New guesstimate puts total Apple Watch shipments at almost 7 million

Posted:
in Apple Watch edited November 2015
According to a new estimate by research firm Canalys, Apple has sold nearly 7 million Apple Watch units since the product launched in late April, blowing past competing smartwatch products from the likes of Pebble, Samsung and Motorola.




That figure would be well ahead of the achievements of other smartwatch makers, the firm observed. The amount is in fact believed to be more than what all competing vendors shipped in the last five quarters combined.

Moreover, no Apple rival is thought to have topped more than 300,000 watches in a single quarter. Even the Pebble Time Steel, which works with both iOS and Android, only managed 200,000 units in its first quarter.

"After experiencing significant supply chain constraints early on, Apple managed to overcome its production struggles with the Apple Watch and is building momentum going into Q4," claimed analyst Daniel Matte.

A Canalys estimate published in July suggested that the company had sold 4.2 million units in the June quarter. Apple hasn't published any official data however, and other analysts have offered conflicting views.

Based on the company's 10-Q filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, revenue from the device so far is estimated to be at least $1.69 billion, meaning the actual sales figure could be higher.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 40
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    Based on the company's 10-Q filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, revenue from the device so far is estimated to be at least $1.69 billion, meaning the actual sales figure could be higher.

    I don't see how. $1.7B is only an $243 ARP. I'd say that $500 would be a more reasonable APR, but you'll have to get to at least $400 before I'm seeing at legit. So either that's no more than 4.25 million units, or the revenue estimate is wrong.
  • Reply 2 of 40
    maestro64maestro64 Posts: 5,043member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SolipsismY View Post





    I don't see how. $1.7B is only an $243 ARP. I'd say that $500 would be a more reasonable APR, but you'll have to get to at least $400 before I'm seeing at legit. So either that's no more than 4.25 million units, or the revenue estimate is wrong.

    I would agree, but the other category which include lots of things was declining before the watch, the question is how much did those other things fall off and the watch made up. Keep in mind apple dropped the price of ATV due this same period even if those sales were flat they would have brought in less $ for even ATV. There are too many variable and moving parts to peg the number down. So it all a guestmate for a while.

  • Reply 3 of 40
    schlackschlack Posts: 720member
    even 4M is a lot, considering that it's mostly experimental/beta at the moment.

    i like my watch; but I tell people it's mostly just a fun thing to have; when challenged on it's functionality
  • Reply 4 of 40
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    maestro64 wrote: »
    I would agree, but the other category which include lots of things was declining before the watch, the question is how much did those other things fall off and the watch made up. Keep in mind apple dropped the price of ATV due this same period even if those sales were flat they would have brought in less $ for even ATV. There are too many variable and moving parts to peg the number down. So it all a guestmate for a while.

    That would then argue my second point that the revenue listed is too low to be accurate.
  • Reply 5 of 40
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member

    I’m 65 years old and have worn a watch on my wrist my entire adult life. I wear my Apple Watch all day, every day. It has become second nature to me. I receive texts on it, I check the weather with it, I scan emails, and I have made and received phone calls on it. I respond to the health app urging me to stand up, walk, whatever. It has become almost my primary mobile device. Twice now I have had to unlock my iPhone using my passcode instead of TouchID because it had been more than 48 hours since the iPhone had been unlocked. Imagine that.

     

    Wearable tech is here, it’s staying, it’s going to grow and the Apple Watch is best of breed, period. The naysayers can go suck on a turd. They are wrong, they are ignorantly wrong. It is NOT some kind of experimental beta or “fun” thing to have. It works and it works well.

  • Reply 6 of 40
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,454member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by schlack View Post



    even 4M is a lot, considering that it's mostly experimental/beta at the moment.

    I agree 4 million is a lot of watches, and 7 million watches in essentially two quarters is fantastic for a brand new device in a category that wasn't doing very well to begin with. I'm certain Apple is hoping for better numbers, but projected out at the same rate 14 million watches in their first year is far from a failure.

     

    But these numbers are wonky.  If Apple has only sold 7 million watches, and they sold 4.2 million watches during the 1st quarter it was on sale, that means they only sold 2.8 million watches during the second quarter after production delays had been overcome and they were available in stores. And if that's accurate it means that watch sales are slowing down dramatically, despite Apple accounting for a similar 1% growth year over year as the 3rd quarter results by attributing 100% of that growth to the watch. Moreover, the numbers don't make sense for the overall revenue unless Beats has had a stellar year, along with the iPod and ?TV.

  • Reply 7 of 40
    I knew it... Apple is Doomed™
  • Reply 8 of 40
    slurpyslurpy Posts: 5,384member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by schlack View Post



    even 4M is a lot, considering that it's mostly experimental/beta at the moment.



    i like my watch; but I tell people it's mostly just a fun thing to have; when challenged on it's functionality

     

    Why would you be challenged on it's functionality? It has more functionality than pretty much any other watch/smartwatch out there, and pretty much the best overall package that exists today. 

  • Reply 9 of 40
    cm477cm477 Posts: 99member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

     

    I’m 65 years old and have worn a watch on my wrist my entire adult life. I wear my Apple Watch all day, every day. It has become second nature to me. I receive texts on it, I check the weather with it, I scan emails, and I have made and received phone calls on it. I respond to the health app urging me to stand up, walk, whatever. It has become almost my primary mobile device. Twice now I have had to unlock my iPhone using my passcode instead of TouchID because it had been more than 48 hours since the iPhone had been unlocked. Imagine that.

     

    Wearable tech is here, it’s staying, it’s going to grow and the Apple Watch is best of breed, period. The naysayers can go suck on a turd. They are wrong, they are ignorantly wrong. It is NOT some kind of experimental beta or “fun” thing to have. It works and it works well.




    I applaud your use of the Apple Watch. I like my Apple Watch also, but my arms are too short to read messages when I don't have my reading glasses on. Changing the font size helps, but I need just a bit more. Forget the Apple Car, I wish Apple would reinvent reading glasses for us with presbyopia!

  • Reply 10 of 40
    christophbchristophb Posts: 1,482member
    Rumor has it, IBM is supplying an Apple Watch to US employees who sign up for qualifying HSAs. Figure another 100K there for 1Q 2016?
  • Reply 11 of 40
    mcarlingmcarling Posts: 1,106member
    I think the more important questions are:
    1) how many will Apple sell this quarter, the holiday quarter in North America and Europe, and
    2) how many will Apple sell next quarter, the holiday quarter in China.

    Eventually, Apple will report watch revenues separately, rather than as part of "Other", but we'll probably have to wait until FY2016/17 for that.
  • Reply 12 of 40
    djsherlydjsherly Posts: 1,031member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by lkrupp View Post

     

    I’m 65 years old and have worn a watch on my wrist my entire adult life. I wear my Apple Watch all day, every day. It has become second nature to me. I receive texts on it, I check the weather with it, I scan emails, and I have made and received phone calls on it. I respond to the health app urging me to stand up, walk, whatever. It has become almost my primary mobile device. Twice now I have had to unlock my iPhone using my passcode instead of TouchID because it had been more than 48 hours since the iPhone had been unlocked. Imagine that.

     

    Wearable tech is here, it’s staying, it’s going to grow and the Apple Watch is best of breed, period. The naysayers can go suck on a turd. They are wrong, they are ignorantly wrong. It is NOT some kind of experimental beta or “fun” thing to have. It works and it works well.


    That's great but you address nothing in the article? I'm going to wait till next year. I got a taste of smart watch with the Garmin VivoActive and I do like it :)

  • Reply 13 of 40
    The latest batch of running watches released by Garmin includes one that checks everything on my list of wants/needs but also comes in at just $20 less than a 38mm Apple Watch Sport.

    At first I was excited about this watch before thinking that I could just get the Apple for a little bit more. Then when I sat down to look at the two feature by feature I saw that while I could put up with some of the pure running watch features that I'd lose by going with Apple the battery life just doesn't do it for me.

    Maybe the second gen will be the time for me to switch.
  • Reply 14 of 40
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,727member
    So ?Watch is just another typical multi billion dollar Apple hobby. Not a real business like Pebble. ;)
  • Reply 15 of 40
    MacProMacPro Posts: 19,727member
    christophb wrote: »
    Rumor has it, IBM is supplying an Apple Watch to US employees who sign up for qualifying HSAs. Figure another 100K there for 1Q 2016?

    Nice! Maybe a watch for Watson and Homes;)
  • Reply 16 of 40
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 10,557member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by djsherly View Post

     

    That's great but you address nothing in the article? I'm going to wait till next year. I got a taste of smart watch with the Garmin VivoActive and I do like it :)




    I was addressing where those estimated 7 million ?Watch sales came from. The watch was met with the usual naysaying, the Apple bashing, the ‘meh’ posts, etc. Those people tried their best to portray the watch as a failure, and expensive toy, an experiment. AI has lately been filling up with that ilk and I’m here to explain my own experience and why that failure meme is ignorant blather.

  • Reply 17 of 40
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    lkrupp wrote: »
    I’m 65 years old and have worn a watch on my wrist my entire adult life. I wear my Apple Watch all day, every day. It has become second nature to me. I receive texts on it, I check the weather with it, I scan emails, and I have made and received phone calls on it. I respond to the health app urging me to stand up, walk, whatever. It has become almost my primary mobile device. Twice now I have had to unlock my iPhone using my passcode instead of TouchID because it had been more than 48 hours since the iPhone had been unlocked. Imagine that.

    Wearable tech is here, it’s staying, it’s going to grow and the Apple Watch is best of breed, period. The naysayers can go suck on a turd. They are wrong, they are ignorantly wrong. It is NOT some kind of experimental beta or “fun” thing to have. It works and it works well.

    I stopped wearing a watch soon after I got my first cell phone because it was a redundant device, but I've worn my Apple Watch every day since I got it 5(?) months ago. It's the first thing I put on in the morning and the last thing I take off at night. It's unnecessary, yet indispensable.
  • Reply 18 of 40
    boredumbboredumb Posts: 1,418member

    The headline says "shipments at almost 7 million", the article says "sold nearly 7 million"... 

    Which is actually meant, then?

    Haven't we endlessly disparaged the Android world for touting one when they mean the other?

  • Reply 19 of 40
    solipsismysolipsismy Posts: 5,099member
    boredumb wrote: »
    The headline says "shipments at almost 7 million", the article says "sold nearly 7 million"... 
    Which is actually meant, then?
    Haven't we endlessly disparaged the Android world for touting one when they mean the other?

    All unit numbers from a company statement and with most analysts are shipped. I would doubt highly the original source was estimating sales, and not what they've measured and estimated through channels. The one caveat is that Apple has had a very long run of their shipped numbers being pretty much right on point with their sales numbers because of their demand.

    The Apple Watch may be different in that regard because of the extremely high price point which might mean a different sales setup. For example, if a luxury jewelry store chain orders thousands of the Apple Watch and Apple Watch Edition models they may have the option in their contract that any unsold items can be shipped back to Apple. I'm not saying that's the case, but I could see that happening with Watch for a variety of reasons that are unique to it and not other Apple products.
  • Reply 20 of 40

    I'm guessing there will be a 2nd wave of sales during Christmas as many of us 'early adopters' buy additional Apple Watches as gifts for family members.  I use mine heavily each day and am now getting one for my wife.

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