New 4" iPhone predicted to drive $5.5B in new sales for Apple in 2016
Apple's refreshed 4-inch iPhone is predicted by one analyst to add 10 million units to Apple's total handset sales this year, resulting in an additional $5.5 billion for the company in fiscal 2016.
Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets issued a note to investors this week, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, in which he laid out his forecast for Apple's so-called "iPhone 5se" expected to debut in March. He believes the 4-inch iPhone will sell more than 10 million units, but with some cannibalization of larger models, the net effect will be 10 million additional sales.
His forecast calls for the average selling price of the 4-inch iPhone to be $550, adding 23 cents to Apple's earnings per share, or about 2 percent to its fiscal year 2016 totals.
As to who the "iPhone 5se" is for, Daryanani believes it could drive upgrades for users on three-plus-year old iPhone models, specifically those still running the iPhone 5c or iPhone 5s. He sees the new 4-inch model being a boon particularly in markets like India, a country that was specifically cited by Apple during its most recent quarterly earnings call.
In fact, just this week, Apple discontinued both the iPhone 4s and iPhone 5c from its lineup in India, potentially setting the stage for a new 4-inch iPhone to shake things up.
Production of the next-generation 4-inch iPhone is supposedly underway ahead of an anticipated March 15 media event, at which Apple is also rumored to unveil a third-generation iPad Air. Both products are rumored to launch just three days later, on Friday, March 18.
Apple's new 4-inch iPhone is expected to include a metal-backed, curved-edge design similar to the current iPhone 6s with refreshed internals like an A8 or A9 processor and NFC support for Apple Pay. Rumored names include "iPhone 6c" and "iPhone 5se."
In all, Daryanani said he believes the refreshed 4-inch iPhone will have a "modest positive impact" on Apple's bottom line. RBC has maintained its "outperform" rating for shares of AAPL with a price target of $130.
Amit Daryanani of RBC Capital Markets issued a note to investors this week, a copy of which was provided to AppleInsider, in which he laid out his forecast for Apple's so-called "iPhone 5se" expected to debut in March. He believes the 4-inch iPhone will sell more than 10 million units, but with some cannibalization of larger models, the net effect will be 10 million additional sales.
His forecast calls for the average selling price of the 4-inch iPhone to be $550, adding 23 cents to Apple's earnings per share, or about 2 percent to its fiscal year 2016 totals.
As to who the "iPhone 5se" is for, Daryanani believes it could drive upgrades for users on three-plus-year old iPhone models, specifically those still running the iPhone 5c or iPhone 5s. He sees the new 4-inch model being a boon particularly in markets like India, a country that was specifically cited by Apple during its most recent quarterly earnings call.
In fact, just this week, Apple discontinued both the iPhone 4s and iPhone 5c from its lineup in India, potentially setting the stage for a new 4-inch iPhone to shake things up.
Production of the next-generation 4-inch iPhone is supposedly underway ahead of an anticipated March 15 media event, at which Apple is also rumored to unveil a third-generation iPad Air. Both products are rumored to launch just three days later, on Friday, March 18.
Apple's new 4-inch iPhone is expected to include a metal-backed, curved-edge design similar to the current iPhone 6s with refreshed internals like an A8 or A9 processor and NFC support for Apple Pay. Rumored names include "iPhone 6c" and "iPhone 5se."
In all, Daryanani said he believes the refreshed 4-inch iPhone will have a "modest positive impact" on Apple's bottom line. RBC has maintained its "outperform" rating for shares of AAPL with a price target of $130.
Comments
My money's on there being two models, budget and at least mid-tier if not premium. One to replace the budget phone in developing markets and one to take 4" enthusiasts money who can afford to pay much more.
still seems like a pretty lame event if all they introduce is a 4" niche market iPhone, and a poorly selling iPad, with a MacBook processor speed bump, and some new watch bands. If there's an actual 2nd gen watch then at least all the rest will have something to support -- like a "Spring forward" event.
This iPhone could sell 10 million in it's first month of release.
The fact those people waited for this phone means maybe they would not have bought another Iphone; that's what Apple wants to prevent.
“There will be a new 4" screen iPhone” falls under the former. All the name stuff — 6C of 5SE or 99++WTFBBQ, what kind of CPU, and whether it has 3D Touch or not — are thus far speculation.
Given that Apple typically designs devices to be on the market for 2-3 years, I think the notion that it would be called a 5x, or have an eighteen-month-old CPU, are silly. Remember how surprised some folks were by the specs on the latest iPod Touch? Long game
(I also think it’s unlikely that Apple wants to sell phones that lack 3D Touch in 2018, but the persistent rumors of supply change shortages might have some credibility.
(not trolling, genuinely curious)
So they've already gotten their 3 years out of the 5s, all they have to do is spec bump it, and keep selling it in the developed world for a 4th year, then they likely get 5th year in developing markets. In the meantime, assuming Apple is planning on keeping their current numbering system for a few more generations, what better way to distinguish their phone lines than with numbers: 5, 6 & 7. Every year when the new phone is introduced, they all bump down a number.
As for 3D-touch, Apple did the exact same thing with Touch ID when they introduced the 5c without it. And they continued to sell the 5S for two years without Pay, when they otherwise just updated the rapidly declining iPod Touch line with the latest specs. Besides, developers don't really even know what to do with 3D-Touch yet, and it likely won't fit into he 4" form factor just yet, in much the same way there was no rush to spend the money and add Pay to the 5S since it wasn't and still isn't a very wide spread service. This year is likely to turn the tide on that however, and Apple doesn't want to sell any phone without it and that's why we're seeing the 5S update now.
I and several people I know desire it, but we now have recent iPhone 5 models of that size.
Last summer I bought an iPhone5c on clear out, love it except it needs more than it's 16gb of memory.
I knew that it would be a bit low on memory, 32gb is what I desired but it is not available.
One memory problem is the camera increase in resolution takes lots more memory.
I don't need a resolution higher than that of the iPhone4, for casual pictures.
For quality pictures my travel pocket $100 digital camera is much better overall than the iPhone.
Here in CDA we have a big problem with iPhone prices.
Apple uses the current approx 30% exchange rate to price their iPhone 6,
but the iPhone 6 is made in countries where the exchange rate has only changed in relation to CDA by about 10%.
The base (too little memory for me) iPhone 6s 16gb today is C$899 up 38% from the US$649.
Based on the countries where it is made it should only be up 10% in CDA, to about C$714.
Not surprising that Apple is still making very good money on the iPhone,
about 60% of sales are outside of the USA and subject to excess pricing.
I'll soon be jumping onto the iPhone upgrade program.. looking forward to seeing what Apple comes up with!