Total Apple Watch sales predicted to double this holiday, reaching 12M in 2015

Posted:
in AAPL Investors edited December 2015
Sales of the Apple Watch have continued to grow since its launch in April, and one analyst believes total sales of its wearable device could double this holiday alone, moving 6 million units in the lucrative three-month shopping period.




Based on checks with Apple retail stores last Friday, analyst Daniel Ives of FBR & Co. has predicted that Apple Watch sales could reach 6 million in the December quarter. If true, that would double his estimated total sales to date of 6 million.

Apple has not revealed specific sales figures for the Apple Watch, citing competitive reasons. But the company has revealed that sales have continued to grow since the product went on sale, while financial filings reveal total sales topped at least $1.7 billion in the first five months.

Apple also revealed in July that the Apple Watch had outsold the first-generation iPad through its first nine weeks. For perspective, Apple sold 3 million iPads in the touchscreen tablet's first 80 days.

Ives noted that Apple's total financial picture continues to be dominated by the iPhone. But he sees the Apple Watch as an important investment for the company going forward, establishing Apple has a dominant player in the growing wearables space.

In his note to investors, Ives estimated that the wearable devices market will be a $20-billion-plus market opportunity for Apple over the next three years. To him, the Apple Watch launch signified the start of a "massive land grab opportunity," which will ultimate create an entirely new ecosystem.

"We continue to view the Apple Watch as a potential door opener for wearable technology across the board, as this next paradigm shift is likely set to take place across the consumer/enterprise landscape," Ives wrote.

FBR has maintained its "outperform" rating on shares of AAPL with a price target of $175.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 32
    sdw2001sdw2001 Posts: 16,931member

    Cue "Apple is DOOOOMED" article from blowhard analyst.....

  • Reply 2 of 32
    pmzpmz Posts: 3,433member

    Pretty impressive.

    I wear mine everyday and can't imagine being without it.

    I just wish it wasn't so damn slow.

  • Reply 3 of 32
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by pmz View Post

     

    Pretty impressive.

    I wear mine everyday and can't imagine being without it.

    I just wish it wasn't so damn slow.




    I don't think its that bad with speed, although of course any tech device can get better. But I also wear mine every day, and before I leave the house now I do a 'wallet, keys, phone, watch' check.

  • Reply 4 of 32
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by SDW2001 View Post

     

    Cue "Apple is DOOOOMED" article from blowhard analyst.....


    Didn't take long: morons.... http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/11/25/10-tech-turkeys-year/76315012/

    icoco3
  • Reply 5 of 32
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 2,973moderator
    I love the fitness tracking, data aggregation, and incentives I get from wearing the Watch constantly. Plus being able to reject phone calls from my 80-year old neighbor on days when AAPL is down (she bought shares three years ago on my advice).

    [IMG ALT=""]http://forums.appleinsider.com/content/type/61/id/65670/width/350/height/700[/IMG]
  • Reply 6 of 32

    from the USA Today article:
    Perhaps one day, Apple will come up with a watch that’s light, can get through the day without a charge, has useful apps that can be easily accessed on the phone and is more than just an iPhone extension. This work-in-progress watch has a lot of improvement it needs to do for Watch 2.0

    ...what a moron. it is light. it does get thru the day without a charge. it does have useful apps. and it is SUPPOSED to be an iphone accessory.

    what total imbeciles over there.
  • Reply 7 of 32
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,512member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by anantksundaram View Post

    Didn't take long: morons.... http://www.usatoday.com/story/tech/2015/11/25/10-tech-turkeys-year/76315012/

    That entire list is pretty much garbage.  The only "turkey" is the author.

     

    For all of those in the media that have already concluded the Apple Watch is a tech flop, I wonder what is the issue:

    - Attention span of a nat? [Product not selling 10s of millions in weeks - fail - now on to 8K TV]

    - Low intelligence? [Apple watch has failed to eclipse the iPhone after 3 months - Apple still reliant on iPhone - fail]

    - Click-bait? [Anything anti-Apple produces the most hits, so keep the quality journalism coming]

     

    Personally, I find the AW an excellent "watch that does much more" and think it will be a very solid category in 3 years with both hardware, software and application innovation.  Apple will own the higher end of this category as they do today in smart phones with iPhone.  I don't see it getting up with iPhone in revenue as upgrades will likely be more "iPad-like", and fashion is always a challenge for any company to stay relevant - but the margins should be top notch.

  • Reply 8 of 32
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 1,997member

    I just got my Apple Watch a couple days ago.   I didn't go new, I went USED.  It was hardly used, Looks brand new.  Paid $300 for the 42mm Space Grey version and it included 3 extra watch bands, the Red, Blue and White straps and a second charger.  Now I'll have a charger for use in a watch stand and another I can simply take with me.   If I didn't buy used, I would have waited until at least a second generation version.

     

    The screen looks amazing.  I think it runs pretty nice.  The only time that it's slow to me is loading up 3rd party Apps/data from the iphone.  I wish I could wear it every day, but I can't wear it at work.  I think it would get damaged/scratched with what I do.  Maybe if I put some type of case on it, but I don't want the case on it all the time, only when at work.  I do really like it.  I don't normally wear a watch, but the Apple watch I can't even really feel it.  It feels nice and doesn't weigh much.  The text messages and whatnot, getting on the watch, not having to pull out my phone and see what it says is really nice.  

  • Reply 9 of 32
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by JBDragon View Post

     

    I just got my Apple Watch a couple days ago.   I didn't go new, I went USED.  It was hardly used, Looks brand new.  Paid $300 for the 42mm Space Grey version and it included 3 extra watch bands, the Red, Blue and White straps and a second charger.  Now I'll have a charger for use in a watch stand and another I can simply take with me.   If I didn't buy used, I would have waited until at least a second generation version.

     

    The screen looks amazing.  I think it runs pretty nice.  The only time that it's slow to me is loading up 3rd party Apps/data from the iphone.  I wish I could wear it every day, but I can't wear it at work.  I think it would get damaged/scratched with what I do.  Maybe if I put some type of case on it, but I don't want the case on it all the time, only when at work.  I do really like it.  I don't normally wear a watch, but the Apple watch I can't even really feel it.  It feels nice and doesn't weigh much.  The text messages and whatnot, getting on the watch, not having to pull out my phone and see what it says is really nice.  


    FWIW, I think you got a good deal. But it is worth thinking about the utility you are passing up by not using at your work. Unless it is actually dangerous (eg you work around machinery) I think of tech as a consumable. Sure, it may get scratched or damaged, but a version 2 may be out soon, and you know you'll want one. Not saying to abuse stuff, but I've got lots of really great looking apple products in the drawer that were simply superseded. 

  • Reply 10 of 32
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,378member
    Ives noted that Apple's total financial picture continues to be dominated by the iPhone. But he sees the Apple Watch as an important investment for the company going forward, establishing Apple has a dominant player in the growing wearables space.

    In his note to investors, Ives estimated that the wearable devices market will be a $20-billion-plus market opportunity for Apple over the next three years. To him, the Apple Watch launch signified the start of a "massive land grab opportunity," which will ultimate create an entirely new ecosystem.

    "We continue to view the Apple Watch as a potential door opener for wearable technology across the board, as this next paradigm shift is likely set to take place across the consumer/enterprise landscape," Ives wrote.

    FBR has maintained its "outperform" rating on shares of AAPL with a price target of $175.

    And this is all that needs to be said about the watch.

    If Apple outperforms on its stock rating it won't be because of the ?Watch, at least not this year.

    If the ?Watch doubles its sales during the holiday, based on the current sale prices, the margins will obviously be lower. So more units sold, less profit earned. Regardless, that doesn't seem to be the motivation for Ive.

    Some people defend the watch sales to the teeth, as if Apple's financial health depends on it -- it doesn't. And Ive has just made perfectly clear how he sees the watch in Apple's ecosystem.
  • Reply 11 of 32
    I love the fitness tracking, data aggregation, and incentives I get from wearing the Watch constantly. Plus being able to reject phone calls from my 80-year old neighbor on days when AAPL is down (she bought shares three years ago on my advice).

    700

    You should know better than to give out stock advice. ????
  • Reply 12 of 32
    eriamjheriamjh Posts: 1,108member
    Love my AW. Don't use any 3rd party SW. The fitness tracking, calendar, reminder, and message integration is my mane use. Even If gen2 is better, I'll probably not upgrade for a long time as long as it still does what it does.

    12M AWs sounds like a lot to me. That's $4.8 billion in revenue created. I doubt any other watch provider will touch it.
  • Reply 13 of 32
    jakebjakeb Posts: 557member
    Quote:
    Originally Posted by NolaMacGuy View Post





    from the USA Today article:

    ...what a moron. it is light. it does get thru the day without a charge. it does have useful apps. and it is SUPPOSED to be an iphone accessory.



    what total imbeciles over there.



    I was about to say, the thing about the battery is just factually untrue. Every day my watch has 40% battery left at night when I go to sleep. Even on days when I go running and use the continuous heart rate monitoring. I've never had the battery run out in one day. I've even pushed it to 2 days a few times when I didn't have a charger with me. 

     

    Also the sport model is ridiculously light. The stainless steel model purposely adds a bit of heft to make it feel slightly more substantial, more like a traditional watch. 

     

    Has this guy ever used an Apple Watch before writing this article?

  • Reply 14 of 32
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 3,974member
    Another 3M to go by April. Sog35 will probably make his numer. Congrats!
  • Reply 15 of 32
    jakeb wrote: »

    I was about to say, the thing about the battery is just factually untrue. Every day my watch has 40% battery left at night when I go to sleep. Even on days when I go running and use the continuous heart rate monitoring. I've never had the battery run out in one day. I've even pushed it to 2 days a few times when I didn't have a charger with me. 

    Also the sport model is ridiculously light. The stainless steel model purposely adds a bit of heft to make it feel slightly more substantial, more like a traditional watch. 

    Has this guy ever used an Apple Watch before writing this article?

    im thinking no -- citing the battery to me says hes never used it. on days with 2+ hours of workouts i still dont have trouble.
  • Reply 16 of 32
    jbdragonjbdragon Posts: 1,997member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by eightzero View Post

     

    FWIW, I think you got a good deal. But it is worth thinking about the utility you are passing up by not using at your work. Unless it is actually dangerous (eg you work around machinery) I think of tech as a consumable. Sure, it may get scratched or damaged, but a version 2 may be out soon, and you know you'll want one. Not saying to abuse stuff, but I've got lots of really great looking apple products in the drawer that were simply superseded. 


     

    Yes, I work around Industrial Machinery!!  I'm the maintenance supervisor at a food factory, I'm dealing with all kinds of things.  Right now I'm working on installing a new Packaging Line, while doing that, still having to take care of everything else like fixing a forklift this morning.  I rest when I'm tracking down parts and ordering parts.  

     

    I was going to wait on buying the first Apple Watch. I didn't want to pay full price on a first generation device.  The watch is great.   What Apple will do on the second generation one?  I don't myself buying it any time soon unless it's HUGE.  Maybe the 3rd generation.  Will Apple even update every year?  Maybe it'll be every other year.  How much can Apple really chance in a small watch to make it worth a update every year?

  • Reply 17 of 32
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,512member
    Quote:

    Originally Posted by NolaMacGuy View Post

    im thinking no -- citing the battery to me says hes never used it. on days with 2+ hours of workouts i still dont have trouble.

    Indeed.  I haven't made any "energy saving" configurations - stock only - and with a workout and frequent use throughout the day, I still have 40% or better at 11PM each night.

     

    Going to try sleep monitoring with the "Sleep++" app, which will mean giving it a charge before bed, and then again after getting up.  Will see how that goes.

  • Reply 18 of 32
    jakeb wrote: »
    Has this guy ever used an Apple Watch before writing this article?

    And risk cognitive dissonance?
  • Reply 19 of 32
    fallenjt wrote: »
    Another 3M to go by April. Sog35 will probably make his numer. Congrats!

    And if he doesn't, he'll ban himself starting in the year 2073.
    jackansi
  • Reply 20 of 32

    It seems that Appleinsider missed an opportunity to report the half price cut of Apple Watch in a French boutique retailer Colette, which is reported by MacRumors (http://www.macrumors.com/2015/11/26/colette-apple-watch-edition-50-percent-off/).

     

    This cut included most of all versions, even the Apple Watch Edition (50%). Also, you see the US retailers, such as Bestbuy and Target, sell Apple Watch with discounts (in different ways).

     

    So I wonder how much does Apple Inc sell those watch products to the retailer in a grand scale? This will lead to another question, what is the really revenue of Apple Inc for selling those watches?

     

    Just estimation the number of sales cannot reflect the true revenue. Hopefully Apple will report its sale. Otherwise, it would be another hobby product.

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