Analysts bullish ahead of Apple's Q3 results, say iPhone sales could reach 50M+

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited July 2015
Analyst sentiment is generally high ahead of Apple's third-quarter earnings announcement -- due on Tuesday -- calling for numbers that could beat both official guidance as well as Wall Street consensus, mostly on the strength of iPhone sales that could near or top 50 million.


Wells Fargo

Analyst Maynard Um raised his revenue and earnings-per-share (EPS) predictions from $48.8 billion and $1.79 to $50.2 billion and $1.85, based on predicted sales of 50.1 million iPhones, which could be worth $30.8 billion. The iPhone outlook is due largely to the addition of 25 more carriers during the quarter, such as Vodafone India.

Um also suggested that Mac sales could beat consensus with 4.9 million units and $5.9 billion in revenue, owing to the 12-inch Retina MacBook offsetting general weakness in the computer market.

The analyst separately called for flat iPad sales of 12.3 million units, and minimal contribution from updated iPods. Apple Watch sales are forecast to be half Street consensus at just 2 million units, though Apple is not anticipated to reveal specific figures that would confirm or deny this.

Cowen and Company

Cowen analyst Timothy Arcuri called for $51 billion in revenue and $1.88 in EPS, linked to 50 million iPhone sales. Despite the fact that Apple doesn't reveal sales for individual models, Arcuri suggested a division of 28 million iPhone 6 units, and 13 million for the 6 Plus.

The analyst said that iPhone sales are predicted to be high based on supply chain cuts for rival phones -- such as the Samsung Galaxy S6 -- along with strong Chinese sales, and better iPhone penetration growth and loyalty at U.S. carriers.

iPad sales are estimated to drop 25 percent year-over-year to 10 million units, and not start recovering until Apple releases a 12.9-inch model, which Arcuri claimed will ship in spring 2016.

Watch sales are estimated to be 3 million, but with some possible upside.

Piper Jaffray

Piper's Gene Munster indicated $50 billion in revenue and $1.82 in EPS for the quarter, attached to iPhone sales of between 49 and 50 million. Even 49 million units would represent 39 percent growth year-over-year, which is believed to be a sign that iPhone growth is accelerating thanks to greater control of the high-end market. The tail of iPhone 6 and 6 Plus sales is "longer than expected," Munster wrote.

Apple is due to announce third-quarter results after the close of Tuesday stock trading. AppleInsider will share the results as soon as they become available, including coverage of Apple's 5 p.m. Eastern conference call with investors and analysts.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 32
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,030member
    Sometimes I think we forget that Apple is regularly moving into new markets, a sure way to increase sales. And of course when that happens it negatively affects products that are already selling in those new markets, typically Android devices.
  • Reply 2 of 32
    damonfdamonf Posts: 217member
    "The analyst separately called for flat iPad sales of 12.3 million units, and minimal contribution from updated iPods."

    The iPod refresh didn't come until last week, which by my calendar was still in the month of July, not in Apple's fiscal quarter in question.
  • Reply 3 of 32
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 696member
    One business week ago, Apple hit $120/share. What's changed? Nothing except perception. Investors have been fooled by the oldest gsme in the book; the shell game. They were led to believe, once again, that Apple was doomed. Then, when the weak sisters have all been panicked out of the stock, and just before the facts force the shells to be turned over, the smart money rushes in and snaps up value for a song. Then, when it starts to leak out that Apple is actually killing it, they just sit back and ride the stock to the top, where they sell. Rinse and repeat next quarter.
  • Reply 4 of 32
    Nobody listens to analysts anymore....a complete waste of pixel estate.
  • Reply 5 of 32
    vagvobavagvoba Posts: 16member

    Last week when Google reported earnings, their stock shot up by 15% in one day to the price-earnings-ratio of 31.5. They reported 11% YoY revenue increase and 13%-16% earnings increase, which actually showed that their growth is decelerating seriously. A year ago, they still reported 22% YoY revenue growth, so their growth rate was cut in half in the past year.

     

    Tomorrow Apple is expected to report over 30% revenue and earnings increase, which is a proof of accelerating growth rate. Yet, I'm pretty sure that AAPL is going to fall in the following few days by a couple of percents. Just in comparison, Apple's price-earnings-ratio is at 16, half of Google's.

     

    This all goes against common sense. High P/E is usually awarded to high growth companies. In this case Apple should have high P/E and around $1.5T valuation, just as Carl Icahn is advocating, and Google should have a lower P/E and significantly lower valuation.

     

    Well, this is just one more sign of how clueless stock traders are.

    The takeaway is that AAPL is very cheap, so BUY, BUY, BUY!

  • Reply 6 of 32
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Will we see Apple skyrocket $60B like Google did last Friday. Doubt it. Analyst always seem to come up with negativity or headwinds. Either gross margins are soft, guidance is light or if there isn't really any flaws with the quarter then they trot out difficult comps.
  • Reply 7 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,971member

    This's mind blogging. I expected around 48mil units. I don't know why AAPL doesn't get 10% gain since Apple got every quarter like this so far while Google just got 1 fucking quarter and got like 16% gain.

  • Reply 8 of 32
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    sacto joe wrote: »
    One business week ago, Apple hit $120/share. What's changed? Nothing except perception. Investors have been fooled by the oldest gsme in the book; the shell game. They were led to believe, once again, that Apple was doomed. Then, when the weak sisters have all been panicked out of the stock, and just before the facts force the shells to be turned over, the smart money rushes in and snaps up value for a song. Then, when it starts to leak out that Apple is actually killing it, they just sit back and ride the stock to the top, where they sell. Rinse and repeat next quarter.

    A week ago everyone was freaking out about China now turn on CNBC and hardly any China talk.
  • Reply 9 of 32
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,030member
    fallenjt wrote: »
    This's mind blogging. I expected around 48mil units. I don't know why AAPL doesn't get 10% gain since Apple got every quarter like this so far while Google just got 1 fucking quarter and got like 16% gain.
    They're giving a lot of it back today. You aren't trying to make sense out of the stock market are you?
  • Reply 10 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,971member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    dont feel sorry for weak hands that sold at $120.

     

    In fact it was there fault that the stock dropped that low in the first place.  If they did not sell at $125 and $122 it would have never dropped so low.  idiots.

     

    But good for those who picked up new shares at a discount.  Unfortunately I was not able to since I'm way too overweight Apple already.


    I was upset that day and placed my bet on AAPL by buying another 1000 shares while challenged these fckers in Cult of Android when they said AAPL would go under $110. Who's the fool, now? I have my limit order at $135 and it appears to be this week. 

    I put a lot of wt on AAPL because it's too undervalued. I'll stay on it until the end of this year when it hits $140. 

  • Reply 11 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,971member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    They're giving a lot of it back today. You aren't trying to make sense out of the stock market are you?

    Yeah, sound like you do? Why are you even here instead of Marketwatch?

  • Reply 12 of 32
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 696member
    rogifan wrote: »
    A week ago everyone was freaking out about China now turn on CNBC and hardly any China talk.
    rogifan wrote: »
    A week ago everyone was freaking out about China now turn on CNBC and hardly any China talk.
    Yep. Perceptions are driving the price of AAPL. But is someone behind these changes in perception? Fear and greed are the buttons that drive stock price. Is someone pushing those buttons when it comes to Apple?
  • Reply 13 of 32
    sacto joesacto joe Posts: 696member
    fallenjt wrote: »
    I was upset that day and placed my bet on AAPL by buying another 1000 shares while challenged these fckers in Cult of Android when they said AAPL would go under $110. Who's the fool, now? I have my limit order at $135 and it appears to be this week. 
    I put a lot of wt on AAPL because it's too undervalued. I'll stay on it until the end of this year when it hits $140. 
    I'm pretty sure we're going to blow well past $140 this year.
  • Reply 14 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,971member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by sog35 View Post

     

     

    My target is $150 this year.  Last year my target was $120 and I missed it by 50 cents.

     

    But there are no guarantees if the broad market corrects.  But IMO no matter what Apple should out perform the broad market.  Best risk vs reward stock on Wall Street IMO.


    After $135 which I'll sell off entire AAPL stock, I'll stand by to buy back some at lower $130. I believe it will cool down to $127-$128. I'm up over $34k since Jan this year just on AAPL. Last week, I was down to $5k and I wasn't afraid at all. 

  • Reply 15 of 32
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    They're giving a lot of it back today. You aren't trying to make sense out of the stock market are you?

    Google is down less than one percent today. Not much is being given back.
  • Reply 16 of 32
    mj webmj web Posts: 918member
    AAPL is my largest holding. Split adjusted I paid around $11 per share. Great company with an average # of missteps. I think the Watch has been way overhyped, for example, and I don't listen to rap music or like Beats headphones. I wish Apple bought GoPro instead. But I <3 AAPL!
  • Reply 17 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,971member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Gatorguy View Post





    They're giving a lot of it back today. You aren't trying to make sense out of the stock market are you?

     

     

    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    Google is down less than one percent today. Not much is being given back.

    He only looks at the $ number which was $6-$7...for $670 stock, it's ~1%...

  • Reply 18 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,971member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by MJ Web View Post



    AAPL is my largest holding. Split adjusted I paid around $11 per share. Great company with an average # of missteps. I think the Watch has been way overhyped, for example, and I don't listen to rap music or like Beats headphones. I wish Apple bought GoPro instead. But I <3 AAPL!

    I wish Apple bought Tesla instead. Now, that's great diversity there.

  • Reply 19 of 32
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,030member
    gatorguy wrote: »
    They're giving a lot of it back today. You aren't trying to make sense out of the stock market are you?
    rogifan wrote: »
    Google is down less than one percent today. Not much is being given back.
    It was down $18 a little earlier today
  • Reply 20 of 32
    gatorguygatorguy Posts: 20,030member
    fallenjt wrote: »

    He only looks at the $ number which was $6-$7...for $670 stock, it's ~1%...
    Nope. Look at the price history today.

    EDIT: Today's low so far is $653, which was around noon EST, about the time I had last looked at it.
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