Apple's iPhone shipments 'likely' to fall below 200M in 2016, insider says

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  • Reply 21 of 47
    Rayz2016Rayz2016 Posts: 4,556member
    At least this didn't have the stupid "breaking" tag. But honestly I wish rumor sites would quit treating Ming-Chi Kuo's research notes as if they came from Tim Cook. It's just guessing based on supply chain noise and tumors.
    rumours
  • Reply 22 of 47
    rogifan_newrogifan_new Posts: 3,823member
    Because Apple decided to give the bigger iPhone it's own marketing name (and it has the better camera tech) I think it should be marketed as a separate product. Currently on Apple's website they're not doing that. The site references one powerful phone.


    image
    cali
  • Reply 23 of 47
    josujosu Posts: 217member
    "Kuo has a proven track record in predicting Apple's future product plans."

    Yes, and is there where he is good, not in sales forecasts, in slowing down in orders is, but in sales no.

    "Most recently, he was first to peg the $400 to $500 pricing range and all of the hardware specifications for Apple's newly launched iPhone SE, which he expects will see 12 million shipments in 2016."

    To be fair the 12 million sales forecast was based on the assumption that the 5s will be kept in production and in sale worldwide at a US price of $250.


    edited April 2016
  • Reply 24 of 47
    cnocbuicnocbui Posts: 3,613member
    proline said:
    I think he's off base this time. Nobody has seen what a "dual camera system" can do, but adding this or that to the spec sheet is not what drives iPhone demand. Furthermore, the iPhone 7 is 5 months away, which means competitors won't beat it by much- I don't know many people who would switch to Lenovo just because the latter's camera was slightly better for a few weeks. As for the SE, it's a good phone at a good price point- it obviously isn't going to outsell the flagship iPhone 7s, but that doesn't mean there won't be an uptick in sales from it.
    LG G5 has a dual camera.



  • Reply 25 of 47
    How does having a "proven" track record of future Apple products (because you have deep throats in the supply chain) equal having accurate forecasts of how many iPhones will be sold? There are so many more variables to consider.
  • Reply 26 of 47
    prolineproline Posts: 188member
    schlack said:
    i think people are continuing to underestimate iPhone SE demand. apple could amp things up if they could release the iPhone 7 early...out of cycle...like in july or august...but perhaps that's not possible at this point.
    Apple can't release the iPhone 7 before September as it will require iOS 10. The key to Apple's success is that they offer new hardware  AND new software- releasing hardware without new software would undermine their ability to market effectively. Every new flagship has come with some major new software- 3D Touch, Apple Pay, TouchID, the 4" screen, and Siri, are the most recent examples. 
    caliai46
  • Reply 27 of 47
    calicali Posts: 3,495member
    elijahg said:
    Why does anyone listen to this idiot? He continually spouts crap that everyone listens to, even if it's proven completely wrong days later.
    Because no one calls them out on their BS. Like how the design rumor guys release fake iPhone shells and when the final product launches no one cares anymore because they've moved onto the hype but the same rumor guys will be back in a few months with new fake iPhone shells/cases and AI will be reporting them.
  • Reply 28 of 47
    chasmchasm Posts: 1,261member
    "Kuo has a proven track record in predicting Apple's future product plans. Most recently, he was first to peg the $400 to$500 pricing range and all of the hardware specifications for Apple's newly launched iPhone SE, which he expects will see 12 million shipments in 2016." That's "a proven track record"? He was wrong on the name (he insisted it would be called the 5se), he missed nearly all of the hardware specs except the A9 chip, and if those reports of the first weekend sales are true, there is zero chance in hell Apple will sell only 12 million of them across the entire year. You guys just ignore it when he (frequently) changes his predictions. Yes, he has definitely scored some good calls -- but he's not an "insider," he changes his predictions all the time as things become more obvious. Maybe review your own articles that tout his predictions from the last year or so and see for yourself. At best, he's an above-average guesser who pays attention to the companies Apple buys, and draws much of his "insider" insight from that. In other words, anyone who pays close attention to that sort of stuff could match or beat his guessing record.
    ai46
  • Reply 29 of 47
    radarthekatradarthekat Posts: 2,989moderator
    Apple's prior year sales are based on its fiscal year, and so we've already seen one quarter of the current year's sales and in that quarter Apple shipped slightly more iPhones than the year earlier first quarter.  Apple has now released a world-beating mid-market phone that will ramp sales in many emerging markets, starting with China.  The company is fully cognizant of the market conditions, it is determined to sell more services which means growing it's installed base, and so I expect Apple to take more steps this year to expand the reach of the iPhone worldwide, and that means ramping sales, not letting them slide.  Time will tell, but a lot of what will happen is firmly under Apple's power to control.
    ai46
  • Reply 30 of 47
    eightzeroeightzero Posts: 2,290member
    At least this didn't have the stupid "breaking" tag. But honestly I wish rumor sites would quit treating Ming-Chi Kuo's research notes as if they came from Tim Cook. It's just guessing based on supply chain noise and tumors.
    It is not a too-mah...
    larrya
  • Reply 31 of 47
    AI2xxxAI2xxx Posts: 38member
    cnocbui said:
    proline said:
    I think he's off base this time. Nobody has seen what a "dual camera system" can do, but adding this or that to the spec sheet is not what drives iPhone demand. Furthermore, the iPhone 7 is 5 months away, which means competitors won't beat it by much- I don't know many people who would switch to Lenovo just because the latter's camera was slightly better for a few weeks. As for the SE, it's a good phone at a good price point- it obviously isn't going to outsell the flagship iPhone 7s, but that doesn't mean there won't be an uptick in sales from it.
    LG G5 has a dual camera.



    The Huawei P9 also uses a dual camera setup:


    irelandcnocbui
  • Reply 32 of 47
    larryalarrya Posts: 543member
    slurpy said:
    "In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. "

    Yeah, because history shows us that all companies need to do is ship products and features before Apple in order to "win", and that Apple customers buy Apple products because of a bullet list of features, not the entire design, experience, package, brand, and ecosystem. 

    There is no fucking way in hell Apple will sell LESS iPhones this year than last year, especially considering they will be on a "tick" cycle with a brand new iPhone body. Kuo is a facking moron, but of course, he will still be considered a "noted" analyst even when his sales projections turn out to be complete horse-shit. 
    The new iPhone will only be sold for what, around 2-months in 2016, and it will be supply-constrained, as usual.  Apple itself says second quarter sales will be down. I don't think he's that crazy. 

    Edit: not sure now whether they use fiscal or calendar year. 
    edited April 2016
  • Reply 33 of 47
    slurpy said:
    "In addition, Kuo said a number of Apple's competitors, including Xiaomi, ZTE and Lenovo, are all planning to launch their own dual-camera smartphone systems, and many of them are expected to beat Apple's "iPhone 7 Plus" to market. "

    Yeah, because history shows us that all companies need to do is ship products and features before Apple in order to "win", and that Apple customers buy Apple products because of a bullet list of features, not the entire design, experience, package, brand, and ecosystem. 

    There is no fucking way in hell Apple will sell LESS iPhones this year than last year, especially considering they will be on a "tick" cycle with a brand new iPhone body. Kuo is a facking moron, but of course, he will still be considered a "noted" analyst even when his sales projections turn out to be complete horse-shit. 
    Kuo, just like Munster, will forever be quoted and considered knowledgeable no matter what.
  • Reply 34 of 47
    I wondered when the Apple Apocalypse was coming but since Kuo said it's 2016, I no longer have to wonder. He's a very informative guy. It must be nice to be able to see into the future with such clarity. One would think if he could see the future so well, he'd be retired wealthy and not have to be bothered with giving his information to investors. He could just corner the market for himself. And silly me, I wake up every morning not knowing what's going to happen an hour ahead of time in my own life. I'd love to hear about what Kuo thinks about Tesla's chances of cornering the electric car market with the Model 3. /s
  • Reply 35 of 47
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    Man, this person just pulls out shit straight from his ass.
    But, for those idiots, failure IS an option, one they take all the time.

    Ming was off by 15M units in late 2014 and early 2015, that's the kind of person we should "trust".

    This is basically a troll bait "analysts report" (sic) made so this person's fucking name stays in the news.
    This person is essentially a narcissist.
  • Reply 36 of 47
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    maestro64 said:

    I tell you not sure who it doing the Right and wrong Tally on this guy, but for the most part this guys does far better or closer to the real numbers than any of the wall street Analysis who are always far more wrong than right, but we also know the wall street analysis create FUD and uncertainty so your big $ investors can make money on the wild swings they cause the stock to take.

    On the dual camera, we all know this feature will really come down to software, and we all know who have the better software which works well. Yeah they may have the feature but will it even work or will they have to wait two years before google updates software.

    He was way way off in 2014 and early 2015 like well, everyone.
    This year, most people were actually pretty close.
    So, not seeing this insight AT ALL.
    asdasd
  • Reply 37 of 47
    mpiratempirate Posts: 8member
    I don't understand the predictions for SE sales - if there were > 3.4MM pre-orders in China alone, how can the total sales for 2016 be "only" 20 MM or less? I'd appreciate someone helping me to understand, wouldn't that indicate the worldwide over an entire year sales would likely exceed 20MM?
  • Reply 38 of 47
    bobschlobbobschlob Posts: 1,074member
    icoco3 said:
    lkrupp said:
    I see “pump and dump” is in full swing again. AAPL has been rising lately so it’s time to dump with the standard predictions of doom. Take the profits and run then buy back after the dump. I’ve learned a lot about how corrupt the securities market is by following AAPL. From strategic leaks, to analyst kickbacks, to paid surveys and polls, to computerized buying and selling, the little guy doesn’t stand a chance.
    The little guy can stay long term and will profit nicely.
    "Long term" and "profit nicely" entirely subjective.
  • Reply 39 of 47
    foggyhillfoggyhill Posts: 4,767member
    mpirate said:
    I don't understand the predictions for SE sales - if there were > 3.4MM pre-orders in China alone, how can the total sales for 2016 be "only" 20 MM or less? I'd appreciate someone helping me to understand, wouldn't that indicate the worldwide over an entire year sales would likely exceed 20MM?
    Doesn't need to make ANY sense, you know, they're ANALysts.

    The 5S that was more expensive and lot less featured sold 30M, that should tell you something about these people.
  • Reply 40 of 47
    fastasleepfastasleep Posts: 2,539member
    At least this didn't have the stupid "breaking" tag. But honestly I wish rumor sites would quit treating Ming-Chi Kuo's research notes as if they came from Tim Cook. It's just guessing based on supply chain noise and tumors.

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