good point. Forgot about that. If that's the case I wish Tim Cook would announce total iPhone install base each quarter. That way even if the iPhone sales for a specific quarter may be down the install base is steadily climbing.
Wall Street won't care about that until Apple shows new revenue streams that are effectively monetizing this large install base. All rumors suggest a streaming TV service is off the table. Apple has been pretty quite re: Apple Music, we don't really have a feel for what percent of the install base is subscribing. And Apple Pay doesn't seem to be designed as a money maker in and of itself. So outside of App Store sales what good is this large install base right now?
I've said this before and I'll say it again, one way I think Apple could calm investor fears is if Cook hired an SVP to run Apple's cloud business and oversee maps and Siri. Task this person with really stepping up Apple's game in machine learning and search. Then make Eddy Cue 100% focused on Apple's content business and expanding Apple Pay. Let the design and engineering teams focus on hardware and software and new products and have Eddy be 100% dedicated to monetizing the install base and creating recurring revenue streams. I think the stock would be in a different place right now if Apple Music was thriving and the probability of a streaming TV service was high. So in theory you'd have under Cook:
Jony, Craig, Dan and Johny focused on existing products + new hardware and software; Phil overseeing product marketing and improving the App Store; Eddy focused on iTunes, Music, TV, Pay and monetizing the install base Angela expanding Apple's retail footprint, especially in China; and then support staff like operations, finance and legal
just my 2¢
I like these ideas.
IMO, Apple has not been aggressive enough in services. They really need to bring in some new hires to head up new services or acquire some companies.
Slowing 6s sales won't show up till March and June quarter. Dec quarter iPhone 6s sales should match or beat 6 sales. All the supply chain reports are for phones sold in 2016.
I think its time for people just to admit that iPhone units can't go up forever. We are at or very near peak iPhone. At max we have another 3-5 year of iPhone growth, unless Apple sells phones for a much lower price point. So Apple really has only 2 choices if it wants to keep growing revenue. Either they need to lower the price of iPhones or they need to sell more services or do both.
It never occurred to you that the supply chain reports may be indicative of problems with other smartphone vendors, rather than Apple? It was Samsung that reported tough times ahead, wasn't it? If we take history as our guide here, the people 'in the know' about 'supply chains' are more likely wrong than right.
It never occurred to you that the supply chain reports may be indicative of problems with other smartphone vendors, rather than Apple? It was Samsung that reported tough times ahead, wasn't it? If we take history as our guide here, the people 'in the know' about 'supply chains' are more likely wrong than right.
Samsung may be selling less units but other Android makers are taking up the slack.
I would believe it if it was just one supplier that is reporting weak revenue for March quarter. But there have been half a dozen that have already warned about weak outlook. Why else would Tim Cook not say anything? Its probably because its true. I expect iPhone units to decline YoY for the March quarter.
Stock is now at $96. It has lost over $215,000,000,000 in value in 6 months. Google will probably be worth more than Apple in a few days with 1/3 the profit and 1/4 the revenue.
The sooner people realize we will see $80 the better.
Wall Street won't care about that until Apple shows new revenue streams that are effectively monetizing this large install base. All rumors suggest a streaming TV service is off the table. Apple has been pretty quite re: Apple Music, we don't really have a feel for what percent of the install base is subscribing. And Apple Pay doesn't seem to be designed as a money maker in and of itself. So outside of App Store sales what good is this large install base right now?
I've said this before and I'll say it again, one way I think Apple could calm investor fears is if Cook hired an SVP to run Apple's cloud business and oversee maps and Siri. Task this person with really stepping up Apple's game in machine learning and search. Then make Eddy Cue 100% focused on Apple's content business and expanding Apple Pay. Let the design and engineering teams focus on hardware and software and new products and have Eddy be 100% dedicated to monetizing the install base and creating recurring revenue streams. I think the stock would be in a different place right now if Apple Music was thriving and the probability of a streaming TV service was high. So in theory you'd have under Cook:
Jony, Craig, Dan and Johny focused on existing products + new hardware and software; Phil overseeing product marketing and improving the App Store; Eddy focused on iTunes, Music, TV, Pay and monetizing the install base Angela expanding Apple's retail footprint, especially in China; and then support staff like operations, finance and legal
just my 2¢
I like these ideas.
IMO, Apple has not been aggressive enough in services. They really need to bring in some new hires to head up new services or acquire some companies.
For me paramount is getting Eddy Cue out software as much as possible. Clearly Apple needs to be doing more to monetize it's install base and from everything I've read about Eddy his forte seems to be doing deals so I think having him focus 100% in content and Pay is the way to go. I see little to no evidence that he's the right person to improve Apple's clouds services or get Apple deeper into machine learning and search.
Isn’t it possible both reports are correct? If Apple is indeed launching a new iPhone 6c this winter, it would reflect an extremely prudent company to be cutting slightly down the supply chain of the regular versions in anticipation of 6c demand.
Yes! It's the difference between a leading indicator and a trailing indicator. This graph is a trailing indicator, and the supply chain stuff won't be realized for months. I bet the Jan report is actually good, but the outlook for next quarter will be weaker.
That pretty much nails it. We see $80 very soon. Every single Apple supplier is reporting weak Dec and March results.
I wonder at what point we hear louder complaints about Tim Cook's leadership like we did back in 2013. Yeah there's never shortage of analyst blabbing on sbout what Apple needs to do but in 2013 there were actual rumors about whether the board was looking to replace Cook. They were most likely BS but they were out there. Having over $200B in market cap wiped away in 6 months is something Tim will have to answer for even if Apple the company and AAPL the stock are alternate universes in some ways. I have a feeling this earnings call is going to be brutal.
It never occurred to you that the supply chain reports may be indicative of problems with other smartphone vendors, rather than Apple? It was Samsung that reported tough times ahead, wasn't it? If we take history as our guide here, the people 'in the know' about 'supply chains' are more likely wrong than right.
Samsung may be selling less units but other Android makers are taking up the slack.
I would believe it if it was just one supplier that is reporting weak revenue for March quarter. But there have been half a dozen that have already warned about weak outlook. Why else would Tim Cook not say anything? Its probably because its true. I expect iPhone units to decline YoY for the March quarter.
Stock is now at $96. It has lost over $215,000,000,000 in value in 6 months. Google will probably be worth more than Apple in a few days with 1/3 the profit and 1/4 the revenue.
The sooner people realize we will see $80 the better.
I wonder at what point we hear louder complaints about Tim Cook's leadership like we did back in 2013. Yeah there's never shortage of analyst blabbing on sbout what Apple needs to do but in 2013 there were actual rumors about whether the board was looking to replace Cook. They were most likely BS but they were out there. Having over $200B in market cap wiped away in 6 months is something Tim will have to answer for even if Apple the company and AAPL the stock are alternate universes in some ways. I have a feeling this earnings call is going to be brutal.
Tim Cook and Apple really needs to change their strategy with dealing with Wall Street. Growing iPhone units alone is not good enough anymore. Being super top secret is not good enough anymore. You got to give investors something to look forward to. If Cook confirmed they were working on a car I bet the stock would have not been hit so hard.
At this point I'm not 100% sure Tim Cook is the right CEO right now. He was the right CEO to maximize iPhone unit sales with his vast knowledge of the supply chain. But in this point in Apple's history I think its less about pushing out more units but rather growing services. They may need a new CEO who understands how to grow new services and who is an expert in M&A to put that $200 billion in cash to work.
Apple's biggest problem right now is its over reliance on iPhone. Until that is solved they will forever be haunted by these supply check stories. They need to grow more services or acquire companies.
Stock is at $95 right now. Stock has lost about $50,000,000,000 in value just this week.
Why the hell would I ban myself? Only egomaniacs make that kind of bet. Who knows. If I knew 100% for sure Apple would be $80 this year I would not be here. I could buy some puts and make millions.
That pretty much nails it. We see $80 very soon. Every single Apple supplier is reporting weak Dec and March results.
I wonder at what point we hear louder complaints about Tim Cook's leadership like we did back in 2013. Yeah there's never shortage of analyst blabbing on sbout what Apple needs to do but in 2013 there were actual rumors about whether the board was looking to replace Cook. They were most likely BS but they were out there. Having over $200B in market cap wiped away in 6 months is something Tim will have to answer for even if Apple the company and AAPL the stock are alternate universes in some ways. I have a feeling this earnings call is going to be brutal.
The earnings call is always polite. The results will be in line with guidance (no warning) and the real test is the next Q guidance.
That said if the stock market prices that weakness in, as it is doing, and it isn't so bad then we could get a rebound.
Might be be worth getting in this week or next. Buy sogs shares.
I wonder at what point we hear louder complaints about Tim Cook's leadership like we did back in 2013. Yeah there's never shortage of analyst blabbing on sbout what Apple needs to do but in 2013 there were actual rumors about whether the board was looking to replace Cook. They were most likely BS but they were out there. Having over $200B in market cap wiped away in 6 months is something Tim will have to answer for even if Apple the company and AAPL the stock are alternate universes in some ways. I have a feeling this earnings call is going to be brutal.
Tim Cook and Apple really needs to change their strategy with dealing with Wall Street. Growing iPhone units alone is not good enough anymore. Being super top secret is not good enough anymore. You got to give investors something to look forward to. If Cook confirmed they were working on a car I bet the stock would have not been hit so hard.
At this point I'm not 100% sure Tim Cook is the right CEO right now. He was the right CEO to maximize iPhone unit sales with his vast knowledge of the supply chain. But in this point in Apple's history I think its less about pushing out more units but rather growing services. They may need a new CEO who understands how to grow new services and who is an expert in M&A to put that $200 billion in cash to work.
Apple's biggest problem right now is its over reliance on iPhone. Until that is solved they will forever be haunted by these supply check stories. They need to grow more services or acquire companies.
Stock is at $95 right now. Stock has lost about $50,000,000,000 in value just this week.
I go back and forth on Cook. He probably was the right guy to be interim CEO when Steve was sick because that was mainly managing Apple operationally. And maybe he was the only one the other SVPs would report to. But I never thought he was very good at giving the world Apple's vision and when you watch a keynote you get a lot of what and how (Schiller & Ive) but very little why. And because Apple is so secretive everyone is left guessing where it might be going next. What was the point of letting CBS into Apple's design studio when all we saw were a bunch of tables draped in sheets?
That pretty much nails it. We see $80 very soon. Every single Apple supplier is reporting weak Dec and March results.
"Every single Apple supplier"? Seriously? How many suppliers are there? Can you tell us how many there are and how many you follow closely?
Skyworks Avago Qorvo Cirrus Logic Invensense Foxconn - said to have extended holiday time off for workers Dialog Sharp Pegatron
How many more do you need?
Long term I'm still bullish on Apple. They just have too much cash, to loyal of a fanbase, to much talent, to strong an ecosystem to be in the dumps for too long. I see iPhone 7 bring unit growth back. But long term Apple needs to grow services revenue.
I wonder at what point we hear louder complaints about Tim Cook's leadership like we did back in 2013. Yeah there's never shortage of analyst blabbing on sbout what Apple needs to do but in 2013 there were actual rumors about whether the board was looking to replace Cook. They were most likely BS but they were out there. Having over $200B in market cap wiped away in 6 months is something Tim will have to answer for even if Apple the company and AAPL the stock are alternate universes in some ways. I have a feeling this earnings call is going to be brutal.
The earnings call is always polite. The results will be in line with guidance (no warning) and the real test is the next Q guidance.
That said if the stock market prices that weakness in, as it is doing, and it isn't so bad then we could get a rebound.
Might be be worth getting in this week or next. Buy sogs shares.
I'm not buying again for a while. I expect it to be mid 80s before the earnings call. You would think all the bad news would be priced in at that point but if March guidance is weak I suspect an after hours sell off. And at some point the questions around whether buybacks were a good thing will become louder. Eric Jackson, infamous for taking on Yahoo! has been tweeting about that today.
Long term I'm still bullish on Apple. They just have too much cash, to loyal of a fanbase, to much talent, to strong an ecosystem to be in the dumps for too long. I see iPhone 7 bring unit growth back. But long term Apple needs to grow services revenue.
You're on ignore. You are Sog. And even if not, same naive/clueless drivel.
It never occurred to you that the supply chain reports may be indicative of problems with other smartphone vendors, rather than Apple? It was Samsung that reported tough times ahead, wasn't it? If we take history as our guide here, the people 'in the know' about 'supply chains' are more likely wrong than right.
Samsung may be selling less units but other Android makers are taking up the slack.
I would believe it if it was just one supplier that is reporting weak revenue for March quarter. But there have been half a dozen that have already warned about weak outlook. Why else would Tim Cook not say anything? Its probably because its true. I expect iPhone units to decline YoY for the March quarter.
Stock is now at $96. It has lost over $215,000,000,000 in value in 6 months. Google will probably be worth more than Apple in a few days with 1/3 the profit and 1/4 the revenue.
The sooner people realize we will see $80 the better.
Cook has pointed out in the past that it is not very smart to base Apple earnings estimates on supply chain rumours. That is a fact. Why he hasn't said anything yet has more to do with the pointlessness of doing so. There may be 'selective disclosure' rules set by the SEC that may prevent him to say the things you would like to hear now. If the earnings of last quarter are in line or exceed guidance, there is no reason to address the stubborn clowns that will say whatever their supply chain 'checks' indicate. In fact, these clowns are his last worry.
I can't believe the market continues to respond to these rumors, when Apple has said not to trust data points like these over the years. Not to mention, they've always proven completely false, so either financial analysts are manipulating the market to drive Apple share price down or they're just complete idiots. Crazy how so many people are expecting some big drop - like all of a sudden consumers say "gee, I don't like my iPhone, even though I used it more to buy products over the holidays - more than any other phone (not that it counts for anything).".
Its not about holiday sales. Its about sales in March and June quarter. That is where the supply chain is showing a drop in unit sales.
Yes.. Like it has been for many years after holiday peak.... And as Apple approaches introducing the next version
It does not take a genius to know that.. Its data availible to the everyone.
But fear mongering by wallstreet Charlatans.. With bogus sensationalized headlines always works...
Fear is one of the most fundimental instincts humans/animals have developed throughout evolution.
It is fundimental to survival.
And in the wall street jungle the charlatans know it all too well.
Say "boo" and most will drop everything and run... Leaving behind what charlatans want to collect.
we empower those bastards.
A must watch if you want to see how this is openly admited by the insiders....
The 1st minute will tell all.. But watch the whole thing
Comments
IMO, Apple has not been aggressive enough in services. They really need to bring in some new hires to head up new services or acquire some companies.
http://www.streetinsider.com/Guidance/Cirrus+Logic,+Inc.+(CRUS)+Warns+for+Q3/11202989.html
That pretty much nails it. We see $80 very soon. Every single Apple supplier is reporting weak Dec and March results.
If we take history as our guide here, the people 'in the know' about 'supply chains' are more likely wrong than right.
I would believe it if it was just one supplier that is reporting weak revenue for March quarter. But there have been half a dozen that have already warned about weak outlook. Why else would Tim Cook not say anything? Its probably because its true. I expect iPhone units to decline YoY for the March quarter.
Stock is now at $96.
It has lost over $215,000,000,000 in value in 6 months.
Google will probably be worth more than Apple in a few days with 1/3 the profit and 1/4 the revenue.
The sooner people realize we will see $80 the better.
Will you self ban if we don't see $80?
At this point I'm not 100% sure Tim Cook is the right CEO right now. He was the right CEO to maximize iPhone unit sales with his vast knowledge of the supply chain. But in this point in Apple's history I think its less about pushing out more units but rather growing services. They may need a new CEO who understands how to grow new services and who is an expert in M&A to put that $200 billion in cash to work.
Apple's biggest problem right now is its over reliance on iPhone. Until that is solved they will forever be haunted by these supply check stories. They need to grow more services or acquire companies.
Stock is at $95 right now. Stock has lost about $50,000,000,000 in value just this week.
That said if the stock market prices that weakness in, as it is doing, and it isn't so bad then we could get a rebound.
Might be be worth getting in this week or next. Buy sogs shares.
Avago
Qorvo
Cirrus Logic
Invensense
Foxconn - said to have extended holiday time off for workers
Dialog
Sharp
Pegatron
How many more do you need?
Long term I'm still bullish on Apple. They just have too much cash, to loyal of a fanbase, to much talent, to strong an ecosystem to be in the dumps for too long. I see iPhone 7 bring unit growth back. But long term Apple needs to grow services revenue.
And even if not, same naive/clueless drivel.