If you dig into this report details you find this, " While the data is worldwide, the majority of Fiksu's clients focus on user acquisition in the US and Europe, so the Asia Pacific region may be underrepresented. "
I believe that Apple is ahead of the curve (as usual). China has some systemic issues that have been brewing for some time and Apple sees that that market is cooling off dramatically - hence the reduction in supply chain inventory. I also believe that Apple may provide some surprises in 2016 in terms of product announcements and timing, which could also lead to changes in supply chain inventory.
I believe the supply chain inventory reports are real, but I also believe that they will have an immaterial effect on Apple's sales/profit margins. Between Apple's stock repurchase program, a very robust and successful holiday sales period (by all accounts Apple will set new records), I believe now is a buying opportunity for Apple sock and I'm putting my wallet where my mouth is.
Why do you think that? It's obvious you don't understand Apple of the people who buy Apple products. Sure, everyone would like prices to go down on everything but the majority of Apple buyers understand that they're getting value for their money. The majority of Android phones are either given away or sold very cheaply because they are cheap, contrary to what some Android phone buyers say. There will be several new generations of iPhone buyers before the next type of product is introduced. Also, what's the problem with the amount of revenue they're making right now? The majority of mobile device manufacturers and resellers are making next to nothing. Apple is the only company that makes any appreciable profit. The problem with AAPL is that there's too much manipulation going on. It's like casinos fixing every game. The house always wins and the Stock Market is the house. Apple the company is doing great and I bet really couldn't care less about the stock market.
Apple did drop prices on the iPod line eventually. They introduced cheaper versions. Apple will need to do the same with the iPhone. But they will make up the difference with selling services and more unit sales.
What's wrong with Apple's current revenue? Nothing. As long as you are satisfied with a PE of 8. That's what companies with flat revenue are valued at. That gives you a stock price of about $85. Would you be satisified with that? Bottom line is Apple needs to grow revenue or else the stock will drop another 15-20%.
Is it OK with you if I wait for the quarterly report before I admit to the end of iPhone growth? Analysts read these tea leaves every year, and yeah, like a broken clock they'll no doubt be accurate some time in the future. But this time? I'll wait to hear it from the horse's mouth. Too many unethical manipulators, as described in the Slingshot Theory of AAPL manipulation: http://fortune.com/2012/10/08/meet-one-of-the-guys-tugging-on-the-apple-slingshot/
I'm not saying you're an unethical manipulator, but you don't have any significant history in AI and you're encouraging us to sell. If you're not a manipulator, at the very least your behavior is consistent with being one.
Wall Street works overtime to get (deadbeat*) stockholders to panic and dump long term holdings.
Can't gamble in the Casino without convincing the mark to bring his life savings.
*Deadbeat
A "deadbeat" is the unflattering term sometimes used in the credit card industry to describe consumers who pay off their balances every month, using the lenders' money but paying no interest on it. The more-polite, official term is "transactor." Since the recession's end, deadbeats -- or transactors -- have been on the rise, since more consumers see the wisdom of using credit cards as a tool of convenience, not an instrument of debt.
I'm assuming there is a similar term for stockholders sitting on their long term holdings, rather than playing in the Casino.
Thanks for the vocabulary lesson. I had no idea I was a "deadbeat" in the eyes of the credit card industry but now I understand. I've also been a whatever-it-is-for-us-buy-and-hold types with APPL and it's worked out well. I don't actually know of johnjohnstone is a hustler/scam artist/manipulator, but he sure looks like one.
Why do you think that? It's obvious you don't understand Apple of the people who buy Apple products. Sure, everyone would like prices to go down on everything but the majority of Apple buyers understand that they're getting value for their money. The majority of Android phones are either given away or sold very cheaply because they are cheap, contrary to what some Android phone buyers say. There will be several new generations of iPhone buyers before the next type of product is introduced. Also, what's the problem with the amount of revenue they're making right now? The majority of mobile device manufacturers and resellers are making next to nothing. Apple is the only company that makes any appreciable profit. The problem with AAPL is that there's too much manipulation going on. It's like casinos fixing every game. The house always wins and the Stock Market is the house. Apple the company is doing great and I bet really couldn't care less about the stock market.
Apple did drop prices on the iPod line eventually. They introduced cheaper versions. Apple will need to do the same with the iPhone. But they will make up the difference with selling services and more unit sales.
What's wrong with Apple's current revenue? Nothing. As long as you are satisfied with a PE of 8. That's what companies with flat revenue are valued at. That gives you a stock price of about $85. Would you be satisified with that? Bottom line is Apple needs to grow revenue or else the stock will drop another 15-20%.
They did that fairly quickly with the iPod though, right? It started at $400 (prob. $500 today?) increased the next year to $500 as well as keeping a $400 model and then covered their asses quite rapidly in the low end. Totally dominating the competition. That was textbook.
However they could do that since a shuffle wasn't a patch on a full iPod.
At the moment Apple doesn't really do iPhone models. Yes, the screen sizes since last year. Two models. Before that, one.
Then sell last year's model and have different configurations and that's it.
I hope that they have plans for cheaper models but we're holding off until the top end saturated.
Those of you convinced this is manipulation are in a good position to make money from buying options.
Is anyone here convinced it's manipulation? I'm not. To buy options I'd have to be convinced, AND I'd have to be a speculator, not an investor. I won't speak for anyone else, but I'm not even close to being tempted to buy options. I'm a long-term investor.
Interesting part of this graph is that about 35% of iPhone users have not upgraded to iPhone6 or 6s.
What are they waiting for?
Are over 100,000,000 current iPhone users waiting for a 4 inch phone? I don't get it.
What do you think happens to all those iPhones sold to Gazelle, on eBay, Craigslist and such?
good point. Forgot about that. If that's the case I wish Tim Cook would announce total iPhone install base each quarter. That way even if the iPhone sales for a specific quarter may be down the install base is steadily climbing.
Also many people like me pass on old iphones to family members. I even have family members still using iPhone3GS! It seems each time I upgrade I grow the iOS platform. However, I did decide against getting myself a 5 or a 5S as they didn't bring anything I felt that I needed and they felt too long and thin for me. I went from a 4S to a 6+ now that was a worthy upgrade for the screen size given my eyes.
Interesting part of this graph is that about 35% of iPhone users have not upgraded to iPhone6 or 6s.
What are they waiting for?
Are over 100,000,000 current iPhone users waiting for a 4 inch phone? I don't get it.
This is my question and why I raise an eyebrow every time some Wall Street clown starts talking up the 7. If there's still a large percent of the install base that is not on a 6 series, why? Do they not want a larger phone even though nearly everyone on the planet said Apple was doomed because it wasn't selling phones with bigger screens? Is it because iPhones are too expensive? Except we're not seeing huge growth in Android land and where we are it seems the share is coming from Samsung and HTC not Apple. Are they waiting for a different design? What is driving this (assuming it's accurate)?
Even that clown Jim Cramer (and his cronies) admitted on national TV that he gamed AAPL by putting out complete BS rumors to cash in on those quarters he was short.
Honestly, the SEC should really be putting some resources into investigating market manipulations being done right under their noses by Wall Street.
Slowing 6s sales won't show up till March and June quarter. Dec quarter iPhone 6s sales should match or beat 6 sales. All the supply chain reports are for phones sold in 2016.
I think its time for people just to admit that iPhone units can't go up forever. We are at or very near peak iPhone. At max we have another 3-5 year of iPhone growth, unless Apple sells phones for a much lower price point. So Apple really has only 2 choices if it wants to keep growing revenue. Either they need to lower the price of iPhones or they need to sell more services or do both.
Comical! That is a year's old drumbeat that has been proven wrong over and over again. Do your homework before you post such baseless statements. When you look at Apple's low overall market share, replacement cycles, conversion rates of Android users to iPhones, and the decline of Samsung at the same time Apple has seen significant growth, there is clearly significant room for Apple to keep growing. Sure, rate of growth might slow, but that does not mean Apple can't or won't continue to grow. You also have failed to take into account the impact of Apple's entire ecosystem on retention and future growth.
I think its time for people just to admit that iPhone units can't go up forever. We are at or very near peak iPhone. At max we have another 3-5 year of iPhone growth
So you're saying we are two-thirds of the way to "peak iPhone." Apple better come up with another killer product by 2021 at the latest, or we're DOOOOOOOMED. Yeah, that seems like a good reason to panic now ... or COULD IT BE that this is all market manipulation? Nah, couldn't be.
Which happened last year, and the year before that, and the year before that.. They always slow down this time of year. iPhone sales have been a seasonal product when it comes to volume for years now. The only real reason for the stock dropping this much is China and it's multiple market crashes this week has made WS very very skittish. Nearly everything in the market is down AT LEAST 5% right now for 2016.
Yes iPhone sales slow down from Dec to March quarter. But these supply chain reports are comparing last years March quarter to this year.
Yes all the stocks are down about 5% this week. But Apple was also down 22% the last few months in 2016. If Apple was still at $130 and it dropped to $123 that would not be too bad. But it has been under performing the entire market since Feb2015.
Once again, you are clueless. Apple is now, and has been the most manipulated stock on the market based on the ease with which it can be manipulated by the slightest rumor due to their intense secrecy. Their stock price is ridden up and down, just as it is driven up and down, by large institutional investors and hedge funds, as they create a continuous cycle of profit taking.
What do you think happens to all those iPhones sold to Gazelle, on eBay, Craigslist and such?
good point. Forgot about that. If that's the case I wish Tim Cook would announce total iPhone install base each quarter. That way even if the iPhone sales for a specific quarter may be down the install base is steadily climbing.
Wall Street won't care about that until Apple shows new revenue streams that are effectively monetizing this large install base. All rumors suggest a streaming TV service is off the table. Apple has been pretty quite re: Apple Music, we don't really have a feel for what percent of the install base is subscribing. And Apple Pay doesn't seem to be designed as a money maker in and of itself. So outside of App Store sales what good is this large install base right now?
I've said this before and I'll say it again, one way I think Apple could calm investor fears is if Cook hired an SVP to run Apple's cloud business and oversee maps and Siri. Task this person with really stepping up Apple's game in machine learning and search. Then make Eddy Cue 100% focused on Apple's content business and expanding Apple Pay. Let the design and engineering teams focus on hardware and software and new products and have Eddy be 100% dedicated to monetizing the install base and creating recurring revenue streams. I think the stock would be in a different place right now if Apple Music was thriving and the probability of a streaming TV service was high. So in theory you'd have under Cook:
Jony, Craig, Dan and Johny focused on existing products + new hardware and software; Phil overseeing product marketing and improving the App Store; Eddy focused on iTunes, Music, TV, Pay and monetizing the install base Angela expanding Apple's retail footprint, especially in China; and then support staff like operations, finance and legal
So you're saying we are two-thirds of the way to "peak iPhone." Apple better come up with another killer product by 2021 at the latest, or we're DOOOOOOOMED. Yeah, that seems like a good reason to panic now ... or COULD IT BE that this is all market manipulation? Nah, couldn't be.
In 2014 Tim Cook said iPhone would be Apple's main revenue driver for the next 5 years.
Comments
I believe that Apple is ahead of the curve (as usual). China has some systemic issues that have been brewing for some time and Apple sees that that market is cooling off dramatically - hence the reduction in supply chain inventory. I also believe that Apple may provide some surprises in 2016 in terms of product announcements and timing, which could also lead to changes in supply chain inventory.
I believe the supply chain inventory reports are real, but I also believe that they will have an immaterial effect on Apple's sales/profit margins. Between Apple's stock repurchase program, a very robust and successful holiday sales period (by all accounts Apple will set new records), I believe now is a buying opportunity for Apple sock and I'm putting my wallet where my mouth is.
What's wrong with Apple's current revenue? Nothing. As long as you are satisfied with a PE of 8. That's what companies with flat revenue are valued at. That gives you a stock price of about $85. Would you be satisified with that? Bottom line is Apple needs to grow revenue or else the stock will drop another 15-20%.
However they could do that since a shuffle wasn't a patch on a full iPod.
At the moment Apple doesn't really do iPhone models. Yes, the screen sizes since last year. Two models. Before that, one.
Then sell last year's model and have different configurations and that's it.
I hope that they have plans for cheaper models but we're holding off until the top end saturated.
Once again, you are clueless. Apple is now, and has been the most manipulated stock on the market based on the ease with which it can be manipulated by the slightest rumor due to their intense secrecy. Their stock price is ridden up and down, just as it is driven up and down, by large institutional investors and hedge funds, as they create a continuous cycle of profit taking.
I've said this before and I'll say it again, one way I think Apple could calm investor fears is if Cook hired an SVP to run Apple's cloud business and oversee maps and Siri. Task this person with really stepping up Apple's game in machine learning and search. Then make Eddy Cue 100% focused on Apple's content business and expanding Apple Pay. Let the design and engineering teams focus on hardware and software and new products and have Eddy be 100% dedicated to monetizing the install base and creating recurring revenue streams. I think the stock would be in a different place right now if Apple Music was thriving and the probability of a streaming TV service was high. So in theory you'd have under Cook:
Jony, Craig, Dan and Johny focused on existing products + new hardware and software;
Phil overseeing product marketing and improving the App Store;
Eddy focused on iTunes, Music, TV, Pay and monetizing the install base
Angela expanding Apple's retail footprint, especially in China;
and then support staff like operations, finance and legal
just my 2¢