Apple suppliers expect iPhone 6s orders to be cut by 30% this quarter - report

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Comments

  • Reply 81 of 96
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    appex said:
    Apple should cut prices 50% and thus boost sales 20-fold.
    And cut profits by 20... Yeah that's the way to go.
  • Reply 82 of 96
    What exactly do you know that you want Tim Cook to say? Doesn't that then set a precedent that he has to respond every time we get supply chain noise rumors otherwise people will assume the rumors are accurate? Cook has said on more than one occasion that supply chain noise isn't reliable. I'm not sure what more he can do. Do you think there are people not buying Apple products because of these rumors or because the stock has been in a downward trajectory?
    I am not his speechwriter, so I could not tell him what exactly to say. But it would have to be something that either debunks the rumor and says "not true" or he leaves investors with the possibility that it might it might be true.

    Setting a precedent of responding to significant stock price moves -- not "every time we get noise" -- is within the ambit of any CEO's job description. I except the CEO of every stock I own to damn well take the trouble to do it. I expect nothing different from Apple. And I am guessing that a lot of Apple investors feel the same as I do.
    palomine
  • Reply 83 of 96
    What exactly do you know that you want Tim Cook to say? Doesn't that then set a precedent that he has to respond every time we get supply chain noise rumors otherwise people will assume the rumors are accurate? Cook has said on more than one occasion that supply chain noise isn't reliable. I'm not sure what more he can do. Do you think there are people not buying Apple products because of these rumors or because the stock has been in a downward trajectory?
    I am not his speechwriter, so I could not tell him what exactly to say. But it would have to be something that either debunks the rumor and says "not true" or he leaves investors with the possibility that it might it might be true.

    Setting a precedent of responding to significant stock price moves -- not "every time we get noise" -- is within the ambit of any CEO's job description. I except the CEO of every stock I own to damn well take the trouble to do it. I expect nothing different from Apple. And I am guessing that a lot of Apple investors feel the same as I do.
    Ok but Cook has done this before. Tim could say ignore the supply chain noise until he was blue in the face and investors would still panic every time there was a rumor about iPhone orders being reduced or an assumed iPhone supplier reporting bad numbers. Look at Disney, Bob Iger goes on CNBC and Bloomberg quite frequently yet the stock is still down 11% over the past month because of analyst worrying about ESPN.
  • Reply 84 of 96
    What exactly do you know that you want Tim Cook to say? Doesn't that then set a precedent that he has to respond every time we get supply chain noise rumors otherwise people will assume the rumors are accurate? Cook has said on more than one occasion that supply chain noise isn't reliable. I'm not sure what more he can do. Do you think there are people not buying Apple products because of these rumors or because the stock has been in a downward trajectory?
    I am not his speechwriter, so I could not tell him what exactly to say. But it would have to be something that either debunks the rumor and says "not true" or he leaves investors with the possibility that it might it might be true.

    Setting a precedent of responding to significant stock price moves -- not "every time we get noise" -- is within the ambit of any CEO's job description. I except the CEO of every stock I own to damn well take the trouble to do it. I expect nothing different from Apple. And I am guessing that a lot of Apple investors feel the same as I do.
    He has a responsibility to long-term investors - he has none in regards to day-traders (IMHO).  As such the fluctuation of stock price should not be an important factor, nothing that would be important enough to give investor updates between the ones that are regular events.   If the stock price goes down, it gives Apple the ability to buy back shares to balance out any that are given out as options to employees -- at a discount (assuming the prognosticators are wrong).

    As a consumer - whether Apple sells 55 million or 65 million iPhones during a quarter - are really not that much of a deal.  If they sell less, stock price goes down, if they sell more - stock price goes up....  All I know right now is that low estimates or high estimates -- Apple is a very profitable company and have more than enough resources to invest in their future - which as a consumer that likes Apple products is all that is important to me....
  • Reply 85 of 96
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member


    The worries about Dis
    I am not his speechwriter, so I could not tell him what exactly to say. But it would have to be something that either debunks the rumor and says "not true" or he leaves investors with the possibility that it might it might be true.

    Setting a precedent of responding to significant stock price moves -- not "every time we get noise" -- is within the ambit of any CEO's job description. I except the CEO of every stock I own to damn well take the trouble to do it. I expect nothing different from Apple. And I am guessing that a lot of Apple investors feel the same as I do.
    Ok but Cook has done this before. Tim could say ignore the supply chain noise until he was blue in the face and investors would still panic every time there was a rumor about iPhone orders being reduced or an assumed iPhone supplier reporting bad numbers. Look at Disney, Bob Iger goes on CNBC and Bloomberg quite frequently yet the stock is still down 11% over the past month because of analyst worrying about ESPN.
    ney come despite them doing BONZO with Star Wars and derivative, meaning the long term prospect for this franchise is trough the roof... Eh, who cares about that.
    palomine
  • Reply 86 of 96
    croprcropr Posts: 1,133member
    sog35 said:
    cropr said:
    For what it is worth, a friend of mine is a sales man in a telecom shop, and he said to me the other day that the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s+ did not sell as good this Xmas as the iPhone 6 and iPhone6+ did last Xmas.   He is not allowed the give exact details but the difference is between 10 and 20%
    Because they are buying the phones directly from Apple with the lease program
    There is no lease program in Belgium.
  • Reply 87 of 96
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    If inventory is piling up wouldn't it make more business sense to discount phones than to cut production and keep price?   Apple will most likely earn $45 - 50 billion by Aug 2016 so what's all this doom and gloom about getting through next few months?  When is the quiet period for the analyst?
    Ha! There's no quiet period for analysts. They're outsiders exercising free speech. As long as they don't engage in blatant securities manipulation, fraud or slander/libel they can basically say whatever they want.
  • Reply 88 of 96
    ac1234 said:
    aeassa said:
    Sure...have you considered that the reports might actually be accurate?
    That is a possibility - of concern for sure.
    No way!  *IF* the reports are accurate and Apple will be falling short of the guidance they provided last quarter, he absolutely should be issuing an advisory!

    I take his silence to mean that everything is still on track and aligned with the guidance they've released.

    But now the reports are starting to say that it's not *THIS* quarter they're concerned with, it's NEXT quarter...

    Anyhow - if this truly is stock manipulation that's responsible for the recent decrease in the stock price, those responsible have now had ample time to reverse their positions and prepare for a surge in the other direction.  They've ran the price down and taken a lot of profit while doing so.  Now they may be about to release the brakes and let it rally to 150 or 160 then cash out and prepare to drag it back down.  They don't benefit from a stable stock price.  They benefit by controlling the direction.  I for one want my money to be in play when they decide it's time to lift the anchor and so I'm buying as much more as I can between now and the earnings announcement.  (I think that's when we'll see the direction change - possibly even 4-5 days prior to the earnings announcement)!
  • Reply 89 of 96
    Does anyone here pay attention to Horace Dediu's analysis over at Asymco?  Here's his chart.  It's impossible for me to see this sky-is-falling, 30% cut scenario when I look at the Asymco work:  
    As I posted elsewhere in response to this scurrilous "report".

    "Classic simpleton speculation. Without knowing December quarter (FQ1/2016) results, it is impossible to forecast how much seasonal decline there will be in iPhones.

    Since March quarter 2012 unit sales have declined QoQ for both the March and June quarter, averaging a 15% drop in the March quarter, and a further 21% decline in the June quarter. Importantly June quarter results have averaged a 36% decline over December quarter results.

    Given that Apple maintains 5 - 7 weeks channel inventory, about half of any quarter's production is for the following quarter's requirements. Nikkei Asian Review's alarmist claim that iPhone production will drop 30% is well within historical declines, and is nothing to get in a twit about. It might actually be good news (if true)."
    SpamSandwich
  • Reply 90 of 96
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member

    Last year Apple sold 78M phones, next quarter 61M, well you know what that makes 22% drop off! Must have been a god damn bad year.... (sic)
    Considering, those 30% cuts would probably show up later in Q2 and even in Q3, 30% pretty much what it was last year. A record year btw.

    That is if we just take this one rumor at face value (which Cooke says we should not).

    So, if they meet guidance, and only fall 30% by Q3, that would be a god damn good year again... Another 50B in the bank...
    edited January 2016 palomine
  • Reply 91 of 96
    bkkcanuck said:
    He has a responsibility to long-term investors - he has none in regards to day-traders (IMHO).  As such the fluctuation of stock price should not be an important factor, nothing that would be important enough to give investor updates between the ones that are regular events.   If the stock price goes down, it gives Apple the ability to buy back shares to balance out any that are given out as options to employees -- at a discount (assuming the prognosticators are wrong).

    As a consumer - whether Apple sells 55 million or 65 million iPhones during a quarter - are really not that much of a deal.  If they sell less, stock price goes down, if they sell more - stock price goes up....  All I know right now is that low estimates or high estimates -- Apple is a very profitable company and have more than enough resources to invest in their future - which as a consumer that likes Apple products is all that is important to me....
    I've been an Apple shareholder (an it's a sizable part of my portfolio) since 2004. I have not sold a single share of AAPL in that time. There are lots of folks here like me. What exactly do you mean by 'long-term'?

    As to investing in their future, they're stuck with $200B in cash abroad. Uselessly burning a hole in their pocket when it could be productively used. Instead, they raise debt against it with the hope that one day they can bring it back at a lower rate. Absolutely nothing is going to happen on that front. As a long term shareholder of Apple, it's getting to the point where I am beginning to think that it might make more long term sense for Apple to pay the damn extra taxes that it owes in the US, and get on with life. 
  • Reply 92 of 96
    Ok but Cook has done this before. Tim could say ignore the supply chain noise until he was blue in the face and investors would still panic every time there was a rumor about iPhone orders being reduced or an assumed iPhone supplier reporting bad numbers. Look at Disney, Bob Iger goes on CNBC and Bloomberg quite frequently yet the stock is still down 11% over the past month because of analyst worrying about ESPN.
    When Cook has done this before in a significant way -- not some silly murmur about supple chain numbers being screwy -- it has had a positive impact. The Iger comparison is silly, since ESPN is indeed tanking. (Unless, of course, you're agreeing that Apple has a similar problem with its supply chain for the iPhone). I've been following it closely since I am a DIS shareholder too. 

    The bottom line is, Apple's IR messaging is bush-league. 
  • Reply 93 of 96
    SpamSandwichSpamSandwich Posts: 33,407member
    I've been an Apple shareholder (an it's a sizable part of my portfolio) since 2004. I have not sold a single share of AAPL in that time. There are lots of folks here like me. What exactly do you mean by 'long-term'?

    As to investing in their future, they're stuck with $200B in cash abroad. Uselessly burning a hole in their pocket when it could be productively used. Instead, they raise debt against it with the hope that one day they can bring it back at a lower rate. Absolutely nothing is going to happen on that front. As a long term shareholder of Apple, it's getting to the point where I am beginning to think that it might make more long term sense for Apple to pay the damn extra taxes that it owes in the US, and get on with life. 
    Really? This is what you think? Apple would be served with massive class-actions if they took that advice. Forget it.
  • Reply 94 of 96
    felix01felix01 Posts: 294member
    horvatic said:

    And there wrong as usual!
    What's the "there" you're talking about,  Heyseus?
  • Reply 95 of 96
    Really? This is what you think? Apple would be served with massive class-actions if they took that advice. Forget it.
    Ah, you're now an expert on "massive class action suits"?

    Care to give me an example, since you seem to be so confident?
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