Channel-check analysts warning of Peak iPhone are priming Apple shares for monster buybacks

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Comments

  • Reply 41 of 81
    sog35 said:

    shahhet2 said:
    proapple said:
    sog35 said:
    Apple needs to take its stock out of the public market. How?
    1. BOD approval and shareholder approval to take the stock off of the public market
    2. Establish a private market place to buy/sell shares. 
    3. Institute rules that limit manipulation. Such as stock must be held for at least 90 days. These type of limitations are common place with Mutual funds.
    4. Continue to act as a Quasi-public company by reporting quarterly financials to the SEC
    Notice that there is no mention of a buyout of the shareholders. The reason is there is no buyout. Shareholders are simply agreeing to take the shares off of the public market.

    If you take the stock out of the market, most of the mutual funds and institutional holders will need to liquidate.  They will be asking for a premium to buy them out.  By their own by-laws, they are not allow to invest in these non public companies.

    Cannot establish a private market place.  Other security companies can establish private markets to exchange, but what will happen is it gets listed on pink sheet.  Apple cannot interact with small investors.  Only accredited investors are allowed, so this means that people have to have over 500k investable income to qualify or what the law deems as accredited investors.

    They cannot institute rules that limit manipulation, but probably can do other things that may result in similar behavior changes.  

    Majority of shareholders of apple are held by institutions who cannot hold a non public company in their funds.  So a buyout is necessary.

    If you take a stock private, most of the folks here will not be able to partake in the company's good times.
    Your retirement account will not be able to participate.  Unless you are trading pink sheet, you will not be able to buy/sell.  
    Anytime there is liquidity in this stock, then there will be market makers and it will be categorized as public traded and all the so call "bad actors" will be back in business.  

    There is no solution for Apple.  Only Congress can solve this problem.

    It's not going to get him.
    On top of that, APPL has domestic cash of only $19B vs domestic Debt of $67B dollars.
    All other cash that APPL have  ($187B out of $206B) is stored outside US and can't be brought back without hefty penalty.
    So, no APPL doesn't have cash to buy back their own stock at 50-100% premium to convince MFs to sell their holding.

    Top it with 60% Institutional ownership, which means 60% of 630B$ = ~$380B is owned by institutional investors.

    I don't know why even I wasted time to reply but couldn't resist how dumb a person could be.


    How do you know if the penalty would be hefty?

    If Apple already paid 25% tax on those foreign earnings they would only need to pay 10% to the USA if they brought the cash back.

    Apple's company wide tax rate was 25% the last few years.  So it is a given that a big chunk of that $200 billion in foreign cash has already been taxed in foreign countries.  Meaning if they brought the cash back they won't be paying now where close to 35% incremental tax.
    Again same rant.
    Why don't you look it yourself and do some math calculations yourself if smart enough?
    Here are few clues:
    From bloomberg "As a result, more than $2 trillion is being stockpiled overseas by U.S. companies."
    Every major corporate company (Including Goog/Amzn) keeps their money at places where they pay 0-10% tax rate. I don't have to give you further clue where in Europe they keep it dodge tax correct?

    Explain me, Why Yahoo decided to not brig $33 Cash with paying penalty to US Gov and you will find your answers.

    Again, You don't have to go into another swirl loop of How AAPL is bringing it's cash to prove another point of going private.
    It didn't happened for reason. 

    Second clue,
    Read this article how AAPL shows it's 25% tax paid vs how reality shows.(13.8%)
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/11/01/so-how-much-tax-did-apple-pay/

    Here is text from there and you can check yourself for latest quarter/year.
    "Apple’s own claim is as follows:

    The Company’s effective tax rates were approximately 25.2%, 24.2%, and 24.4% for 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. The Company’s effective rates for these periods differ from the statutory federal income tax rate of 35% due primarily to certain undistributed foreign earnings for which no U.S. taxes are provided because such earnings are intended to be indefinitely reinvested outside the U.S.

    This is the well known dodge: if you don’t bring foreign profits back to the US then you don’t have to pay US taxes on them. An entirely legal dodge it should be pointed out.

    However, that’s not what they actually paid out in this financial year.

    Income before provision for income taxes 55,763

    Cash paid for income taxes, net 7,682

    Divide one by the other and we get a tax rate of 13.8%. Which is certainly different from the 25.2% they claim. And no, this difference is not because of the offshore profits thing. That’s already been accounted for in the 25.2%."

    edited December 2015
  • Reply 42 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:
    mvigod said:
    I think the best course is to simply sell the stock and buy something else that isn't a broken or hated ticker like Apple.  No matter what apple does their stock isn't going to get the respect shareholders want it too.  Just look at the returns the last couple years to see that.  So you can stick with Apple and 'hope" that the market all of a sudden thinks it is worth much more or simply reinvest the proceeds into other more "loved" stocks and stories with more upside.  Plenty of choices there.  

    I sold all my Apple stock some time ago and redeployed into Google, S&P 500 index and some biotechs which have all done well.  Had I stuck with apple I would be a very frustrated shareholder.  I just knew from how the street and media treated the stock constantly it wasn't going to ever escape this sentiment.  So apple will continue to trade at very low "cheap" multiples.  At such time when iphone YOY sales drop or margins fall (or both) the stock will have a big leg down as investors think the story is over in terms of apple's profit growth.  So goes iphone so goes apple is the mantra.

    Remember, Apple has to sell an unprecedented number of phones at least for the next 5 to 7 years to justify today's 7B market cap.  That is no easy hurdle.  If you think somewhere on that timeline there is a risk that maybe, just maybe, the unit sales or margins fall then there is going to be more pain and stagnation in the Apple ticker.

    Hoping that Apple stock will be loved by Wall Street and not be manipulated is just not a realistic investment strategy anymore.  I watched it for too long and got out because I knew things were going to flatline, underperform and eventually underperform even the index.  In the end the index is your bogey.  If your stock can't outperform that then there is no reason to own it.

    You sound like a Wall Street lackey.

    So you say Apple needs to keep revenue flat for the next 7 years just to justify today's $600 billion market cap (you said $7 billion which is wrong)?

    Apple has $250 billion in cash right now.
    They make $60 billion in free cash flows each year.
    So in 7 years with FLAT GROWTH they will have $670 billion in cash.

    So you are saying Apple needs to have $670 billion in CASH to justify their $600 billion market cap?
    Do you even hear what you are saying?

    On the other hand Google has a PE of 33.  To justify their PE they need to GROW revenue 20% for the next 7 years.  Really?  They already own 85% of the internet ad dollars and you want then to grown revenue 20% each year and 250% compounded the next 7 years?  Give a break.  You are a trader and not an investor.  
    Wrong on all counts as far as your AAPL numbers go.

    AAPL has only $19 usable domestic Cash out of total cash of $206B and not $250B
    On top of that AAPL has domestic debt of $64B, so Actual local Cash that AAPL has is 206-64= $142B and as said $187B is locked outside US and can't be brought back
    Check yourself: http://forums.appleinsider.com/discussion/189795/apple-inc-snatches-up-14-billion-of-its-own-shares-in-massive-q4-buyback-surge/p1

    Now, if you take 2015 results, While AAPL made $53B  Net Profit in latest year, AAPL spent $12B for dividend  and $30B for Stock Buyback, so they only kept only $11B in their kitty for year ending 2015.

    Institutional investors hold $380B of AAPL Stock, which will demand hefty premium even to think about selling their holding, and AAPL has net debt of $45B locally (If they can't bring outside cash because of hefty penalty) and by what basis you are again suggesting for AAPL to go private?



    Apple's company wide tax rate is 25%
    Before income tax they make about $75 billion in profit.
    Now lets say they tax the entire $75 billion at 35% USA rate
    That leaves $48 billion in cash after ALL TAXES PAID.

    Your calculation is wrong because you assume all the cash Apple holds in foreign countries will be taxed at 35%.  That is wrong.  It will be taxed at the difference of what they paid in foreign tax less the 35%.  So if they already paid 25% tax in China, they would only pay 10% when they brought the money back to the USA.

    Thus even at a full 35% tax rate on all income Apple would have $48 billion in cash a year.

    $48 billion x 7 years = $336 billion
    Apple has $250 billion in cash now.  Remember their company wide tax rate is 25%.  So that $250 billion would only face a 10-15% tax penalty if they brought it back to the USA. So that gives you $212 billion.

    In 7 years they would have $548 billion in domestic cash. 
    Now minus 7 years of dividends and you get $470 billion in cash.


    1)You still can't read, can you?
    ~$50 profit - $12B Dividend - $xx = ~$20-30B Net Cash

    2)Do you know that Yahoo cancelled Alibaba(Which is also based on China) cashout, which has value holding of $33B?
    They even tried to trick US Govt by making it separate holding company for Alibaba shares to avoid tax penalty and still got denied.
    APPL is not bringing cash back to US without major tax holiday, period. If they could have, they would have done it already.
    Now you don't have to keep going to explain why/how AAPL can bring cash back to US to just prove your other worthless point of going private.

    3)Again AAPL have $206B Cash - $64B debt = $142B Cash and not $250B Cash.

    4)AAPL keeps sending money on dividend and buybacks, They are not netting more then 20B on average each year, forget about making $48* x 7. 
    First let it happen for one year without dividend or cashback for any single year and then count it.

    5)Whatever Net Profit AAPL, makes it still staying outside US and not coming back to US.
    That is the the one of the major reason AAPL is buying DEBT locally to pay for dividend and buy backs. (Addition to low interest rates)
    So Whatever Profit AAPL is earning is still staying outside and domestic net profit gets spent on Dividend/buybacks.

    so again No, AAPL doesn't have any cash to buy any stock and no AAPL is not getting cash from international market without any tax holiday.
    So again stop your rant.





    You don't understand the tax on foreign profits in the USA.

    For foreign profits the USA will only tax the incremental amount less than 35% USA tax rate.

    If Apple paid 25% tax in China tax on China profits they would only need to pay 10% to the USA when they bring the money back.  Please understand that law before you go any further.  You are assuming that the $200 billion in foreign cash has never been taxed.  That is false. 

    Your calculation is off.

    Here is the CORRECT calculation:

    $73 billion in profits BEFORE TAXES for FY 2015 (see quarterly SEC report)
    Now multiply that by THE MAXIMUM USA TAXES of 35%
    That gives you $48 billion of cash with ALL TAXES PAID

    $48 billion x 7 years = $336 billion in USA cash after all taxes paid

    Now the current cash in the bank is $200 billion.  Apple must have paid at least 10% taxes on foreign profits.  So the $200 billion in foreign cash would be tax at a maximum of 25%.  That gives you a net of $150 billion.

    So in 7 years Apple would have close to $500 billion in cash.  And the poster I responded too said Apple should only be valued at $620 billion.

    My argument was not that Apple has the cash to buyback all its stock.  My argument was with the guy who said Apple is fairly valued right now if they have flat earnings for the next 7 years. I'm saying that's ridiculous.  Because if Apple has flat earnings the next 7 years they will have almost $500 billion in non-taxable cash and be worth only $620 billion.



    First show me where does it says AAPL paid 25% tax in China? 

    US Corporate tax is ~35-40%. Lets say Avg tax  apple paid is ~25%(Domestic and International combined), so even considering that, AAPL paid ~10-15% tax outside US. (Considering 35% US Tax rate)

    Again it's worthless to discuss this When AAPL or any company for that matter(With $2Trillion Dollars stacked outside) doesn't bring that money back.
    So lets stop this rant without having that cash back.

    You can discuss that in future, When AAPL actually brings that cash to US.
    It hasn't happened in over 30 years, so for your convenience,  AAPL is not bringing cash back now.

    edited December 2015
  • Reply 43 of 81
    sog35 said:

    Apple's one-two punch against the competition is the Apple iPhone Upgrade program, and the fact that future iPhones will have features or abilities the analysts don't know about yet.

    Ben Bajarin tweeted that his data suggests YOY increase in iPhone sales for China but flat or down elsewhere. If that's the case I'm a little surprised since on the last earnings call Cook said the % of install base that had upgraded to the latest phones is still quite low. The question then is why aren't people upgrading. Unless he has bad data, but he's a pretty pro-Apple analyst so I don't think he'd tweet that if he didn't think it was accurate.
    These are the same idiots that said iPhone sales would be down last quarter, and the quarter before that, and the year before that......


    Ben Bajarin is not a Wall Street analyst. His iPhone estimate is in line with Apple's guidance buy of course we know meeting guidance isn't good enough for Apple. If it's not a blow out quarter the company is doomed and if it is they're still doomed because the comps will be too difficult to beat next year.
  • Reply 44 of 81
    Again you are not cutting off current debt 0f ~65$, Annual payout of ~12B/year for Dividend and Annual Buyback,which has been on-going from several years.
    Take all those things out and you are left with much lower cash.

    I don't know what is the correct valuation as I am not analyst, but one thing is fact that Smart Phones in general have reached near peak.
    Today's smart phones are so smart and capable, that it doesn't need replacement every 1-2 years.

    China, were Apple have most growth is because it didn't had iPhones couple of years ago.
    If you think customers in US can hold latest smart phones for 1-3 years, customers in China will hold onto their smart phones for 4-5 years easily.
    If not in next 1-2 years, then in next 3-4 years there will be period for all SmartPhones (Not only for Apple but all including Google 's Android OS/Microsoft), where We will see negative growth in smartphones just like iPads.

    This is what keeping valuation of AAPL down weather anyone likes it or not.

    Why it is not having same impact on Google? Because of two different major source of revenues.


    edited December 2015
  • Reply 45 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:

    shahhet2 said:
    proapple said:
    sog35 said:
    Apple needs to take its stock out of the public market. How?
    1. BOD approval and shareholder approval to take the stock off of the public market
    2. Establish a private market place to buy/sell shares. 
    3. Institute rules that limit manipulation. Such as stock must be held for at least 90 days. These type of limitations are common place with Mutual funds.
    4. Continue to act as a Quasi-public company by reporting quarterly financials to the SEC
    Notice that there is no mention of a buyout of the shareholders. The reason is there is no buyout. Shareholders are simply agreeing to take the shares off of the public market.

    If you take the stock out of the market, most of the mutual funds and institutional holders will need to liquidate.  They will be asking for a premium to buy them out.  By their own by-laws, they are not allow to invest in these non public companies.

    Cannot establish a private market place.  Other security companies can establish private markets to exchange, but what will happen is it gets listed on pink sheet.  Apple cannot interact with small investors.  Only accredited investors are allowed, so this means that people have to have over 500k investable income to qualify or what the law deems as accredited investors.

    They cannot institute rules that limit manipulation, but probably can do other things that may result in similar behavior changes.  

    Majority of shareholders of apple are held by institutions who cannot hold a non public company in their funds.  So a buyout is necessary.

    If you take a stock private, most of the folks here will not be able to partake in the company's good times.
    Your retirement account will not be able to participate.  Unless you are trading pink sheet, you will not be able to buy/sell.  
    Anytime there is liquidity in this stock, then there will be market makers and it will be categorized as public traded and all the so call "bad actors" will be back in business.  

    There is no solution for Apple.  Only Congress can solve this problem.

    It's not going to get him.
    On top of that, APPL has domestic cash of only $19B vs domestic Debt of $67B dollars.
    All other cash that APPL have  ($187B out of $206B) is stored outside US and can't be brought back without hefty penalty.
    So, no APPL doesn't have cash to buy back their own stock at 50-100% premium to convince MFs to sell their holding.

    Top it with 60% Institutional ownership, which means 60% of 630B$ = ~$380B is owned by institutional investors.

    I don't know why even I wasted time to reply but couldn't resist how dumb a person could be.


    How do you know if the penalty would be hefty?

    If Apple already paid 25% tax on those foreign earnings they would only need to pay 10% to the USA if they brought the cash back.

    Apple's company wide tax rate was 25% the last few years.  So it is a given that a big chunk of that $200 billion in foreign cash has already been taxed in foreign countries.  Meaning if they brought the cash back they won't be paying now where close to 35% incremental tax.
    Again same rant.
    Why don't you look it yourself and do some math calculations yourself if smart enough?
    Here are few clues:
    From bloomberg "As a result, more than $2 trillion is being stockpiled overseas by U.S. companies."
    Every major corporate company (Including Goog/Amzn) keeps their money at places where they pay 0-10% tax rate. I don't have to give you further clue where in Europe they keep it dodge tax correct?

    Explain me, Why Yahoo decided to not brig $33 Cash with paying penalty to US Gov and you will find your answers.

    Again, You don't have to go into another swirl loop of How AAPL is bringing it's cash to prove another point of going private.
    It didn't happened for reason. 

    Second clue,
    Read this article how AAPL shows it's 25% tax paid vs how reality shows.(13.8%)
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/11/01/so-how-much-tax-did-apple-pay/

    Here is text from there and you can check yourself for latest quarter/year.
    "Apple’s own claim is as follows:

    The Company’s effective tax rates were approximately 25.2%, 24.2%, and 24.4% for 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. The Company’s effective rates for these periods differ from the statutory federal income tax rate of 35% due primarily to certain undistributed foreign earnings for which no U.S. taxes are provided because such earnings are intended to be indefinitely reinvested outside the U.S.

    This is the well known dodge: if you don’t bring foreign profits back to the US then you don’t have to pay US taxes on them. An entirely legal dodge it should be pointed out.

    However, that’s not what they actually paid out in this financial year.

    Income before provision for income taxes 55,763

    Cash paid for income taxes, net 7,682

    Divide one by the other and we get a tax rate of 13.8%. Which is certainly different from the 25.2% they claim. And no, this difference is not because of the offshore profits thing. That’s already been accounted for in the 25.2%."

    The only numbers you should trust is on Apple's SEC reports.  Not some Forbes article.

    FY 2015 Apple PAID $13.3 billion in income taxes. That's PAID as in cash going out.  Go check the Statement of Cash flow on the SEC yearly report.

    About 35% of revenue and profit is from the USA ( 40% from the American's)
    Apple made $54 billion in profit last year.
    That gives the USA about $18.9 billion in profit ( $54 billion x 35%)
    That means they paid $6.6 billion in USA taxes ( $18.9 billion x 35%)

    That means Apple PAID $6.7 billion in FOREIGN taxes.
    Foreign profits were $35 billion ( $54 billion less $19 billion USA profits)
    That means Apple PAID 19% tax rate on foreign profits ( $6.7 billion divided by $35 billion)

    That means if Apple brings back that foreign cash they would  only need to pay a tax rate of 16%  ( 19% foreign rate + 16% USA rate = 35% total rate)


    The last 3 years Apple's effective tax rate has been pretty flat at 25%.
    So its pretty obvious that the foreign cash would not be taxed at the full 35% if it was brought back to the USA.  I'd say that foreign cash has been taxed at least 15-25% already on foreign tax returns. 
    Again it's moot point to discuss unless AAPL brings it's cash back.

  • Reply 46 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:

    shahhet2 said:
    proapple said:
    sog35 said:
    Apple needs to take its stock out of the public market. How?
    1. BOD approval and shareholder approval to take the stock off of the public market
    2. Establish a private market place to buy/sell shares. 
    3. Institute rules that limit manipulation. Such as stock must be held for at least 90 days. These type of limitations are common place with Mutual funds.
    4. Continue to act as a Quasi-public company by reporting quarterly financials to the SEC
    Notice that there is no mention of a buyout of the shareholders. The reason is there is no buyout. Shareholders are simply agreeing to take the shares off of the public market.

    If you take the stock out of the market, most of the mutual funds and institutional holders will need to liquidate.  They will be asking for a premium to buy them out.  By their own by-laws, they are not allow to invest in these non public companies.

    Cannot establish a private market place.  Other security companies can establish private markets to exchange, but what will happen is it gets listed on pink sheet.  Apple cannot interact with small investors.  Only accredited investors are allowed, so this means that people have to have over 500k investable income to qualify or what the law deems as accredited investors.

    They cannot institute rules that limit manipulation, but probably can do other things that may result in similar behavior changes.  

    Majority of shareholders of apple are held by institutions who cannot hold a non public company in their funds.  So a buyout is necessary.

    If you take a stock private, most of the folks here will not be able to partake in the company's good times.
    Your retirement account will not be able to participate.  Unless you are trading pink sheet, you will not be able to buy/sell.  
    Anytime there is liquidity in this stock, then there will be market makers and it will be categorized as public traded and all the so call "bad actors" will be back in business.  

    There is no solution for Apple.  Only Congress can solve this problem.

    It's not going to get him.
    On top of that, APPL has domestic cash of only $19B vs domestic Debt of $67B dollars.
    All other cash that APPL have  ($187B out of $206B) is stored outside US and can't be brought back without hefty penalty.
    So, no APPL doesn't have cash to buy back their own stock at 50-100% premium to convince MFs to sell their holding.

    Top it with 60% Institutional ownership, which means 60% of 630B$ = ~$380B is owned by institutional investors.

    I don't know why even I wasted time to reply but couldn't resist how dumb a person could be.


    How do you know if the penalty would be hefty?

    If Apple already paid 25% tax on those foreign earnings they would only need to pay 10% to the USA if they brought the cash back.

    Apple's company wide tax rate was 25% the last few years.  So it is a given that a big chunk of that $200 billion in foreign cash has already been taxed in foreign countries.  Meaning if they brought the cash back they won't be paying now where close to 35% incremental tax.
    Again same rant.
    Why don't you look it yourself and do some math calculations yourself if smart enough?
    Here are few clues:
    From bloomberg "As a result, more than $2 trillion is being stockpiled overseas by U.S. companies."
    Every major corporate company (Including Goog/Amzn) keeps their money at places where they pay 0-10% tax rate. I don't have to give you further clue where in Europe they keep it dodge tax correct?

    Explain me, Why Yahoo decided to not brig $33 Cash with paying penalty to US Gov and you will find your answers.

    Again, You don't have to go into another swirl loop of How AAPL is bringing it's cash to prove another point of going private.
    It didn't happened for reason. 

    Second clue,
    Read this article how AAPL shows it's 25% tax paid vs how reality shows.(13.8%)
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/11/01/so-how-much-tax-did-apple-pay/

    Here is text from there and you can check yourself for latest quarter/year.
    "Apple’s own claim is as follows:

    The Company’s effective tax rates were approximately 25.2%, 24.2%, and 24.4% for 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. The Company’s effective rates for these periods differ from the statutory federal income tax rate of 35% due primarily to certain undistributed foreign earnings for which no U.S. taxes are provided because such earnings are intended to be indefinitely reinvested outside the U.S.

    This is the well known dodge: if you don’t bring foreign profits back to the US then you don’t have to pay US taxes on them. An entirely legal dodge it should be pointed out.

    However, that’s not what they actually paid out in this financial year.

    Income before provision for income taxes 55,763

    Cash paid for income taxes, net 7,682

    Divide one by the other and we get a tax rate of 13.8%. Which is certainly different from the 25.2% they claim. And no, this difference is not because of the offshore profits thing. That’s already been accounted for in the 25.2%."

    The only numbers you should trust is on Apple's SEC reports.  Not some Forbes article.

    FY 2015 Apple PAID $13.3 billion in income taxes. That's PAID as in cash going out.  Go check the Statement of Cash flow on the SEC yearly report.

    About 35% of revenue and profit is from the USA ( 40% from the American's)
    Apple made $54 billion in profit last year.
    That gives the USA about $18.9 billion in profit ( $54 billion x 35%)
    That means they paid $6.6 billion in USA taxes ( $18.9 billion x 35%)

    That means Apple PAID $6.7 billion in FOREIGN taxes.
    Foreign profits were $35 billion ( $54 billion less $19 billion USA profits)
    That means Apple PAID 19% tax rate on foreign profits ( $6.7 billion divided by $35 billion)

    That means if Apple brings back that foreign cash they would  only need to pay a tax rate of 16%  ( 19% foreign rate + 16% USA rate = 35% total rate)


    The last 3 years Apple's effective tax rate has been pretty flat at 25%.
    So its pretty obvious that the foreign cash would not be taxed at the full 35% if it was brought back to the USA.  I'd say that foreign cash has been taxed at least 15-25% already on foreign tax returns. 
    Again it's moot point to discuss unless AAPL brings it's cash back.

    so now that i have the numbers to back up my point its a moot point?  LOL.
    Nope, I have shown you over and over that you are not cutting Debt off, Dividend and Buybacks.
    Cut all those down from profit in addition to foreign tax and you will be left with much lower cash for each year.
    Check above post as I am not going to keep spending time to explain same thing over and over.

    Why don't you change your rant first for AAPL to  bring cash back  home in every thread before rant about going private now.
    At least that will freshen up some posts rather then posting same private thingy over and over.
    Something(Bringing cash back to avoid tax) that hasn't happened in past would happen now because?

    edited December 2015
  • Reply 47 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:

    shahhet2 said:
    proapple said:
    sog35 said:
    Apple needs to take its stock out of the public market. How?
    1. BOD approval and shareholder approval to take the stock off of the public market
    2. Establish a private market place to buy/sell shares. 
    3. Institute rules that limit manipulation. Such as stock must be held for at least 90 days. These type of limitations are common place with Mutual funds.
    4. Continue to act as a Quasi-public company by reporting quarterly financials to the SEC
    Notice that there is no mention of a buyout of the shareholders. The reason is there is no buyout. Shareholders are simply agreeing to take the shares off of the public market.

    If you take the stock out of the market, most of the mutual funds and institutional holders will need to liquidate.  They will be asking for a premium to buy them out.  By their own by-laws, they are not allow to invest in these non public companies.

    Cannot establish a private market place.  Other security companies can establish private markets to exchange, but what will happen is it gets listed on pink sheet.  Apple cannot interact with small investors.  Only accredited investors are allowed, so this means that people have to have over 500k investable income to qualify or what the law deems as accredited investors.

    They cannot institute rules that limit manipulation, but probably can do other things that may result in similar behavior changes.  

    Majority of shareholders of apple are held by institutions who cannot hold a non public company in their funds.  So a buyout is necessary.

    If you take a stock private, most of the folks here will not be able to partake in the company's good times.
    Your retirement account will not be able to participate.  Unless you are trading pink sheet, you will not be able to buy/sell.  
    Anytime there is liquidity in this stock, then there will be market makers and it will be categorized as public traded and all the so call "bad actors" will be back in business.  

    There is no solution for Apple.  Only Congress can solve this problem.

    It's not going to get him.
    On top of that, APPL has domestic cash of only $19B vs domestic Debt of $67B dollars.
    All other cash that APPL have  ($187B out of $206B) is stored outside US and can't be brought back without hefty penalty.
    So, no APPL doesn't have cash to buy back their own stock at 50-100% premium to convince MFs to sell their holding.

    Top it with 60% Institutional ownership, which means 60% of 630B$ = ~$380B is owned by institutional investors.

    I don't know why even I wasted time to reply but couldn't resist how dumb a person could be.


    How do you know if the penalty would be hefty?

    If Apple already paid 25% tax on those foreign earnings they would only need to pay 10% to the USA if they brought the cash back.

    Apple's company wide tax rate was 25% the last few years.  So it is a given that a big chunk of that $200 billion in foreign cash has already been taxed in foreign countries.  Meaning if they brought the cash back they won't be paying now where close to 35% incremental tax.
    Again same rant.
    Why don't you look it yourself and do some math calculations yourself if smart enough?
    Here are few clues:
    From bloomberg "As a result, more than $2 trillion is being stockpiled overseas by U.S. companies."
    Every major corporate company (Including Goog/Amzn) keeps their money at places where they pay 0-10% tax rate. I don't have to give you further clue where in Europe they keep it dodge tax correct?

    Explain me, Why Yahoo decided to not brig $33 Cash with paying penalty to US Gov and you will find your answers.

    Again, You don't have to go into another swirl loop of How AAPL is bringing it's cash to prove another point of going private.
    It didn't happened for reason. 

    Second clue,
    Read this article how AAPL shows it's 25% tax paid vs how reality shows.(13.8%)
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/timworstall/2012/11/01/so-how-much-tax-did-apple-pay/

    Here is text from there and you can check yourself for latest quarter/year.
    "Apple’s own claim is as follows:

    The Company’s effective tax rates were approximately 25.2%, 24.2%, and 24.4% for 2012, 2011, and 2010, respectively. The Company’s effective rates for these periods differ from the statutory federal income tax rate of 35% due primarily to certain undistributed foreign earnings for which no U.S. taxes are provided because such earnings are intended to be indefinitely reinvested outside the U.S.

    This is the well known dodge: if you don’t bring foreign profits back to the US then you don’t have to pay US taxes on them. An entirely legal dodge it should be pointed out.

    However, that’s not what they actually paid out in this financial year.

    Income before provision for income taxes 55,763

    Cash paid for income taxes, net 7,682

    Divide one by the other and we get a tax rate of 13.8%. Which is certainly different from the 25.2% they claim. And no, this difference is not because of the offshore profits thing. That’s already been accounted for in the 25.2%."

    The only numbers you should trust is on Apple's SEC reports.  Not some Forbes article.

    FY 2015 Apple PAID $13.3 billion in income taxes. That's PAID as in cash going out.  Go check the Statement of Cash flow on the SEC yearly report.

    About 35% of revenue and profit is from the USA ( 40% from the American's)
    Apple made $54 billion in profit last year.
    That gives the USA about $18.9 billion in profit ( $54 billion x 35%)
    That means they paid $6.6 billion in USA taxes ( $18.9 billion x 35%)

    That means Apple PAID $6.7 billion in FOREIGN taxes.
    Foreign profits were $35 billion ( $54 billion less $19 billion USA profits)
    That means Apple PAID 19% tax rate on foreign profits ( $6.7 billion divided by $35 billion)

    That means if Apple brings back that foreign cash they would  only need to pay a tax rate of 16%  ( 19% foreign rate + 16% USA rate = 35% total rate)


    The last 3 years Apple's effective tax rate has been pretty flat at 25%.
    So its pretty obvious that the foreign cash would not be taxed at the full 35% if it was brought back to the USA.  I'd say that foreign cash has been taxed at least 15-25% already on foreign tax returns. 
    Again it's moot point to discuss unless AAPL brings it's cash back.

    so now that i have the numbers to back up my point its a moot point?  LOL.
    Nope, I have shows over and over that you are not cutting Debt off, Dividend adn Buybacks.
    Check above post as I am not going to keep spending time to explain same thing over and over.

    Why don't you change your rant first for AAPL to  bring cash back to home in every thread before rant about going private now.
    At least that will freshen up some posts rather then posting same private thingy over and over.
    Something(Bringing cash back to avoid tax) that hasn't happened in past would happen now because?


    So now you are changing the perimeters.  Good job.

    Debt is of no concern. Its called long term debt for a reason. 
    Buybacks can easily be stopped.
    Dividends paid are considered a return on investment and that's why I did not include them in the calculation.

    At this point you don't even know what you are arguing about. My whole post about cash was about the other poster who said that Apple would need to have flat profits for the next 7 years to justify its current valuation of $625 billion.  My calculation is to show that in 7 years with flat profits Apple would have generated $500 billion (including dividends paid) of after tax cash.  So a valuation of $625 billion is ridiculous.


    I was just replying to your rant about going private which is driving everybody nuts.
    As far as you got the point that it can't get private, I don't have anything else to argue with.
    Again please don't discuss the point of going private unless someday Appl brings that cash back home after paying penalty.
    It hasn't happened last 50 years, so no need to assume will happen suddenly unless it really happens.

  • Reply 48 of 81
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    eriamjh said:
    mobius said:
    The idea of "Peak iPhone" generated clickbait headlines, but the real story is that channel checks have historically been extremely worthless at predicting Apple's actual performance.
    Is grammatical correctness no longer a requirement of "professionally" written articles anymore?
    Could you diagram what you find wrong with the above sentence and identify the incorrectness of it?  Unless I fail english, I see nothing seemingly incongruent.
    At a try: with worthless being an absolute, like infinity, the "extremely" is unnecessary. Maybe like "Double Infinity"?
  • Reply 48 of 81
    crowleycrowley Posts: 6,056member
    sog35 said:

    The only numbers you should trust is on Apple's SEC reports.  Not some Forbes article.

    FY 2015 Apple PAID $13.3 billion in income taxes. That's PAID as in cash going out.  Go check the Statement of Cash flow on the SEC yearly report.

    About 35% of revenue and profit is from the USA ( 40% from the American's)
    Apple made $54 billion in profit last year.
    That gives the USA about $18.9 billion in profit ( $54 billion x 35%)
    That means they paid $6.6 billion in USA taxes ( $18.9 billion x 35%)

    That means Apple PAID $6.7 billion in FOREIGN taxes.
    Foreign profits were $35 billion ( $54 billion less $19 billion USA profits)
    That means Apple PAID 19% tax rate on foreign profits ( $6.7 billion divided by $35 billion)

    That means if Apple brings back that foreign cash they would  only need to pay a tax rate of 16%  ( 19% foreign rate + 16% USA rate = 35% total rate)


    The last 3 years Apple's effective tax rate has been pretty flat at 25%.
    So its pretty obvious that the foreign cash would not be taxed at the full 35% if it was brought back to the USA.  I'd say that foreign cash has been taxed at least 15-25% already on foreign tax returns. 
    Does the $6.7 billion include sales tax, property tax, and/or any other taxes other than corporation tax?  Apple can only offset corporation tax paid against the 35% rate.
  • Reply 50 of 81
    jfc1138jfc1138 Posts: 3,090member
    eriamjh said:
    mobius said:
    The idea of "Peak iPhone" generated clickbait headlines, but the real story is that channel checks have historically been extremely worthless at predicting Apple's actual performance.
    Is grammatical correctness no longer a requirement of "professionally" written articles anymore?
    Could you diagram what you find wrong with the above sentence and identify the incorrectness of it?  Unless I fail english, I see nothing seemingly incongruent.
    At a try: with worthless being an absolute, like infinity, the "extremely" is unnecessary. Maybe like "Double Infinity"?
  • Reply 50 of 81
    sog35 said:
    shahhet2 said:
    sog35 said:

    You don't understand the tax on foreign profits in the USA.

    For foreign profits the USA will only tax the incremental amount less than 35% USA tax rate.

    If Apple paid 25% tax in China tax on China profits they would only need to pay 10% to the USA when they bring the money back.  Please understand that law before you go any further.  You are assuming that the $200 billion in foreign cash has never been taxed.  That is false. 

    Your calculation is off.

    Here is the CORRECT calculation:

    $73 billion in profits BEFORE TAXES for FY 2015 (see quarterly SEC report)
    Now multiply that by THE MAXIMUM USA TAXES of 35%
    That gives you $48 billion of cash with ALL TAXES PAID

    $48 billion x 7 years = $336 billion in USA cash after all taxes paid

    Now the current cash in the bank is $200 billion.  Apple must have paid at least 10% taxes on foreign profits.  So the $200 billion in foreign cash would be tax at a maximum of 25%.  That gives you a net of $150 billion.

    So in 7 years Apple would have close to $500 billion in cash.  And the poster I responded too said Apple should only be valued at $620 billion.

    My argument was not that Apple has the cash to buyback all its stock.  My argument was with the guy who said Apple is fairly valued right now if they have flat earnings for the next 7 years. I'm saying that's ridiculous.  Because if Apple has flat earnings the next 7 years they will have almost $500 billion in non-taxable cash and be worth only $620 billion.




     First show me where does it says AAPL paid 25% tax in China? and look for above post so you can do some basic school math.
    Lets just forget about the taxes in previous years.

    I'll just focus on the future taxes.

    Like I said Apple made about $75 billion in profits last year BEFORE TAXES.

    $75 billion x 35% tax rate = $26 billion in taxes

    That leaves $49 billion in cash net of taxes

    $49 billion x 7 years = $343 billion in cash
    $200 billion in bank x 65% = $130 billion in cash net of tax

    Thats gives you a total of $475 billion in cash in 7 years if earnings are FLAT.

    So does that sense for a company to be valued at $625 billion if they will have close to $500 in cash in 7 years?
  • Reply 52 of 81
    crowleycrowley Posts: 6,056member
    sog35 said:

    The only numbers you should trust is on Apple's SEC reports.  Not some Forbes article.

    FY 2015 Apple PAID $13.3 billion in income taxes. That's PAID as in cash going out.  Go check the Statement of Cash flow on the SEC yearly report.

    About 35% of revenue and profit is from the USA ( 40% from the American's)
    Apple made $54 billion in profit last year.
    That gives the USA about $18.9 billion in profit ( $54 billion x 35%)
    That means they paid $6.6 billion in USA taxes ( $18.9 billion x 35%)

    That means Apple PAID $6.7 billion in FOREIGN taxes.
    Foreign profits were $35 billion ( $54 billion less $19 billion USA profits)
    That means Apple PAID 19% tax rate on foreign profits ( $6.7 billion divided by $35 billion)

    That means if Apple brings back that foreign cash they would  only need to pay a tax rate of 16%  ( 19% foreign rate + 16% USA rate = 35% total rate)


    The last 3 years Apple's effective tax rate has been pretty flat at 25%.
    So its pretty obvious that the foreign cash would not be taxed at the full 35% if it was brought back to the USA.  I'd say that foreign cash has been taxed at least 15-25% already on foreign tax returns. 
    Does the $6.7 billion include sales tax, property tax, and/or any other taxes other than corporation tax?  Apple can only offset corporation tax paid against the 35% rate.
  • Reply 53 of 81
    mac_128mac_128 Posts: 3,452member
    shahhet2 said:
    I was just replying to your rant about going private which is driving everybody nuts.
    As far as you got the point that it can't get private, I don't have anything else to argue with.
    Again please don't discuss the point of going private unless someday Appl brings that cash back home after paying penalty.
    It hasn't happened last 50 years, so no need to assume will happen suddenly unless it really happens.

    Apple going private would be the worst thing that could happen to forums like this. If there were no stock to manipulate, what would people debate about?
  • Reply 54 of 81
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    What do people in the US have against dividends?  Why are they seemingly not in favour while buybacks are?

    Buybacks don't seem to have had the intended effect.  I think significantly increased dividends would, even if that means repatriating overseas earned cash and paying the tax differential owing on it.
  • Reply 55 of 81
    crowleycrowley Posts: 6,056member
    sog35 said:
    crowley said:

    Does the $6.7 billion include sales tax, property tax, and/or any other taxes other than corporation tax?  Apple can only offset corporation tax paid against the 35% rate.
    only income tax
    Corporations don't pay income tax.
  • Reply 56 of 81

    I was just replying to your rant about going private which is driving everybody nuts.
    As far as you got the point that it can't get private, I don't have anything else to argue with.
    Again please don't discuss the point of going private unless someday Appl brings that cash back home after paying penalty.
    It hasn't happened last 50 years, so no need to assume will happen suddenly unless it really happens.

    Actually Apple could have easily repatriated some of the foreign cash YEARS ago.  Looking at the 25% effective tax rate it is quite likely that Apple has repatriated some of the overseas cash the last few years.
    Again it hasn't happened in 50 years, so no need to assume it will happen without any tax holiday.
    Lets talk again when it actually happens somewhere in next 50 years.

    Also as of latest results, APPL have $19B domestic Cash and $187B foreign cash and $64B debt, So no matter how you would cut the crap, it still have $187B cash parked outside US.

    edited December 2015
  • Reply 57 of 81
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    sog35 said:

    cnocbui said:
    What do people in the US have against dividends?  Why are they seemingly not in favour while buybacks are?

    Buybacks don't seem to have had the intended effect.  I think significantly increased dividends would, even if that means repatriating overseas earned cash and paying the tax differential owing on it.
    I think its because investors need to pay taxes on dividends.
    Plus companies that pay high dividends are look upon as low growth companies.
    Buybacks are supposed to have the effect of reducing supply and increasing the share price correspondingly, so for investors to benefit they then have to realise a capital gain.  Is there no capital gains tax in the US on selling shares for a profit or is it low relative to income tax rates?

    In Australia, most share dividends are franked so investors pay little if any income tax on dividend income.  In Ireland, the government considers it a crime for a person to have any money in a bank account that earns interest so they tax it at 41%.  Good thing interest rates are almost zero.
    edited December 2015
  • Reply 58 of 81
    dasanman69dasanman69 Posts: 12,985member
    Guys, and gals; please edits your posts. Nobody wants to spend 10 minutes scrolling down to see a comment. 
    nolamacguyfastasleepDan Andersen
  • Reply 59 of 81
    nonsense. their vision is clear -- make amazing goods people want to buy. even if you took away iPhone their other lines of business are each bigger than other entire companies. major companies at that.
    What company doesn't have that vision? What about that is unique to Apple?
    what more vision must they state? they build CE devices very, very well, and they continue to improve them as nobody else can. they dont need to write a novel about it.

    Cook is doing fine. he's leading the worlds leading tech firm into the most successful era its ever been in. and yes, he's gay, which is a problem for you for some reason.
  • Reply 60 of 81
    Guys, and gals; please edits your posts. Nobody wants to spend 10 minutes scrolling down to see a comment. 
    this. how AI fixes the site to honor our settings to not nest quotes...
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