There was no real existing market for SMARTwatches prior to the Apple Watch.
Now, while we're at it, take another look at those first statistics:
30 million Swiss watches per year. Average price of $740.
That looks like EXACTLY what Apple has created. As in, holy shit, what a perfect fit.
If Apple sells even "just" ten million a year, ASP $750 (entry-level non-Sports Watch), they're KILLING IT in the watch industry (and pulling in over 7 billion dollars revenue, even - way more than Rolex or Omega).
you're still not getting it. I'm not talking about Walkmans. I'm talking about digital music players -- they were niche devices. they had crappy software. Apple fixed them and single handedly turned digital music players into a device so common that even non-technical senior citizens carried them around.
if you still don't get it then you're either blind, or trolling.
No. You don't get it. Portable music players were huge. Who cares if they were hard drive or tape based? That's not the point. People already carried their music around and Apple made it better. The Watch is not s better mousetrap in the same way.
Yes, on the strength of a single product that pulls in 70%+ of their revenue. The Watch, on the other hand, is obviously not selling well and there's no love for it out in the wild, not like we see with iPhone. No enthusiasm. Like I said, if they are trying to get into the "luxury" market, good luck with that!
ah so you have a set opinion on the Watch (and likely Apple) and are looking to box the world into that opinion. got it, thanks for clearing that up. we call that trolling.
Apple owns all of the profit in mobile.
Apple owns all of the profit in PCs.
Apple knows more about "smart business" in its pinky finger than you will likely know in your entire life.
Nobody knows how the Watch is selling, but Cook said well on a public earnings call.
Maybe because "affordable luxury" is an oxymoron? Give me a break. They are a consumer electronics company. Not a fashion brand. If they think they're become s fashion brand, like I said, bumpy road ahead. You obviously have a very short memory. I've been buying Apple stuff for over 30 years. Their epic rise happened in the last few years. So they are big and successful today. Wildly successful. But they spent decades slugging it out and staying afloat. What goes up can come down fast if you make bad choices.
yes, they are a CE company, but at one point they were called a computer company -- which proves how able Apple is at pivoting and avoiding pitfalls.
now, let's see how many troll-tropes you're fulfilling now...:
- CONCERNED (check)
- long time customer (check)
- Apple has nowhere to go but down (check)
No one can prove they are wrong because Apple didn't release any numbers. Besides doom and gloom is to be expected the way Apple hyped this watch. They had Jony Ive out taking pictures with fashion designers that looked they they died ten years ago. This was the product that was going to change the fashion industry.
Also I fully believe that Apple did not release the numbers because right now the doom and gloom predictions are not as bad as the actual numbers. Apple is using terms like 'beat internal expectations/numbers" or sales are healthy. It defies logic if the numbers were great and would stop the bad press Apple would release the numbers. Clearly the numbers aren't good or are at least bad enough Apple believes they would hurt the stock price.
The whole we don't want to let the competition know how well it's doing is BS. The iPhone is the most copied product in history and they release numbers days after the iPhone 6 was released.
We've told you before that Apple said in the fall no numbers will be released. Why don't you understand that fact.
As for Cook, hey Tim, if you're so worried about analysts looking too much into reports like these from your suppliers, maybe your should release actual sales numbers instead of cooking your books by burying those figures under headphones and adapter cables. Fact is the enemy of speculation. That's fine if sales didn't get off to a great start for one reason or another. Sales of the original iPhone sucked until Steve himself admitted the misstep and dropped the price substantially. I think history and AAPL stock numbers clearly illustrate how that worked out, so why the lack of honesty? Come clean, admit what everyone but diehard fanboys already know, and do better. The August Best Buy launch is a great step, keep it up. We don't expect you or Apple to be perfect, we just expect you to try harder than anyone else, and be HONEST about it, not treat us like idiot children.
Actually Cook doesn't give a shit about analysts.
How is he treating us like idiot children? Are you saying he's lying about the finances of a public company?
Give me a break. What can a competitor possibly learn from announcing sales numbers other than the fact that it's not a market worth pursuing? Seriously. That was pure spin. Apple is under no obligation to announce sales numbers, but let's be real. If they had blown the doors off and sold 10 million units in the first week, they would have been shouting it with glee from every roof top, competition be damned.
Easy. Competitors can know if it was a home run or not and whether to blatantly copy it.
No. You don't get it. Portable music players were huge. Who cares if they were hard drive or tape based? That's not the point. People already carried their music around and Apple made it better. The Watch is not s better mousetrap in the same way.
the point has never been about music players. it was the erroneous claim that Apple didn't have much to do with the success of music players. they did. Walkmans were still a niche device, and nowhere near as ubiquitous as iPods became. only Apple turned them into 100% mainstream devices found in any household. Sony failed. it's hard for you, I know.
Watches are a huge business. Smart watches no. People who spent thousands of dollars in luxury watches buy them for the craftsmanship, collectibility, etc. It's not the same thing. With music players people were already used to carrying around music and Apple delivered a better way to do do. I don't see the Watch as an improvement over traditional watches and I don't think consumers do either. It's a gadget first and foremost, a watch second, and will be treated as such by the market.
Clueless post.
Read spheric's post #63 above, and educate yourself.
No. You don't get it. Portable music players were huge. Who cares if they were hard drive or tape based? That's not the point. People already carried their music around and Apple made it better. The Watch is not s better mousetrap in the same way.
My watch lets me carry around music. It's equivalent to a 1GB iPod Shuffle, except with a touch screen, wireless sound to Bluetooth headphone or car stereos, wireless syncing, it has apps the Shuffle and Nano don't have, and it's water resistant. So The Watch is in fact a better mousetrap in exactly the same way!
the point has never been about music players. it was the erroneous claim that Apple didn't have much to do with the success of music players. they did. Walkmans were still a niche device, and nowhere near as ubiquitous as iPods became. only Apple turned them into 100% mainstream devices found in any household. Sony failed. it's hard for you, I know.
Apple has sold about as many iPods in 14 years as Sony sold Walkmen in 30 (400 million, half of those tape-based).
Somehow, I got on a mailing list targeted at Millennials ... It seems to target my teenage grandkids and and their parents who have have money to spend (theirs, or their parents).
I didn't kill the mail because it gives me some insight what the sellers think their customers will buy:
Most of the items are somewhat unique and somewhat pricey (to my mind) ...
They seem to be catering to those who want to set themselves apart by their taste in clothes, accessories ...
In my day it was described as: [I] Someone who wanted to be a non-conformist -- like everybody else.[/I]
If Apple sells even "just" ten million a year, ASP $750 (entry-level non-Sports Watch), they're KILLING IT in the watch industry (and pulling in over 7 billion dollars revenue, even - way more than Rolex or Omega).
I like most of your comment but the ASP is not likely to be anywhere close to $750. You have to know Sport is the most commonly sold model, right? Using estimates on the low end I'll say that out of 12 Sports models sold 1 is a SS model, and out of 1200 SS models sold 1 is the Edition model.
Edition: 1 × $13,500* = $13,500 ASP for the Edition models Watch: 1,200 × $776.50** = $931,800 ASP for the Watch models Sport: 14,000 × $386.50*** = $5,411,000 ASP for the Sport models
- - -
$5,411,000 + $931,800 + $13,500 = $6,356,300 ÷ 15,201 = $418.15 ASP
Feel free to check my maths, as well as alter assumed unknowns and placeholders, but if you do please state some sort of reasoning for, example, why you think that Edition likely sells one model for ever 100 SS Watch's sold, not 1,200.
* With no real info to go on I calculated the Edition ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. Both come out to $13,500.
** With no real info to go on I calculated the Watch ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. The mean is $764 and the median is $824 I think took the mean average of those to get $794. I then assumed, based on anecdotes, that the 42mm model outsells the 38mm for the same styling so I will calculated that $50 per unit to happen 25% more. That comes out to $819.
*** With no real info to go on I calculated the Sport ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. Both come out to $374. I then assumed, based on anecdotes, that the 42mm model outsells the 38mm for the same styling so I will calculated that $50 per unit to happen 25% more. That comes out to $386.50.
If Apple sells even "just" ten million a year, ASP $750 (entry-level non-Sports Watch), they're KILLING IT in the watch industry (and pulling in over 7 billion dollars revenue, even - way more than Rolex or Omega).
I like most of your comment but the ASP is not likely to be anywhere close to $750. You have to know Sport is the most commonly sold model, right? Using estimates on the low end I'll say that out of 12 Sports models sold 1 is a SS model, and out of 1200 SS models sold 1 is the Edition model.
Edition: 1 × $13,500* = $13,500 ASP for the Edition models Watch: 1,200 × $776.50** = $931,800 ASP for the Watch models Sport: 14,000 × $386.50*** = $5,411,000 ASP for the Sport models
- - -
$5,411,000 + $931,800 + $13,500 = $6,356,300 ÷ 15,201 = $418.15 ASP
Feel free to check my maths, as well as alter assumed unknowns and placeholders, but if you do please state some sort of reasoning for, example, why you think that Edition likely sells one model for ever 100 SS Watch's sold, not 1,200.
* With no real info to go on I calculated the Edition ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. Both come out to $13,500.
** With no real info to go on I calculated the Watch ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. The mean is $764 and the median is $824 I think took the mean average of those to get $794. I then assumed, based on anecdotes, that the 42mm model outsells the 38mm for the same styling so I will calculated that $50 per unit to happen 25% more. That comes out to $819.
*** With no real info to go on I calculated the Sport ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. Both come out to $374. I then assumed, based on anecdotes, that the 42mm model outsells the 38mm for the same styling so I will calculated that $50 per unit to happen 25% more. That comes out to $386.50.
Your numbers sound reasonable ...
There are also some intangibles -- Watch accessories -- extra bands and extra chargers ... both very high profit.
Anecdotally, our household of 5 has:
6 Apple Watches (1 for development)
5 38mm, 1 42mm
3 SS, 3 Sport
9 bands
7 Sport bands, 2 Milanese Loops
10 chargers
Everyone has 2 chargers -- one in their bedroom one downstairs (same with iPhone/iPad chargers) -- avoids fights!
It is interesting to me, that the kids will change bands to suit their whim of the moment.
Finally, I expect a large volume of Watches will be sold in the Sep - Dec timeframe -- for gifts and as the ApplePay penetration grows ...
It just doesn't get any easier than paying with your Apple Watch!
Everyone has 2 chargers -- one in their bedroom one downstairs (same with iPhone/iPad chargers) -- avoids fights!
1) So what is your household's ASP? It looks to be around $300 more than what I calculated.
2) I am surprised that over 80% are the 38mm Watches and that you have so many extra bands, an extra charger.
It just doesn't get any easier than paying with your Apple Watch!
I have yet to do this successfully, but that might be because of wOS 2.0.
PS: Are the chargers with the metal on them have a more powerful magnet than the plastic ones that come with the Sport model or are sold as an accessory? My biggest issue is just how easily it pops off the charger.
Comments
And there we have the same dichotomy that characterizes most discussion about Apple Watch:
There are over one billion watches sold every year, with 30 million of those being Swiss watches (which includes Swatch). Average sales price of a Swiss watch is about $740.
http://www.statisticbrain.com/wrist-watch-industry-statistics/
There was no real existing market for SMARTwatches prior to the Apple Watch.
Now, while we're at it, take another look at those first statistics:
30 million Swiss watches per year. Average price of $740.
That looks like EXACTLY what Apple has created. As in, holy shit, what a perfect fit.
If Apple sells even "just" ten million a year, ASP $750 (entry-level non-Sports Watch), they're KILLING IT in the watch industry (and pulling in over 7 billion dollars revenue, even - way more than Rolex or Omega).
No. You don't get it. Portable music players were huge. Who cares if they were hard drive or tape based? That's not the point. People already carried their music around and Apple made it better. The Watch is not s better mousetrap in the same way.
ah so you have a set opinion on the Watch (and likely Apple) and are looking to box the world into that opinion. got it, thanks for clearing that up. we call that trolling.
Apple owns all of the profit in mobile.
Apple owns all of the profit in PCs.
Apple knows more about "smart business" in its pinky finger than you will likely know in your entire life.
Nobody knows how the Watch is selling, but Cook said well on a public earnings call.
yes, they are a CE company, but at one point they were called a computer company -- which proves how able Apple is at pivoting and avoiding pitfalls.
now, let's see how many troll-tropes you're fulfilling now...:
- CONCERNED (check)
- long time customer (check)
- Apple has nowhere to go but down (check)
it doesn't take much logic to identify a troll.
We've told you before that Apple said in the fall no numbers will be released. Why don't you understand that fact.
Actually Cook doesn't give a shit about analysts.
How is he treating us like idiot children? Are you saying he's lying about the finances of a public company?
Easy. Competitors can know if it was a home run or not and whether to blatantly copy it.
the point has never been about music players. it was the erroneous claim that Apple didn't have much to do with the success of music players. they did. Walkmans were still a niche device, and nowhere near as ubiquitous as iPods became. only Apple turned them into 100% mainstream devices found in any household. Sony failed. it's hard for you, I know.
Clueless post.
Read spheric's post #63 above, and educate yourself.
Apple isn't building a smartwatch to compete with smartwatches. They're building a WATCH to compete with WATCHES, and adding "smart" functionality.
Who puts the minimum level at 2 million watches sold per month? They expect Apple to sell at least 24 million watches in its first year?
My watch lets me carry around music. It's equivalent to a 1GB iPod Shuffle, except with a touch screen, wireless sound to Bluetooth headphone or car stereos, wireless syncing, it has apps the Shuffle and Nano don't have, and it's water resistant. So The Watch is in fact a better mousetrap in exactly the same way!
Apple has sold about as many iPods in 14 years as Sony sold Walkmen in 30 (400 million, half of those tape-based).
The only thing clueless are people who are trying to convince themselves the Watch is a hit and that the public wants smart watches.
We've found our new Ben Frost.
I didn't kill the mail because it gives me some insight what the sellers think their customers will buy:
Most of the items are somewhat unique and somewhat pricey (to my mind) ...
They seem to be catering to those who want to set themselves apart by their taste in clothes, accessories ...
In my day it was described as: [I] Someone who wanted to be a non-conformist -- like everybody else.[/I]
[URL=http://fancy.com]http://fancy.com[/URL]
FWIW, this site often features Watches, ranging in price from > $100 - > $45,000.
[IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/61424/width/350/height/700[/IMG] [IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/61423/width/350/height/700[/IMG]
It appears that someone thinks there is a viable market for watches in this price range:
We have an analyst in our midst! Yea!!
Read my posts for some actual numbers.
I like most of your comment but the ASP is not likely to be anywhere close to $750. You have to know Sport is the most commonly sold model, right? Using estimates on the low end I'll say that out of 12 Sports models sold 1 is a SS model, and out of 1200 SS models sold 1 is the Edition model.
Watch: 1,200 × $776.50** = $931,800 ASP for the Watch models
Sport: 14,000 × $386.50*** = $5,411,000 ASP for the Sport models
- - -
$5,411,000 + $931,800 + $13,500 = $6,356,300 ÷ 15,201 = $418.15 ASP
Feel free to check my maths, as well as alter assumed unknowns and placeholders, but if you do please state some sort of reasoning for, example, why you think that Edition likely sells one model for ever 100 SS Watch's sold, not 1,200.
* With no real info to go on I calculated the Edition ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. Both come out to $13,500.
** With no real info to go on I calculated the Watch ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. The mean is $764 and the median is $824 I think took the mean average of those to get $794. I then assumed, based on anecdotes, that the 42mm model outsells the 38mm for the same styling so I will calculated that $50 per unit to happen 25% more. That comes out to $819.
*** With no real info to go on I calculated the Sport ASP based on calculating the mean and median price. Both come out to $374. I then assumed, based on anecdotes, that the 42mm model outsells the 38mm for the same styling so I will calculated that $50 per unit to happen 25% more. That comes out to $386.50.
Your numbers sound reasonable ...
There are also some intangibles -- Watch accessories -- extra bands and extra chargers ... both very high profit.
Anecdotally, our household of 5 has:
Everyone has 2 chargers -- one in their bedroom one downstairs (same with iPhone/iPad chargers) -- avoids fights!
It is interesting to me, that the kids will change bands to suit their whim of the moment.
Finally, I expect a large volume of Watches will be sold in the Sep - Dec timeframe -- for gifts and as the ApplePay penetration grows ...
It just doesn't get any easier than paying with your Apple Watch!
1) So what is your household's ASP? It looks to be around $300 more than what I calculated.
2) I am surprised that over 80% are the 38mm Watches and that you have so many extra bands, an extra charger.
I have yet to do this successfully, but that might be because of wOS 2.0.
PS: Are the chargers with the metal on them have a more powerful magnet than the plastic ones that come with the Sport model or are sold as an accessory? My biggest issue is just how easily it pops off the charger.