When the original iPhone launched there were plenty of people who thought that selling a "text and messaging" phone without a dedicated keyboard was a mistake. They were wrong because they were judging a future facing product using a backwards looking lens. The Apple Phone will likely do the same for voice first integration and truly personal computing in a similar way that the iPhone did for phones. Until you're forced to break from the past you seldom ever will, which is why Apple doesn't ask "us" what we want for future products. The pull of the past is very difficult for most people to overcome because we're genetically programmed to learn from our past experiences to survive in many life scenarios. Fortunately, Apple has a few people who can escape their ingrained genetic tendencies and a supportive company willing to take big financial and credibility risks that reimagine the future with much less regard for the past than most of us.
I'm feeling very positive that the Apple Watch represents the first long term viable product in a market category that's been misread by most current contenders. Most of the current and soon to be past contenders are too busy looking over their shoulder for reassurance because they aren't 100% committed to the long term vision and required financial investment. Companies like Google and Samsung have a long history of throwing a lot of ideas and products at the wall, and they are sometimes successful up to the point of early adoption. But too often they never cross the chasm to early majority and their experiments are abandoned. The Apple ecosystem will create a lot of pull to get the Watch to the edge of the chasm, but I think it'll be the next couple of waves of applications and further tie-ins with current and yet to be announced Apple and partner products that will get them over the chasm. Even big numbers early on won't be a clear indicator because Apple's customer base is so massive that the bottom line numbers will be juicy no matter what.
I'm betting on Apple Watch both personally and professionally.
When the original iPhone launched there were plenty of people who thought that selling a "text and messaging" phone without a dedicated keyboard was a mistake. They were wrong because they were judging a future facing product using a backwards looking lens. The Apple Phone will likely do the same for voice first integration and truly personal computing in a similar way that the iPhone did for phones. Until you're forced to break from the past you seldom ever will, which is why Apple doesn't ask "us" what we want for future products. The pull of the past is very difficult for most people to overcome because we're genetically programmed to learn from our past experiences to survive in many life scenarios. Fortunately, Apple has a few people who can escape their ingrained genetic tendencies and a supportive company willing to take big financial and credibility risks that reimagine the future with much less regard for the past than most of us.
I'm feeling very positive that the Apple Watch represents the first long term viable product in a market category that's been misread by most current contenders. Most of the current and soon to be past contenders are too busy looking over their shoulder for reassurance because they aren't 100% committed to the long term vision and required financial investment. Companies like Google and Samsung have a long history of throwing a lot of ideas and products at the wall, and they are sometimes successful up to the point of early adoption. But too often they never cross the chasm to early majority and their experiments are abandoned. The Apple ecosystem will create a lot of pull to get the Watch to the edge of the chasm, but I think it'll be the next couple of waves of applications and further tie-ins with current and yet to be announced Apple and partner products that will get them over the chasm. Even big numbers early on won't be a clear indicator because Apple's customer base is so massive that the bottom line numbers will be juicy no matter what.
I'm betting on Apple Watch both personally and professionally.
You're making the mistake of looking through backward looking lens yourself. Nobody knew that the iPhone would become what it has, not even Steve Jobs.
You're making the mistake of looking through backward looking lens yourself. Nobody knew that the iPhone would become what it has, not even Steve Jobs.
Au contraire. To the extent that no one can guarantee success, then you are correct. However, all except the inveterate naysayers got the original iPhone when they saw it. During the six-month interval between Steve Job's introduction of the iPhone and the day that it went on sale, the iPhone became the subject of legend and song--literally.
You're making the mistake of looking through backward looking lens yourself. Nobody knew that the iPhone would become what it has, not even Steve Jobs.
Au contraire. To the extent that no one can guarantee success, then you are correct. However, all except the inveterate naysayers got the original iPhone when they saw it. During the six-month interval between Steve Job's introduction of the iPhone and the day that it went on sale, the iPhone became the subject of legend and song--literally.
Did you know what was said about the iPhone to be wrong at the time?
I keep hearing about these people, but I've only ever met a handful — and I was in Apple sales for eight years.
Lots of Apple fans, yes, but almost nobody who would indiscriminately buy just because of the brand.
Really, you've never met these people? You're kidding right? You don't know that Apple is either the second or third most valued brand in the world? That means that people would buy it just for the status. People have bought it just for the status.
In fact, many of the people who were all over the watch are now selling it because they made the mistake of buying an Apple branded product without first understanding what it will do or trying it out.
You should see how this (as in buying stuff for their status) works in China!
Really, you've never met these people? You're kidding right? You don't know that Apple is either the second or third most valued brand in the world? That means that people would buy it just for the status. People have bought it just for the status.
In fact, many of the people who were all over the watch are now selling it because they made the mistake of buying an Apple branded product without first understanding what it will do or trying it out.
You should see how this works in China!
You keep making very broad assertions with no evidence to backup any of them.
You keep making very broad assertions with no evidence to backup any of them.
Yea, some of you are so slow that even when you get crap on your face you have to smell it, taste it, and then ask someone else if it's crap on your face. That's how slow...
Not me, when the crap is a mile away I'm already gone...
Perhaps you should try reading what's online instead of hiding your heads in the sand? Start doing a little homework on your own instead of being such a fanboy?
You keep making very broad assertions with no evidence to backup any of them.
Yea, some of you are so slow that even when you get crap on your face you have to smell it, taste it, and then ask someone else if it's crap on your face. That's how slow...
Not me, when the crap is a mile away I'm already gone...
Perhaps you should try reading what's online instead of hiding your heads in the sand? Start doing a little homework on your own instead of being such a fanboy?
When you're really well read ... things you say will sounds like "very broad assertions" to the relatively uninformed.
Yea, some of you are so slow that even when you get crap on your face you have to smell it, taste it, and then ask someone else if it's crap on your face. That's how slow...
Not me, when the crap is a mile away I'm already gone...
Perhaps you should try reading what's online instead of hiding your heads in the sand? Start doing a little homework on your own instead of being such a fanboy?
This is your evidence? Wow. Some of us are easily persuaded. Your first link is to a single individual. By his own admission, the author Casey Chan was a reluctant buyer going in. He bought an ?Watch despite his misgivings. He went from being a reluctant buyer to a dissatisfied owner. I just call him stupid. I am certain that there are others like him, but you have no basis by which you can generalize the stupidity of Chan onto any known fraction of ?Watch buyers. He certainly does not speak for me.
Your second link is to a Matt Novak report that appears to be about multiple buyers. However, they appear to have one thing in common. They appear to have purchased ?Watches so that they could be among the cool kids. Again, assuming everything in Novak's piece is true, you simply cannot generalize those pathetic souls into any known fraction of ?Watch buyers. I am a grown man. I make intelligent buying decisions. I consider my ?Watch to have been an intelligent choice. I assume that most other buyers are similar to me. You have no evidence to the contrary.
As for your last post, I don't see the point. It is about the exploding popularity of Apple products in China. It is to Apple's credit that it is seen as a luxury brand in China. It is to China's credit that its people appreciate the design and engineering of Apple's products. Of course, other Chinese citizens manufacture most of those products. Perhaps, you can explain how this fits into your narrative.
Really, you've never met these people? You're kidding right? You don't know that Apple is either the second or third most valued brand in the world? That means that people would buy it just for the status. People have bought it just for the status.
In fact, many of the people who were all over the watch are now selling it because they made the mistake of buying an Apple branded product without first understanding what it will do or trying it out.
You should see how this works in China!
No, I've NOT "never met these people".
Actually, I wrote that I HAVE met these people. There's just only been a tiny handful of them over many years. Certainly not any sustainable number.
I think we need to accept that people in general buy Apple products because they inform themselves and get the impression that said products can somehow improve their lives.
Looking through eBay Germany, I actually couldn't find a single Apple Watch that was not new-in-the-box and sold for a markup. I admit that I didn't look very hard, but in the couple of minutes I looked through, it didn't seem like there was a single "mistaken" blind fanboy buyer among the offers.
I myself bought a stainless model because my Omega broke, because I think it's beautiful, and because from a lot of reading, I got a real sense that it could dramatically reduce effect of the time-and-attention-vortex that is the phone in my life (this doesn't apply to everybody). And because I wanted to reward myself for a business goal, and happened to have the money lying around. It's living up to my expectations.
With the iPad, I didn't make the jump until two years in, when I got a 16 GB wi-fi iPad 2 at such a heavy discount that I couldn't afford *not* to test it for work. I didn't upgrade to the actual spec I needed (max storage + cellular) until two years later, when it had become indispensable.
I distinctly remember watching the Jan 9th, 2007 keynote and knowing INSTANTLY that the iPhone would be a tremendous hit, because it was so obviously exactly how this stuff needed to be done. Everybody I knew hated or at best tolerated their phones at the time.
Comments
I'm feeling very positive that the Apple Watch represents the first long term viable product in a market category that's been misread by most current contenders. Most of the current and soon to be past contenders are too busy looking over their shoulder for reassurance because they aren't 100% committed to the long term vision and required financial investment. Companies like Google and Samsung have a long history of throwing a lot of ideas and products at the wall, and they are sometimes successful up to the point of early adoption. But too often they never cross the chasm to early majority and their experiments are abandoned. The Apple ecosystem will create a lot of pull to get the Watch to the edge of the chasm, but I think it'll be the next couple of waves of applications and further tie-ins with current and yet to be announced Apple and partner products that will get them over the chasm. Even big numbers early on won't be a clear indicator because Apple's customer base is so massive that the bottom line numbers will be juicy no matter what.
I'm betting on Apple Watch both personally and professionally.
You're making the mistake of looking through backward looking lens yourself. Nobody knew that the iPhone would become what it has, not even Steve Jobs.
Did you know what was said about the iPhone to be wrong at the time?
They will undoubtedly sell out of the first batch due to fans buying whatever has an Apple logo on it.
I keep hearing about these people, but I've only ever met a handful — and I was in Apple sales for eight years.
Lots of Apple fans, yes, but almost nobody who would indiscriminately buy just because of the brand.
I keep hearing about these people, but I've only ever met a handful — and I was in Apple sales for eight years.
Lots of Apple fans, yes, but almost nobody who would indiscriminately buy just because of the brand.
Really, you've never met these people? You're kidding right? You don't know that Apple is either the second or third most valued brand in the world? That means that people would buy it just for the status. People have bought it just for the status.
In fact, many of the people who were all over the watch are now selling it because they made the mistake of buying an Apple branded product without first understanding what it will do or trying it out.
You should see how this (as in buying stuff for their status) works in China!
You keep making very broad assertions with no evidence to backup any of them.
Yea, some of you are so slow that even when you get crap on your face you have to smell it, taste it, and then ask someone else if it's crap on your face. That's how slow...
Not me, when the crap is a mile away I'm already gone...
Ok, here, for example is one...http://gizmodo.com/why-i-bought-the-apple-watch-even-though-it-makes-no-da-1699956976
Or here...http://gizmodo.com/apple-watch-users-explain-why-theyre-reselling-on-ebay-1711812551
Or how about here? http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/how-apple-became-chinas-most-coveted-luxury-brand-162947
Perhaps you should try reading what's online instead of hiding your heads in the sand? Start doing a little homework on your own instead of being such a fanboy?
You keep making very broad assertions with no evidence to backup any of them.
Yea, some of you are so slow that even when you get crap on your face you have to smell it, taste it, and then ask someone else if it's crap on your face. That's how slow...
Not me, when the crap is a mile away I'm already gone...
Ok, here, for example is one...http://gizmodo.com/why-i-bought-the-apple-watch-even-though-it-makes-no-da-1699956976
Or here...http://gizmodo.com/apple-watch-users-explain-why-theyre-reselling-on-ebay-1711812551
Or how about here? http://www.adweek.com/news/advertising-branding/how-apple-became-chinas-most-coveted-luxury-brand-162947
Perhaps you should try reading what's online instead of hiding your heads in the sand? Start doing a little homework on your own instead of being such a fanboy?
When you're really well read ... things you say will sounds like "very broad assertions" to the relatively uninformed.
This is your evidence? Wow. Some of us are easily persuaded. Your first link is to a single individual. By his own admission, the author Casey Chan was a reluctant buyer going in. He bought an ?Watch despite his misgivings. He went from being a reluctant buyer to a dissatisfied owner. I just call him stupid. I am certain that there are others like him, but you have no basis by which you can generalize the stupidity of Chan onto any known fraction of ?Watch buyers. He certainly does not speak for me.
Your second link is to a Matt Novak report that appears to be about multiple buyers. However, they appear to have one thing in common. They appear to have purchased ?Watches so that they could be among the cool kids. Again, assuming everything in Novak's piece is true, you simply cannot generalize those pathetic souls into any known fraction of ?Watch buyers. I am a grown man. I make intelligent buying decisions. I consider my ?Watch to have been an intelligent choice. I assume that most other buyers are similar to me. You have no evidence to the contrary.
As for your last post, I don't see the point. It is about the exploding popularity of Apple products in China. It is to Apple's credit that it is seen as a luxury brand in China. It is to China's credit that its people appreciate the design and engineering of Apple's products. Of course, other Chinese citizens manufacture most of those products. Perhaps, you can explain how this fits into your narrative.
Really, you've never met these people? You're kidding right? You don't know that Apple is either the second or third most valued brand in the world? That means that people would buy it just for the status. People have bought it just for the status.
In fact, many of the people who were all over the watch are now selling it because they made the mistake of buying an Apple branded product without first understanding what it will do or trying it out.
You should see how this works in China!
No, I've NOT "never met these people".
Actually, I wrote that I HAVE met these people. There's just only been a tiny handful of them over many years. Certainly not any sustainable number.I think we need to accept that people in general buy Apple products because they inform themselves and get the impression that said products can somehow improve their lives.
Looking through eBay Germany, I actually couldn't find a single Apple Watch that was not new-in-the-box and sold for a markup. I admit that I didn't look very hard, but in the couple of minutes I looked through, it didn't seem like there was a single "mistaken" blind fanboy buyer among the offers.
I myself bought a stainless model because my Omega broke, because I think it's beautiful, and because from a lot of reading, I got a real sense that it could dramatically reduce effect of the time-and-attention-vortex that is the phone in my life (this doesn't apply to everybody). And because I wanted to reward myself for a business goal, and happened to have the money lying around. It's living up to my expectations.
With the iPad, I didn't make the jump until two years in, when I got a 16 GB wi-fi iPad 2 at such a heavy discount that I couldn't afford *not* to test it for work. I didn't upgrade to the actual spec I needed (max storage + cellular) until two years later, when it had become indispensable.
I distinctly remember watching the Jan 9th, 2007 keynote and knowing INSTANTLY that the iPhone would be a tremendous hit, because it was so obviously exactly how this stuff needed to be done. Everybody I knew hated or at best tolerated their phones at the time.