Apple investor fears about China & iPhone 6s are 'overblown,' FBR says

Posted:
in iPhone edited January 2016
As shares of Apple continue to hover just above $100, investment firm FBR stood by the iPhone maker on Monday, saying that the overly negative sentiment on Wall Street is not justified.




Analyst Daniel H. Ives acknowledged that while Apple stock is in a "turbulent" period, he believes investors should buy in while shares are affordably priced. To him, fears over growth slowing at Apple are "overblown."

"We believe Bearish sentiment has swung too far now, as (Apple CEO Tim) Cook has a relatively low iPhone unit bar for the dreaded March and June quarters," Ives wrote.

Admitting that Apple stock has seen a "miserable, dark period over the last few months," Ives believes investors are underestimating the company's potential heading into 2016. In particular, he anticipates an "iPhone 7" upgrade in September to reignite growth, attracting many users who have not yet upgraded to a larger iPhone screen size.

In the interim, he believes the iPhone 6s has seen "less than stellar" demand, but is still in a position to exceed expectations in the coming quarters.

"With our initial read on the December quarter/holiday season coming in relatively strong, we believe Apple should be able to hit the Street's iPhone forecasts for (the first quarter of calendar 2016) and that March/June estimates are now achievable with supply chain data points."

Shares of Apple fell Monday, the first day of trading in 2016, amid significant drops across the U.S. markets. The losses were attributed to reports out of China suggesting its economy is slowing down.

China has proven to be an especially pivotal part of Apple's continuing growth strategy, as the country will soon become the iPhone maker's largest.

Ives believes that China will remain the "main fuel tank" for Apple as it pushes into 2016. He sees the company selling more than 220 million iPhone units this year, which he called a "commendable achievement for an 'S' product cycle."

Though FBR is standing by Apple, the firm did cut its estimates last month amid fears of the iPhone 6s not driving growth. The firm has nevertheless maintained an "outperform" rating for shares of AAPL, with a price target of $150.
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Comments

  • Reply 1 of 30
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    LOL. Analysts...
  • Reply 2 of 30
    lkrupplkrupp Posts: 8,993member
    Translation: Investors swallowed the Apple is Doomed™ mantra hook, line, and sinker. Tell a lie often enough and people will start to believe it. Human nature at its best.
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 3 of 30
    Ive was the analyst who talked down the stock last week and lowered his price target.  Now that the stock has tanked, he's saying, "Hey guys, it's not that bad!"  
    Yeesh!!  Analysts !@#!!%&**!!

    Dr. Scott
  • Reply 4 of 30
    vvswarupvvswarup Posts: 332member
    sog35 said:
    Friken pathetic that it takes an analyst to call out those supply check bullshit instead of the Apple CEO who is getting paid $100,000,000 a year.

    Tim Cook is great at operations but he's a total loser at controlling the company message.
    He allows worthless media and analysist to crap on the company name and he does NOTHING.
    Stock has lost over $30 the last few months. The stock is down almost $200,000,000,000 and yet Cook says nothing.


    Tim Cook has already told analysts that they can't conclude anything on the basis of supply chain checks. If analysts continue to do so, blame the buy-side analysts who are the reason those analysts still have a job. 
  • Reply 5 of 30
    So basically he's saying the bar has been set so low now it should be easy for Apple to cross it. Lol

    I did notice that AAPL is down less than a quarter of a percent today while most other stocks are down 2-5% or more. I don't know if that just means AAPL was way over sold and now these other stocks that have had huge run ups are taking the hit. Though AAPL was down 2% when the market first opened and has climbed it's way up all day.
  • Reply 6 of 30
    Tim Cook has already said trying to glean anything from supply chain noise is stupid. There's nothing he can do if Wall Street chooses to ignore what he says. I would assume he's got more important things to do than spend his time on CNBC refuting supply chain rumors.
  • Reply 7 of 30
    crowleycrowley Posts: 7,622member
    I wonder what this analyst's definition of "less than stellar" equates to?  Seems like the iPhone 6S and 6S+ have been selling just fine, and likely more than any other phone on the planet.  Maybe that's it, sales won't be stellar until they're selling off-world?
    neil anderson
  • Reply 8 of 30
    fallenjtfallenjt Posts: 4,018member
    sog35 said:
    So basically he's saying the bar has been set so low now it should be easy for Apple to cross it. Lol

    I did notice that AAPL is down less than a quarter of a percent today while most other stocks are down 2-5% or more. I don't know if that just means AAPL was way over sold and now these other stocks that have had huge run ups are taking the hit. Though AAPL was down 2% when the market first opened and has climbed it's way up all day.
    stock is now down more than 1%.
    Wont be surprised if it keeps going down to 2% by end of day.

    Absolutely pathetic that Tim Cook sits on his hands while this stock has been destroyed the last 2 months based on absolute lies. His gross negligence in not protecting the stock price and the Apple name is shameful.  Steve Jobs would have never allowed this type of slander to happen to his company.
    I know you're fucking panicking about AAPL going south, but blaming on CEO is totally BS when the company is making tons of profit quarter after quarter.  You liost due to WS analyts, not Apple CEO. Get that damn thing straight. If you have sided with WS the whole time on AAPL and made tons of money, would you still complain now or just sit on your ass and laugh?
    radarthekat
  • Reply 9 of 30
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member

    What 'lies' would those be?

    I would say Ives analysis should be taken with a pinch of salt, given what has been happening in China today. Worse than expected manufacturing data, the share market tanked 7% shortly after opening, trading was suspended for the day and the Chinese government is wading into foreign banks to prevent them from doing currency transactions that are abetting a flight of capital.
    It would not surprise me if things are actually much worse in China than have been portrayed. Hang on to your hats.
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 10 of 30
    2old4fun2old4fun Posts: 236member
    @sog35 it would be so nice if you could refrain from saying anything about Tim Cook as it is apparent that you have no understanding of the requirements to run a major corporation. Mr. Cook has things he must do and things he should not do and the responsibility to know the difference.
    fastasleep
  • Reply 11 of 30
    sog35 said:
    cnocbui said:

    What 'lies' would those be?

    I would say Ives analysis should be taken with a pinch of salt, given what has been happening in China today. Worse than expected manufacturing data, the share market tanked 7% shortly after opening, trading was suspended for the day and the Chinese government is wading into foreign banks to prevent them from doing currency transactions that are abetting a flight of capital.
    It would not surprise me if things are actually much worse in China than have been portrayed. Hang on to your hats.
    What lies?

    The lies that supply chain checks are showing that iPhone sales for the Dec quarter are absolutely horrible.
    Its the same lie that came up DOZENS of times the last two months by at least 50 media outlets and dozens of analysts.

    Today's stock price drop from China is nothing. I'm talking about the $29 drop that happenned before today.
    Except most of that isn't about December it's about March and June. Tim Cook is not going to comment on that. 
  • Reply 12 of 30
    "In particular, he anticipates an "iPhone 7" upgrade in September to reignite growth, attracting many users who have not yet upgraded to a larger iPhone screen size."

    Sheer baloney. Apple has zero to gain by coming out with a new iPhone before it's normal mid-to-late September launch. Just a reason to hack at AAPL when these "anticipations" don't materialize.
    edited January 2016
  • Reply 13 of 30

    sog35 said:
    For those who don't think these FLATOUT LIES and BULLSHIT don't hurt Apple stock watch this video that Cramer explains why Apple is such a great stock to short and manipulate.

    http://fortune.com/2009/03/13/stewart-slams-cramer-with-apple-video/

    basically its because Apple does not refute lies and rumors.

    “You can’t create yourself an impression that a stock is down, but you do it anyway because the SEC doesn’t understand it … Apple’s very important to spread the rumor that both Verizon and AT&T have decided they don’t like the phone … You also want to spread the rumor that it’s not going to be ready for Macworld. And this is very easy because the people who write about Apple want that story, and you can claim that it’s credible because you spoke to someone at Apple, ’cause Apple doesn’t … they’re not going to comment … So it’s really an ideal short. And again if I were short Apple, I’d pick up the phone and I’d do that today.“ Jim Cramer on Manipulating Apple

    This SHIT has been going on for YEARS and yet Tim Cook refuses to do anything.
    YOUR shit has been going on far too long, and I only remember noticing you a few days ago....
    SpamSandwichlord amhransingularityjonl
  • Reply 14 of 30
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    sog35 said:
    cnocbui said:

    What 'lies' would those be?

    I would say Ives analysis should be taken with a pinch of salt, given what has been happening in China today. Worse than expected manufacturing data, the share market tanked 7% shortly after opening, trading was suspended for the day and the Chinese government is wading into foreign banks to prevent them from doing currency transactions that are abetting a flight of capital.
    It would not surprise me if things are actually much worse in China than have been portrayed. Hang on to your hats.
    What lies?

    The lies that supply chain checks are showing that iPhone sales for the Dec quarter are absolutely horrible.
    Its the same lie that came up DOZENS of times the last two months by at least 50 media outlets and dozens of analysts.

    Today's stock price drop from China is nothing. I'm talking about the $29 drop that happenned before today.
    How do you know they are lies?  What proof do you have that the reports are untrue?

    A 7% fall in China's stock market in a fraction of a day is nothing?  You don't think that Investors in China have any clue as to the real state of their economy?  You don't think that what is looking to be a far worse slowdown in China than has hitherto been reported, is likely to have any negative repercussions?  You don't think the prospects  for iPhone sales in a market touted as becoming Apples largest may have changed or that investors shouldn't give the matter some thought?
  • Reply 15 of 30
    sacto joe said:
    "In particular, he anticipates an "iPhone 7" upgrade in September to reignite growth, attracting many users who have not yet upgraded to a larger iPhone screen size."

    Sheer baloney. Apple has zero to gain by coming out with a new iPhone before it's normal mid-to-late September launch. Just a reason to hack at AAPL when these "anticipations" don't materialize.
    I scratch my head a bit about these analysts iPhone 7 comments. What exactly are they expecting from the iPhone 7 that will make all these people who haven't upgraded yet now upgrade? They never say. Their commentary doesn't go much further than "the 6S is doomed but the 7 will be huge". Why?
  • Reply 16 of 30
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,408member
    sacto joe said:

    YOUR shit has been going on far too long, and I only remember noticing you a few days ago....
    Block him and move on. Nothing to see here. "Move along...move along..."
    lord amhran
  • Reply 17 of 30
    brucemcbrucemc Posts: 1,541member
    sacto joe said:
    YOUR shit has been going on far too long, and I only remember noticing you a few days ago....
    Block him and move on. Nothing to see here. "Move along...move along..."
    Please.  It is clear after multiple times reporting the obvious trolling of every thread that AI mods are not interested in dealing with it.  Best then for as many people as possible to block him.  When no one responds to him, he will hopefully move a new site.
  • Reply 18 of 30
    brucemc said:
    Block him and move on. Nothing to see here. "Move along...move along..."
    Please.  It is clear after multiple times reporting the obvious trolling of every thread that AI mods are not interested in dealing with it.  Best then for as many people as possible to block him.  When no one responds to him, he will hopefully move a new site.
    Precisely.
  • Reply 19 of 30
    Only 30% of iPhone owners upgraded to 6 series. You cannot sell an iPhone 6 series to an iPad owner. They just know enough that an iPhone 6 series can never be a substitute for an iPad. Yet the management communicated the message "why would you buy an iPad while there are 6 series..." That is utterly wrong and clearly the Samsung way. Someone at Apple marketing managed to push Apple into Samsung way and that failed definitively as we witness several appearances of it. Hopefully there will be a 4 inch iPhone which will push the remaining 70% of iPhone users to upgrade and hopefully there is the boss who devoted himself to the message of Steve Jobs carried by the iPad.

    Android switchers? Forget it, they are as dry as a bone in the desert... They don't buy anything, they don't buy software, they don't play games except candy, they don't upgrade, they are absolutely not interested in the Apple ecosystem... 
  • Reply 20 of 30
    canukstormcanukstorm Posts: 2,424member
    sog35 said:
    sacto joe said:

    YOUR shit has been going on far too long, and I only remember noticing you a few days ago....
    Is my SHIT causing to lose THOUSANDS of dollars?  For many its costing them TENS OF THOUSANDS and maybe even HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS.  Yes there are people on this board who own hundreds of thousands if not millions of dollars worth of Apple.

    Tim Cooks refusal to refute FLATOUT LIES has cost those people a ridiculous amount of money.  So yes we are SICK of that SHIT.
    You can always vote with your wallet & take your money else where
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