Initial Apple Watch stock dries up in minutes, shipping times quickly jump to 4-6 weeks

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  • Reply 61 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by imacjenn View Post

     



    For those saying there were watches sold out from the beginning - did you order through the website or the apple store app?  The app allowed for ordering a few minutes before the website, so I'd guess the app orders gobbled up the launch day watches. The app has been faster for ordering for the last few product launches.


    Again, even if some thousands of orders were "gobbled up" for some models in a couple of minutes, it still points to lower total supply than we are accustomed to.  And I think that makes sense given Cook's hatred for inventory and the lack of statistics regarding which variants should be built in huge quantities and which should not.  He has the statistics now.  Let's watch the manufacturing ramp now!  

  • Reply 62 of 362
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    thompr wrote: »
    There is absolutely, positively, a downside to Apple manufacturing a shit-ton of ?Watches in advance.  Anything not sold is called inventory, and Tim Cook hates it with a passion.  He would rather go conservative on a new product that has a dozen variations (even without straps) and then adjust and ramp build plans to match observations.  I think that is pretty reasonable.

    Oh, and I sincerely doubt that Apple has a good handle on "product mix" from a demand perspective.  Well, they probably do now, after last night, but they wouldn't have when manufacturing would have had to start a while ago.

    When's the last time Apple had unsold stock? That's called not having faith.
  • Reply 63 of 362
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by imacjenn View Post

     



    For those saying there were watches sold out from the beginning - did you order through the website or the apple store app?  The app allowed for ordering a few minutes before the website, so I'd guess the app orders gobbled up the launch day watches. The app has been faster for ordering for the last few product launches.




    Yeah, that might well have been the case.

     

    I ordered using the app and had my order in within 60 seconds of it going live.  I got a 4/24 - 5/8 delivery estimate.  Out of interest, I just went on the website and put the same watch I ordered into the cart and it's now saying anticipated delivery of June.

  • Reply 64 of 362
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    There is absolutely, positively, a downside to Apple manufacturing a shit-ton of ?Watches in advance.  Anything not sold is called inventory, and Tim Cook hates it with a passion.  He would rather go conservative on a new product that has a dozen variations (even without straps) and then adjust and ramp build plans to match observations.  I think that is pretty reasonable.

     

    Oh, and I sincerely doubt that Apple has a good handle on "product mix" from a demand perspective.  Well, they probably do now, after last night, but they wouldn't have when manufacturing would have had to start a while ago.




    You are absolutely right. Apple has a well documented streamlined manufacturing process with only as many units in the pipeline as will be immediately sold. 

  • Reply 65 of 362
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

    ...  I think it is indicative of both high demand and a slower manufacturing rate/ramp than we are used to seeing from Apple (for whatever reason).

    Sure.  This is a brand new product for Apple (not the 8th release of an iPhone), and they have already shown it has quite an intricate manufacturing process.  It is small package with a lot of new technology in it, assembled in this format for the first time for production, with also an entirely new process for creating the materials and cases.  

     

    Why would anyone expect that Apple "should have no problem to make millions"?  Based on both Apple statements and rumours over the last 6 months (including the rumour on some less-than-perfect s/w for the review units), it is straight forward to see that Apple was under tight constraints for this April 24th launch.  Limited supply (meaning say 100's of thousands, or maybe a low million, count) is what should be expected - not that 5 million of various SKUs were ready to rumble with no issue.

     

    How many gen1 iPhone units were ready for launch day?  Gen1 iPads?

  • Reply 66 of 362
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by IQatEdo View Post

     

     

    Nice trolling @cicconegreek! The last 3 years, every troll claimed every new product comes with a huge delay time to create a buzz! Classic!


    A few to add to the blocked list from this thread...

  • Reply 66 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member

    Does anybody want to venture a guess as to how many ?Watch pre-orders (of all variants) will have been placed in this first weekend?  I don't know for sure that Apple will announce a figure, but what's your guess anyway?  

     

    I'll go with 2 million.

  • Reply 68 of 362



    I think you found the issue; my work email address and my work phone number are the first listings in my personal contact on my iPhone.  Apple Pay must have identified my contact and pulled those in automatically rather than using what is stored in my Apple ID account.

     

    Interesting.

  • Reply 69 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by brucemc View Post

     

    Sure.  This is a brand new product for Apple (not the 8th release of an iPhone), and they have already shown it has quite an intricate manufacturing process.  It is small package with a lot of new technology in it, assembled in this format for the first time for production, with also an entirely new process for creating the materials and cases.  

     

    Why would anyone expect that Apple "should have no problem to make millions"?  Based on both Apple statements and rumours over the last 6 months (including the rumour on some less-than-perfect s/w for the review units), it is straight forward to see that Apple was under tight constraints for this April 24th launch.  Limited supply (meaning say 100's of thousands, or maybe a low million, count) is what should be expected - not that 5 million of various SKUs were ready to rumble with no issue.

     

    How many gen1 iPhone units were ready for launch day?  Gen1 iPads?


    Indeed, although I recall that the first iPhone and iPad did not "sell out" in mere minutes.

     

    Meanwhile, we do have some folks on here that like to extrapolate based on previous launches even when details differ significantly.  My only goal in this thread was to resist some of that extrapolation.  You already understand.

  • Reply 70 of 362
    mrboba1mrboba1 Posts: 276member

    Some of you guys are glossing over one fact about the number of models:

     

    While there are 22 models, there aren't 22 watch cases. There are 4 Sports and 4 Sapphires, 38 and 42mm in regular and gray.

     

    They can slap another band on whatever version someone orders - they don't have to forecast how many of each combination they need to have in order to manufacture the actual watch. So it isn't completely a BTO outfit, because they have some sort of expectation for how many Sports they would sell vs the Sapphires.

  • Reply 71 of 362
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,921member

    It's going to be a flop, I can tell. /s

  • Reply 72 of 362
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,774member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Dr Millmoss View Post

     



    They always play it close, though as you say, it will be interesting to see if they announce any numbers, either early next week or at the earning call. I could write Tim's script right now: "We are incredibly thrilled by the fantastic response to Apple Watch."


    "...and we are hard at work to bring this fantastic, personal device to even more people that love our products, and use them to improve their lives...."

     

    I doubt any real numbers cited on the call. We *might* get some year end numbers in a few quarters.

     

    This is going to evolve in some interesting ways. Almost for sure Jony has a ver 2 Apple Watch in his lab. What goes into it, and when it rolls into production depends on how ver 1.0 goes. And what iPhone lineups look like as well.

  • Reply 73 of 362
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,921member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by AppleInsider View Post



    This situation prompted the addition of a larger facility to the company's new spaceship campus, and could have been a tip that Apple would have preferred to push the Watch debut back, but could not for logistical reasons.



    Lending credence to word of supply constraints, Apple also shipped apparently buggy versions to advance reviewers, promising that new software would address many of their issues before consumers receive the devices, an extraordinarily unusual move for the company.

     

    I sort of feel like Apple should have waited another year before launching. It all seems a bit rushed. It's not like they had any real competition for this thing. It looks like a great product, but one that's about 80-85% there. I guess iPhone was sort of the same,as it was really the 3GS or even the 4 before it was 100% as some other commenters have pointed out, so what am I bitching about really. 

  • Reply 74 of 362
    Nice marketing Apple Inc.! The last 3 years, every new product comes with a huge delay time to create a buzz! Classic!

    It amazed me that people still believe Apple has to resort to this type of stunt to sell their products. Demand has outstripped supply, simple as that.
  • Reply 75 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by mrboba1 View Post

     

    Some of you guys are glossing over one fact about the number of models:

     

    While there are 22 models, there aren't 22 watch cases. There are 4 Sports and 4 Sapphires, 38 and 42mm in regular and gray.

     

    They can slap another band on whatever version someone orders - they don't have to forecast how many of each combination they need to have in order to manufacture the actual watch. So it isn't completely a BTO outfit, because they have some sort of expectation for how many Sports they would sell vs the Sapphires.


    I'll go with that.  That's 8 variations of watch case - leaving out the Edition, which is too low volume to even enter our discussion.  (AS a shareholder, I hope I'm wrong about this!)

     

    So back to the 8 variations:  I could easily see Tim being reluctant to estimate the need for each of these without doing so in a very conservative manner.  As I have said before, and as is already known to any Apple observer, Cook detests inventory.  So this being an entirely new product category, I think Cook would estimate conservatively across most, if not all, 8 variations of it.

  • Reply 76 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    Well, if you actually read and followed my response, I went with your numbers and also concluded that 500,000 was not far-fetched, but that this was consistent with my message.  So I guess we are in agreement.

     

    Knowing how Tim Cook hates inventory, I figure Apple picked a few specific models to build enough of to ship a bevy on 4/24 (to meet the "promise", as it were) but did not try to guess the right number for the vast majority of models.  These, Apple was conservative on, because again, Cook hates inventory and there is way too little data to predict how much product to make right now.  So now we are in a build-to-order model until Apple can ramp up to meet demand and then carry on, with statistics to back them up, with ramping some inventory.  This may be several months away.




    I actually did, and what I actually said was that I could easily seem them processing 500,000 preorders in the first six hours, which actually means I think it actually could be more. We actually agree, so we actually don't need to be saying actually.

     

    ?What I don't believe is that Apple deliberately undershot their own projections of demand, this time or any other time. Supply on new product introductions is always constrained and backorders are common. This is what leads to all the conspiracy theories about how Apple constrains supply deliberately to build up excitement, a theory I don't buy. Apple can do a lot of things, but they can't simply snap their fingers and create more manufacturing capacity.

  • Reply 77 of 362
    kibitzerkibitzer Posts: 1,114member
    Aside from orders, FWIW try-on appointments in the Chicago area at this time are essentially fully booked into Saturday afternoon. Only two of the area Apple Retail Stores have the Edition model - North Michigan Avenue and Lincoln Park - presumably close to where a lot of big, big money people (or big, big spenders!) live. Looks like so far they're only scheduling try-ons through Sunday.
  • Reply 78 of 362
    thomprthompr Posts: 1,516member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by cornchip View Post

     

     

    I sort of feel like Apple should have waited another year before launching. It all seems a bit rushed. It's not like they had any real competition for this thing. It looks like a great product, but one that's about 80-85% there. I guess iPhone was sort of the same,as it was really the 3GS or even the 4 before it was 100% as some other commenters have pointed out, so what am I bitching about really. 


    I think that "80-85%" there is good for a first gen, especially when the market has long since started and you need to put your stamp on it with something that is far closer to the goal than what currently exists.  This is a good first effort, and I'll probably be a buyer of gen 2 also next year.  If it is significantly better (like iPhone and iPad were relative to their first gens) then I will buy a more expensive one.

  • Reply 79 of 362
    dr millmossdr millmoss Posts: 5,403member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by eightzero View Post

     

    "...and we are hard at work to bring this fantastic, personal device to even more people that love our products, and use them to improve their lives...."

     

    I doubt any real numbers cited on the call. We *might* get some year end numbers in a few quarters.

     

    This is going to evolve in some interesting ways. Almost for sure Jony has a ver 2 Apple Watch in his lab. What goes into it, and when it rolls into production depends on how ver 1.0 goes. And what iPhone lineups look like as well.




    No matter what else he says, we can count on a few "incredibles" and "fantastics." Get the man a thesaurus already.

  • Reply 80 of 362
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    mac_128 wrote: »
    I agree. Apple is essentially a build to order company that maintains a very limited supply of stock on hand. I think they had a limited amount of stock ready to ship, all based on people favoriting their watches online. But the vast majority ordered today will likely need to be assembled. If Appe was transparent about this and advertised BTO, with the actual manufacturing to doorstep estimate, this frenzy today would have been completely avoided.

    You are making shit up out of your addled imagination, asserting things without a shred of evidence, and using "logic" that ignores simpler possibilities.

    How about this? The Watch is a new threshold in miniaturization, complexity and design, using processes never brought to mass scale before, a supply-chain mare's nest like no other, assembled by a contract firm with no previous experience with such a device, and so on.

    In other words none of us have any idea why supplies do not meet demand at this point.
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