 weeks? Sometime in June could be 11 weeks.</span>


    If you do represent Apple, then how about giving us a clue as to why more units are available sooner?

    Agreed! ????????
  • Reply 44 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

     



    How many thousands do you assume were available for 4-24 shipping? If it was only 20,000 per model, then that's something like 500,000 units. I could easily see them processing that many preorders in an hour or so.


    Leaving aside the fact that the demand for all models is not going to be homogeneous like this, I'll run with your numbers anyway...

     

    Note also that throughout this thread I have been describing my observation of 4-6 week delivery time for several popular models (and one less popular, most likely) within 30 seconds, not an "hour or so".  But I'll still run with your numbers...

     

    Your result was 500,000 units built and ready for 4-24 shipping.  That number is not far-fetched in my book, and I think it is consistent with what I'm saying here.  My suggestion is that this rapid "sell out", as it is being called by some on this thread, should not be measured against Apple iDevice launches in the past, wherein multiple millions of devices were ready to go on launch day.  This time is different for a lot of reasons, so we must be careful not to extrapolate our expectations into the mega-millions just because of long ship-date delays.  I think it is indicative of both high demand and a slower manufacturing rate/ramp than we are used to seeing from Apple (for whatever reason).

  • Reply 45 of 362
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    jungmark wrote: »
    "No lines = doom!" - clueless analysts

    Yet that's the same logic applied when there's no lines for a competitor's device.
  • Reply 46 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by cicconegreek View Post





    I can't believe that a colossus like Apple has not enough tine to make enough supply. Period

    I favor RadarTheKat's hypothesis, presented yesterday to explain why Apple would go for online ordering, as also a good explanation for today's events as well.

     

    There are a hell of a lot of SKUs here, since Apple knows a wearable device will need to be personalizable.  What they can't do is pre-build a shit-ton of each and ship them to stores with fingers crossed.  Tim Cook HATES inventory.  So Apple institutes online ordering and shipping only, at least at first until they get good statistical data to guide the build plans.  For the same reason, they are not going to pre-build a shit-ton of each model and keep them at the factory for shipping to users on 4/24 either.  Whether in the stores or at the factories, it's still inventory, and Tim Cook frowns on it.

     

    So Apple builds enough of some of the less expensive models that they can indeed ship a few when they said they would.  The rest are more-or-less "build-to-order", and Apple will begin to gather their statistics, adjust their build plans, and get the factories ramped up as best they can.

     

    Makes sense to me.

  • Reply 47 of 362
    I was hitting refresh every 15 sec and it didn't come up until well after 12:10 am. Had things in favorites and was checked out by 12:16 One item will ship at launch other 4-6 weeks
  • Reply 48 of 362
    thompr wrote: »
    I doubt that "tens of thousands" beat my wife to the punch of purchasing a $1000 model.  

    But even if tens of thousands beat me to the punch when I purchased the popular space gray ?Watch Sport with black band, it would still support my interpretation that Apple did not significantly ramp up manufacturing into this event.  They are building-to-order because they didn't know how many of each to make.
    The iPhone App Store was up several minutes before the Apple Store website went live I noticed. Could easily explain the instant shift to 4-6 weeks.

    We all know Apple over estimates delivery timeframes anyway. I remember my iPhone 6 was supposed to take 2 weeks after launch date but ended up coming only one day after launch. They like to under promise and over deliver.
  • Reply 49 of 362

    I've just been blown away by Apple customer service with regards the watch.

     

    I placed my order (42mm Stainless Steel, Black Classic Buckle) as soon as the iPhone App came back online, but in my panic to press the order button as quickly as possible, I forgot to apply a $350 gift card I had to the order.

     

    Just called Apple Customer Service, and the agent couldn't have been nicer or more helpful.  Applied the gift card for me, helped me with a few other things, just a great experience.

     

    I'm still hopeful I'll get my watch on April 24th.  The order was placed as quickly as possible, the time stamp on my confirmation e-mail is 00:02 and the delivery date is showing 4/24 - 5/8.

     

    Fingers crossed.

  • Reply 50 of 362
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cicconegreek View Post





    I can't believe that a colossus like Apple has not enough tine to make enough supply. Period



    Then you know nothing about manufacturing.



    When you first put a new device into production, it's not a time when throwing more money at a problem will fix it quicker.  Issues have to be worked through before you can ramp production.

  • Reply 51 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

     



    They always play it close, though as you say, it will be interesting to see if they announce any numbers, either early next week or at the earning call. I could write Tim's script right now: "We are incredibly thrilled by the fantastic response to Apple Watch."


    Exactly.  And he will say that Apple is working as hard as they can to make sure that everybody who wants one can get it as quickly as possible.

  • Reply 52 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    Leaving aside the fact that the demand for all models is not going to be homogeneous like this, I'll run with your numbers anyway...

     

    Note also that throughout this thread I have been describing my observation of 4-6 week delivery time for several popular models (and one less popular, most likely) within 30 seconds, not an "hour or so".  But I'll still run with your numbers...

     

    Your result was 500,000 units built and ready for 4-24 shipping.  That number is not far-fetched in my book, and I think it is consistent with what I'm saying here.  My suggestion is that this rapid "sell out", as it is being called by some on this thread, should not be measured against Apple iDevice launches in the past, wherein multiple millions of devices were ready to go on launch day.  This time is different for a lot of reasons, so we must be careful not to extrapolate our expectations into the mega-millions just because of long ship-date delays.  I think it is indicative of both high demand and a slower manufacturing rate/ramp than we are used to seeing from Apple (for whatever reason).




    According to another source, at least one model was available for April deliver for about six hours. Supply or demand? Whether total availability was millions or merely several hundreds of thousands, we just don't know. But my point was 500,000 units is not an unreasonable number to sell out in six hours. Granted we are all just guessing at this point, but I would guess that many at least.

  • Reply 53 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by PaulMJohnson View Post

     



    Then you know nothing about manufacturing.



    When you first put a new device into production, it's not a time when throwing more money at a problem will fix it quicker.  Issues have to be worked through before you can ramp production.


    Exactly.  Especially when you have so many models/variations.  You can't just guess and build inventory.  Tim Cook is the Attila The Hun of inventory.  He hates, hates, hates it.  So he didn't guess and build a bunch.  This is BTO all the way, folks.  At least until the statistics gather and decisions can be made on building inventory correctly.

  • Reply 54 of 362

    Then you know nothing about manufacturing.


    When you first put a new device into production, it's not a time when throwing more money at a problem will fix it quicker.  Issues have to be worked through before you can ramp production.

    No i don't. Am i supposed to? All the Apple customers should have graduated from an engineering college? It's common sense!
  • Reply 55 of 362
    tmaytmay Posts: 5,825member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post





    I agree. Apple is essentially a build to order company that maintains a very limited supply of stock on hand. I think they had a limited amount of stock ready to ship, all based on people favoriting their watches online. But the vast majority ordered today will likely need to be assembled. If Appe was transparent about this and advertised BTO, with the actual manufacturing to doorstep estimate, this frenzy today would have been completely avoided.

    Your statements makes no sense at all.

     

    Apple would be cranking out aluminum and SS cases as fast as they could produce them, and only the Edition is limited so Apple knew exactly how many would be manufactured. There isn't any downside for Apple to overbuild cases initially, nor watch crystals, be it glass or sapphire. Other than the buttons, every other component is the same. They could project billions of  dollars in parts production upfront and it wouldn't phase them, nor would large assembly lines.

     

    No, this is purely a case of production constraints, and I'd bet they have a very good handle on the product mix.

  • Reply 56 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

     



    According to another source, at least one model was available for April deliver for about six hours. Supply or demand? Whether total availability was millions or merely several hundreds of thousands, we just don't know. But my point was 500,000 units is not an unreasonable number to sell out in six hours. Granted we are all just guessing at this point, but I would guess that many at least.


    Well, if you actually read and followed my response, I went with your numbers and also concluded that 500,000 was not far-fetched, but that this was consistent with my message.  So I guess we are in agreement.

     

    Knowing how Tim Cook hates inventory, I figure Apple picked a few specific models to build enough of to ship a bevy on 4/24 (to meet the "promise", as it were) but did not try to guess the right number for the vast majority of models.  These, Apple was conservative on, because again, Cook hates inventory and there is way too little data to predict how much product to make right now.  So now we are in a build-to-order model until Apple can ramp up to meet demand and then carry on, with statistics to back them up, with ramping some inventory.  This may be several months away.

  • Reply 57 of 362



    For those saying there were watches sold out from the beginning - did you order through the website or the apple store app?  The app allowed for ordering a few minutes before the website, so I'd guess the app orders gobbled up the launch day watches. The app has been faster for ordering for the last few product launches.

  • Reply 58 of 362
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cicconegreek View Post





    No i don't. Am i supposed to? All the Apple customers should have graduated from an engineering college? It's common sense!



    If you're going to make bold statements like "I can't believe that a colossus like Apple has not enough tine to make enough supply." when you by your own admission don't understand any of the difficulties in actually making things.

     

    So, the difficulty of getting a new product to market either isn't common sense, or you don't have any common sense.

     

    Oh, and for the record, I have graduated from an engineering university and have put new products into production, so unlike you, I do know what I'm talking about.

  • Reply 59 of 362
    quinneyquinney Posts: 2,528member

    Then you know nothing about manufacturing.


    When you first put a new device into production, it's not a time when throwing more money at a problem will fix it quicker.  Issues have to be worked through before you can ramp production.

    No i don't. Am i supposed to? All the Apple customers should have graduated from an engineering college? It's common sense!

    If you don't know, then don't run your mouth about it.
  • Reply 60 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by tmay View Post

     

    Your statements makes no sense at all.

     

    Apple would be cranking out aluminum and SS cases as fast as they could produce them, and only the Edition is limited so Apple knew exactly how many would be manufactured. There isn't any downside for Apple to overbuild cases initially, nor watch crystals, be it glass or sapphire. Other than the buttons, every other component is the same. They could project billions of  dollars in parts production upfront and it wouldn't phase them, nor would large assembly lines.

     

    No, this is purely a case of production constraints, and I'd bet they have a very good handle on the product mix.


    There is absolutely, positively, a downside to Apple manufacturing a shit-ton of ?Watches in advance.  Anything not sold is called inventory, and Tim Cook hates it with a passion.  He would rather go conservative on a new product that has a dozen variations (even without straps) and then adjust and ramp build plans to match observations.  I think that is pretty reasonable.

     

    Oh, and I sincerely doubt that Apple has a good handle on "product mix" from a demand perspective.  Well, they probably do now, after last night, but they wouldn't have when manufacturing would have had to start a while ago.

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