Demand is certainly high, but not high enough to exhaust 1-2 million units in under 5 minutes. That's what I observed online. Literally, within mere minutes (the model I purchased was at 4-6 weeks within 30 seconds, so I checked others too) the majority of models got knocked out of 4/24 delivery and into 4-6 weeks. No way they moved that many in 5 minutes. So I doubt that Apple had anywhere near that number ready to go, for whatever reason other folks want to dream up.
Ok. Well I don't know because I live in a tier 2 country so I didn't even try. You might be right but here's a counter argument. Let's go with the lower of my estimate. 1 million.
That's 1 million divided by each model across every tier 1 country. Could that sell out in 5 minutes?
( and you may have missed it but people have been saying they had an hour or two on the Apple Store app before the website got its boots on).
Sure, it's fun to screw analysts, but what I really meant was this: if you don't bury the ?Watch category in some larger (and preferably ambiguous) category, the outsized margins associated with ?Watch Edition would make it possible to reverse-engineer the number of units. If that number gets out and it is not small"ish", the Edition customers are not going to be happy. Of course, the pundits will attempt to reverse engineer this number anyway, and they may have some success. But that's completely different from a public acknowledgement from Apple or even a readily deduced fact.
Apple are burying all watch sales in some category or other. I don't think anybody is going to work it out.
Here's the way that I suspect that Jeff Williams has set up production for the sport and the watch:
There are 4 case styles x 2 sizes == 8 case SKUs:
al silver x2
al space gray x2
ss silver x2
ss space black x2
There are some large number of case/size/band combos ...
Pre 4//10 -- Based on forecast demand, case SKUs were assembled and sport/watch assembly stations were setup -- ranging from:
a single case SKU (style and size) and a single band SKU
a single case SKU (style and size) and multiple band SKUs
multiples of these as, needed
4/10-4/24 As preorders are received the assembly, stations are adjusted to satisfy actual demand.
Orders are assembled according to actual demand (assembled-to-order), combining a case SKU and a band SKU -- then off to packaging and shipping ...
Manufacture of case shells and assembly of case SKUs are adjusted to reflect actual demand.
So ... A pre-order received on day 1-4, could be assembled, packaged, preped for shipping on day 2-5, and batch-held by destination (for efficient shipping).
Allowing for problems (day 6-10) they could satisfy most day 1-4 preorders by day 10 -- and ship 4/14.
Sounds reasonable, but the conclusion of the story didn't happen. It turns out that a pre-order received in minute 5 (and later) was pushed out to 4-6 weeks. How do we reconcile this?
My hunch is that certain case colors (space gray and space black) are more difficult to make / have lower yields ... and that they offered these in fewer combinations -- and these were in popular demand ... dark case for a black screen ...
And, they totally underestimated day 1 orders -- or are manufacturing constrained -- or both!
Ok. Well I don't know because I live in a tier 2 country so I didn't even try. You might be right but here's a counter argument. Let's go with the lower of my estimate. 1 million.
That's 1 million divided by each model across every tier 1 country. Could that sell out in 5 minutes?
( and you may have missed it but people have been saying they had an hour or two on the Apple Store app before the website got its boots on).
I'm not buying it... too fast of a rate. Even the biggest-baddest launch ever (iPhone 6) took 3 days to sell 10 million. I know the iPhone 6 sales profile was probably front loaded, but not to that extreme. No way the watch did it in so fast.
No. People had a minute or two on the AppleStore app before the website got its boots on. The website got up at 12:03 rather than 12:01 PDT.
My hunch is that certain case colors (space gray and space black) are more difficult to make / have lower yields ... and that they offered these in fewer combinations -- and these were in popular demand ... dark case for a black screen ...
And, they totally underestimated day 1 orders -- or are manufacturing constrained -- or both!
When the one I wanted was already at 4-6 weeks 30 seconds after the website came back online (potentially 2 minutes after the AppStore App was working) I completed my transaction and then went through all of the ?Watch Sport models and some of the ?Watch models. In and out quickly just to see the delivery estimate. Within those first however many minutes most of the models I observed were at 4-6 weeks.
Incredible.
I think that your last sentence is the right answer.
My hunch is that certain case colors (space gray and space black) are more difficult to make / have lower yields ... and that they offered these in fewer combinations -- and these were in popular demand ... dark case for a black screen ...
And now you know why there aren't any gold anodized Sport watches to go with that gold iPhone. Imagine if they had to add one more case finish to this lineup. I'm also assuming we'll see some kind of gold clad watch on the stainless line, since there's a lot of people who don't wear silver jewelry or accessories.
Demand is certainly high, but not high enough to exhaust 1-2 million units in under 5 minutes. That's what I observed online. Literally, within mere minutes (the model I purchased was at 4-6 weeks within 30 seconds, so I checked others too) the majority of models got knocked out of 4/24 delivery and into 4-6 weeks. No way they moved that many in 5 minutes. So I doubt that Apple had anywhere near that number ready to go, for whatever reason other folks want to dream up.
It wasn't five minutes. Some models were available for preordering as much as six hours later. I placed my successful preorder at 12:06 AM PDT.
I ordered 5 (separate orders) between 12:16 PM PDT and 12:29 PM PDT. The first and last were: 3/24 - 5/8 ... The 3 others were 4-6 weeks.
Here's the last:
At 12: 29 PM PDT
Apple store Order Number: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx | Ordered on Apr 10, 2015
Thank you for your order.
We'll let you know when your items are on their way.
Items to be Shipped
Shipment 1 Delivers: 4/24-5/8 by Standard Shipping
Apple Watch Sport 38mm Silver Aluminum Case with White Sport Band
My hunch is that certain case colors (space gray and space black) are more difficult to make / have lower yields ... and that they offered these in fewer combinations -- and these were in popular demand ... dark case for a black screen ...
And, they totally underestimated day 1 orders -- or are manufacturing constrained -- or both!
When the one I wanted was already at 4-6 weeks 30 seconds after the website came back online (potentially 2 minutes after the AppStore App was working) I completed my transaction and then went through all of the ?Watch Sport models and some of the ?Watch models. In and out quickly just to see the delivery estimate. Within those first however many minutes most of the models I observed were at 4-6 weeks.
Incredible.
I think that your last sentence is the right answer.
Since it's all speculation ... what if they had 2 million -- or even 1 million ... and sold out within 6 hours ...
Since it's all speculation ... what if they had 2 million -- or even 1 million ... and sold out within 6 hours ...
However many ?Watches Apple actually had built and ready to go - and I doubt it was nearly so many based on our joint observations here - I believe that there is a very good chance that the total orders have exceeded 1 million at this point and perhaps might even exceed 2 million before the end of this weekend. Happy share owner here.
I didn't say all models were out in 5 minutes, just that a majority of them were. Well, I probably shouldn't really use the word "majority", because I didn't look at them all. This is what I did: within 30 seconds of the Apple Store reopening, I was at the order page specific to the watch I wanted, and the delivery time was already at 4-6 weeks. I was shocked by this, but finished the order anyway. Didn't take more than another minute. Then, because I was amazed, I spent the next several minutes marching through all of the ?Watch Sport and some of the ?Watch models. In and out took no time at all for each model. The majority of the ones that I looked at were already in the 4-6 week category. And these would have been the most popular ones (the lower priced ones).
So, no. I'm not believing that Apple had 1 million ?Watches ready to go coming into this event.
Which was your model, if you don't mind my asking?
Well, if you're saying it's impossible for Apple to have recorded 1 million+ preorders because some of the models sold out in a matter of minutes, then I can see a flaw in that logic. Some report ordering well beyond a few minutes into the preorder period, even hours later. It just depended on the model you were after.
I'm not buying it... too fast of a rate. Even the biggest-baddest launch ever (iPhone 6) took 3 days to sell 10 million. I know the iPhone 6 sales profile was probably front loaded, but not to that extreme. No way the watch did it in so fast.
No. People had a minute or two on the AppleStore app before the website got its boots on. The website got up at 12:03 rather than 12:01 PDT.
The Apple Store app wasn't active at 12:01. It was a couple minutes later. Probably it all got up and running at the same time. The app was probably faster and smoother.
Well, if you're saying it's impossible for Apple to have recorded 1+ million preorders because some of the models sold out in a matter of minutes, then I can see a flaw in that logic. Some report ordering well beyond a few minutes into the preorder period, some hours later. It just depended on the model you were after.
I order the 42mm with the Milanese Loop.
I am saying only that I don't believe Apple had over 1+ million watches ready to go for shipment on 4/24 based on the rate at which supply was exhausted for the most popular models. Even if one assumes that the other models all had the same allocation but were just exhausted at a slower rate, I'm not inclined to get much past the 500,000 mark that you proposed as a lower bound earlier. I would make that my upper bound, and here's why: a friend of mine also began his ordering process at 12:01 as did I, but he used the AppleStore App and got in immediately (whereas the website came up 2 minutes late). He ordered the space grey ?Watch Sport, with black band. Even he received a ship time of 4-6 weeks (as did I, two minutes later via the Website). There are all kinds of reasons why that could have happened, but I'm far more inclined to believe that supply for that model was severely constrained - along with most of the other models too - than I am to believe that the ?Watch series just put the iPhone 6 to shame in terms of sales rate. Now, maybe some models had more supply than others, for a variety of reasons, but it just makes more sense to me that the entire ?Watch lineup was supply limited. The models that took longer to sell out were simply the less popular of the bunch.
I completely believe that the total number of orders (including those like mine that ship in 4-6 weeks and all of these others that are now into June and July) could very well be on their way to 2 million.
Doesn't make sense to me. Tim Cook HATES shortages, HATES missing sales, more than he hates inventory, as any sensible COO/CEO would, and he is a sensible man.
But with a totally new product line if he got the vibe all the sales forecasts were just WAG's, his caution might easily kick in to avoid inventory pileup.
And how does he miss sales? Just because my selection isn't arriving until June hasn't even remotely driven me to run out and buy another Rolex... nor a Fitbit instead.
The Apple Store app wasn't active at 12:01. It was a couple minutes later. Probably it all got up and running at the same time. The app was probably faster and smoother.
My friend was on the phone with me and reporting his progress. He was trying to connect using the AppleStore App on an iPad. I was on my computer with three different browsers open (Chrome, Firefox, Safari) and repeatedly hitting refresh in round robin fashion.
I don't know precisely what time it was when he got in using the app, but I know it was at least a minute (perhaps two) before my browser(s) made the connection. He had completed his order before I even got in. And yet... 4-6 weeks for him as well.
Other people in this thread have reported the same thing, although I don't know how they observed it.
And besides, let not split hairs here. Do you really believe that Apple sold 1 million units, or even a decent sized fraction of that, in the few minutes it took to deplete the initial stock for so many models? (Note the headline of this article; it isn't wrong.) Even accounting for some models that took a bit longer, Apple still would have had to move several hundred thousand in just minutes. That's way too fast of a rate. It just doesn't add up.
But with a totally new product line if he got the vibe all the sales forecasts were just WAG's, his caution might easily kick in to avoid inventory pileup.
And how does he miss sales? Just because my selection isn't arriving until June hasn't even remotely driven me to run out and buy another Rolex... nor a Fitbit instead.
You are right. Tim knows he's not missing out on these sales. I'm sure he's moving Heaven and Earth to ramp up, now that he sees the real data, but I think it's pretty clear that this was an under-stock condition.
My friend was on the phone with me and reporting his progress. He was trying to connect using the AppleStore App on an iPad. I was on my computer with three different browsers open (Chrome, Firefox, Safari) and repeatedly hitting refresh in round robin fashion.
I don't know precisely what time it was when he got in using the app, but I know it was at least a minute (perhaps two) before my browser(s) made the connection. He had completed his order before I even got in. And yet... 4-6 weeks for him as well.
Other people in this thread have reported the same thing, although I don't know how they observed it.
And besides, let not split hairs here. Do you really believe that Apple sold 1 million units, or even a decent sized fraction of that, in the few minutes it took to deplete the initial stock for so many models? (Note the headline of this article; it isn't wrong.) Even accounting for some models that took a bit longer, Apple still would have had to move several hundred thousand in just minutes. That's way too fast of a rate. It just doesn't add up.
I am enjoying this debate because it's argument on facts ( or as much as we know) not ideology and I am coming around to your position but ...
One last attempt to support an initial inventory of 1M.
Apple sells most iPhones abroad. I believe it's 70% or so. I assume that the ratio of tier 1 countries is similar so that would - if they assumed the watch would match this distribution - leave the U.S. with 300k watches.
Tim knows he's not missing out on these sales. I'm sure he's moving Heaven and Earth to ramp up, now that he sees the real data, but I think it's pretty clear that this was an under-stock condition.
Exactly. And people don't seem to understand that stockpiling inventory has a cost -- both to move them into it, the rent on it, and then move them out for distribution. Much easier to move them once from the manufacturing arm directly into the distribution arm. This has been Apple's model for many years now, and I don't see them altering it for a product launch.
I am saying only that I don't believe Apple had over 1+ million watches ready to go for shipment on 4/24 based on the rate at which supply was exhausted for the most popular models. Even if one assumes that the other models all had the same allocation but were just exhausted at a slower rate, I'm not inclined to get much past the 500,000 mark that you proposed as a lower bound earlier. I would make that my upper bound, and here's why: a friend of mine also began his ordering process at 12:01 as did I, but he used the AppleStore App and got in immediately (whereas the website came up 2 minutes late). He ordered the space grey ?Watch Sport, with black band. Even he received a ship time of 4-6 weeks (as did I, two minutes later via the Website). There are all kinds of reasons why that could have happened, but I'm far more inclined to believe that supply for that model was severely constrained - along with most of the other models too - than I am to believe that the ?Watch series just put the iPhone 6 to shame in terms of sales rate. Now, maybe some models had more supply than others, for a variety of reasons, but it just makes more sense to me that the entire ?Watch lineup was supply limited. The models that took longer to sell out were simply the less popular of the bunch.
I completely believe that the total number of orders (including those like mine that ship in 4-6 weeks and all of these others that are now into June and July) could very well be on their way to 2 million.
Just the one point here, something I've mentioned already: the Apple Store app was not providing access at 12:01 AM, for me at least. It was a couple of minutes later. So if users of the app got any ordering advantage over the web site it was because the app is faster in loading the pertinent data. I'd also favorited the models I was considering ahead of time. Whether that gave me a meaningful advantage I know not (any more than I know how many total units Apple had available for preorder).
Comments
oh so you used it? you havent? then how do you know its janky?
Ok. Well I don't know because I live in a tier 2 country so I didn't even try. You might be right but here's a counter argument. Let's go with the lower of my estimate. 1 million.
That's 1 million divided by each model across every tier 1 country. Could that sell out in 5 minutes?
( and you may have missed it but people have been saying they had an hour or two on the Apple Store app before the website got its boots on).
Apple are burying all watch sales in some category or other. I don't think anybody is going to work it out.
My hunch is that certain case colors (space gray and space black) are more difficult to make / have lower yields ... and that they offered these in fewer combinations -- and these were in popular demand ... dark case for a black screen ...
And, they totally underestimated day 1 orders -- or are manufacturing constrained -- or both!
Ok. Well I don't know because I live in a tier 2 country so I didn't even try. You might be right but here's a counter argument. Let's go with the lower of my estimate. 1 million.
That's 1 million divided by each model across every tier 1 country. Could that sell out in 5 minutes?
( and you may have missed it but people have been saying they had an hour or two on the Apple Store app before the website got its boots on).
I'm not buying it... too fast of a rate. Even the biggest-baddest launch ever (iPhone 6) took 3 days to sell 10 million. I know the iPhone 6 sales profile was probably front loaded, but not to that extreme. No way the watch did it in so fast.
No. People had a minute or two on the AppleStore app before the website got its boots on. The website got up at 12:03 rather than 12:01 PDT.
My hunch is that certain case colors (space gray and space black) are more difficult to make / have lower yields ... and that they offered these in fewer combinations -- and these were in popular demand ... dark case for a black screen ...
And, they totally underestimated day 1 orders -- or are manufacturing constrained -- or both!
When the one I wanted was already at 4-6 weeks 30 seconds after the website came back online (potentially 2 minutes after the AppStore App was working) I completed my transaction and then went through all of the ?Watch Sport models and some of the ?Watch models. In and out quickly just to see the delivery estimate. Within those first however many minutes most of the models I observed were at 4-6 weeks.
Incredible.
I think that your last sentence is the right answer.
My hunch is that certain case colors (space gray and space black) are more difficult to make / have lower yields ... and that they offered these in fewer combinations -- and these were in popular demand ... dark case for a black screen ...
And now you know why there aren't any gold anodized Sport watches to go with that gold iPhone. Imagine if they had to add one more case finish to this lineup. I'm also assuming we'll see some kind of gold clad watch on the stainless line, since there's a lot of people who don't wear silver jewelry or accessories.
I ordered 5 (separate orders) between 12:16 PM PDT and 12:29 PM PDT. The first and last were: 3/24 - 5/8 ... The 3 others were 4-6 weeks.
Here's the last:
At 12: 29 PM PDT
Apple store Order Number: xxxxxxxxxxxxxxx | Ordered on Apr 10, 2015
Thank you for your order.
We'll let you know when your items are on their way.
Items to be Shipped
Shipment 1 Delivers: 4/24-5/8 by Standard Shipping
Apple Watch Sport 38mm Silver Aluminum Case with White Sport Band
$349.00
Since it's all speculation ... what if they had 2 million -- or even 1 million ... and sold out within 6 hours ...
Since it's all speculation ... what if they had 2 million -- or even 1 million ... and sold out within 6 hours ...
However many ?Watches Apple actually had built and ready to go - and I doubt it was nearly so many based on our joint observations here - I believe that there is a very good chance that the total orders have exceeded 1 million at this point and perhaps might even exceed 2 million before the end of this weekend. Happy share owner here.
I didn't say all models were out in 5 minutes, just that a majority of them were. Well, I probably shouldn't really use the word "majority", because I didn't look at them all. This is what I did: within 30 seconds of the Apple Store reopening, I was at the order page specific to the watch I wanted, and the delivery time was already at 4-6 weeks. I was shocked by this, but finished the order anyway. Didn't take more than another minute. Then, because I was amazed, I spent the next several minutes marching through all of the ?Watch Sport and some of the ?Watch models. In and out took no time at all for each model. The majority of the ones that I looked at were already in the 4-6 week category. And these would have been the most popular ones (the lower priced ones).
So, no. I'm not believing that Apple had 1 million ?Watches ready to go coming into this event.
Which was your model, if you don't mind my asking?
Well, if you're saying it's impossible for Apple to have recorded 1 million+ preorders because some of the models sold out in a matter of minutes, then I can see a flaw in that logic. Some report ordering well beyond a few minutes into the preorder period, even hours later. It just depended on the model you were after.
I ordered the 42mm with the Milanese Loop.
I'm not buying it... too fast of a rate. Even the biggest-baddest launch ever (iPhone 6) took 3 days to sell 10 million. I know the iPhone 6 sales profile was probably front loaded, but not to that extreme. No way the watch did it in so fast.
No. People had a minute or two on the AppleStore app before the website got its boots on. The website got up at 12:03 rather than 12:01 PDT.
The Apple Store app wasn't active at 12:01. It was a couple minutes later. Probably it all got up and running at the same time. The app was probably faster and smoother.
Well, if you're saying it's impossible for Apple to have recorded 1+ million preorders because some of the models sold out in a matter of minutes, then I can see a flaw in that logic. Some report ordering well beyond a few minutes into the preorder period, some hours later. It just depended on the model you were after.
I order the 42mm with the Milanese Loop.
I am saying only that I don't believe Apple had over 1+ million watches ready to go for shipment on 4/24 based on the rate at which supply was exhausted for the most popular models. Even if one assumes that the other models all had the same allocation but were just exhausted at a slower rate, I'm not inclined to get much past the 500,000 mark that you proposed as a lower bound earlier. I would make that my upper bound, and here's why: a friend of mine also began his ordering process at 12:01 as did I, but he used the AppleStore App and got in immediately (whereas the website came up 2 minutes late). He ordered the space grey ?Watch Sport, with black band. Even he received a ship time of 4-6 weeks (as did I, two minutes later via the Website). There are all kinds of reasons why that could have happened, but I'm far more inclined to believe that supply for that model was severely constrained - along with most of the other models too - than I am to believe that the ?Watch series just put the iPhone 6 to shame in terms of sales rate. Now, maybe some models had more supply than others, for a variety of reasons, but it just makes more sense to me that the entire ?Watch lineup was supply limited. The models that took longer to sell out were simply the less popular of the bunch.
I completely believe that the total number of orders (including those like mine that ship in 4-6 weeks and all of these others that are now into June and July) could very well be on their way to 2 million.
Doesn't make sense to me. Tim Cook HATES shortages, HATES missing sales, more than he hates inventory, as any sensible COO/CEO would, and he is a sensible man.
But with a totally new product line if he got the vibe all the sales forecasts were just WAG's, his caution might easily kick in to avoid inventory pileup.
And how does he miss sales? Just because my selection isn't arriving until June hasn't even remotely driven me to run out and buy another Rolex... nor a Fitbit instead.
The Apple Store app wasn't active at 12:01. It was a couple minutes later. Probably it all got up and running at the same time. The app was probably faster and smoother.
My friend was on the phone with me and reporting his progress. He was trying to connect using the AppleStore App on an iPad. I was on my computer with three different browsers open (Chrome, Firefox, Safari) and repeatedly hitting refresh in round robin fashion.
I don't know precisely what time it was when he got in using the app, but I know it was at least a minute (perhaps two) before my browser(s) made the connection. He had completed his order before I even got in. And yet... 4-6 weeks for him as well.
Other people in this thread have reported the same thing, although I don't know how they observed it.
And besides, let not split hairs here. Do you really believe that Apple sold 1 million units, or even a decent sized fraction of that, in the few minutes it took to deplete the initial stock for so many models? (Note the headline of this article; it isn't wrong.) Even accounting for some models that took a bit longer, Apple still would have had to move several hundred thousand in just minutes. That's way too fast of a rate. It just doesn't add up.
But with a totally new product line if he got the vibe all the sales forecasts were just WAG's, his caution might easily kick in to avoid inventory pileup.
And how does he miss sales? Just because my selection isn't arriving until June hasn't even remotely driven me to run out and buy another Rolex... nor a Fitbit instead.
You are right. Tim knows he's not missing out on these sales. I'm sure he's moving Heaven and Earth to ramp up, now that he sees the real data, but I think it's pretty clear that this was an under-stock condition.
I am enjoying this debate because it's argument on facts ( or as much as we know) not ideology and I am coming around to your position but ...
One last attempt to support an initial inventory of 1M.
Apple sells most iPhones abroad. I believe it's 70% or so. I assume that the ratio of tier 1 countries is similar so that would - if they assumed the watch would match this distribution - leave the U.S. with 300k watches.
Could they sell out of that in 5-10 minutes?
Tim knows he's not missing out on these sales. I'm sure he's moving Heaven and Earth to ramp up, now that he sees the real data, but I think it's pretty clear that this was an under-stock condition.
Exactly. And people don't seem to understand that stockpiling inventory has a cost -- both to move them into it, the rent on it, and then move them out for distribution. Much easier to move them once from the manufacturing arm directly into the distribution arm. This has been Apple's model for many years now, and I don't see them altering it for a product launch.
I would have liked - harder to make technologically for a electronic product - but harder for copycats - and true to the form and past
I am saying only that I don't believe Apple had over 1+ million watches ready to go for shipment on 4/24 based on the rate at which supply was exhausted for the most popular models. Even if one assumes that the other models all had the same allocation but were just exhausted at a slower rate, I'm not inclined to get much past the 500,000 mark that you proposed as a lower bound earlier. I would make that my upper bound, and here's why: a friend of mine also began his ordering process at 12:01 as did I, but he used the AppleStore App and got in immediately (whereas the website came up 2 minutes late). He ordered the space grey ?Watch Sport, with black band. Even he received a ship time of 4-6 weeks (as did I, two minutes later via the Website). There are all kinds of reasons why that could have happened, but I'm far more inclined to believe that supply for that model was severely constrained - along with most of the other models too - than I am to believe that the ?Watch series just put the iPhone 6 to shame in terms of sales rate. Now, maybe some models had more supply than others, for a variety of reasons, but it just makes more sense to me that the entire ?Watch lineup was supply limited. The models that took longer to sell out were simply the less popular of the bunch.
I completely believe that the total number of orders (including those like mine that ship in 4-6 weeks and all of these others that are now into June and July) could very well be on their way to 2 million.
Just the one point here, something I've mentioned already: the Apple Store app was not providing access at 12:01 AM, for me at least. It was a couple of minutes later. So if users of the app got any ordering advantage over the web site it was because the app is faster in loading the pertinent data. I'd also favorited the models I was considering ahead of time. Whether that gave me a meaningful advantage I know not (any more than I know how many total units Apple had available for preorder).