Initial Apple Watch stock dries up in minutes, shipping times quickly jump to 4-6 weeks

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  • Reply 181 of 362
    jax44jax44 Posts: 79member
    I got my confirmation email at 12:02 PST.

    42 mm SS with black Sport band.
    The Apple Store app wasn't active at 12:01. It was a couple minutes later. Probably it all got up and running at the same time. The app was probably faster and smoother.
  • Reply 182 of 362
    lightknightlightknight Posts: 2,312member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    I didn't say all models were out in 5 minutes, just that a majority of them were.  Well, I probably shouldn't really use the word "majority", because I didn't look at them all.  This is what I did:  within 30 seconds of the Apple Store reopening, I was at the order page specific to the watch I wanted, and the delivery time was already at 4-6 weeks.  I was shocked by this, but finished the order anyway.  Didn't take more than another minute.  Then, because I was amazed, I spent the next several minutes marching through all of the ?Watch Sport and some of the ?Watch models.  In and out took no time at all for each model.  The majority of the ones that I looked at were already in the 4-6 week category.  And these would have been the most popular ones (the lower priced ones).

     

    So, no.  I'm not believing that Apple had 1 million ?Watches ready to go coming into this event.

     

    Which was your model, if you don't mind my asking?  




    For me, it was the 750€ 38mm link mail, and it took almost 10 hours to go to 4-6 weeks (but I got mine at opening time using the app). 

    The 42mm I was hesitating with got into "June" territory in two hours in my country though.

    It would be awesome to know what versions sold where, but indeed I'd understand apple hiding this data for competitive reasons.

  • Reply 183 of 362
    flaneurflaneur Posts: 4,526member
    mac_128 wrote: »
    Exactly. And people don't seem to understand that stockpiling inventory has a cost -- both to move them into it, the rent on it, and then move them out for distribution. Much easier to move them once from the manufacturing arm directly into the distribution arm. This has been Apple's model for many years now, and I don't see them altering it for a product launch.

    I understand that inventory has a cost, but it's nothing compared to the cost of pissing off and disappointing a couple of million customers, plus having them question your competence and your sense of values, both of which are implicit as hell in you guys' Attila the Hun inventory model.

    How much does it cost in goodwill or PR to save having to add one or two buildings to do some rational storage and sorting? That's the question. You all are calling Cook and Williams incompetent without realizing it.

    Inventory control applies much more to a production process that is up and running smoothly, not to the launch of a new product that you are betting the future of the company and the industry on.
  • Reply 184 of 362
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,410member

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Mac_128 View Post

     

    Exactly. And people don't seem to understand that stockpiling inventory has a cost -- both to move them into it, the rent on it, and then move them out for distribution. Much easier to move them once from the manufacturing arm directly into the distribution arm. This has been Apple's model for many years now, and I don't see them altering it for a product launch.


    Funny, I remember a article on MacRumors about a 777 Captain flying 195,000 iPhones 6's to Anchorage. It weighed 228,000 pounds. 

     

    Three flights, overnight from China would easily provide 500,000 watches to the FedEx/ UPS distribution channel, and be out to customers in less than a few days.

     

    You and thumpr have no clue about production if you think storing inventory in China prior to a launch is an issue; a 5000 sq foot warehouse easier handle 500,000 units.

     

    Clueless you are.

  • Reply 185 of 362
    tmaytmay Posts: 6,410member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by thompr View Post

     

    You are right.  Tim knows he's not missing out on these sales.  I'm sure he's moving Heaven and Earth to ramp up, now that he sees the real data, but I think it's pretty clear that this was an under-stock condition.


    If this is the case, it is a massive failure; I don't actually believe that this is the case, but we will almost certainly never know.

  • Reply 186 of 362
    asdasd wrote: »
    Apple are burying all watch sales in some category or other. I don't think anybody is going to work it out.

    From where are you pulling this out?
  • Reply 187 of 362
    mechanicmechanic Posts: 805member

    Lol order my space grey aluminum 2 mins after 1200 pacific time and its 4 to 6 weeks expected delivery date.

  • Reply 188 of 362
    mechanic wrote: »
    Lol order my space grey aluminum 2 mins after 1200 pacific time and its 4 to 6 weeks expected delivery date.

    I got my order in for the 38" Black/Black SS between 3:01 and 3:02 (EDT) and it said June. I changed it to regular SS with Milanese Loop, and got 4/24.
  • Reply 189 of 362
    samno wrote: »
    I would have liked - harder to make technologically for a electronic product - but harder for copycats - and true to the form and past

    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="57750" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/57750/width/350/height/700/flags/LL" style="; width: 350px; height: 197px">

    New tech dictates new form ...

    How do you scroll a list of say 5-10 Credit cards for Apple Pay ... wheel of fortune?
  • Reply 190 of 362
    cornchipcornchip Posts: 1,953member
    thompr wrote: »
    I think that "80-85%" there is good for a first gen, especially when the market has long since started and you need to put your stamp on it with something that is far closer to the goal than what currently exists.  This is a good first effort, and I'll probably be a buyer of gen 2 also next year.  If it is significantly better (like iPhone and iPad were relative to their first gens) then I will buy a more expensive one.

    rayz wrote: »

    A product is never 100% ready, so waiting another year is simply depriving themselves of a huge amount of usage feedback that can be used to improved the next version. 

    This is why I never understand people who hold off upgrading machines for years while they're waiting for some magical thing to be invented  that will persuade them to buy.

    No, I totally agree, which is why I said iPhone felt similar. I went to ID school, and I was freaking out about my senior project and one of my classmates, an Indian mechanical engineer told me to just get it done even though I wasn't 100% satisfied with it. "Every product is a prototype man" he said. And it clicked. He was right. And so are you guys. I'm sure Jony & team probably wish they could have gotten a week battery life too. I won't be able to justify an Apple watch until AW4 anyway, so, good for me? :))
  • Reply 191 of 362
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    New tech dictates new form ...

    How do you scroll a list of say 5-10 Credit cards for Apple Pay ... wheel of fortune?
    Perhaps take a page from Apple's OS.

    1000


    New tech indeed dictates new form ... So I don't really see why the watch should operate like a mini iPhone. Apple seems to be embracing round at least on the software side of things. I think we'll find when this OS matures the preconceived notions that text can only be displayed in a box is antiquated, among other things.

    400 700
  • Reply 192 of 362
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    From where are you pulling this out?

    Tell you what. I'll be your go to guy on "knowing stuff". You don't bother breaking out Google or anything.

    http://iphone.appleinsider.com/articles/14/10/20/apple-may-not-break-out-apple-watch-ipod-and-retail-sales-starting-q1-2015
  • Reply 193 of 362
    asdasdasdasd Posts: 5,686member
    tmay wrote: »
    Funny, I remember a article on MacRumors about a 777 Captain flying 195,000 iPhones 6's to Anchorage. It weighed 228,000 pounds. 

    Three flights, overnight from China would easily provide 500,000 watches to the FedEx/ UPS distribution channel, and be out to customers in less than a few days.

    You and thumpr have no clue about production if you think storing inventory in China prior to a launch is an issue; a 5000 sq foot warehouse easier handle 500,000 units.

    Clueless you are.

    That's not the reason. Apple sells to channel. If it overestimates it's sales in any quarter and enters the next quarter with a stuffed channel sales look they collapse in that quarter.
  • Reply 194 of 362
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    I didn't use the word stunt, but marketing

    what you're describing isn't marketing.
  • Reply 195 of 362
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    mac_128 wrote: »
    No, I'm speculating based on Apple's well documented business practices. Google "Apple supply chain" and educate yourself.

    In 2012 it was reported that Apple turns over its entire inventory every 5 days. 
    http://appleinsider.com/articles/12/05/31/apple_turns_over_entire_inventory_every_five_days

    They are continually ranked as the best in the world at this. Manufacturing a ton of inventory to sit around in warehouses is not their M.O.

    despite that, they are still not a BTO company which is what you claim. having a tight leash on JIT inventory doesn't make their business model BTO. it isn't, and that's patently false. what happened here was high demand and insufficient supply. just like the iPhone launches. it's nothing new for an apple product launch -- they make the most popular items on earth. what is new is the uncertainty over which SKUs would be needed in which quantities.
  • Reply 196 of 362
    nolamacguynolamacguy Posts: 4,758member
    samno wrote: »
    I would have liked - harder to make technologically for a electronic product - but harder for copycats - and true to the form and past

    <img alt="" class="lightbox-enabled" data-id="57750" data-type="61" src="http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/57750/width/350/height/700/flags/LL" style="; width: 350px; height: 197px">

    a round digital watch isn't being true to the form. the form of round watches is due to the radial movement of rotating mechanical arms. these aren't doing that. further, these are displaying textual content and lists, which as a society we've already established works best in a rectangular shape (you don't have a round TV set, do you?). thus being true to form for this product means a rectangle display.
  • Reply 197 of 362
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    nolamacguy wrote: »
    they are still not a BTO company which is what you claim. having a tight leash on JIT inventory doesn't make their business model BTO. it isn't, and that's patently false.
    Nope, this is what I likened Apple's tight control of the supply chain to ...:
    Judging by these delays, I'm more inclined to believe that Apple has chosen a more build to order model, than massive sales.

    Clearly not a claim that they were now a BTO company.
  • Reply 198 of 362
    I also ordered the Sport Watch as soon as the store went live - 4-6 weeks delivery for me too. I don't think Apple had proper stock levels on hand for April 24th availability.
  • Reply 199 of 362
    mac_128 wrote: »
    New tech dictates new form ...

    How do you scroll a list of say 5-10 Credit cards for Apple Pay ... wheel of fortune?
    Perhaps take a page from Apple's OS.

    1000


    New tech indeed dictates new form ... So I don't really see why the watch should operate like a mini iPhone. Apple seems to be embracing round at least on the software side of things. I think we'll find when this OS matures the preconceived notions that text can only be displayed in a box is antiquated, among other things.

    400 700

    I understand that ... but, say, you have to chose among several passes, credit cards, suggested answers to a notification, options ... For some things its hard to beat a scrolling list -- and, AFAIK, that's best done in a square format (you'd lose too much display space by imposing a round format).
  • Reply 200 of 362
    mac_128 wrote: »
    nolamacguy wrote: »
    they are still not a BTO company which is what you claim. having a tight leash on JIT inventory doesn't make their business model BTO. it isn't, and that's patently false.
    Nope, this is what I likened Apple's tight control of the supply chain to ...:
    Judging by these delays, I'm more inclined to believe that Apple has chosen a more build to order model, than massive sales.

    Clearly not a claim that they were now a BTO company.

    I think that, for the Apple Watch product line, they may be an ATO (assemble-to-order) company -- at least for the initial release, until they get a demand history.

    Likely. in the next few months they will tweak the case/band combinations to have off-the-shelf (standard stock) SKUs and ATO SKUs.
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