Wall Street expects $51B in revenue, record 47.8M iPhone sales from Apple's Sept. quarter

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited October 2015
Investors are eagerly awaiting the results of Apple's September quarter, due to be reported next Tuesday, in which it's expected Apple will report record sales of 47.8 million iPhones.




Market consensus estimates were shared in a research note on Friday by analyst Gene Munster of Piper Jaffray. In general, investors expect Apple will report revenue of $51 billion and gross margins about 39.3 percent for the three-month period.

As for the iPhone numbers, sales of 47.8 million units would easily exceed the 39 million units Apple sold in the same quarter a year ago.

Wall Street is also expecting sales of 5.7 million Macs and 10.5 million iPads for the period. In comparison, Apple sold 5.5 million Macs and 12.3 million iPads in the September 2014 quarter.

Munster's own estimates are slightly higher: He expects revenue as high as $51.5 billion and margins of 39.5 percent, with sales of between 48 million and 49 million iPhones.

Looking forward to the December quarter, Munster said that most investors expect that iPhone sales will actually be slightly down year over year. The analyst, however, said he doesn't agree with that assessment.

"We continue to believe that the iPhone 6s cycle will not be as bad as investors expect," he said, projecting that iPhone sales will grow 2 percent year over year in the holiday quarter.

All will be revealed next Tuesday, after markets close in the U.S., when Apple will report its September quarter results. AppleInsider will have full coverage.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 37
    At the risk of repeating myself, I find it insane that GOOG, AMZN, FB and MSFT are all up about 10% today, post-earnings. Although AAPL is sluggishly getting a sector boost, I fully expect the stock to drop after they give their numbers. It's nutty.
  • Reply 2 of 37
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post



    At the risk of repeating myself, I find it insane that GOOG, AMZN, FB and MSFT are all up about 10% today, post-earnings. Although AAPL is sluggishly getting a sector boost, I fully expect the stock to drop after they give their numbers. It's nutty.

     

    The conspiracy theory of the day is that the iPhone peaked with the larger-screen iPhone 6, and the 6s will have negative growth.

     

    Even a massive beat next week won't change the theory.

     

    If Apple can grow iPhone sales YOY in the holiday quarter, that is when the stock could take off.

  • Reply 3 of 37
    Apple needs to go private.

    There you are sog53 now there's no need to rant. It's all ready been posted ?
  • Reply 4 of 37
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post



    At the risk of repeating myself, I find it insane that GOOG, AMZN, FB and MSFT are all up about 10% today, post-earnings. Although AAPL is sluggishly getting a sector boost, I fully expect the stock to drop after they give their numbers. It's nutty.



    Even Volkswagen is up more than Apple!

  • Reply 5 of 37

    The bar is set so low for Amazon that pennies of profit lead to 10% jump.

    Why are Munster and the others setting the bar so high for Apple this quarter you would wonder? All the negatives about China and the US dollar etc, should be pushing expectations down. Wall Street want AAPL to go down and so what better way than make up some targets that will be very hard to beat?

     

    Apple (AAPL) is being set up. Again.

  • Reply 6 of 37
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by singularity View Post



    Apple needs to go private.



    There you are sog53 now there's no need to rant. It's all ready been posted ?

    singularity you aren't doing it right. 

     

    It's:

     

    "Apple needs to go private now! This Wall Street manipulation is a joke. Apples P/E ratio is 13.67!

     

    Apple could easily go private by... (lots of words)"

     

    Juuuust kidding with ya sog. ;)

     

    I honestly hope there is no self-ban BTW. You add a certain flavor to these forums that would be severely missed.

     

    If you do wind up self-banning, please just sign up with a different name. I really mean that.

  • Reply 7 of 37
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    Let me guess...Apple will have a great quarter and the stock will be flat or down the next day. And everyone will say it's about the future not past performance or they'll say the stock ran up going into earnings so not surprised it's selling off after. Meanwhile Microsoft, Google and Amazon are all up 8-10% after earnings. I think Microsoft is at a 10 year high. Why is it only with Apple that the actual numbers they report don't seem to matter? With everyone else it seems Wall Street looks at them as their best days are ahead and with Apple it's their best days are always in the rear.
  • Reply 8 of 37
    It must have taken weeks for the geniuses on Wall St to come up with those numbers.

    Apple Q3 Statement :

    "Apple is providing the following guidance for its fiscal 2015 fourth quarter:

    revenue between $49 billion and $51 billion
    gross margin between 38.5 percent and 39.5 percent"

    Wall St analysts actually get paid for this ?
  • Reply 9 of 37

    Even Volkswagen is up more than Apple!

    When your stock is in the toilet, the only way to go is up.
  • Reply 10 of 37
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member

    I'm really fine with lowered "investor expectations". FAR better than that insane overoptimism Kuo spewed last summer which tanked a 37% YoY rise into "failure".

  • Reply 11 of 37
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    teejay2012 wrote: »
    The bar is set so low for Amazon that pennies of profit lead to 10% jump.
    Why are Munster and the others setting the bar so high for Apple this quarter you would wonder? All the negatives about China and the US dollar etc, should be pushing expectations down. Wall Street want AAPL to go down and so what better way than make up some targets that will be very hard to beat?

    Apple (AAPL) is being set up. Again.

    And that happened last quarter. Right before earnings everyone's iPhone sales estimates started creeping higher and higher, higher than any guidance Apple provided. Of course no one could explain where these "whisper" numbers came from. And instead of questioning how analysts could be so far off, Apple stock was punished for not meeting/beating unrealistic expectations (even though they beat the guidance they provided).
  • Reply 12 of 37
    rogifanrogifan Posts: 10,669member
    At the risk of repeating myself, I find it insane that GOOG, AMZN, FB and MSFT are all up about 10% today, post-earnings. Although AAPL is sluggishly getting a sector boost, I fully expect the stock to drop after they give their numbers. It's nutty.

    I agree with Neil Cybart. Wall Street has absolutely no clue how to value large cap tech. Right now Google's PE is 34 and Microsoft's is 36. Apple's is 14.
  • Reply 13 of 37
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SpamSandwich View Post



    At the risk of repeating myself, I find it insane that GOOG, AMZN, FB and MSFT are all up about 10% today, post-earnings. Although AAPL is sluggishly getting a sector boost, I fully expect the stock to drop after they give their numbers. It's nutty.

    A lot will depend on how China did for Apple last quarter. Cook already allayed fears a couple of months ago (when he communicated with Cramer). If Apple meets or beats the market's China expectations based on that comment, I am guessing the stock will be -- cheap prediction alert! -- back in the 120s. 

  • Reply 14 of 37
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,115member

    Wait, but not long ago all these fuckwad analysts were saying that Apple peaked with the 6 and there's no way the 6 could outsell it, and now they're "expecting" 10M+ more sales in a single quarter? Assholes. 

  • Reply 15 of 37
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 4,476member

    here we go again, wall street setting them up to drive the stock down so they can short it.

  • Reply 16 of 37
    What if a lot of AAPL investors banged on the door of the SEC to ask them about manipulation of this stock?

    If the PE goes down to some absurd number like 6, I would expect them to be asking questions.

    Of course, I think we have been in suspicious territory since August.

    It is truly bizarre that the regulators aren't asking questions.
  • Reply 17 of 37
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

     

    A lot will depend on how China did for Apple last quarter. Cook already allayed fears a couple of months ago (when he communicated with Cramer). If Apple meets or beats the market's China expectations based on that comment, I am guessing the stock will be -- cheap prediction alert! -- back in the 120s. 


     

    Yes.... Apple, gets less PE ratio than some multinational garbage hauler with fixed contracts and microscopic growth.

    When PE earning gets to 5 and they're making 100B in profits a year... Grocery chains with 2% margins will beat it. No Question.

  • Reply 18 of 37
    MSFT posts a decline in net income and revenue and the stock jumps 10% to a 15 year high. Will investors be rational on Tuesday night regarding AAPL, or will they look at seemingly impossible growth for a company of its size and say: Well they missed the iPhone number by 300,000 units, or the holiday quarter forecast is not as high as the highest Wall Street estimate? Over the long run, actual performance for a company matters. But the recent history of AAPL shows that in the short run primate emotions rule the market.
  • Reply 19 of 37
    boredumbboredumb Posts: 1,413member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Ruggedchess View Post



    MSFT posts a decline in net income and revenue and the stock jumps 10% to a 15 year high. Will investors be rational on Tuesday night regarding AAPL, or will they look at seemingly impossible growth for a company of its size and say: Well they missed the iPhone number by 300,000 units, or the holiday quarter forecast is not as high as the highest Wall Street estimate? 

    That's a rhetorical question, right?

  • Reply 20 of 37
    normmnormm Posts: 548member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by Rogifan View Post





    And that happened last quarter. Right before earnings everyone's iPhone sales estimates started creeping higher and higher, higher than any guidance Apple provided. Of course no one could explain where these "whisper" numbers came from. And instead of questioning how analysts could be so far off, Apple stock was punished for not meeting/beating unrealistic expectations (even though they beat the guidance they provided).



    Kind of crazy.  Pump up the numbers at the last minute, to the top end or above of guidance, and then when they're a bit too high say that Apple missed yet again!  Why do they get to change their numbers at the last minute?  And why do people consider this meaningful?

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