You're obviously not part of the target demographic for Apple and their watch and it seems like you should know that. So then - what makes you think that anyone reading Apple Insider would want to read about - or care even a little bit about - your opinions on the watch or all of the reasons the product isn't a fit for you? If Apple doesn't care about you - why would we? Do you frequent enthusiast sites for other products and post on their message boards, all of the reasons why the product they are enthusiastic about will never work for you and your lifestyle? LOL - if not - why are we so lucky? Don't answer. My questions are all rhetorical. I don't want to waste another minute of my life reading any more of the crap you're posting here. Move on to a parachuting club website and join their forums to tell everybody how dangerous parachuting is and how you personally have far too much to live for to ever even consider skydiving. Be sure to give lots of examples! I'm sure they'll love you for it! lol
Wow, I guess I must have touched on a nerve, huh? My opinion was not related to something personal, but rather using my personal thoughts to further the position that the article was discussing - whether the Swiss watch manufacturers were going to be negatively effected by the Apple Watch. I provided reasons why people much like myself will keep buying mechanical / automatic timepieces, which is entirely separate from any discussion on whether I would buy an Apple Watch myself (which I likely will). I've been [heavily] invested in Apple products since the Macintosh (circa 1984), and I wouldn't say I'm trolling or being harsh in my comments or thoughts about any Apple product.
You're obviously not part of the target demographic for Apple and their watch and it seems like you should know that. So then - what makes you think that anyone reading Apple Insider would want to read about - or care even a little bit about - your opinions on the watch or all of the reasons the product isn't a fit for you? If Apple doesn't care about you - why would we? Do you frequent enthusiast sites for other products and post on their message boards, all of the reasons why the product they are enthusiastic about will never work for you and your lifestyle? LOL - if not - why are we so lucky? Don't answer. My questions are all rhetorical. I don't want to waste another minute of my life reading any more of the crap you're posting here. Move on to a parachuting club website and join their forums to tell everybody how dangerous parachuting is and how you personally have far too much to live for to ever even consider skydiving. Be sure to give lots of examples! I'm sure they'll love you for it! lol
Ah, so according to you, this is an Apple Enthusiasts forum? Now I understand why any negative comments about Apple get such aggressive responses: this is for Apple fans only. I wasn't aware of that but if true, you should indeed bully everyone with a different opinion out. I will adapt.
<span style="line-height:1.4em;">"</span>
<em style="line-height:1.4em;">File Under:<span style="line-height:1.4em;"> "It's GREAT to be Rich" .... 'cause </span>
<a href="http://www.tmz.com/person/carmelo-anthony/" style="color:rgb(16,98,150);line-height:1.4em;" target="_blank">Carmelo Anthony</a>
<span style="line-height:1.4em;"> just strapped on a brand new watch ... worth $565,000!!!!!!</span>
</em>
Melo just posted the timepiece on Instagram ... and now, we've learned why -- it's a super limited Greubel Forsey ... one of the most popular brands with hardcore watch collectors. So, why's the watch so valuable? It's not loaded with gold or diamonds ... it's what's under the hood -- precision mechanics. Plus, the 3D globe on the watch took the company 18 months to develop. " <a href="http://www.tmz.com/2015/05/08/carmelo-anthony-565000-watch-greubel-forsey" style="color:rgb(0,51,153);line-height:normal;" target="_blank">http://www.tmz.com/2015/05/08/carmelo-anthony-565000-watch-greubel-forsey</a>;
Actually, I too thought so, until I noticed the poor quality watch band and how badly it connects to the watch.
Hard to tell the quality of the band, but they did go with the old dowel route that eventually eats away at the holes on the watch. Very little thought went into that I'd agree.
Wow, I guess I must have touched on a nerve, huh? My opinion was not related to something personal, but rather using my personal thoughts to further the position that the article was discussing - whether the Swiss watch manufacturers were going to be negatively effected by the Apple Watch. I provided reasons why people much like myself will keep buying mechanical / automatic timepieces, which is entirely separate from any discussion on whether I would buy an Apple Watch myself (which I likely will). I've been [heavily] invested in Apple products since the Macintosh (circa 1984), and I wouldn't say I'm trolling or being harsh in my comments or thoughts about any Apple product.
Maybe. Jmfisher set me off earlier in this thread and other recent threads - and since your name also starts with a "J", you must be an identical person. Apologies for being unnecessarily harsh. Your post does describe a group of people who will continue to purchase mechanical watches - but we all know that they will exist. What you don't do however is provide any evidence or estimate as to the size of this group of people. Apple does not expect to garner 100% of the watch market. The question at hand is: what percentage of people who would have previously purchased a Swiss watch, will instead choose to purchase an Apple Watch. I think we can all agree that there will be people in this category - which will represent decreased sales of Swiss watches. But how large is this group of people? Swiss watch sales will definitely suffer - but to what degree? Is it insignificant or is it higher - say in the 20% range? While that number may not push any watch makers out of business, it could put pressure on them and result in anything from smaller bonuses to actual layoffs.
Your post focused on describing the characteristics and/or motivations of some of the people belonging to the group that would NOT buy the Apple Watch. I didn't see it as particularly valuable or pertinent to the discussion. What we need is an estimate as to how many people WILL buy the Apple Watch instead of a Swiss watch. (and the answer is definitely not "nobody" - there will definitely be people in this group.)
Ah, so according to you, this is an Apple Enthusiasts forum? Now I understand why any negative comments about Apple get such aggressive responses: this is for Apple fans only. I wasn't aware of that but if true, you should indeed bully everyone with a different opinion out. I will adapt.
Really? You didn't expect that a site called AppleInsider would be frequented by Apple enthusiasts? Even after your 186 posts? Contrasting opinions are always welcome - providing of course that they don't also post facts which are actually untrue. Its also not helpful in advancing any conversation when people launch into a very detailed story about their life which explains all of the reasons why a particular product does not fit their lifestyle! If you have photographic needs that are not met by the camera in the smartphone then by all means - go buy a professional camera! But why stop here and post that the smartphone camera is not good enough - when it is obviously good enough for MOST people - and I would be surprised if anybody here cared what their detailed list of personal reasons are for wanting something different!
Really? You didn't expect that a site called AppleInsider would be frequented by Apple enthusiasts? Even after your 186 posts? Contrasting opinions are always welcome - providing of course that they don't also post facts which are actually untrue. Its also not helpful in advancing any conversation when people launch into a very detailed story about their life which explains all of the reasons why a particular product does not fit their lifestyle! If you have photographic needs that are not met by the camera in the smartphone then by all means - go buy a professional camera! But why stop here and post that the smartphone camera is not good enough - when it is obviously good enough for MOST people - and I would be surprised if anybody here cared what their detailed list of personal reasons are for wanting something different!
It could have been frequented by people objectively interested in Apple. I find that sometimes responses to doubts about Apples products, business practices, or even people are met with unduly harsh responses. Your post was the confirmation of what I suspected. No problem at all, but it is a lost opportunity if everyone is forced to drink the same Kool-Aid.
I did not mean to condone the post you criticised; it was ill placed.
Lastly, I think the market share Apple will eat is less than 5%. And I have almost no data to back this up, just some thoughts. I posted the back of the envelope estimates earlier. Say iPhone has s 30% market share, of which 1/3 are current watch users. Of these 10%, say 1/2 buy an Apple Watch, and 80% of them instead rather than in addition to a Swiss watch, you are looking at 3% - 5% eating into the existing Swiss watch market. Not insignificant, enough to make them react. Are they scared? Of course. In 2015, everyone in business is scared all the time, no matter what industry. If its not technology eating an industry, it's globalisation, cheap capital, recessions, demographics, wars, regulation. Etc.
If you check out the Greubel Forsey website, then you will see that this monstrosity is actually somewhat more elegant than most of its products. Carmelo Anthony's watch is part of the watchmaker's GMT collection. It appears that Greubel Forsey feels free to repurpose the well understood albeit obsolete abbreviation for Greenwich Mean Time. In the Greubel Forsey collection, GMT simply means having a second time zone.
At any rate, each watch in Greubel Forsey's collection is an example of what super high end mechanical watches have come to. Vintage mechanical watches are often quite elegant. However, many of the modern watches including those by Greubel Forsey look like something that was assimilated by the Borg.
I was in the Apple Store this afternoon and it was super crowded as usual. Lots of people just using the iPads and computers to browse the web. There was a Mac training session going on in one corner. The new 12" Retina Macbook Pro was very popular, they had a space grey and gold one on show on the side of the table I was looking at, over the other side some guy was picking it up to admire the thinness while being careful not to set off any alarms.
The main front window contained an Apple Watch display (the one with all the circles) and the Apple Watch table was right in the centre of the Store. The table had 38mm down one side and 42mm down the other. Sport, regular and Edition were all on show. But there was no-one at that table, and because the store was so crowded otherwise it really stood out. People swarming around all the tables expect for the Apple Watch table. I was half expecting a tumbleweed to blow by it.
that reminds me of when I first held an iPad. I was able to stroll in at 1pm on launch day in Dallas Tx and pick one up.
However the watch is different in that everyone already knows you can only order it online. Many people already tried it out. People gather around the other items because they can be purchased right in the store and they need help setting them up....etc. if the watch was in the store for purchase many more people would be trying them out. Apple grossly underestimated interest here. It takes a minimum of 1-2 months to get a watch. I cant go anywhere without someone noticing.
It could have been frequented by people objectively interested in Apple. I find that sometimes responses to doubts about Apples products, business practices, or even people are met with unduly harsh responses. Your post was the confirmation of what I suspected. No problem at all, but it is a lost opportunity if everyone is forced to drink the same Kool-Aid.
I did not mean to condone the post you criticised; it was ill placed.
Lastly, I think the market share Apple will eat is less than 5%. And I have almost no data to back this up, just some thoughts. I posted the back of the envelope estimates earlier. Say iPhone has s 30% market share, of which 1/3 are current watch users. Of these 10%, say 1/2 buy an Apple Watch, and 80% of them instead rather than in addition to a Swiss watch, you are looking at 3% - 5% eating into the existing Swiss watch market. Not insignificant, enough to make them react. Are they scared? Of course. In 2015, everyone in business is scared all the time, no matter what industry. If its not technology eating an industry, it's globalisation, cheap capital, recessions, demographics, wars, regulation. Etc.
There actually ARE some good, objective back and forth discussions on here. Unfortunately, there is far too much trolling where an anti-Apple faction repeatedly and intentionally post lies and misinformation about Apple products. They post "facts" which are simply not true and then they help casual readers draw conclusions and form negative opinions that are backed up by the incorrect facts. It's tiresome calling them out on their bulleshit all the time and I'd really much rather ignore their posts and move on to the next one - but if nobody calls them on it and disputes their posts publicly, some readers will walk away with negative opinions and incorrect facts about the device. Then there are the lonely or self-important people that don't have anything worthwhile to add to the discussion so they go to great lengths to tell you why this particular device is not suitable for them and how they live life better than everybody else and that more people should be like them! Also / we have the extremists, the short-sighted and the narrow-minded people here who also have very little to add to most discussions. These are the people who use words like ALWAYS or NEVER or NOBODY or EVERYBODY. There is no in-between or grey areas to these people. There are the name droppers who just sit back and wait for an opportunity to tell us that STEVE would or would not have done something. And there are those that are convinced that there anecdotal evidence tells the entire tale. If there is a report in the news that says 1% of users are experiencing battery issues - but they know 5 people with the device and NONE of them are having the issue - then the story is a lie because they've seen otherwise....etc, etc...
So...I'm sorry if my precious posts have offended you - but after spending so much wading through all of the garbage posts waiting to find the next post that actually contributes to the discussion...sometimes I hit my threshold for crap and let loose on whoever is closest. I don't do it daily and I try to contribute when I can or more politely point out misinformation in the posts of trolls.
For what it's worth, I think your estimates are fairly well thought out and definitely well within the realm of possibility. If I was a gambler, I think I'd take the "under" if 5% were the line.
Ach ja... The Watch will sell substantially, it is an incredible device, and it will impact the watch industry (especially in the USD 350 - USD 700 range) but the watch industry is not like the phone industry, inasmuch as most people have one phone but own multiple watches. So there is room for many players.
Back of the envelope estimates could be that of iPhone users (30%), some (30%?) will buy the Apple watch as one of two watches they own (50%), ie impact is .3 x .3 x .5 = 5% market share. Meaningful, but not comparable to the impact they had in the phone industry. (I did not include first time watch buyers, as arguably, they would not have bought a Swiss watch).
nope.... The smartphone market is arguably vastly larger than the luxury watch market and maybe the watch market as a whole.
I would argue that Apple is expanding the overall watch market by leaps and bounds. In that scenario your guesses likely wouldnt hold up very well. And id argue that the smartwatch is a different category than a luxury watch. However the smartwatch does have crossover if its stylish there will be people who wont leave home without their watch... It may stop them from buying anything other than smartwatches in the future.
How many smartwatches are sold in a quarter?
Apple sold between 1-3 million watches so far...in a market that sold 1million in total last year when considering the highest sales estimates. That translates to > 50% marketshare for smartwatches. Does any watch maker sell millions of watches in a week? Swiss watchmakers arent concerned yet. However they may have to be in the future. I think if they can combine mechanics and software they may have something....but otherwise its the Android vs wOS....watchmakers end up being the loser in this scenario much like traditional phonemakers.
As antediluvian as a sundial, as ugly as Frankenstein. Don't mistake it for character or preciousness. Unless it's more accurate than 50ms from the universal time standard, it's not "precision mechanics" either.
nope.... The smartphone market is arguably vastly larger than the luxury watch market and maybe the watch market as a whole.
I would argue that Apple is expanding the overall watch market by leaps and bounds. In that scenario your guesses likely wouldnt hold up very well. And id argue that the smartwatch is a different category than a luxury watch. However the smartwatch does have crossover if its stylish there will be people who wont leave home without their watch... It may stop them from buying anything other than smartwatches in the future.
How many smartwatches are sold in a quarter?
Apple sold between 1-3 million watches so far...in a market that sold 1million in total last year when considering the highest sales estimates. That translates to > 50% marketshare for smartwatches. Does any watch maker sell millions of watches in a week? Swiss watchmakers arent concerned yet. However they may have to be in the future. I think if they can combine mechanics and software they may have something....but otherwise its the Android vs wOS....watchmakers end up being the loser in this scenario much like traditional phonemakers.
But the maximum market share is still confined to iPhone users (30%) of the population. And then from these 30%, you have to estimate how many will buy a Watch (1/2?); and of these, how many buy a Watch instead of a Swiss watch since this thread is about the threat to the Swiss watchmakers (much less than 1/3, how many iPhone users wear a Swiss watch today?).
It could be that Apple redefines the Watch industry and builds a market where none exists today, but this may be of less concern to Swiss watchmakers as they operate in what is already a niche market, but still, I am sure they watch this space intensely.
I think the problem is they need to let people play with them more. They're trying to sell it like a traditional watch, under a display case which the sales assistant takes it out of for you. That works great for traditional watches, because you already know what it does, you just need a few moments to feel the weight of it, and gauge the quality in your hand. But the Apple Watch doesn't have just one feature which everyone already knows, it has lots of features, so people need to play with it. It should be sold more like an iPhone that a traditional watch. This whole idea that "It's a whole new product and we have to do everything differently (from a sales perspective)," is wrong, they should have kept doing what they were doing.
See the quoted text below. The demo units are on other tables around the store. The glass display table is to show the different models. Not really as interesting as playing with the demo units.
what on earth are you talking about? right next to those cases are interactive demo units -- an AW attached to an iPad that shows information about the screen youre currently on. you can play with them to your heart's content to try out all the features -- without any assistance whatsoever. just like the demo iPhones.
are you making things up?
Maybe he just wasn't paying attention. I was in what, in my experience, is the quietest ever Apple Store - also in Australia, and the demo units were being heavily used. More so than most of the other displays.
So...I'm sorry if my precious posts have offended you - but after spending so much wading through all of the garbage posts waiting to find the next post that actually contributes to the discussion...sometimes I hit my threshold for crap and let loose on whoever is closest. I don't do it daily and I try to contribute when I can or more politely point out misinformation in the posts of trolls.
Ha ha - just saw my typo when you quoted me in your reply. It said "my precious posts" but was meant to say "my previous posts"...! Changes the meaning significantly... lol
Ha ha - just saw my typo when you quoted me in your reply. It said "my precious posts" but was meant to say "my previous posts"...! Changes the meaning significantly... lol
I was beginning to think you were the Gollum of AI.
Comments
You're obviously not part of the target demographic for Apple and their watch and it seems like you should know that. So then - what makes you think that anyone reading Apple Insider would want to read about - or care even a little bit about - your opinions on the watch or all of the reasons the product isn't a fit for you? If Apple doesn't care about you - why would we? Do you frequent enthusiast sites for other products and post on their message boards, all of the reasons why the product they are enthusiastic about will never work for you and your lifestyle? LOL - if not - why are we so lucky? Don't answer. My questions are all rhetorical. I don't want to waste another minute of my life reading any more of the crap you're posting here. Move on to a parachuting club website and join their forums to tell everybody how dangerous parachuting is and how you personally have far too much to live for to ever even consider skydiving. Be sure to give lots of examples! I'm sure they'll love you for it! lol
Wow, I guess I must have touched on a nerve, huh? My opinion was not related to something personal, but rather using my personal thoughts to further the position that the article was discussing - whether the Swiss watch manufacturers were going to be negatively effected by the Apple Watch. I provided reasons why people much like myself will keep buying mechanical / automatic timepieces, which is entirely separate from any discussion on whether I would buy an Apple Watch myself (which I likely will). I've been [heavily] invested in Apple products since the Macintosh (circa 1984), and I wouldn't say I'm trolling or being harsh in my comments or thoughts about any Apple product.
Ah, so according to you, this is an Apple Enthusiasts forum? Now I understand why any negative comments about Apple get such aggressive responses: this is for Apple fans only. I wasn't aware of that but if true, you should indeed bully everyone with a different opinion out. I will adapt.
Groan. What a sad little monstrosity.
There's no accounting for taste.
It's at least an extremely well made monster.
Actually, I too thought so, until I noticed the poor quality watch band and how badly it connects to the watch.
Hard to tell the quality of the band, but they did go with the old dowel route that eventually eats away at the holes on the watch. Very little thought went into that I'd agree.
Your post focused on describing the characteristics and/or motivations of some of the people belonging to the group that would NOT buy the Apple Watch. I didn't see it as particularly valuable or pertinent to the discussion. What we need is an estimate as to how many people WILL buy the Apple Watch instead of a Swiss watch. (and the answer is definitely not "nobody" - there will definitely be people in this group.)
I never use Auto ISO and most of the time I set the exposure and aperture manually.
How easy is that to do on a camera phone (if at all possible...)?
As easy as sliding your finger vertically on the display, at least on an iPhone. It doesn't get much easier…
It could have been frequented by people objectively interested in Apple. I find that sometimes responses to doubts about Apples products, business practices, or even people are met with unduly harsh responses. Your post was the confirmation of what I suspected. No problem at all, but it is a lost opportunity if everyone is forced to drink the same Kool-Aid.
I did not mean to condone the post you criticised; it was ill placed.
Lastly, I think the market share Apple will eat is less than 5%. And I have almost no data to back this up, just some thoughts. I posted the back of the envelope estimates earlier. Say iPhone has s 30% market share, of which 1/3 are current watch users. Of these 10%, say 1/2 buy an Apple Watch, and 80% of them instead rather than in addition to a Swiss watch, you are looking at 3% - 5% eating into the existing Swiss watch market. Not insignificant, enough to make them react. Are they scared? Of course. In 2015, everyone in business is scared all the time, no matter what industry. If its not technology eating an industry, it's globalisation, cheap capital, recessions, demographics, wars, regulation. Etc.
At any rate, each watch in Greubel Forsey's collection is an example of what super high end mechanical watches have come to. Vintage mechanical watches are often quite elegant. However, many of the modern watches including those by Greubel Forsey look like something that was assimilated by the Borg.
However the watch is different in that everyone already knows you can only order it online. Many people already tried it out. People gather around the other items because they can be purchased right in the store and they need help setting them up....etc. if the watch was in the store for purchase many more people would be trying them out. Apple grossly underestimated interest here. It takes a minimum of 1-2 months to get a watch. I cant go anywhere without someone noticing.
So...I'm sorry if my precious posts have offended you - but after spending so much wading through all of the garbage posts waiting to find the next post that actually contributes to the discussion...sometimes I hit my threshold for crap and let loose on whoever is closest. I don't do it daily and I try to contribute when I can or more politely point out misinformation in the posts of trolls.
For what it's worth, I think your estimates are fairly well thought out and definitely well within the realm of possibility. If I was a gambler, I think I'd take the "under" if 5% were the line.
I would argue that Apple is expanding the overall watch market by leaps and bounds. In that scenario your guesses likely wouldnt hold up very well. And id argue that the smartwatch is a different category than a luxury watch. However the smartwatch does have crossover if its stylish there will be people who wont leave home without their watch... It may stop them from buying anything other than smartwatches in the future.
How many smartwatches are sold in a quarter?
Apple sold between 1-3 million watches so far...in a market that sold 1million in total last year when considering the highest sales estimates. That translates to > 50% marketshare for smartwatches. Does any watch maker sell millions of watches in a week? Swiss watchmakers arent concerned yet. However they may have to be in the future. I think if they can combine mechanics and software they may have something....but otherwise its the Android vs wOS....watchmakers end up being the loser in this scenario much like traditional phonemakers.
As antediluvian as a sundial, as ugly as Frankenstein. Don't mistake it for character or preciousness. Unless it's more accurate than 50ms from the universal time standard, it's not "precision mechanics" either.
But the maximum market share is still confined to iPhone users (30%) of the population. And then from these 30%, you have to estimate how many will buy a Watch (1/2?); and of these, how many buy a Watch instead of a Swiss watch since this thread is about the threat to the Swiss watchmakers (much less than 1/3, how many iPhone users wear a Swiss watch today?).
It could be that Apple redefines the Watch industry and builds a market where none exists today, but this may be of less concern to Swiss watchmakers as they operate in what is already a niche market, but still, I am sure they watch this space intensely.
See the quoted text below. The demo units are on other tables around the store. The glass display table is to show the different models. Not really as interesting as playing with the demo units.
Maybe he just wasn't paying attention. I was in what, in my experience, is the quietest ever Apple Store - also in Australia, and the demo units were being heavily used. More so than most of the other displays.
No offence taken, at all.
I was beginning to think you were the Gollum of AI.