Channel-check analysts warning of Peak iPhone are priming Apple shares for monster buybacks

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Comments

  • Reply 61 of 81
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,399member
    Guys, and gals; please edits your posts. Nobody wants to spend 10 minutes scrolling down to see a comment. 


    No kidding ... This is getting ridiculous -- an actual screenshot of a very small part of this discussion from my iPhone.

    And there's no blocking anymore right? That would solve some of this anyway ...
  • Reply 62 of 81
    crowleycrowley Posts: 5,772member
    sog35 said:

    You have ZERO proof that Apple has not returned some cash into the USA.  ZERO.
    Do you have any proof that they have, other than your usual guesstimates?
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 63 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:

    Again it hasn't happened in 50 years, so no need to assume it will happen without any tax holiday.
    Lets talk again when it actually happens somewhere in next 50 years.

    Also as of latest results, APPL have $19B domestic Cash and $187B foreign debt and $64B debt, So no matter how you would cut the crap, it still have $187B debt parked outside US.

    You have ZERO proof that Apple has not returned some cash into the USA.  ZERO.
    And Apple has only been in business for 39 years, not 50 years.
    I have 100% proof that only cash AAPL have domestic is $19B, and all of remaining $187B is held up outside.
    You can make of it whatever you want.
  • Reply 63 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:

    Again it hasn't happened in 50 years, so no need to assume it will happen without any tax holiday.
    Lets talk again when it actually happens somewhere in next 50 years.

    Also as of latest results, APPL have $19B domestic Cash and $187B foreign debt and $64B debt, So no matter how you would cut the crap, it still have $187B debt parked outside US.

    WTF are you talking about!

    Apple has no where close to $187 billion in debt
    You know it was typo. $19B domestic cash, $187 foreign cash, $64B long term debt
  • Reply 63 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:

    Again it hasn't happened in 50 years, so no need to assume it will happen without any tax holiday.
    Lets talk again when it actually happens somewhere in next 50 years.

    Also as of latest results, APPL have $19B domestic Cash and $187B foreign debt and $64B debt, So no matter how you would cut the crap, it still have $187B debt parked outside US.

    WTF are you talking about!

    Apple has no where close to $187 billion in debt
    You know it was typo. $19B domestic cash, $187 foreign cash, $64B long term debt
  • Reply 66 of 81
    insider7 said:
    The author of this article said, "Who's winning the most from Apple's irrationally low stock price? Ironically, it's Apple and its shareholders. That's because Apple has been burning through its capital return program, buying back billions worth of shares at prices that are stupidly low."

    For all practical purposes, I don't see how Apple's share buyback program is helping me at all.  When you have 5.5B shares on the market, retiring 700 million shares will increase the EPS and lower the PE; but so what?  The stock price won't necessarily go up, as we have seen.  In contrast, if that money were paid out to shareholders, I would get a clear benefit.  

    Apple used $80B to buy back its stock between August 2012 and March 2015;  over the same period, they paid out about $32B in dividends (an annual rate of roughly 2% of the stock price). If they had used that $80B to increase dividends, the rate would be so high (~5-6.0%) that AAPL would be an extremely attractive stock.  I believe it's per share value would be much higher under that scenario.  
    Buying back is only good for investors if the stock value increases....
    Otherwise, it's only good for Apple since like you said, that reduces the current value of future dividend cash flow.
    Reducing the number of shares though tends to eventually have an effect, though because of Wall Streets idiocy regarding Apple,
    the effect seems immensely delayed.
    Dan Andersen
  • Reply 67 of 81
    crowleycrowley Posts: 5,772member
    foggyhill said:

    Buying back is only good for investors if the stock value increases....
    Or the dividend, which is a possibility given that there are fewer outstanding shares to pay out to.
  • Reply 68 of 81
    On Monday, Katy Huberty of Morgan Stanley cited channel checks and a customer intent survey as the basis for predicting the potential for iPhone sales to fall by as much as 2.9 percent over the next year, reaching a total for 2016 as low as 224 million in a "worst case scenario." The idea of "Peak iPhone" generated clickbait headlines, but the real story is that channel checks have historically been extremely worthless at predicting Apple's actual performance.
    We see this B.S. every year. Why don't these anal-ists have a fricking clue that you can't tell how sales are doing by what Apple uses for there suppliers because they change them all of the time. Tim Cook told them that I believe at one of the end of quarter meetings. Those numbers do not reflect actual sales or supplies period.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 69 of 81
    crowleycrowley Posts: 5,772member
    Can we have some kind of quote limiter or truncation, the above OP quoting is proper ridic, and the infinite pyramid of nested quotes moreso. Meanwhile, people get antsy at me for using ^
  • Reply 70 of 81
    crowleycrowley Posts: 5,772member
    mac_128 said:
    Guys, and gals; please edits your posts. Nobody wants to spend 10 minutes scrolling down to see a comment. 


    No kidding ... This is getting ridiculous -- an actual screenshot of a very small part of this discussion from my iPhone.

    And there's no blocking anymore right? That would solve some of this anyway ...
    Lol, didn't even see this before I posted.
  • Reply 71 of 81
    sog35 said:

    And the hits keep coming...

    Dialog Semiconductor, whose biggest client is reportedly Apple, cut their revenue forecast for the quarter due to weak mobile sales. Apple is down 1.5% pre-market even though the DOW and Nasdaq futures are up almost 1%.
    And it will continue as long as Apple trades in the public market.

    Apple needs to take its stock out of the public market. How?

    1. BOD approval and shareholder approval to take the stock off of the public market
    2. Establish a private market place to buy/sell shares. 
    3. Institute rules that limit manipulation. Such as stock must be held for at least 90 days. These type of limitations are common place with Mutual funds.
    4. Continue to act as a Quasi-public company by reporting quarterly financials to the SEC

    Notice that there is no mention of a buyout of the shareholders. The reason is there is no buyout. Shareholders are simply agreeing to take the shares off of the public market.  

    What are the benefits of taking the shares out of the public market?

    1. No more manipulation by algo computers that buy/sell MILLIONS of Apple shares a day to control price.
    2. No more manipulation by option market to control price to collect premiums.
    3. No more day traders and swing traders who pollute the stock right now.
    4. The media will have very little reason to write sensational FUD. Reason is the hedge funds won't be paying them under the table (no stock to manipulate) and traders won't click on the articles.
    5. No more analysist covering Apple. Since they are not on the public exchanges the Analyist won't get paid for covering Apple.
    6. Apple can focus on LONG TERM goals instead of beating random numbers by Wall Street
    7. Apple will become a pure INVESTMENT stock (no trader is going to buy a stock that you must hold for 90 days) rather than a TRADING stock.
    8. Apple can immediately stop the buyback since the shares will reach fair value in a market that is not manipulated.
    9. Apple can increase the dividend and acquisitions since no buyback is needed.

    What are some negatives of taking the shares off of the public exchanges?

    1. Less liquidity. But with over a SIX billion shares outstanding I don't think this will be much of a problem. 
    2. No more leverage buying. No more buying Apple on margin or options. 
    3. Less coverage by analysist (not bad in IMO, but some people rely on anaylsist)
    4. Extra costs to run the private exchange where the stock is sold. But this will be offset by not having to pay listing fees to the NASDAQ/DOW/NYSE

    IMO, the positives FAR OUTWEIGHT the negatives.  In a couple months a bunch of my investor friends will start a campaign to ask Apple to take the shares off of the public exchanges. We are going to need massive traction to get the ball moving. But if we get enough shareholder support we take it to a vote.

    Apple has grown profits 35% the past year.
    Yet the stock has not gone up 1 cent this year.
    Imagine where the stock would be now if they grew profits "only" 20%
    Apple has spent over $100 billion in buybacks and even that has not supported the stock price.

    Its time for stockholders to take control of the stock out of Wall Streets hands.



  • Reply 72 of 81
    sog35 said:

    And the hits keep coming...

    Dialog Semiconductor, whose biggest client is reportedly Apple, cut their revenue forecast for the quarter due to weak mobile sales. Apple is down 1.5% pre-market even though the DOW and Nasdaq futures are up almost 1%.
    And it will continue as long as Apple trades in the public market.

    Apple needs to take its stock out of the public market. How?

    1. BOD approval and shareholder approval to take the stock off of the public market
    2. Establish a private market place to buy/sell shares. 
    3. Institute rules that limit manipulation. Such as stock must be held for at least 90 days. These type of limitations are common place with Mutual funds.
    4. Continue to act as a Quasi-public company by reporting quarterly financials to the SEC

    Notice that there is no mention of a buyout of the shareholders. The reason is there is no buyout. Shareholders are simply agreeing to take the shares off of the public market.  

    What are the benefits of taking the shares out of the public market?

    1. No more manipulation by algo computers that buy/sell MILLIONS of Apple shares a day to control price.
    2. No more manipulation by option market to control price to collect premiums.
    3. No more day traders and swing traders who pollute the stock right now.
    4. The media will have very little reason to write sensational FUD. Reason is the hedge funds won't be paying them under the table (no stock to manipulate) and traders won't click on the articles.
    5. No more analysist covering Apple. Since they are not on the public exchanges the Analyist won't get paid for covering Apple.
    6. Apple can focus on LONG TERM goals instead of beating random numbers by Wall Street
    7. Apple will become a pure INVESTMENT stock (no trader is going to buy a stock that you must hold for 90 days) rather than a TRADING stock.
    8. Apple can immediately stop the buyback since the shares will reach fair value in a market that is not manipulated.
    9. Apple can increase the dividend and acquisitions since no buyback is needed.

    What are some negatives of taking the shares off of the public exchanges?

    1. Less liquidity. But with over a SIX billion shares outstanding I don't think this will be much of a problem. 
    2. No more leverage buying. No more buying Apple on margin or options. 
    3. Less coverage by analysist (not bad in IMO, but some people rely on anaylsist)
    4. Extra costs to run the private exchange where the stock is sold. But this will be offset by not having to pay listing fees to the NASDAQ/DOW/NYSE

    IMO, the positives FAR OUTWEIGHT the negatives.  In a couple months a bunch of my investor friends will start a campaign to ask Apple to take the shares off of the public exchanges. We are going to need massive traction to get the ball moving. But if we get enough shareholder support we take it to a vote.

    Apple has grown profits 35% the past year.
    Yet the stock has not gone up 1 cent this year.
    Imagine where the stock would be now if they grew profits "only" 20%
    Apple has spent over $100 billion in buybacks and even that has not supported the stock price.

    Its time for stockholders to take control of the stock out of Wall Streets hands.


    Yes!  We're in ... please continue with this.
  • Reply 73 of 81
    sog35 said:

    Guys, and gals; please edits your posts. Nobody wants to spend 10 minutes scrolling down to see a comment. 
    Its not that easy.  I try to delete previous comments (besides the one I'm referencing) and I'm unable to type below the quote.
    I thought I was the only one having that problem. 
  • Reply 74 of 81
    Apple typically make a run up before earnings, as well as the overall market into winter earnings. Apple can't crack that 120 level, so they need to beat it down so they can run it up again, it's the only way to make money off Apple these days. Put out a few stories like this to bring the stock down to levels where there is strong support from investors that aren't going anywhere, ~107-110. Then run the stock into earnings and get retail investors chasing it. Then they'll put out stories when it hits the 119-122 levels that Apple is going to all time highs, only to sell it off again right before or after earnings, depending where the price lands that week. Then rinse and repeat. I've been long in Apple since the 90's, but this stock has become a joke these days.

    What I think will break this channel is their new upgrade program, which will turn the iPhone into a subscription model, and make the barrier to entry even lower. It will take some time, but this should prove to be a huge money maker for Apple, even if their customer base stays flat. Apple Pay also should not be ignored, as it is essentially free money to Apple once it really kicks in. The thing that is going to finally make Apple Pay flourish is the new EMV requirements. If you've paid with a chip reader lately, you've seen what a nightmare these are, and pretty soon they are going to be literally everywhere. Merchants are going to be running to Apple Pay in hordes, and consumers will no doubt start using it once it's widely accepted.

  • Reply 75 of 81
    sog35 said:

    Guys, and gals; please edits your posts. Nobody wants to spend 10 minutes scrolling down to see a comment. 
    Its not that easy.  I try to delete previous comments (besides the one I'm referencing) and I'm unable to type below the quote.
    I thought I was the only one having that problem. 
    Yes! The format for quoting stinks and trying to edit a typo or delete anything is very frustrating.
    Mobile-only user BTW.
  • Reply 76 of 81
    sog35 said:

    cnocbui said:
    What do people in the US have against dividends?  Why are they seemingly not in favour while buybacks are?

    Buybacks don't seem to have had the intended effect.  I think significantly increased dividends would, even if that means repatriating overseas earned cash and paying the tax differential owing on it.
    I think its because investors need to pay taxes on dividends.
    Plus companies that pay high dividends are look upon as low growth companies.
    "Companies that pay high dividends are looked upon as low growth companies."  That's exactly the way Apple is being treated by the market.  So why not go ahead and act like it by paying a big dividend?  As far as taxes go, I'd love to pay 15% on a big dividend.
      
  • Reply 77 of 81
    coolerkid said:
    Apple typically make a run up before earnings, as well as the overall market into winter earnings. Apple can't crack that 120 level, so they need to beat it down so they can run it up again, it's the only way to make money off Apple these days. Put out a few stories like this to bring the stock down to levels where there is strong support from investors that aren't going anywhere, ~107-110. Then run the stock into earnings and get retail investors chasing it. Then they'll put out stories when it hits the 119-122 levels that Apple is going to all time highs, only to sell it off again right before or after earnings, depending where the price lands that week. Then rinse and repeat. I've been long in Apple since the 90's, but this stock has become a joke these days.

    What I think will break this channel is their new upgrade program, which will turn the iPhone into a subscription model, and make the barrier to entry even lower. It will take some time, but this should prove to be a huge money maker for Apple, even if their customer base stays flat. Apple Pay also should not be ignored, as it is essentially free money to Apple once it really kicks in. The thing that is going to finally make Apple Pay flourish is the new EMV requirements. If you've paid with a chip reader lately, you've seen what a nightmare these are, and pretty soon they are going to be literally everywhere. Merchants are going to be running to Apple Pay in hordes, and consumers will no doubt start using it once it's widely accepted.

    This seems plausible to me.  The only question is, who are "they"?  I assume you're talking about the people who are the subject of this main article.
  • Reply 78 of 81
    Dream on guys, dream on. Timmy is Wall Street's boy, dancing to their tune and playing to their crowd. Apple is a well-oiled money machine now (that's what happens when you have a supply chain guy running it), and being listed on a public exchange matters. You won't see anything changing while he's at the helm. Also - one point you guys didn't cover: all the lawsuits that Apple will have to fend if taken off public exchanges. It might have loads of cash, but nothing will cover how much these lawsuits will cost them - negative publicity with all negative headlines, many companies angry and dumping Apple hardware in spite (see IBM), etc. etc. If you are so upset with the way AAPL stock is trading, then dump it and buy something else.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 79 of 81
    Could it be that the reason Apple makes no effort to refute the negative reports coming out almost daily is because of their buyback program.  The lower the price, the more shares "retired."  And that raises the question of what, exactly, Apple has said they will do with the shares they buy back.  Do they become treasury shares; are they permanently retired; or what?  And if Apple is authorized to issue 12.6B shares, how much good does it do to retire, say, 1B?  In other words, what assurances do we have that Apple will not issue more shares after having bought back 1B?  It would seem to me that a buyback program makes sense for investors only if there is a pledge not to issue more shares and to take those bought back permanently out of circulation.
  • Reply 80 of 81
    coolerkid said:
    Apple typically make a run up before earnings, as well as the overall market into winter earnings. Apple can't crack that 120 level, so they need to beat it down so they can run it up again, it's the only way to make money off Apple these days. Put out a few stories like this to bring the stock down to levels where there is strong support from investors that aren't going anywhere, ~107-110. Then run the stock into earnings and get retail investors chasing it. Then they'll put out stories when it hits the 119-122 levels that Apple is going to all time highs, only to sell it off again right before or after earnings, depending where the price lands that week. Then rinse and repeat. I've been long in Apple since the 90's, but this stock has become a joke these days.

    What I think will break this channel is their new upgrade program, which will turn the iPhone into a subscription model, and make the barrier to entry even lower. It will take some time, but this should prove to be a huge money maker for Apple, even if their customer base stays flat. Apple Pay also should not be ignored, as it is essentially free money to Apple once it really kicks in. The thing that is going to finally make Apple Pay flourish is the new EMV requirements. If you've paid with a chip reader lately, you've seen what a nightmare these are, and pretty soon they are going to be literally everywhere. Merchants are going to be running to Apple Pay in hordes, and consumers will no doubt start using it once it's widely accepted.

    AAPL will finish this year around $100-105 (remember, today the Fed will announce they are raising interest rates, which should kill the markets) and Sog will finally be gone for a year. This year cannot end soon enough. (One positive: Star Wars!)

    Addendum:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/bernanke-says-fed-likely-to-add-negative-rates-to-recession-fighting-toolkit-2015-12-15
    edited December 2015
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