Rumor: Disaster at MWNY... :(

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  • Reply 201 of 266
    eskimoeskimo Posts: 474member
    [quote]Originally posted by b8rtm8nn:

    <strong>I forgot all about Moto's fab's, Programmer. When their financial problems really hit the fan 2-3 yrs ago they started shutting down fabs, then started laying off people, then sarted centralizing the org - all in reverse order to what normal companies do. At some point, they realized that putting all the working, reliable equipment in the same fab increased their yields. Now they were generating products at closer to the theoretical numbers they used to quote to their customers.



    After making an actual profit based on this exerience, they figured they could try keeping a few fabs instead of selling them off (which they considered). I actually think that we will get better than 1.2 Ghz chips next month, now that I think about it.</strong><hr></blockquote>





    It was more than their equipment, it was a factor of their priorities and policies. Friends and co-workers of mine quit Moto after endless frustration at managements inability to listen to their suggestions on how to improve defectivity and yield.



    To contribute to this thread a good friend of mine who is a former Moto employee talked to some of his old co-workers this week. The rumor inside of Moto itself is that they will no longer be producing CPUs for Apple in the future. Apple has decided to go with someone else. Whether that is IBM I don't know, but if Moto's own employees are whispering about it, there certainly is some credence to those rumors. And since this person barely knows who Apple is and would never bring the subject up in conversation I put some stock in it.
  • Reply 202 of 266
    junkyard dawgjunkyard dawg Posts: 2,801member
    So it's true. Every reliable source points towards Apple ditching Moto and their sorry-ass G5....but in favor of who? IBM? A scaled down Power chip? If so, then that is a LONG ways off, too long. Also, if true, then it means we can expect squat from Moto in the meantime. 1.2 GHz G4s, no sh!t, that's probably as good as it gets before IBM steps in.



    Why didn't Apple do this SOONER? That's my question. Clearly Apple has been sucking Moto's old, gnarly tit far too long.
  • Reply 203 of 266
    bungebunge Posts: 7,329member
    [quote]Originally posted by Junkyard Dawg:

    <strong>...A scaled down Power chip? If so, then that is a LONG ways off, too long...Why didn't Apple do this SOONER? That's my question. Clearly Apple has been sucking Moto's old, gnarly tit far too long.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    If it's true, there's no reason to think that this wasn't decided upon more than a year ago.
  • Reply 204 of 266
    sc_marktsc_markt Posts: 1,393member
    Here is part of an article from siliconstrategies.com, dated 4/4/02. The 2nd paragraph sounds like it says that Motorola's getting out of the personal computer business.



    "In another filing with the SEC, Motorola said its new semiconductor strategy, adopted in response to

    last year's downturn, ?is to focus our internal manufacturing capacity on leading edge and specialty technologies, while supplementing our internal manufacturing capacity with joint venture manufacturing facilities and purchases of products from outside vendors, primarily foundries.?



    The new business model calls for focusing on providing silicon-to-software solutions to the wireless communications, networking and transportation markets because the company believes that these are growth markets, the filing said. ?The personal computer market is maturing, and is dominated by a single well-entrenched competitor, providing little opportunity for us,? it added."



    One thing the article mentioned that I didn't know was that Apple was one of their (Motorola's) top 10 customers last year.



    Here is the link to the article.

    <a href="http://www.siliconstrategies.com/story/OEG20020403S0039"; target="_blank">http://www.siliconstrategies.com/story/OEG20020403S0039</a>;
  • Reply 205 of 266
    mokimoki Posts: 551member
    [quote]Originally posted by Junkyard Dawg:

    <strong>So it's true. Every reliable source points towards Apple ditching Moto and their sorry-ass G5....but in favor of who? IBM? A scaled down Power chip? If so, then that is a LONG ways off, too long. </strong><hr></blockquote>



    You're assuming that just because you haven't heard about something, it hasn't been happening for quite some time.



    I bet there will be some interesting stuff going on next year.
  • Reply 206 of 266
    programmerprogrammer Posts: 3,409member
    [quote]Originally posted by moki:

    <strong>You're assuming that just because you haven't heard about something, it hasn't been happening for quite some time.



    I bet there will be some interesting stuff going on next year.</strong><hr></blockquote>





    There you go again, Moki.



    My guess would be that when the G4 debacle happened Steve threw a fit and sent his chief hardware engineers on a mission to find alternatives. IBM may have been the only one, and I'd expect that Apple would have given both potential suppliers an opportunity to prove themselves. Once enough work had been done to make a solid decision, Apple would have awarded a contract. Shortly thereafter is when Motorola revamped their roadmap and ditched pretty much any sign of desktop processors. That would make next year a reasonable time frame for the "replacement killer" processor.



    The real question is: did Moto continue on with the 7500 for their own purposes, and if so will Apple use it? MOSR seems to think so, but I'm not convinced.
  • Reply 207 of 266
    Next year is too long. MWSF? Apple could pull through by the skin of their teeth. But any later, and game over. Apple cannot sell 1 GHz Powermacs against 3.5 GHz Pentium boxes, it just ain't gonna happen.



    I fear that by the time the G5 arrives, Apple's user base will have migrated to Wintel.
  • Reply 208 of 266
    bartobarto Posts: 2,246member
    My gut says that 2003 will be a big year. Thanks moki for making me feel a bit better



    Ryan Meader's infected, ulcered gut says that a "7500" will debut MWNY. Well, slap my bitch.



    What goes up on MOSR is no more reliable than me or you (with possible exeptions of smart people/insiders like Programmer, Moki, JYD, maybedorsal etc).



    They got the cube wrong. Apple Insider predicted it pretty good, MOSR came up with crap like a PCI slot and 10" instead of 8", replacing the Power Mac etc etc.



    Barto
  • Reply 209 of 266
    bigcbigc Posts: 1,224member
    [quote]Originally posted by Junkyard Dawg:

    <strong>Next year is too long. MWSF? Apple could pull through by the skin of their teeth. But any later, and game over. Apple cannot sell 1 GHz Powermacs against 3.5 GHz Pentium boxes, it just ain't gonna happen.



    I fear that by the time the G5 arrives, Apple's user base will have migrated to Wintel.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    Too long for whom? You. I have patience and my dual gigger is pretty good for what I do, it could always be faster but patience is a virtue.



    Besides all this means is that no one who's even making Apples next processor. Maybe AMD is already working on it ( for you windows lovers).
  • Reply 210 of 266
    Not too long for me at all. My 400 MHz G4 is doing fine, thank you.



    But too long for creative professionals who demand performance. They will be dropping the Mac platform like a bad habit unless a revolutionary Powermac lineup is introduced at MWNY. You can bet on it. Already it's happening, just look at pro sales, they have tanked.



    Apple can buy up all the creative companies they want, but in the end it comes down to value and performance.
  • Reply 211 of 266
    trumptmantrumptman Posts: 16,455member
    This is the strongest case yet for Apple not having a massive update in July, and I will tell you what it will be. The fact that people are alleging insider trading on Apple due to the fact that so many execs, filed and sold their stock before their announcement about a sales shortfall.



    These same execs that "didn't know" about the shortfall and selling their stock before it was announced also know if there is a real update in July that would cause the same said stock to rebound.



    Based off of that I believe we will have the iMac staying with GF2mx and being bumped to 1 ghz across the line with only the drives and ram changing the price. They will also get a 133 mhz bus and a price drop. eMac will also get 1 ghz across the line, drives/ram changing price points, but will stay at 100 mhz bus.



    The PowerMac line will get dual processors at 933, 1 ghz, and 1.2 ghz. Superdrives will be standard. Radeon 32 meg 7500 will remain on the low end and mid will keep 64 meg GF4mx and the top come standard with 128 meg Radeon 8500.



    Motorola will not have created a true DDR solution for Apple. Apple will have engineered around this with the same solution we saw in the xserve only now they will have had a little more time to improve it a bit more. Steve will explain that the DDR implementation is DDR all the way up to the processor just like in the xserve. However on the xserve the bus to the processor is still sdr-133 that is all the G4 will support.



    Apple will explain that their new dual processor machines now have two cpu buses instead of just one. The two buses are independent and can each access the DDR solution at their full sdr133 speed.



    Apple will also include ATA-RAID capability in the new PowerMacs, but will not be included in on the low end to help seperate the lines a bit. (dual 933 to dual 1 gig isn't much of a jump, but dual 1 gig to 1.2 is pretty large)



    Steve will announce that the prices have been dropped $300 across the board. ($200 on the low end) (Making all the folks who bought at the old price points feel like complete asses) He will also point out (just as he did before) that the previous high end Mac is now available with better throughput and drive options for $1000 less than it was just a week before.



    So new pricing



    $1399

    dual 933

    Radeon 7500w/32 megs

    superdrive

    256 ddr ram

    60 gig HD (no raid option)



    $1999

    dual 1 gig

    Geforce4mx w/64 megs

    superdrive

    512 megs ddr ram

    120 gig HD (possibility of raid option by adding drive or also added via Applestore)



    $2699

    dual 1.2 gig

    Radeon 8500 w/128 megs

    512 megs ddr

    superdrive 2 (just announced today in press release)

    dual 120 gig HD(with 8 meg cache) preconfigured in fast array.



    It will be enough for now and will raise PowerMac sales up to their old levels but Apple will sell less of the high end machine and thus make a smaller profit.



    I have no insider info, I just know Apple, and have been a Mac user since 1990.



    Trumptman



    [ 06-28-2002: Message edited by: trumptman ]</p>
  • Reply 212 of 266
    I don't think too many people have really put enough thought into the fact that Powerlogix and company are now selling 1GHz AIB's. Apple wouldn't have tolerated such a scenario if they didn't plan on having something substantially faster at MWNY. Of course, Moto may have said to Apple to hush up as they want to sell as many faster and more profitable processors as possible.



    IMO, there's gotta be more than just a 1.2 GHz coming out. I would venture and say there's at the very least a 1.4 GHz system coming out, and if anything less, Apple is finally in deep doodoo.
  • Reply 213 of 266
    programmerprogrammer Posts: 3,409member
    I don't think we'll ever seen a dual MPX bus setup -- it burdens the chipset too much with so many pins and bus snooping duties, not to mention the dual and single processor machines would need different chipsets and motherboards. And all this just for 6-12 months until the next big thing comes along. More likely we'll see exactly the Xserve solution, or a G4 w/ 166 MHz (which Motorola has mentioned).



    Other than that you're probably not far off.



    JYD: Hardware sales are off throughout the market, its not just Apple (nor just their Pro machines). Better machines would probably improve sales slightly, but I doubt it would be a very large effect.
  • Reply 214 of 266
    bungebunge Posts: 7,329member
    [quote]Originally posted by trumptman:

    <strong>This is the strongest case yet for Apple not having a massive update in July...</strong><hr></blockquote>



    This might not be a 'massive' update, but this would be a significant jump. Good enough to keep a lot of people happy.



    At any rate, it would not be a "Disaster at MWNY."
  • Reply 215 of 266
    27ray27ray Posts: 26member
    A Dp 933 with a superdrive and a 17" LDC for around $2000



    Not the 2.6GHz G5v we all wanted but $500 cheaper than my last purchase (a brand new pismo 400) and about 4 times faster, not bad for the "low end".



    Where do I sign.
  • Reply 216 of 266
    [quote]Originally posted by KidRed:

    <strong>Ok, if true then Apple will be bumping the towers by 200mhz at once.



    When was the last time Apple bumped 200 mhz? OR better yet, when has Apple ever bumped more then 200mhz?</strong><hr></blockquote>



    <img src="graemlins/oyvey.gif" border="0" alt="[No]" /> Uhh, you're looking at the wrong numbers. Speed increases "used to be" improvements upon a common mulitplier. As when the G4 came out at 400-450-500,(or should have) it superseded the then top 300 G3. So though 500 is 200 more than 300, the important number is the percentage of increase...1.66 times faster. So it is not unreasonable to expect a 1.6ghz g4. Though I won't hold my breath for it. But face it, the only times that we weren't just a little "let down" at a MWxp were when new generation computers were unveiled.



    [ 06-29-2002: Message edited by: imaviligidiot ]</p>
  • Reply 217 of 266
    flounderflounder Posts: 2,674member
    In response to trumptman's post.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but haven't apple execs simply FILED to sell their shares. I don't believe they have actually been sold yet.
  • Reply 218 of 266
    daverdaver Posts: 496member
    [quote]Originally posted by imaviligidiot:

    <strong>As when the G4 came out at 400-450-500,(or should have) it superseded the then top 300 G3.</strong><hr></blockquote>



    Actually, B&W G3 Power Macs were shipping at 450 MHz before the G4 debuted a few months later.



    The biggest MHz jump we've seen from Apple was the introduction of the 733 MHz Power Mac G4 at MWSF 2001, which finally superseded those with 500 MHz chips.
  • Reply 219 of 266
    bigcbigc Posts: 1,224member
    Yeah, got one of them
  • Reply 220 of 266
    programmerprogrammer Posts: 3,409member
    [quote]Originally posted by Daver:

    <strong>

    Actually, B&W G3 Power Macs were shipping at 450 MHz before the G4 debuted a few months later.



    The biggest MHz jump we've seen from Apple was the introduction of the 733 MHz Power Mac G4 at MWSF 2001, which finally superseded those with 500 MHz chips.</strong><hr></blockquote>





    Which was a 46.6% clock rate jump, for those who are math-impaired.
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