Didi says it has 87% market share in the market for Uber-like private car-hailing in China; Uber’s CEO Travis Kalanick said recently Uber commands 30% to 35% of the Chinese market. Some researchers support Didi’s claim, while others—like London-based researcher Mintel—estimate Didi’s market share of rides to be around 60%.
The Uber CEO isn't shy about doing some dodgy stuff.
Just wanted to mention another observation that some might have missed.
How are these (semi) autonomous vehicles supposed to know where they're going, the best way to get there and the roadway logistics? That would be job one wouldn't it?
Well highly detailed and constantly updated mapping would be the most straightforward way, and maps ain't easy. So what have companies done about it? With Apple and Google it's obvious, we all know about Apple Maps and Google Maps. The car companies aren't dummies tho. Mercedes, Audi, BMW bought Nokia's Here (Navteq). Uber bought DeCarta and a big 'ol chunk of Microsoft's Bing maps. GM has plans to use their own OnStar service to create"MobileEye" maps. Fiat/Chrysler appears to be planning a tie-in with Google and their maps and Ford is rumored to be doing the same. Even China's Alibaba got in the game with their purchase of China's biggest (and officially sanctioned...That's important) map provider AutoNavi.
Are all these map plans from different car companies and ride-sharing services just coincidental? Pretty unlikely. Autonomous ride-sharing services will be here before you know
Now, have you had your 'push Google into a conversation' quota for today?
Just wanted to mention another observation that some might have missed.
How are these (semi) autonomous vehicles supposed to know where they're going, the best way to get there and the roadway logistics? That would be job one wouldn't it?
Well highly detailed and constantly updated mapping would be the most straightforward way, and maps ain't easy. So what have companies done about it? With Apple and Google it's obvious, we all know about Apple Maps and Google Maps. The car companies aren't dummies tho. Mercedes, Audi, BMW bought Nokia's Here (Navteq). Uber bought DeCarta and a big 'ol chunk of Microsoft's Bing maps. GM has plans to use their own OnStar service to create"MobileEye" maps. Fiat/Chrysler appears to be planning a tie-in with Google and their maps and Ford is rumored to be doing the same. Even China's Alibaba got in the game with their purchase of China's biggest (and officially sanctioned...That's important) map provider AutoNavi.
Are all these map plans from different car companies and ride-sharing services just coincidental? Pretty unlikely. Autonomous ride-sharing services will be here before you know
Now, have you had your 'push Google into a conversation' quota for today?
Actually Foggyhill got in before me but know what's even funnier? I mention 12 different companies in one post but the only one you see is Google. They must grab your attention.
Now, have you had your 'push Google into a conversation' quota for today?
Actually Foggyhill got in before me but know what's even funnier? I mention 12 different companies in one post but the only one you see is Google. They must grab your attention.
True, but if Google wasn't one of those, would you be here today?
The probability is low.
Me, on the other hand, I'm just interested in anonymous vehicles.
Now, have you had your 'push Google into a conversation' quota for today?
Actually Foggyhill got in before me but know what's even funnier? I mention 12 different companies in one post but the only one you see is Google. They must grab your attention.
True, but if Google wasn't one of those, would you be here today?
The probability is low.
Me, on the other hand, I'm just interested in anonymous vehicles.
If it wasn't for DED and Roughly Drafted I probably wouldn't be here today. He should get all the thanks.
I also tend to go for less-than-anonymous vehicles myself, unless I'm trying to keep on the down-low with a client visit.
True, but if Google wasn't one of those, would you be here today?
The probability is low.
Me, on the other hand, I'm just interested in anonymous vehicles.
If it wasn't for DED and Roughly Drafted I probably wouldn't be here today. He should get all the thanks.
Nice deflection!
I used to read Roughly Drafted consistently, but I don't remember if I ever registered. I do recall DED having his motorcycle accident.
Asymco is good on cars now, but there isn't as much interest as there is in his dissection of Apple's growth parameters. I recall that you have mixed feelings on Horace.
True, but if Google wasn't one of those, would you be here today?
The probability is low.
Me, on the other hand, I'm just interested in anonymous vehicles.
If it wasn't for DED and Roughly Drafted I probably wouldn't be here today. He should get all the thanks.
Nice deflection!
I used to read Roughly Drafted consistently, but I don't remember if I ever registered. I do recall DED having his motorcycle accident.
Asymco is good on cars now, but there isn't as much interest as there is in his dissection of Apple's growth parameters. I recall that you have mixed feelings on Horace.
You are correct, I don't take Horace at face-value. IMO he sometimes seems to work backward, with the stories ending already determined and only needing to fill in the plot details to get there.
Anyway to get back on topic I had not paid much attention to other Chinese companies and self-driving and so had overlooked Baidu and their plans. You might have known all about it but surely others here are unaware that Baidu has plans to put an electric (semi?) autonomous car on Chinese roads this year. Guess the partner. No peeking!
BMW. Did that play into the reported rejection of Apple as a working partner a couple months back?
I figure Alibaba must be involved in some way too since the only reported Baidu investment in mapping was a few million in IndoorAtlas which would only be for augmenting a full mapping package. For all intents Alibaba (AutoNavi) controls China's commercially available roadmaps as the only sanctioned provider in China AFAIK. Even TomTom works thru AutoNavi.
As mentioned in a few posts, there are many reasons why Apple might want to make such an investment: - Purely as an investment - Foot-in-the door to obtain some information on Chinese car consumers & habits - CarPlay or "car" - Opportunity for collaboration in mapping or similar data - Opportunity for Didi app & Apple Pay integration - Future opportunity for an Apple Car with this company - ...
Perhaps I am the contrarian viewpoint on this thread, but I believe the "truly autonomous" future (where there is no driver needed in the car & it can just come and pick you up as hailed with an app), is many, many years away from a practical reality outside of a few early adopter spots. I am talking 10+ years away. There are simply far too many issues to solve for this to happen in the near/intermediate term - and technology is only one and likely the fastest moving along. Getting autonomy to "90%" good enough is one thing (likely getting close to that from prototype perspective for very well mapped areas), but closing that 10% to cover all of those corner cases is another (accident happens that closes a street, have a cop directing traffic, short term road closure not updated in systems, traffic lights out, ...). Beyond that technology are the regulations (gov't doesn't move too quickly), insurance, and legal implications. All of these things move slowly in the real world.
So I am very skeptical that Apple is focusing on launching a truly autonomous ride-sharing fleet / service as their go-to-market strategy (or even their second strategy). It is possible that Apple could supply electric vehicles to DiDi or other firms where drivers are involved like Uber, and maybe emerging markets are a potential, though doesn't seem to follow Apple's GTM approaches of starting at premium end and work downward.
IMO Apple's car plans are to offer a car for sale to the end user - an "iconic" type car. Apple's ability to charge a premium for their other products is due to end customer "wanting" that product, and appreciates its ecosystem value, and thus willing to pay a premium. There are many areas for improvement with traditional cars that Apple "could" address that would allow them an entry point (interior configuration, new jobs to be done, new materials, production methods, intelligence systems and integration with Apple ecosystem, ...).
gatorguy said: Eventually a large segment of the populace won't have a need to own their own vehicle anymore IMHO.
Have you taken an Uber? I did recently and the car was filthy, smelled like tobacco and the driver's app was completely fouled up on the directions and location. Sorry but I prefer my German luxury car that I have detailed on a weekly basis. Ride share is no better than a public bus. You have to make sure you aren't sitting in someone's spilled beverage or stepping on chewing gum. No thanks.
The information Didi might share with Apple as a condition of Apple's investment will be invaluable in designing the features of a future autonomous car-as-a-service business, and potentially also in determining some aspects of the design of the vehicles.
Ride volumes throughout the day Distance of each ride Number of passengers per ride Ride sharing along a route by multiple disassociated passengers (should this be an option, the way trike rides work throughout SE Asia) Actual routes requested (valuable for optimization of stationing, and ideal placement of recharging depots)
All of this information might have implications for the optimal size of battery packs, how the vehicle interior compartments are laid out, even the ideal size of the vehicles (passenger and cargo capacity and organization) and might even imply multiple different vehicle types to optimize the service for all needs. so there's good reason Apple would want to get in bed with a company like Didi.
Also of interest is the database and transaction-processing capability required to process 11 million rides each day.
gatorguy said: Eventually a large segment of the populace won't have a need to own their own vehicle anymore IMHO.
Have you taken an Uber? I did recently and the car was filthy, smelled like tobacco and the driver's app was completely fouled up on the directions and location. Sorry but I prefer my German luxury car that I have detailed on a weekly basis. Ride share is no better than a public bus. You have to make sure you aren't sitting in someone's spilled beverage or stepping on chewing gum. No thanks.
Nope never used a "private taxi" like Uber. I would hope guys a lot smarter than me could figure out how to clean one between rides if they were to be autonomous.
I used to read Roughly Drafted consistently, but I don't remember if I ever registered. I do recall DED having his motorcycle accident.
Asymco is good on cars now, but there isn't as much interest as there is in his dissection of Apple's growth parameters. I recall that you have mixed feelings on Horace.
You are correct, I don't take Horace at face-value. IMO he sometimes seems to work backward, with the stories ending already determined and only needing to fill in the plot details to get there.
Anyway to get back on topic I had not paid much attention to other Chinese companies and self-driving and so had overlooked Baidu and their plans. You might have known all about it but surely others here are unaware that Baidu has plans to put an electric (semi?) autonomous car on Chinese roads this year. Guess the partner. No peeking!
BMW. Did that play into the reported rejection of Apple as a working partner a couple months back?
I figure Alibaba must be involved in some way too since the only reported Baidu investment in mapping was a few million in IndoorAtlas which would only be for augmenting a full mapping package. For all intents Alibaba (AutoNavi) controls China's commercially available roadmaps as the only sanctioned provider in China AFAIK. Even TomTom works thru AutoNavi.
Nope, I haven't been following the rideshare movement at all.
It does seem to me that China would benefit from satisfying the transportation needs of the urban areas this way rather than the now orthodox system in the U.S., wide car ownership, which is slowly being disrupted by Uber, and Lyft, et al. China will still see a massive growth in the manufacture of automobiles, but the target vehicles for Uber and Lyft would be EV's significantly more robust in design and manufacture for a long lifecycle at lower maintenance than those designs for individual car ownership. Reducing car ownership frees up income for consumption elsewhere in the economy, and likely reduces the growth of oil imports, so there is no net negative for China to pursue this.
Elon would argue that both ownership and rideshare favor electric vehicles, so Tesla and Gigafactory will see increased business either way, and I expect that China will be pushing hard to create the manufacturing base to ship EV's worldwide and capture marketshare. The traditional manufacturers will have a mix of vehicles, and only a small portion of those delivered into the U.S. market will be autonomous for the foreseeable future. Most all of the autonomous vehicles that we see in the next decade will be delivered by partnerships of auto manufacturers and tech companies, for the simple reason that it is difficult to have the experience in both. Apple may or may not be attempting to buck that trend, or may not actually deliver a vehicle at all, but the billion dollar investment makes that point that they are interested.
It may be that China will take the lead in autonomous vehicles with relaxed regulation, so of course, any potential vehicle manufacturer, including Apple, would have a future view of the first world markets by observing or participating in China.
gatorguy said: Nope never used a "private taxi" like Uber. I would hope guys a lot smarter than me could figure out how to clean one between rides if they were to be autonomous.
I don't get the math either. Let's say you live 10-15 miles from your office. That would probably cost around $15 a day with a ride share, assuming you did not have to drop the kids off at school or go out for lunch. Then you also need to go to the grocery store and perhaps errand shopping on the weekend. Maybe you average around $18 per day in ride share expenses. That would run you more than $500 a month. You can lease a nice mid-range car for less, including insurance, fuel or charge. Not to mention the freedom and privacy that a personal car offers.
Just wanted to mention another observation that some might have missed.
How are these (semi) autonomous vehicles supposed to know where they're going, the best way to get there and the roadway logistics? That would be job one wouldn't it?
Well highly detailed and constantly updated mapping would be the most straightforward way, and maps ain't easy. So what have companies done about it? With Apple and Google it's obvious, we all know about Apple Maps and Google Maps. The car companies aren't dummies tho. Mercedes, Audi, BMW bought Nokia's Here (Navteq). Uber bought DeCarta and a big 'ol chunk of Microsoft's Bing maps. GM has plans to use their own OnStar service to create"MobileEye" maps. Fiat/Chrysler appears to be planning a tie-in with Google and their maps and Ford is rumored to be doing the same. Even China's Alibaba got in the game with their purchase of China's biggest (and officially sanctioned...That's important) map provider AutoNavi.
Are all these map plans from different car companies and ride-sharing services just coincidental? Pretty unlikely. Autonomous ride-sharing services will be here before you know
Now, have you had your 'push Google into a conversation' quota for today?
That guy desingeniously "wonders" why I bitched him out? Well, there you go. Like a weasel coming out of his hole at the mention of Google.
Just wanted to mention another observation that some might have missed.
How are these (semi) autonomous vehicles supposed to know where they're going, the best way to get there and the roadway logistics? That would be job one wouldn't it?
Well highly detailed and constantly updated mapping would be the most straightforward way, and maps ain't easy. So what have companies done about it? With Apple and Google it's obvious, we all know about Apple Maps and Google Maps. The car companies aren't dummies tho. Mercedes, Audi, BMW bought Nokia's Here (Navteq). Uber bought DeCarta and a big 'ol chunk of Microsoft's Bing maps. GM has plans to use their own OnStar service to create"MobileEye" maps. Fiat/Chrysler appears to be planning a tie-in with Google and their maps and Ford is rumored to be doing the same. Even China's Alibaba got in the game with their purchase of China's biggest (and officially sanctioned...That's important) map provider AutoNavi.
Are all these map plans from different car companies and ride-sharing services just coincidental? Pretty unlikely. Autonomous ride-sharing services will be here before you know
Now, have you had your 'push Google into a conversation' quota for today?
That guy desingeniously "wonders" why I bitched him out? Well, there you go. Like a weasel coming out of his hole at the mention of Google.
Oh your world is simply a wondrous place isn't it?
BTW I wasn't aware you "bitched me out" in the first place. LOL! When my wife does it she generally offers some semblance of a cogent complaint. To me that's a bitching out. When my son goes off he frequently has no point to make at all, just mad in general. I call that a tantrum.
gatorguy said: Nope never used a "private taxi" like Uber. I would hope guys a lot smarter than me could figure out how to clean one between rides if they were to be autonomous.
I don't get the math either. Let's say you live 10-15 miles from your office. That would probably cost around $15 a day with a ride share, assuming you did not have to drop the kids off at school or go out for lunch. Then you also need to go to the grocery store and perhaps errand shopping on the weekend. Maybe you average around $18 per day in ride share expenses. That would run you more than $500 a month. You can lease a nice mid-range car for less, including insurance, fuel or charge. Not to mention the freedom and privacy that a personal car offers.
The economics of Uber is not favorable in low density areas that are parking rich. I live in one of those low density areas, so driving an owned vehicle is very economical. My fixed cost for an older vehicle is $2.00 a day for insurance, and $0.12 a mile for fuel; maintenance is a variable cost. Imagine how inexpensive an older EV would be in the future.
Comments
Now, have you had your 'push Google into a conversation' quota for today?
The probability is low.
Me, on the other hand, I'm just interested in anonymous vehicles.
I also tend to go for less-than-anonymous vehicles myself, unless I'm trying to keep on the down-low with a client visit.
I used to read Roughly Drafted consistently, but I don't remember if I ever registered. I do recall DED having his motorcycle accident.
Asymco is good on cars now, but there isn't as much interest as there is in his dissection of Apple's growth parameters. I recall that you have mixed feelings on Horace.
Anyway to get back on topic I had not paid much attention to other Chinese companies and self-driving and so had overlooked Baidu and their plans. You might have known all about it but surely others here are unaware that Baidu has plans to put an electric (semi?) autonomous car on Chinese roads this year. Guess the partner. No peeking!
BMW.
Did that play into the reported rejection of Apple as a working partner a couple months back?
I figure Alibaba must be involved in some way too since the only reported Baidu investment in mapping was a few million in IndoorAtlas which would only be for augmenting a full mapping package. For all intents Alibaba (AutoNavi) controls China's commercially available roadmaps as the only sanctioned provider in China AFAIK. Even TomTom works thru AutoNavi.
- Purely as an investment
- Foot-in-the door to obtain some information on Chinese car consumers & habits - CarPlay or "car"
- Opportunity for collaboration in mapping or similar data
- Opportunity for Didi app & Apple Pay integration
- Future opportunity for an Apple Car with this company
- ...
Perhaps I am the contrarian viewpoint on this thread, but I believe the "truly autonomous" future (where there is no driver needed in the car & it can just come and pick you up as hailed with an app), is many, many years away from a practical reality outside of a few early adopter spots. I am talking 10+ years away. There are simply far too many issues to solve for this to happen in the near/intermediate term - and technology is only one and likely the fastest moving along. Getting autonomy to "90%" good enough is one thing (likely getting close to that from prototype perspective for very well mapped areas), but closing that 10% to cover all of those corner cases is another (accident happens that closes a street, have a cop directing traffic, short term road closure not updated in systems, traffic lights out, ...). Beyond that technology are the regulations (gov't doesn't move too quickly), insurance, and legal implications. All of these things move slowly in the real world.
So I am very skeptical that Apple is focusing on launching a truly autonomous ride-sharing fleet / service as their go-to-market strategy (or even their second strategy). It is possible that Apple could supply electric vehicles to DiDi or other firms where drivers are involved like Uber, and maybe emerging markets are a potential, though doesn't seem to follow Apple's GTM approaches of starting at premium end and work downward.
IMO Apple's car plans are to offer a car for sale to the end user - an "iconic" type car. Apple's ability to charge a premium for their other products is due to end customer "wanting" that product, and appreciates its ecosystem value, and thus willing to pay a premium. There are many areas for improvement with traditional cars that Apple "could" address that would allow them an entry point (interior configuration, new jobs to be done, new materials, production methods, intelligence systems and integration with Apple ecosystem, ...).
Also of interest is the database and transaction-processing capability required to process 11 million rides each day.
It does seem to me that China would benefit from satisfying the transportation needs of the urban areas this way rather than the now orthodox system in the U.S., wide car ownership, which is slowly being disrupted by Uber, and Lyft, et al. China will still see a massive growth in the manufacture of automobiles, but the target vehicles for Uber and Lyft would be EV's significantly more robust in design and manufacture for a long lifecycle at lower maintenance than those designs for individual car ownership. Reducing car ownership frees up income for consumption elsewhere in the economy, and likely reduces the growth of oil imports, so there is no net negative for China to pursue this.
Elon would argue that both ownership and rideshare favor electric vehicles, so Tesla and Gigafactory will see increased business either way, and I expect that China will be pushing hard to create the manufacturing base to ship EV's worldwide and capture marketshare. The traditional manufacturers will have a mix of vehicles, and only a small portion of those delivered into the U.S. market will be autonomous for the foreseeable future. Most all of the autonomous vehicles that we see in the next decade will be delivered by partnerships of auto manufacturers and tech companies, for the simple reason that it is difficult to have the experience in both. Apple may or may not be attempting to buck that trend, or may not actually deliver a vehicle at all, but the billion dollar investment makes that point that they are interested.
It may be that China will take the lead in autonomous vehicles with relaxed regulation, so of course, any potential vehicle manufacturer, including Apple, would have a future view of the first world markets by observing or participating in China.
Like a weasel coming out of his hole at the mention of Google.
BTW I wasn't aware you "bitched me out" in the first place. LOL! When my wife does it she generally offers some semblance of a cogent complaint. To me that's a bitching out. When my son goes off he frequently has no point to make at all, just mad in general. I call that a tantrum.