Apple Watch supplier misses 2M unit break-even point for Q2, FUD flinging ensues

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  • Reply 201 of 301
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,560member
    atlapple wrote: »

    Maybe you didn't actually read what I posted. I never said Cook lied or even attempted to lie, he simply refuses to release numbers instead he lumps them in with "other products". Some on this forum will try to justify any excuse to defy any reasonable logic the numbers just aren't there. 

    The pre market push on this watch was one of the largest I've seen Apple do ever. An announcement followed six months later by an event, articles, magazine covers, before it was release high profile people wearing them, clearly given to them before launch. All this to group it with other products? Yeah that's logical. 

    The hype was NOTHING compared to what preceded the iPhone release in the six months after its formal introduction.
  • Reply 202 of 301
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,560member
    atlapple wrote: »

    I'm not ignoring anything. My argument is if the numbers were great and there was a financial benefit to releasing them they would have been released. I'm not a mind reader but I can speculate why Cook made this decision before the product was released. This was a major product release, his first major product release, so my guess is he said he wasn't going to release the numbers just in case this product didn't take off right away.
    It was Cook's FOURTH major product release. He was there for the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, and actually in charge of the numbers for at least the last two of those.

    There is a clear competitive advantage to not releasing the numbers on a completely uncharted market.

    End of story.
  • Reply 203 of 301
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,560member
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    I think I have a valid point. I also don't think it's a sound business strategy if the success of your product depends on people dying. A lot can change between now and then.

    Apple succeeds by focusing on the people who follow after them, not by focusing on those who "die out". Skating to where the puck will be, etc., yadda yadda.
  • Reply 204 of 301
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,560member
    solipsismy wrote: »
    How many septuagenarians have studied and programmed Swift with it over the past year? How many denarians, vicenarians tricenarians did the same? Let's say we exclude those that took Swift in school because they had to? Do you think that your interests, IQ, and penchant for modern technology mirror the average person in your age group? I don't. I would say that your interest in new technology is more inline with today's youth. Mine too.

    What does needing to study and program in Swift have to do with active interest in technology and consumer electronics?

    I mean, I love my high-end stereo, mainly because I dig music. I have ZERO interest in designing my own amplifier or building a turntable. I know people who do these things, but they're rare among those with a penchant for audio stuff.
  • Reply 205 of 301
    sphericspheric Posts: 2,560member
    atlapple wrote: »
    I understand it. I also understand its a failure on the part of Cook. To allow analysts and the markets to speculate sales numbers on a product that was hyped this much is idiotic. 

    To allow the Swiss watch industry to do so, however, is a brilliant move.
  • Reply 206 of 301
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 13,002member
    spheric wrote: »
    dasanman69 wrote: »
    I think I have a valid point. I also don't think it's a sound business strategy if the success of your product depends on people dying. A lot can change between now and then.

    Apple succeeds by focusing on the people who follow after them, not by focusing on those who "die out". Skating to where the puck will be, etc., yadda yadda.

    But everyone dies out. Apple wouldn't be very successful if it only focused on it's followers because before the iPod it really didn't have very many. Apple gets new followers by focusing on a younger generation because that generation gets constantly refreshed.
  • Reply 208 of 301
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    spheric wrote: »
    What does needing to study and program in Swift have to do with active interest in technology and consumer electronics?

    I mean, I love my high-end stereo, mainly because I dig music. I have ZERO interest in designing my own amplifier or building a turntable. I know people who do these things, but they're rare among those with a penchant for audio stuff.

    1) My statement was that a septuagenarian learning a new programming language is highly atypical. Why don't you explain to me how that is typical. Now, if we put Dick into a group with those that share his atypically high intelligence maybe a general interest in technology isn't as uncommon, but I would bet learning a new programming language in your 70s is. Perhaps Dick can let us know how many people in his age group he comes across that are still leaning a new language (or any kind, even spoken).

    2) If you design your own turntable or amplifier then you would also be atypical as this is not a common occurrence, even among people who have an active interest in technology and music, especially if you are in your 70s.
  • Reply 209 of 301
    spheric wrote: »
    atlapple wrote: »
    I understand it. I also understand its a failure on the part of Cook. To allow analysts and the markets to speculate sales numbers on a product that was hyped this much is idiotic. 

    To allow the Swiss watch industry to do so, however, is a brilliant move.

    And that's the way Apple rolls! The detractors gonna' detract, regardless ...
  • Reply 210 of 301
    solipsismy wrote: »
    spheric wrote: »
    What does needing to study and program in Swift have to do with active interest in technology and consumer electronics?

    I mean, I love my high-end stereo, mainly because I dig music. I have ZERO interest in designing my own amplifier or building a turntable. I know people who do these things, but they're rare among those with a penchant for audio stuff.

    1) My statement was that as a septuagenarian learning a new programming language is highly atypical. Why don't you explain to me how that is typical. Now, if we put Dick into a group with those that share his atypically high intelligence maybe a general interest in technology isn't as uncommon, but I would bet learning a new programming language in your 70s is. Perhaps Dick can let us know how many people in his age group he comes across that are still leaning a new language (or any kind, even spoken).

    2) If you design your own turntable or amplifier then you would also be atypical as this is not a common occurrence, even among people who have an active interest in technology and music, especially if you are in your 70s.

    Sol, I think you give me too much credit. I first learned programming in 1956, before there were programming languages, and few assemblers. I was employed in the programming industry until 1980 -- and learned most of the popular programming languages. To this day I have an active interest in programming -- that's why I learned Swift ... BTW, I'm not a very good programmer.

    By comparison, my Dad and Uncle were self-taught pioneers in radio, and tried to interest me in that discipline. They helped me build a superheterodyne (or somesuch) radio in 1949. Not interested.

    Then there's woodworking -- I am self-taught in woodworking because it interests me -- and, I guess it's in my genes (my Dad and maternal grandfather).

    My Dad experimented with Sound Systems -- HiFi, then stereos in the 1950s. He didn't have much money so he'd cobble together parts, instruments and such from war surplus, build a system -- then sell it to have the money to work on a new one. He realized he needed to have attractive cabinets -- so he built a table saw (he built a table saw) out of an old refrigerator motor and an abandoned kitchen cabinet. He made some fantastic Sound Systems (AM/FM radio, LP record players) and Speakers all enclosed in beautiful cabinets that he designed and made. But, he never aspired to the woodworking -- it was a means to an end for his interest in Sound Systems.


    This is a long way of saying that it is a fallacy to assume that older people are set in their ways because they are not interested in technology -- which interests you, I and most here.

    By the same token, just because someone is older and has similar interests -- does not make them exceptional ...   just interested!


    Now, that's Jazz!
  • Reply 211 of 301
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    "Apple Watch. Nuestra creación más personal hasta ahora. Desde U$S 949."

    that was taken from one of the authorize resellers here in my country, Uruguay. Apple Watch, our most personal creation yet. starting at 949 US dollars for the 38mm Sport version.

    Daaaaaamn

    Uruguay's economy has been wracked with extremely high inflation, among other historical economic problems: http://countrystudies.us/uruguay/53.htm
  • Reply 212 of 301
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Then there's woodworking -- I am self-taught in woodworking because it interests me -- and, I guess it's in my genes (my Dad and maternal grandfather).

    My Dad experimented with Sound Systems -- HiFi, then stereos in the 1950s. He didn't have much money so he'd cobble together parts, instruments and such from war surplus, build a system -- then sell it to have the money to work on a new one. He realized he needed to have attractive cabinets -- so he built a table saw (he built a table saw) out of an old refrigerator motor and an abandoned kitchen cabinet. He made some fantastic Sound Systems (AM/FM radio, LP record players) and Speakers all enclosed in beautiful cabinets that he designed and made. But, he never aspired to the woodworking -- it was a means to an end for his interest in Sound Systems.


    This is a long way of saying that it is a fallacy to assume that older people are set in their ways because they are not interested in technology -- which interests you, I and most here.

    Perhaps my interactions with humanity are too limited but I would contend that you're father is also exceptional, and nature and/or nurture resulted in that same atypical desire for discovery that continued throughout your life.
    By the same token, just because someone is older and has similar interests -- does not make them exceptional ...   just interested!!

    My experience with people is they typically avoid change as adults. Loss of control, competency concerns, feeling stupid, the additional work needed, and increased uncertainty seem to be the primary reasons people avoid change. The typical person finds a comfort zone and stays there. I know I'm atypical, and I know that many people here are atypical, several of which have become friends which I have interacted with for years outside of this forum. I didn't mean to signal you out but you are unique because of your age, interests, and intelligence… and it's something I appreciate, respect, and aspire to as time passes on.


    PS: Rent Tim's Vermeer (it's on iTunes Store). This is something I think every child should watch since it shows how a seemingly insurmountable task can be conquered just one step at a time. As culture continually moves toward "instant gratification" I feel seeing how discovery and breaking down difficult tasks into smaller goals is a skill that will need to be taught more often. I may have mentioned this film before but your comments on woodworking made me think of it again.
  • Reply 213 of 301
    solipsismy wrote: »


    PS: Rent Tim's Vermeer (it's on iTunes Store). This is something I think every child should watch since it shows how a seemingly insurmountable task can be conquered just one step at a time. As culture continually moves toward "instant gratification" I feel seeing how discovery and breaking down difficult tasks into smaller goals is a skill that will need to be taught more often. I may have mentioned this film before but your comments on woodworking made me think of it again.

    Now, that interests me (are you sure you're not older). Thanks for the recommendation and the perspective. I bought it -- as I think it is something the family will want to watch together, and multiple times.
  • Reply 214 of 301
    I suspect that the Apple Watch will have apps (including Siri) to control the New AppleTV -- and through the New AppleTV, the TV Set, Cable Box (if any), Home Theater components, etc.

    And if Apple TV becomes a Home Kit hub, then Apple Watch may be your UI to control much more: garage doors, home security, etc.
  • Reply 215 of 301
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    slprescott wrote: »
    And if Apple TV becomes a Home Kit hub, then Apple Watch may be your UI to control much more: garage doors, home security, etc.

    I would expect the Apple Watch to work with many things but it's not an ideal remote control for anything other than in a pinch. I want a dedicated remote for my Apple TV and I want a dedicated button for opening my garage door. If I have to raise my wrist, press in the crown, tap the specific app, wait for it to open, and then use a 1" display for controlling the device you're not going to be happy if this is primary option.
  • Reply 216 of 301
    atlappleatlapple Posts: 496member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by spheric View Post





    It was Cook's FOURTH major product release. He was there for the iPod, iPhone, and iPad, and actually in charge of the numbers for at least the last two of those.



    There is a clear competitive advantage to not releasing the numbers on a completely uncharted market.



    End of story.



    No it wasn't, iPod, iPhone and iPad were all established products. The Apple Watch is Cooks first major release. End of story.

  • Reply 217 of 301
    solipsismy wrote: »


    PS: Rent Tim's Vermeer (it's on iTunes Store). This is something I think every child should watch since it shows how a seemingly insurmountable task can be conquered just one step at a time. As culture continually moves toward "instant gratification" I feel seeing how discovery and breaking down difficult tasks into smaller goals is a skill that will need to be taught more often. I may have mentioned this film before but your comments on woodworking made me think of it again.

    Now, that interests me (are you sure you're not older). Thanks for the recommendation and the perspective. I bought it -- as I think it is something the family will want to watch together, and multiple times.


    Yeesus Marta!


    That was an amazing experience -- like seeing a sculpture emerge from a block of marble or wood.


    My grandson missed the part where he first showed the technique of matching color, not painting anything, just matching color -- and a painting of a photo of his grandfather emerged on the canvas. Later, while recreating the Vermeer, he got very interested -- we'll watch again later.


    Edit:

    Here's the trailer:


    [VIDEO]

     
  • Reply 218 of 301
    solipsismy wrote: »
    If I have to raise my wrist, press in the crown, tap the specific app, wait for it to open, and then use a 1" display for controlling the device you're not going to be happy if this is primary option.

    I agree it'd be a lousy VISUAL remote.

    What I'm envisioning is my Watch + Siri as a voice-based remote:

    "Hey Siri: close my garage door."
    "Hey Siri: raise the indoor temperature by 3 degrees."
    "Hey Siri: make my dog stop barking."

    (That last one will depend on Apple's future release of PetKit.)
  • Reply 219 of 301
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    slprescott wrote: »
    I agree it'd be a lousy VISUAL remote.

    What I'm envisioning is my Watch + Siri as a voice-based remote:

    "Hey Siri: close my garage door."
    "Hey Siri: raise the indoor temperature by 3 degrees."
    "Hey Siri: make my dog stop barking."

    (That last one will depend on Apple's future release of PetKit.)

    That offers a slight shortcut, but it's still not ideal. One of the biggest issues with Siri isn't that she doesn't correctly hear what you say, but that she isn't smart enough to correctly parse what you mean as easily as a dedicated voice activated device could. For example, if the remote control for the next Apple TV had a microphone and button that relayed to the Apple TV that talked to the Siri servers then a command like "Play" "Open ESPN," or "Set reminder to record Review with Forrest MacNeil" might make sense, but if we're talking about Siri on Watch, iPhone or iPad those same commands would have to be parsed for context first. "Play" may assume you want the Music app (or whatever the last app on that device was doing) to play, and not the TV. "Open ESPN" might not mean the channel on the TV, but the app on the device you're using for the remote, and "Set reminder to record Review with Forrest MacNeil" may assume you want to simply put an item into the Reminders app that will sync with iCloud, not a DVR setting.

    Siri will get more intelligent but I don't see her being able to get that much smarter than quickly that would make a dedicated remote with voice commands obsolete. In fact, my Amazon Echo is worlds better than Siri and a big part of that it's a stationary device that you only interact with in a particular way.
  • Reply 220 of 301
    atlappleatlapple Posts: 496member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    LOL what an amazing number of logical fallacies in one post.



    You won't answer the key question because we both know the answer. So instead of a long post I will make it simple. Given Cook's previous statement about not releasing Apple Watch numbers are you actually going to try and tell me if the numbers were a benefit to Apple and it's shareholders he would have not done a 180 and released the numbers? That's a fairly simple question. 

     

    Second I was making several hypotheses : "a supposition or proposed explanation made on the basis of limited evidence as a starting point for further investigation."

     

    That come to a fairly reasonable conclusion given the limited evidence. Apple has a problem right now and that problem is Apple needed the Apple Watch to be their next blockbuster product. Right now as far as the market is concerned Apple is a one hit wonder right now and that wonder is the iPhone. Apple is the iPhone and if the iPhone numbers slump at some point so will our stock. 

     

    Of course the defenders on the forum will come siting numbers about growth, profits and how big and power Apple is, and all that is true. However at one time it was also true for Microsoft, GM, IBM, GE Capital and many others. 

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