Where TF is Tim Cook? Nearly 35% of the value of the business has been wiped off (from a 'high' that was not anywhere close to its intrinsic value).....!
Perhaps the supply chain rumors are true, and that's the reason for Apple's reticence? If so, why not just come out and admit it, and just get the bad news out of the way?
Whatever Tim Cook says gets washed away by more FUD in a matter of days, not months, so it ultimately takes a back seat to performance. Should he fight the crazies every day? If the rumors are bogus, there's no sense in arguing continuously against them. Time and facts will win.
Then Cook should hire a staff of 3 people to write press releases disputing these reports.
When the rumors where that China was going to reach doom, Tim Cook did response to the rumors and said everything in China was okay in a letter to CNBC. That stopped the bleeding after the stock tanked to $92.
I mean how hard is it to release a simple press release a couple times a month to counter these ridiculous reports?
If the news media was reporting rumors that McDonalds was serving horse meat do you not think McDonalds would respond? Of course they would. What if these rumors came up every week? McDonalds would respond every week. Its not that hard to do.
A rumor about serving horse meat would hit the mainstream media and has the potential of damaging the performance of McDonald's business (not just their stock) in a material way. They MUST respond. Not so these rumors via-a-via Apple's business. 99.999% of consumers don't follow analyst notes about stock predictions to determine what gadgets they want.
Where TF is Tim Cook? Nearly 35% of the value of the business has been wiped off (from a 'high' that was not anywhere close to its intrinsic value).....!
Perhaps the supply chain rumors are true, and that's the reason for Apple's reticence? If so, why not just come out and admit it, and just get the bad news out of the way?
Isn't Apple in a quiet period right now where they can't comment? We just have to wait for the numbers. I'm in the stock for the long term and we see this panic every January so it's kind of a yawn for me.
The stock is up a pathetic 2% since Sept2012. This is despite increasing revenue and profits by 30% last year.
I believe in Apple the company. I have ZERO faith in Tim Cook.
I won't sell my shares until Cook is fired and I can sell my shares for fair value.
Why do you have such little faith in Tim Cook? What business moves has he made that you think are bad/stupid?
My lack of faith lies in keeping Eddy Cue around. Either he needs more services taken off his plate to focus on what he's good at or get someone more competent.
I still want to know what exactly the analysts think the iPhone 7 will have that will magically erase the D&G. If the 6S is a dud (according to them) what will make the 7 not a dud?
Is the 6S a "dud" because it lacks innovation? I don't think so. There are other factors:
1. China's declining economic growth 2. US currency's strong appreciation 3. Maturation of smartphone market => users not upgrading as frequently
Ladies and gentlemen.. Let me tell you how this all works.
You see, on Weekly basis ..Apple goes around and asks their suppliers to sign a “Disclosure” agreement to make sure that they all "disclose" Apples Plans to the world.
Included in the Disclosure agreement package are the names of every Analysts and reporter , their phone numbers, Emails And an invitation to dinner for the purpose of disclosing !
Apple suppliers are preparing for slower-than-expected sales of the iPhone 6s and 6s Plus in the current March quarter, with orders said to be some 30 percent lower than originally expected, according to Japanese business newspaper Nikkei.
Inventory of the iPhone 6s and iPhone 6s Plus has "piled up at retailers" since they launched in September, the new report claims. As a result, Apple is allegedly scaling back production for the January-to-March quarter.
It's worth noting that Tuesday's rumor comes from Nikkei Asian Review, a part of The Nikkei, which is the world's largest financial newspaper with a daily circulation of over 3 million. Previous reports about slowing iPhone sales were attributed to supply chain rumors, Apple partners, and Wall Street speculation.
It was said that Apple had previously indicated to suppliers that it expected iPhone sales to follow their usual seasonal trends in the March quarter. Tuesday's report suggested that Apple may have over-produced the iPhone 6s series in the December quarter, leaving excess inventory in the channel to start calendar 2016.
The report will almost certainly fuel concerns on Wall Street that the iPhone 6s series won't be able to continue the iPhone's upward growth trajectory from year to year. Speculation about "peak iPhone" sales has been attributed to recent struggles for AAPL stock.
Wall Street analysts have largely stood by Apple as a no-brainer long-term investment. But worries that iPhone sales could actually decline year over year in the coming quarters have led a number of research firms to cut their estimates in recent weeks, including FBR & Co., RBC Capital Markets, J.P. Morgan, and Morgan Stanley.
Investors will likely have a better indication of how the iPhone 6s series is performing when Apple announces the results of its just-concluded December quarter on Jan. 26. The company had projected revenue between $75.5 billion and $77.5 billion, with gross margins between 39 and 40 percent.
Driven by the launch of the iPhone 6s lineup and the holiday shopping season, market watchers generally expect that Apple set a new quarterly record for iPhone sales in the December frame. Their concerns instead extend to the March and June quarters, as some customers may wait for an anticipated "iPhone 7" lineup.
Even if Apple's profits DROPPED by 75% they would still make more profit than Google+Netflix
Google is actually worth more than Apple now. Apple enterprise value is 431 billion vs Google at 444 billion. So backing out and netting cash vs debt gives you the value of the underlying business (enterprise value) and Google's underlying business is now perceived to be more valuables than Apple's by Mr. Market.
Those are the fact.
Tim is a great operator and good for the company stability, but the law of large numbers is hard to overcome. The most disappointing thing is to watch Netflix create $40 billion of value out of thin air the last few years, watch Amazon create a $150 billion business (AWS) under the nose of the markets, watch Google re-invent itself and turn the purchase of youtube for example into a homerun. All sorts of markets and opportunities Apples could have used its massive war chest of cash to enter and dominate but chose not to. Apple should be what Netflix and youtube are in video. It should have expanded its consumer cloud business to the enterprise sooner. Yes, its a big company, but its missed out on a number of big opportunities in recent years despite having the resources to attack them. Who knows, maybe they are doing something bold internally, but its really, really hard to argue anything bold has been done in years externally, but again, thats who Cook is.....he's not Steve Jobs looking for moonshots. Get used to it.
You are far, far too hard on Tim Cook...... As an investor, you need to decide whether you believe in the company & its management to deliver you value over the long-term.
As an INVESTOR - how do you respond to the criticism that Cook / Apple have wasted $100,000,000,000+ on share buybacks and have a shareholder ROI of only 2% dividend yet are sitting on $200,000,000,000 in cash ?????????
Well, I don't own Apple stock, but here's what I would say...
Apple started to get very aggressive on the buyback, IIRC, when the stock was in the toilet before the explosive iPhone 6/6 Plus cycle. By retiring those shares when the stock price was depressed, Apple was able to make very good use of its excess cash to deliver an EPS boost to shareholders.
With both dividends and buybacks, a company has to be careful to make sure they're sustainable. Apple seems to be plowing the majority of the cash that they generate into capital returns, which is the right thing to do. They also seem to be keeping a very large war-chest on hand "just in case."
IMO, there's very little to criticize about Apple's capital return program.
I still want to know what exactly the analysts think the iPhone 7 will have that will magically erase the D&G. If the 6S is a dud (according to them) what will make the 7 not a dud?
Is the 6S a "dud" because it lacks innovation? I don't think so. There are other factors:
1. China's declining economic growth 2. US currency's strong appreciation 3. Maturation of smartphone market => users not upgrading as frequently
If inventory is piling up wouldn't it make more business sense to discount phones than to cut production and keep price? Apple will most likely earn $45 - 50 billion by Aug 2016 so what's all this doom and gloom about getting through next few months? When is the quiet period for the analyst?
As an INVESTOR - how do you respond to the criticism that Cook / Apple have wasted $100,000,000,000+ on share buybacks and have a shareholder ROI of only 2% dividend yet are sitting on $200,000,000,000 in cash ?????????
Well, I don't own Apple stock, but here's what I would say...
Apple started to get very aggressive on the buyback, IIRC, when the stock was in the toilet before the explosive iPhone 6/6 Plus cycle. By retiring those shares when the stock price was depressed, Apple was able to make very good use of its excess cash to deliver an EPS boost to shareholders.
With both dividends and buybacks, a company has to be careful to make sure they're sustainable. Apple seems to be plowing the majority of the cash that they generate into capital returns, which is the right thing to do. They also seem to be keeping a very large war-chest on hand "just in case."
IMO, there's very little to criticize about Apple's capital return program.
There was NO EPS boost to shareholders - look at the poor stock performance since it began - the stock is down and has been a dog for 3+ years. Buybacks are NOT a ROI to shareholders - it is simply giving back the capital - that is why they call it a capital return program. The capital return program has done nothing for the long term shareholders.
This is what all the "heat" is about and the criticism of the CEO and CFO and Board. The increase in EPS propelling stock price is a theory that does not have a very good track record and probably not sustainable. We stockholders invested our money in AAPL and trusted them to put it to work and give us great returns. The stock has not performed well at all and the dividend is a paltry 2% a year - an insult.
Isn't Apple in a quiet period right now where they can't comment? We just have to wait for the numbers. I'm in the stock for the long term and we see this panic every January so it's kind of a yawn for me.
In the past decade, AAPL has gone up during the first week of January about as often as it has gone down. In other words, there is no "panic" associated with "every January."
Second, the pre-earnings "quiet period" is a bit of made-up nonsense born out of excessive cover-your-ass caution -- something that Apple is prone to, and is the very basis for the criticism here. There is absolutely nothing in the SEC regulations that require it. What is more, the whole issue has become utterly irrelevant with Reg FD: as long as the information is publicly shared, there's probably no issue.
In any event, a company with the resources of Apple shouldn't be shy about getting important factual information out with a view to make sure that FUD is not destroying value for its shareholders: at a minimum, it should be willing to take on the regulators, and get out there with factual information; then, if someone complains, take it head on by taking it to a court of law if necessary.
Isn't Apple in a quiet period right now where they can't comment? We just have to wait for the numbers. I'm in the stock for the long term and we see this panic every January so it's kind of a yawn for me.
In the past decade, AAPL has gone up during the first week of January about as often as it has gone down. In other words, there is no "panic" associated with "every January."
Second, the pre-earnings "quiet period" is a bit of made-up nonsense born out of excessive cover-your-ass caution -- something that Apple is prone to, and is the very basis for the criticism here. There is absolutely nothing in the SEC regulations that require it. What is more, the whole issue has become utterly irrelevant with Reg FD: as long as the information is publicly shared, there's probably no issue.
In any event, a company with the resources of Apple shouldn't be shy about getting important factual information out with a view to make sure that FUD is not destroying value for its shareholders: at a minimum, it should be willing to take on the regulators, and get out there with factual information; then, if someone complains, take it head on by taking it to a court of law if necessary.
What exactly do you know that you want Tim Cook to say? Doesn't that then set a precedent that he has to respond every time we get supply chain noise rumors otherwise people will assume the rumors are accurate? Cook has said on more than one occasion that supply chain noise isn't reliable. I'm not sure what more he can do. Do you think there are people not buying Apple products because of these rumors or because the stock has been in a downward trajectory?
Even if Apple's profits DROPPED by 75% they would still make more profit than Google+Netflix
Google is actually worth more than Apple now. Apple enterprise value is 431 billion vs Google at 444 billion. So backing out and netting cash vs debt gives you the value of the underlying business (enterprise value) and Google's underlying business is now perceived to be more valuables than Apple's by Mr. Market.
Those are the fact.
An acquaintance of mine had a company that was once valued at more than the Bank of Montreal in Canada (one of the big 5 banks)..... and now is not worth anything.... Sometimes perception is everything to Mr. Market yet worth nothing.
This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November. And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING. The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started. Yet Cook does nothing.
This is probably the 15th time these supply chain rumors have come out since November. And each time the stock losses $10 billion to $30 billion in value.
Yet Tim Cook says absolutely NOTHING. The stock is down nearly $180 billion since these rumors have started. Yet Cook does nothing.
I thought you had barred yourself already since the AAPL stock didn't reach $150 by the end of 2015.
Keep your promise ~
I do believe the next quarter will be the first time iPhone sales has declined YoY. Not a lot, may be 2 -5%. But since iPhone 6s will likely have higher margin over iPhone 6 the resulted numbers will be the same. ( Actually I really do hope Apple can lower its margin going forward, not lowering selling prices, but margin. Basically giving better value for money )
Wall Street will play this as Apple going into oblivion. Alongside with general bear market condition, this gives roughly 2 months windows for them to drive the price down to roughly touching ~86. This is by the way a ~15% decline, if we expect the market to go down 5-10% over the next two months this is not a lot. ( Of coz Apple will have plenty of money to do share buyback, which complicated things a bit )
March will have Apple Event which will smooths things out a little, along side with WWDC in June and iPhone 7 in September, This basically give Apple an Event every quarter except the last / First quarter of the year as Shopping quarter.
This should be a nice Set up for Apple to get higher then the $130 historical high for end of 2016,
* The Share buyback, from a share holder prospective, hasn't giving me a single dime of positive return. So i do think it is money not put into great use.
I still want to know what exactly the analysts think the iPhone 7 will have that will magically erase the D&G. If the 6S is a dud (according to them) what will make the 7 not a dud?
Is the 6S a "dud" because it lacks innovation? I don't think so. There are other factors:
1. China's declining economic growth 2. US currency's strong appreciation 3. Maturation of smartphone market => users not upgrading as frequently
The US currency's very strong appreciation is the main issue here, not China's declining growth or even cell phone maturation.
Comments
Perhaps the supply chain rumors are true, and that's the reason for Apple's reticence? If so, why not just come out and admit it, and just get the bad news out of the way?
A rumor about serving horse meat would hit the mainstream media and has the potential of damaging the performance of McDonald's business (not just their stock) in a material way. They MUST respond. Not so these rumors via-a-via Apple's business. 99.999% of consumers don't follow analyst notes about stock predictions to determine what gadgets they want.
Is the 6S a "dud" because it lacks innovation? I don't think so. There are other factors:
1. China's declining economic growth
2. US currency's strong appreciation
3. Maturation of smartphone market => users not upgrading as frequently
Those are the fact.
Tim is a great operator and good for the company stability, but the law of large numbers is hard to overcome. The most disappointing thing is to watch Netflix create $40 billion of value out of thin air the last few years, watch Amazon create a $150 billion business (AWS) under the nose of the markets, watch Google re-invent itself and turn the purchase of youtube for example into a homerun. All sorts of markets and opportunities Apples could have used its massive war chest of cash to enter and dominate but chose not to. Apple should be what Netflix and youtube are in video. It should have expanded its consumer cloud business to the enterprise sooner. Yes, its a big company, but its missed out on a number of big opportunities in recent years despite having the resources to attack them. Who knows, maybe they are doing something bold internally, but its really, really hard to argue anything bold has been done in years externally, but again, thats who Cook is.....he's not Steve Jobs looking for moonshots. Get used to it.
Apple started to get very aggressive on the buyback, IIRC, when the stock was in the toilet before the explosive iPhone 6/6 Plus cycle. By retiring those shares when the stock price was depressed, Apple was able to make very good use of its excess cash to deliver an EPS boost to shareholders.
With both dividends and buybacks, a company has to be careful to make sure they're sustainable. Apple seems to be plowing the majority of the cash that they generate into capital returns, which is the right thing to do. They also seem to be keeping a very large war-chest on hand "just in case."
IMO, there's very little to criticize about Apple's capital return program.
This is what all the "heat" is about and the criticism of the CEO and CFO and Board. The increase in EPS propelling stock price is a theory that does not have a very good track record and probably not sustainable. We stockholders invested our money in AAPL and trusted them to put it to work and give us great returns. The stock has not performed well at all and the dividend is a paltry 2% a year - an insult.
Second, the pre-earnings "quiet period" is a bit of made-up nonsense born out of excessive cover-your-ass caution -- something that Apple is prone to, and is the very basis for the criticism here. There is absolutely nothing in the SEC regulations that require it. What is more, the whole issue has become utterly irrelevant with Reg FD: as long as the information is publicly shared, there's probably no issue.
In any event, a company with the resources of Apple shouldn't be shy about getting important factual information out with a view to make sure that FUD is not destroying value for its shareholders: at a minimum, it should be willing to take on the regulators, and get out there with factual information; then, if someone complains, take it head on by taking it to a court of law if necessary.
Wall Street will play this as Apple going into oblivion. Alongside with general bear market condition, this gives roughly 2 months windows for them to drive the price down to roughly touching ~86. This is by the way a ~15% decline, if we expect the market to go down 5-10% over the next two months this is not a lot.
( Of coz Apple will have plenty of money to do share buyback, which complicated things a bit )
March will have Apple Event which will smooths things out a little, along side with WWDC in June and iPhone 7 in September, This basically give Apple an Event every quarter except the last / First quarter of the year as Shopping quarter.
This should be a nice Set up for Apple to get higher then the $130 historical high for end of 2016,
* The Share buyback, from a share holder prospective, hasn't giving me a single dime of positive return. So i do think it is money not put into great use.
The US currency's very strong appreciation is the main issue here, not China's declining growth or even cell phone maturation.